Four GOP candidates fail to make Virginia primary ballot

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the implications of four GOP candidates—Santorum, Perry, Huntsman, and Gingrich—being left off the Virginia primary ballot due to legal rulings and procedural issues. Participants explore the potential effects on voter behavior, candidate support, and the overall primary process, with references to polling data and candidate endorsements.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question whether the absence of Santorum, Perry, Huntsman, and Gingrich will affect voter turnout or lead to strategic voting for candidates like Romney or Paul.
  • Others note that Virginia state law prohibits write-in candidates in primary elections, complicating the situation for voters.
  • Several participants highlight that the candidates were aware of the rules and failed to meet the necessary requirements for ballot inclusion.
  • There is speculation about the potential for a runaway primary if Romney performs well in upcoming contests, possibly discouraging support for other candidates.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the significance of Huntsman and Perry in the race, predicting their withdrawal after the South Carolina primary.
  • Discussion includes varying opinions on Ron Paul's appeal to younger voters, with some arguing he has significant support compared to other Republicans.
  • Concerns are raised about the implications if all candidates were to fail to make the ballot, including the lack of a primary election.
  • Participants discuss the relevance of issues like SOPA in the context of the candidates' platforms and voter appeal.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of opinions, with no clear consensus on the impact of the candidates' absence from the ballot or the dynamics of the primary process. Multiple competing views remain regarding voter behavior and candidate viability.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the uncertainty surrounding the appeals process and the potential for changing voter sentiments as the primaries progress. The discussion reflects a range of assumptions about voter behavior and candidate strategies.

Who May Find This Useful

Readers interested in political strategy, electoral processes, and the dynamics of primary elections may find this discussion relevant.

Evo
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Assuming the judge's ruling remains, will having Santorum, Perry, Hunstman & Gingrich left off of the VA primary ballot have any effect? The most recent poll I could find, Dec 21st, showed Gingrich leading Romney, with the other candidates way behind.

Gingrich has a 30 percent to 25 percent lead over Romney, but both are well above the rest of the pack, none of whom holds more than 9 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac University poll

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70743.html#ixzz1jSccjyk5
Will people throw their votes to a candidate they don't want or stay away? Or do you think they will be allowed on?

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/13/politics/virginia-gop-primary-ballot/index.html
 
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The judge seemed fair. That leaves Romney and Paul as the primary candidates, neither of which are going to be real popular among the right IMO. Will conservatives stay home?

The four candidates "knew the rules in Virginia many months ago," the judge wrote in his ruling. "In essence, they played the game, lost, and then complained that the rules were unfair."
 
And:

Virginia state law specifically prohibits voters from writing in candidates not on the ballot in primary elections.
Huntsman and Santorum did not file petitions with the Virginia State Board of Elections that would have allowed them a place in the state's primary. Gingrich and Perry filed petitions that were rejected by the Republican Party of Virginia for not meeting requirements.

The candidates knew that the people circulating their election petitions had to be residents of VA, and ignored that requirement. According the the AG, the decision will likely be appealed, but appeals can take time. Does that leave the people of VA ample time to conduct an orderly primary?
 
Nothing else in US politics seems to be timely and orderly these days, so why should the VA primary be any different?

But to an outsider it looks like a non-issue. The rules were clear enough but people didn't follow them. Game over.
 
AlephZero said:
Nothing else in US politics seems to be timely and orderly these days, so why should the VA primary be any different?

But to an outsider it looks like a non-issue. The rules were clear enough but people didn't follow them. Game over.
And it wasn't the VA government that disqualified the candidates - it was the VA state GOP. Their own party disqualified them. Appealing to the courts is a non-starter if their own party has kept them off the ballot.
 
Evo said:
Assuming the judge's ruling remains, will having Santorum, Perry, Hunstman & Gingrich left off of the VA primary ballot have any effect? The most recent poll I could find, Dec 21st, showed Gingrich leading Romney, with the other candidates way behind.

Will people throw their votes to a candidate they don't want or stay away? Or do you think they will be allowed on?

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/13/politics/virginia-gop-primary-ballot/index.html

Well my personal opinion is that some of them won't matter. Namely huntman and Perry. I expect both of them to drop out of the race after the South Carolina primary.
The other two might not even matter either, I'm betting that if Romney wins South Carolina (which I think he will), it will go a long way to discouraging voters in other state primaries, and make this a run-a-way primary. At which point I think an appeal will be dropped.
 
JonDE said:
Well my personal opinion is that some of them won't matter. Namely huntman and Perry. I expect both of them to drop out of the race after the South Carolina primary.
The other two might not even matter either, I'm betting that if Romney wins South Carolina (which I think he will), it will go a long way to discouraging voters in other state primaries, and make this a run-a-way primary. At which point I think an appeal will be dropped.

Good call, I believe huntsman just dropped out and endorsed romney...good, the more support for romney, the more chance obama has to stay in office. ...since the only republican that can beat obama is ron paul. Obama had the youth vote last election...Ron Paul has a vast youth following too.
 
LearninDaMath said:
Good call, I believe huntsman just dropped out and endorsed romney...good, the more support for romney, the more chance obama has to stay in office. ...since the only republican that can beat obama is ron paul. Obama had the youth vote last election...Ron Paul has a vast youth following too.

I'm not sure I'd call Ron Paul's supporters a "vast youth following", but I do think he'll have more support among the youth than most Republicans. For one thing, unlike most Republicans, Ron Paul is against SOPA. That will certainly help get him the youth vote.
 
Char. Limit said:
I'm not sure I'd call Ron Paul's supporters a "vast youth following", but I do think he'll have more support among the youth than most Republicans. For one thing, unlike most Republicans, Ron Paul is against SOPA. That will certainly help get him the youth vote.


Perhaps he doesn't have the vast youth vote that Obama had last election, but Ron has, without question, the highest youth vote of any of his Republican opponents. And by "highest," I don't mean the Cannibus vote :) ,although he does have that too!

Ron had 48 percent of the youth vote to Romney's 14 percent in Iowa and in New Hampshire, Ron had 47 percent of the youth vote to Romney's 24 percent. Although, I believe I read that the youth vote only accounts for 15 percent of eligible voters...

EDIT:

P.S.

I thought of a good point paul should bring up at the next debate (should someone decide to criticize him). If you can't remember to get the required signatures to contend in an important primary, how can the american people trust you'll remember to accomplish the necessary steps required for the Presidential election ballot? ...lol that probably is not a technically valid argument, considering I have no idea what steps are necessary in order to appear on the presidential election ballot..but i'd find it funny if ron paul said something along those lines lol
 
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  • #10
What would happen if ALL the candidates failed to make the ballot?
 
  • #11
Alfi said:
What would happen if ALL the candidates failed to make the ballot?
That would be funny.
 
  • #12
Evo said:
That would be funny.
Especially since the VA GOP (edit: Va state law) does not allow write-ins in a primary. So no candidates - no primary.
 
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  • #13
Char. Limit said:
I'm not sure I'd call Ron Paul's supporters a "vast youth following", but I do think he'll have more support among the youth than most Republicans. For one thing, unlike most Republicans, Ron Paul is against SOPA. That will certainly help get him the youth vote.

SOPA/PIPA isn't a partisian issue. It's pretty well split between the parties - moderates supporting it and the extremes of both parties against it. (according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_legislators_who_support_SOPA_or_PIPA - there's 16 D sponsors and 15 R sponsors for SOPA and PIPA is similarly split.) Claiming that 'most Republicans' support SOPA is only accurate if you also include that 'most democrats' support it as well. (However, I think it's becoming increasingly evident that neither bill is going to pass)

I haven't actually heard any comments regarding SOPA from Romney or Santorum. Has anyone seen statements from them? It could actually be a hot button during these primaries.
 
  • #14
Evo said:
That would be funny.

yes it would ... and no, it would not.
Is it a possibility ?



what would happen?
just curious.?
 
  • #15
Note that Perry and Hunstman have dropped out of the contest.

Santorum and Gingrich are still in. Gingrich won SC GOP primary with 40% of the votes as compared to 28% for Romney, 17% for Santorum and 13% for Ron Paul.
 
  • #16
mege said:
I haven't actually heard any comments regarding SOPA from Romney or Santorum. Has anyone seen statements from them? It could actually be a hot button during these primaries.
Apparently all four remaining candidates oppose it. For example, http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/GOP-Debate-Internet/2012/01/19/id/424827. Even if they were split, it's too narrow and too technical an issue, and it appeared way too early to make much of a difference.

The Daily Show replayed some clips from hearings on SOPA and PIPA, showing how utterly ignorant our congresscritters are with regard to technical matters and how utterly proud they are of that ignorance. Critters from both parties spouted words along the lines of "I'm not a nerd, so I don't understand this stuff."
 
  • #17
I just saw this and felt it would be amusing to post here The writer is describing how Gingrich needs Santorum to drop out of the race so he can sweep the evangelical states, including
The need to coalesce evangelical voters becomes even more critical on Super Tuesday when several of the states holding contests have amongst the largest evangelical populations in the nation. In 2008, 46 percent of the voters in the [bVirginia Republican primary identified as evangelical.
 

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