COVID Get Vaccinated Against the Covid Delta Variant

[Astronuc]

The rate of children and teens hospitalized because of the Coronavirus increased nearly five times in mid-August—and 10 times, for children under four—the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported in two key studies released Friday, which also showed the worst rates of children struggling with the disease happening in the states with lower vaccination rates.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kimber...y-almost-5-times-cdc-reports/?sh=125ddc501b30

The rate of children with Coronavirus who end up hospitalized is 49.7 per 100,000 children as of August 14, with the highest rate of hospitalizations among kids under the age of 4 (69%) followed by teens between the ages of 12-17 (64%).

Hospitalizations began to climb due to the spread of the delta variant in mid-August, when many students returned to school, and children and teen hospitalizations increased nearly five times mid-August compared to the end of July, while hospitalizations for children under the age of 4 increased 10 times during the same period.

The new studies follow a record-breaking month for U.S. children hospitalizations, with 330 children admitted daily between August 20 and August 26, according to the CDC. The rise in hospitalizations coincide with the return to school for many students along with the rising spread of the delta variant in all states throughout the U.S.

 

[atyy]

Interestingly a recent study in Bahrain showed, as far as preventing death is concerned, there was some evidence of all the vaccines they tried the much-maligned in Australia, AZ vaccine, was the most effective:
https://economynext.com/vaccines-wo...-got-sinopharm-vs-pfizer-bahrain-study-85458/

I dearly would like to see the journal preprint, but it just goes to show this pandemic is constantly throwing up surprises.

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-828021/v1
Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 post-vaccination breakthrough infections in association with vaccines and the emergence of variants in Bahrain
Manaf AlQahtani, Sujoy Bhattacharyya, Abdulla Alawadi, Hamad Al Mahmeed, Jaleela Al Sayed, Jessica Justman, Wafaa M. El-Sadr, Jack Hidary, Siddhartha Mukherjee

Their data are not purely Delta, but contain a lot of Delta. In terms of naive numbers, AZ turned out the best in their comparison, but I would guess it's not statistically different from Pfizer. While they have data on Sinopharm, Pfizer, Sputnik and AZ, they only did statistical tests comparing Sinopharm and Pfizer.

They report odds ratios for various comparisons, rather than vaccine efficacy. But it's interesting to have a vaccine efficacy number for our rough comparison. In Table 4 (p11), they report that the death rates among people above 50 who are unvaccinated (37.17 per 100,000), Sinopharm vaccinated (5.45) and Pfizer vaccinated (0.96), which corresponds roughly to Sinopharm VE ~ 85%, Pfizer ~97%.

 

[bhobba]

Oh yes. In Aus, when they talk about vaccination rates, several think tanks say the rates needed to start opening up include children under 12. No vaccine has been approved for that, but they think that is what is needed with Delta.

To me, it looks like we are going to need vaccination rates about the same as diseases such as Whooping Cough, which in Aus is about 94%. But people are slack about getting boosters when over 20 - under 20 No-Jab, No Pay applies. I had my last booster about 30 years ago. My sister got it nearly 30 years ago while pregnant - the worst time of all to get it. They were apprehensive about the effect on the baby.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

In terms of naive numbers, AZ turned out the best in their comparison, but I would guess it's not statistically different from Pfizer.

That would be my guess as well. From UK data, both are very effective against hospitalisation and death, even against Delta.

Thanks
Bill

 

[.Scott]

If you have already had your 2 mRNA vaccinations, would a Delta infection be a good booster against other Covid-19 variants?

I would claim that the objective is to have a world population that is as exposed to COVID-19 as it is to (other) seasonal flu viruses - so that a COVID-19 infection is no longer an uncommonly lethal threat or one that challenges health care resources any more than the seasonal flu.

Here is my reasoning:
Given that objective, I would rather my first encounter with the actual COVID-19 be sooner rather than later for two reasons:
1) Sooner means my vaccination is still strong - and my reaction to the the virus should not be exceptionally challenging.
2) Sooner means the Delta variant, and the mRNA vaccines provide protection against that variant.

If I get Delta soon, then when something like lambda comes along, my immune system will have seen many lambda components - even though that prominent spike protein won't be one of them.

On the other had, if I dodge Delta, something like lambda could completely blind-side my immune system.

 

[atyy]

If you have already had your 2 mRNA vaccinations, would a Delta infection be a good booster against other Covid-19 variants?

On the other had, if I dodge Delta, something like lambda could completely blind-side my immune system.

Here is a similar discussion: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58270098. However, it is important to note that it is in the context of the UK, where vaccination and seropositivity rates are much higher than the US, whereas in the certain parts of the US, hospital systems are still under pressure, and it remains important to reduce transmission. Also, there are still deaths of fully vaccinated people who are at higher risk, so such people should continue to take the necessary precautions and a booster if their local health authority makes it available to them. In general, for an endemic virus, the idea is not to get infected deliberately, but rather to take precautions against infection (wash hands, people should not go to work when sick etc), but not to get too worried if one gets sick. Also, lambda and recent new variants are not expected to escape vaccine protection against severe disease, even if the vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies protect less against infection; this is because there are other components of the immune response that are relatively resistant to variants.

 

[bhobba]

If I get Delta soon, then when something like lambda comes along, my immune system will have seen many lambda components - even though that prominent spike protein won't be one of them.

If you got Delta when double vaccinated, it has been shown your immunity to Covid infection is strengthened. But deliberately doing it is a risky strategy because you may, for example, have diabetes and not know it. In such a case, your chance of dying, while still much lower than not being vaccinated, has risen significantly. I have been saying throughout the pandemic that everyone should get a thorough physical, including checking vitamin D levels. That will give you a good idea of your risk, some of which you can do something about - e.g. bring vitamin D levels to what is these days considered normal. Normal has been raised a bit over recent years, but that is another story (previously 30 was considered OK - but is now mildly deficient):
https://www.racgp.org.au/afpbackissues/2008/200812/200812stroud.pdf

Thanks
Bill

 

[artis]

@.Scott I'd say that going out licking door knobs and randomly kissing strangers just to "unlock" next level immunity is probably a bad idea as besides Covid there are the "regular" viruses out there that everyone now seems to have forgotten about.
I think with full vaccination or previous infection (in case one has good level of antibodies) one should simply go out and live a normal life and then if one gets the virus again it's simply destiny.
I had a previous infection I am still being cautious but not to the point where I'm paranoid, stress is actually a health hazard.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

One interesting side note I've learned in all of this: The average body temperature in the US is dropping.
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-n...mperature-has-decreased-in-united-states.html

 

[atyy]

One interesting side note I've learned in all of this: The average body temperature in the US is dropping.
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-n...mperature-has-decreased-in-united-states.html

Yeah, I learned that when we had semi-lockdown last year. My employer instructed us to take our temperature every day. And my measurements dropped each day - so I wondered if lockdown causes temperatures to drop, and googled and found that article you linked. But when I finally started having temperatures below 35C, I thought it must be the digital thermometer. So I got a new "mercury" thermometer (no mercury, it's some other non-toxic substance), and my temperature went back up to 36.4C. The digital thermometer stopped functioning shortly after.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yeah, I learned that when we had semi-lockdown last year. My employer instructed us to take our temperature every day. And my measurements dropped each day - so I wondered if lockdown causes temperatures to drop, and googled and found that article you linked. But when I finally started having temperatures below 35C, I thought it must be the digital thermometer. So I got a new "mercury" thermometer (no mercury, it's some other non-toxic substance), and my temperature went back up to 36.4C. The digital thermometer stopped functioning shortly after.

It first came to my attention using a liquid thermometer at home for Covid. When I was a kid I was always at 98.6 unless I was sick. But now I never seem to get much above 97. At first I assumed it was the medication I'm taking. But when visiting customer sites where they take everyone's temp, I became aware of the fact that other people's temps were low too. I started asking the people taking the temps and soon it became clear that almost everyone was low! One women didn't even know that the average temp is supposed to be 98.6 because [in her words] nobody is that high.

 

[artis]

So you guys are saying we are cooling in the midst of global warming? I guess nature likes balance.
It's funny @Ivan Seeking but the difference between 98.6 and 97 F is about the same the global average temp has risen since industrial revolution...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So you guys are saying we are cooling in the midst of global warming? I guess nature likes balance.
It's funny @Ivan Seeking but the difference between 98.6 and 97 F is about the same the global average temp has risen since industrial revolution...

Haha, and here I thought global warming was due to pirates. All this time the problem has been us!

Stop climate change: Go Endothermic!

They say this in the linked reference

The researchers determined that the body temperature of men born in the early to mid-1990s is on average 1.06 F lower than that of men born in the early 1800s. Similarly, they determined that the body temperature of women born in the early to mid-1990s is on average 0.58 F lower than that of women born in the 1890s. These calculations correspond to a decrease in body temperature of 0.05 F every decade.

Of course this is getting way off topic now. But I noticed it because of Covid. A quick search revealed it's true!

 

[.Scott]

@.Scott I'd say that going out licking door knobs and randomly kissing strangers just to "unlock" next level immunity is probably a bad idea as besides Covid there are the "regular" viruses out there that everyone now seems to have forgotten about.

Covid-19 is known to spread by respiration but is only presumed to spread by fomites. So licking door knobs would be unreliable at best. It's not even clear whether kissing would work. But asking them to sing for you ..
What keeps Covid from being a "regular virus" is that it is very unlike what our immune system have been trained for. The point behind catching Delta would be to relegate it to the status of a "regular virus".

I think with full vaccination or previous infection (in case one has good level of antibodies) one should simply go out and live a normal life and then if one gets the virus again it's simply destiny.
I had a previous infection I am still being cautious but not to the point where I'm paranoid, stress is actually a health hazard.

"If you don't do the choosing, life will choose for you, and it may not be the choice you want". - Robert N. Anthony

 

[.Scott]

If you got Delta when double vaccinated, it has been shown your immunity to Covid infection is strengthened. But deliberately doing it is a risky strategy because you may, for example, have diabetes and not know it. In such a case, your chance of dying, while still much lower than not being vaccinated, has risen significantly.

I believe your Math is incomplete. You are comparing a 100% chance of getting Delta while recently vaccinated against an unspecified chance of getting any variant at any time.

I was actually going to try to list off the decision-making Math here - but it gets pretty complicated pretty fast. For examples: You would need to model your vaccination effectiveness, cross-variant immunity effectiveness, and risk of infection as functions of time. And there is value in delaying the inevitable.

You say I might have a risk factor and not know it. But if I don't know it, how much incentive will I have over the next several years to avoid COVID-19 - or any other infection I may be vulnerable to. Given that situation, it might still be better to get it now. If the lethality now versus later is 0.4 vs. 0.9, better to get it now. If it's 0.94 vs. 0.99, better to delay as long as possible. Of course, that doesn't factor in one's personal value of time. If you only want to make it to the end of this year to complete your bucket list, then avoid COVID.

A major factor is the likelihood of avoiding COVID completely. If you know you are at very high risk even when vaccinated, then this is the option for you.

And until recently, is was the strategy for Australians as well. Delta has made that strategy very difficult.

Besides, my HbA1c is 4.9.

 

[.Scott]

Here is a similar discussion: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58270098. However, it is important to note that it is in the context of the UK, where vaccination and seropositivity rates are much higher than the US, whereas in the certain parts of the US, hospital systems are still under pressure, and it remains important to reduce transmission.

In New England, the vaccination rate is roughly 70% and hospitals are not overly strained by COVID.
This is in great contrast to south-eastern US.

Also, there are still deaths of fully vaccinated people who are at higher risk, so such people should continue to take the necessary precautions and a booster if their local health authority makes it available to them.

People at very high risk need to take exceptional measures to avoid Delta. If society decides to assist them at the "endemic" level (not just their personal quarantine level), then we would need to talk about how to very reliably eliminate Delta ASAP - for example by rapidly spreading the infection while the vulnerable are isolated. I would not recommend that.

In general, for an endemic virus, the idea is not to get infected deliberately, but rather to take precautions against infection (wash hands, people should not go to work when sick etc), but not to get too worried if one gets sick.

But this is not the general case. We have a situation where most of the population has a very low "breadth" (to use the term from the article you cited) of immunization - limited to just one protein.

Also, lambda and recent new variants are not expected to escape vaccine protection against severe disease, even if the vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies protect less against infection; this is because there are other components of the immune response that are relatively resistant to variants.

They won't escape once the "breadth" issue has been addressed - through infection or through a different vaccine.

Yes, there are two or three immune system mechanisms that respond to the vaccination - antibodies, T-Cells, and perhaps other lymphocytes. But with the mRNA vaccinations only, all of them are unvaccinated for any future variant with an unrecognized spike protein.

 

[atyy]

But this is not the general case. We have a situation where most of the population has a very low "breadth" (to use the term from the article you cited) of immunization - limited to just one protein.

It is true that immunization with more antigens could be beneficial in the longer term, but even the one protein used for immunization (in the current Pfizer vaccine) corresponds to many epitopes, and memory B and T cells have the ability to recognize variants. This is likely why protection against severe disease caused by variants has remained either unchanged or fallen much less compared to the decreased protection against infection.

 

[bhobba]

A major factor is the likelihood of avoiding COVID completely. If you know you are at very high risk even when vaccinated, then this is the option for you. And until recently, is was the strategy for Australians as well. Delta has made that strategy very difficult.

Glug glug for Aussies - and don't I know it. It's fine right now in Brisbane, where I live, but it will not last - it is just a matter of time.

The strategy now in NSW and Victoria, where it is out of control with an R of about 1.3 (the highest of just about any other country), is to get vaccinated, vaccinate and vaccinate some more. They have achieved over 70% first doses in NSW and soon will be 80% and hopefully higher. It is expected over 80% two doses by November. That must bring R down - with 70% and just 1 dose at 30% efficiency, my calculation shows it will be below 1 and getting better as more get second doses, and first doses rise above 80%. I am hopeful it soon will be under control here in Aus. But people need to wake up. Queensland only has 53% first doses, and my sister is only getting vaccinated reluctantly. I try to explain the importance, but she says, what do you know.

Immunologists are divided on if we can eradicate it. My calculations indicate 95% vaccination and a third dose could do it - but that is a tough target. Most believe we will have to live with it but take precautions. I wish we would look more at Taiwan, which already has R below 1 and starting from virtually zero is immunising fast - so fast it approved its own homegrown vaccine (Medigen - 600,000 doses administered in a week alone) before stage 3 trials were completed:
https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/why-taiwan-is-beating-covid-19-again/

10 million first doses already - waiting for first doses to be completed before concentrating on second doses. Australia could learn a thing or two from that.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

Immunologists are divided on if we can eradicate it. My calculations indicate 95% vaccination and a third dose could do it - but that is a tough target. Most believe we will have to live with it but take precautions.

For eradication, one also has to take into account that protection from infection declines over time due to falling antibody levels and viral mutations. It seems that protection from severe disease is quite steady despite that, so I'm in the live with it camp. I think that if the vaccination rate approaches 100% in vulnerable groups, that the precautions we take might not have to be much more than for flu.

Rather amazingly, Portugal is reporting that 99% of people aged above 65 have been fully vaccinated (both doses)!
https://covid19.min-saude.pt/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Relato%CC%81rio-de-Vacinac%CC%A7a%CC%83o-n.o-29.pdf

 

[artis]

a rather reasonable assessment of the latest situation

 

[pinball1970]

PHE document with Variant data Feb 1st to Aug 15th

https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1012644/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf

Page 23 gives the summary for UK deaths under and over 50s from Covid Vaccinated vs unvaccinated.

One comparison, under 50 group, 27 deaths double vaccinated vs 72 deaths not vaccinated, the vaccinated group from 18-50 is still much bigger than the unvaccinated group.

At risk under 50 groups were vaccinated near first this means it is mainly healthy under 50s are dying.

I am also assuming that not many of those deaths were children. 25 youngsters died in the first year (link below) no vaccine till December, treatment was not as fine tuned and ICU was under much more stress.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...mic-claimed-lives-of-25-youngsters-in-england

 

[Laroxe]

a rather reasonable assessment of the latest situation

I'm disappointed with Dr Campbell in this video, what's a survey of people without a clue, supposed to mean? The fact is that the majority of virologists dismiss this idea, and geneticists have found no evidence of manipulation, despite the political pressure from the USA. Investigations by an international team of experts from the WHO and the various intelligence agencies from around the world, no evidence has been found or in fact any sensible motive. Remember at the G7 meeting when Joe Biden tried and failed to get support to pressure China.

I increasingly think that most of the discussions about disease control are based on the illusion that we can have a far greater influence on the behaviour of this pandemic than is warranted. Virtually all the problems we have seen, have in fact been seen before and shouldn't really have been a surprise.

The vaccine development was indeed impressive, largely because it was based on pre-existing research and a huge financial investment. In fact, a large majority of scientists were surprised at the results of the efficacy trials, which were extremely impressive. To be fair some virologists did sound a note of caution, this is an RNA virus with a large complex genome, RNA viruses replicate quickly but because of the limitations in RNA, exist quite close to the level of evolutionary possibilities. There is little room for genetic changes that are non-functional, most, automatically, lead to the viruses' death. This means all the mutations that do survive tend to be functional in their relationship with their host and impact on the virus's fitness. So for the virus, it is the structure and functioning of the host's defences that represent the most significant selective force and as antibodies selectively target important structural proteins on the virus, changing these proteins provides a selective advantage. It seems that its individual differences and adaptive immunity are a major driver for new variants.

The vaccine has a major impact on the effects of the disease in reducing serious illness and death, and it's likely that this will be improved over time, but we have to face the fact that we are now facing a disease that is circulating widely and still causing problems despite vaccination, we have modified the disease outcomes but not in a way that's likely to stop it. I think we need to look at the history of pandemics, particularly the previous Coronavirus pandemic, and take some lessons from that. We know that one of the common cold coronaviruses crossed species in the 1890's and there are records of a pandemic that caused around a million deaths, which was called Russian flu, it didn't have many of the features of flu, but they had nothing else to call it. It's thought as the disease swept through populations, very young children were exposed and like with the current disease developed immunity while experiencing mild illness. Increasingly the population was made up of people who had developed immunity early in life and with continued exposure maintained this immunity. This virus is still a common cause of disease, but is now associated with cold like symptoms. It's increasingly being reported that people who develop Covid-19 following two vaccinations seem to experience a modified disease which has more cold like symptoms.
This sort of adaptation is likely to take place over a number of years, and it seems that most historical pandemics seem to occur over periods of around 5 years.

 

[.Scott]

I'm disappointed with Dr Campbell in this video, what's a survey of people without a clue, supposed to mean?

That's was my first thought - but at the risk of Sheldon Cooper 1 advising Sheldon Cooper 2:

- at 8:20: "If we don't find out soon, we may not find out ever (and notice his continuing dismay)."
- at 9:30: "So basically what we're saying is here is the balance of opinion in American intelligence is that this was probably a laboratory leak although they have got the definitive data to know for sure yet. That seems to be the way they are leaning. (His spin is to promote the availability of "definitive data")."
- at 10:35: He says, quoting President Bush: "The world deserves answers and I will not rest until get them". He adds, "Of course I agree completely."
- at 10:45: He explains the potential consequence of not uncovering what happened. I would describe the value of an investigation to be the product of the probability of gain times the value of that gain. So he is now emphasizing the potential enormous benefits to finding out. I would point out that the general public is often swayed more by the "value of gain" that by the "probability of gain". So although he has weaker, less connected citations for "value of gain", to most, this is probably a more persuasive part of his argument.
- at 11:00: "billions of deaths"
- at 12:22: He starts the direct pitch for the survey.
- at 13:40: "I'm not saying that this is going to arrive at the definitive truth."
- at 13:50: "Now, I'm not going to give an opinion at this stage. I want you to vote for yourself." (Really?!? Isn't it nice of him to avoid tipping opinions before the vote. - I'm being facetious.)
- at 14:53: "Now, we could get large numbers on this. If we get something like a million people voting on this, this would be really quite significant. And whether it's going to change anything in the real world I don't know." (But that is his objective).

So he is pretty blatantly arguing as a plaintiff against the People's Republic of China.
In that role, it is appropriate to present an unbalanced view of the evidence.
He is clearly hoping to prod China into defending itself.
The Chinese government wants to appear reasonable and competent - it is their only claim for legitimacy as the rulers of China. So a wildly unbalance poll would have some weight in an attempt to push China to greater transparency.

 

[artis]

@Laroxe did you meant to say that pandemics typically last about 5 years from start to finish of the pandemic phase?

Anyway @Laroxe and @.Scott I understand your criticism but it seems to me that one big problem and factor for why so much suspicion arose around China has pretty much everything to do with their secrecy and political tactics. This of course on its own doesn't mean there was a lab leak but the way China had dealt with the aftermath and the rhetoric really doesn't help their cause. I mean their lockdowns were swift but not the information sharing. After all we are talking about a country that uses concentration camps for it's own citizens as part of their "justice" system.

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.
This wasn't the case back in spring 2020 and even now China is reluctant to engage fully.
https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pa...-audit-wuhan-lab-in-study-of-covid-19-origins

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9244601/china-who-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/chi...or-next-phase-of-covid-origins-investigation/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56054468
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/31/asia/who-report-criticism-intl-hnk/index.html

I am slow to rush to judgement as to the origin of the virus and maybe Dr. Campbell has given into that sweet youtube ad revenue... but I am also slow to defend China and I think that is a sane and warranted position.

 

[atyy]

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.

One point of view:
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/docu...Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf
"These actions reflect, in part, China’s government’s own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China."

It's also worth reading this perspective of the independent international members of a joint WHO–China team
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02263-6
"... Before the report was released, formal statements to the WHO from some governments were circulated in February, with three contentions: that China had not shared data adequately; that we had paid insufficient attention to the lab-leak hypothesis; and that our scientific conclusions were influenced by China’s political stance regarding transmission through the food chain. ..."

And
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00991-0
The origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical review

 

[.Scott]

Since we're citing the reports from "18 US intelligence agencies", I think we might want to take a look at exactly what these agencies are. As it happens, the US Director of National Intelligence has posted a membership list of such organizations which numbers - you guessed it: 18.

But before I post this list, let's take a look at how it was that all 18 were tasked with coming up with an assessment. Even before Biden took office, there was an issue over what the US intelligence community knew about this - and this is where the "low confidence that is was spread naturally" came out. Of course, that just begs the question - why was their confidence low. Unfortunately, the answer certainly lies behind "sources and methods" - the most important elements of National Security Information.

So a "solution" mentioned and apparently adopted was to disseminate the raw information to 18 agencies that have personnel cleared for all the required classification compartments. I suppose it was suppose to answer the question of what most people might conclude if they had all the information available to the US intelligence community.

So here's the list - quoted from the website above:

The U.S. Intelligence Community is composed of the following 18 organizations:

• Two independent agencies—the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA);
• Nine Department of Defense elements—the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the National Security Agency (NSA), the National Geospatial- Intelligence Agency (NGA), the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), and intelligence elements of the five DoD services; the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force.
• Seven elements of other departments and agencies—the Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence; the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis and U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence; the Department of Justice’s Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Drug Enforcement Agency’s Office of National Security Intelligence; the Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research; and the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis

Here's my opinion just based on what I know of the working of government - though I did have to look up that DEA group.

ODNI: This group routinely handles reports from all of the other 17 organizations. They should be able to look at the information and place it in its appropriate category. In all likelihood, if it found itself with a different conclusion that the CIA, it would have asked the CIA for clarification.

CIA: The CIA will have whatever resources it needs to evaluate this intelligence. In fact, when it's important enough, the CIA has all of those other agencies available as resources.

DIA: The DIA may well look at this as a potential Biological Order Of Battle issue. If US troops encountered the Chinese or China-back forces, should we expect bio weapons. Certainly a degree of paranoia is appropriate.

NSA: Certainly the NSA was a key contributor to the intelligence package that was being passed around. Would they have give material that they sourced undo weight? Given their expertise and what parts of the package they could understand, how could an NSA employee avoid such bias?

NGA and NRO: I can just imagine the conversation when this hit their desks. Who in this organization are we going to give this to?

Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Space Force: Even the newly formed Space Force? Perhaps they asked Elon Musk what he thought. In all cases, they would have taken the task seriously.

Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence: They could judge the report by China's reputation alone.

Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis: They would be a consumer of the original CIA report. If they didn't agree, they would have discussed it with the CIA.

U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence: Certainly, if you're looking for a Joe Sixpack opinion, this is as good a place as any. But really, who in the Coast Guard is going to understand the biological evidence - and how much weight should be applied to it?

FBI: This is a good source for a second opinion. They would have all of the resource needed to evaluate the raw intelligence data.

DEA's Office of National Security Intelligence: I had to look this one up. My guess is that they could populate a small team among their 680+ to do something reasonable in the way of an opinion. They may even have a scientist or two with relevant experience.

Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research: Excuse my for some sarcasm here, but the first thing that comes to mind is Hillary Clinton and her penchant for convenient communications over securing classified information. They certainly have involvement in this issue, but I wonder if anyone there even bother to read the full intelligence package. Whether they did or not, I'm sure they would have responded to the President's request diplomatically.

Department of the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis: No background in Biology, but they would have taken the task seriously and likely responded with some enthusiasm.

 

[nsaspook]

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.

IMO China is trying to hide the horrendous illegal trade in endangered, exotic, wild animals that traditionally have been the sources of theses types of pandemics in the past.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-covid-s-origin-points-to-china-animal-trade

But the most plausible theory, say experts involved in the mission, concerns China’s wildlife trade for food, furs and traditional medicine, a business worth about 520 billion yuan ($80 billion) in 2016.

Live animals susceptible to Coronavirus infection were present at the Huanan food market in downtown Wuhan, the city where the first major Covid-19 outbreak was detected. It’s possible they acted as conduits for the virus, carrying it from bats -- likely the primary source -- to humans, says Peter Daszak, a zoologist who was part of the joint research effort, which saw international experts visit Wuhan earlier this year after months of stonewalling by the Chinese government.

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/...06 - Wildlife Trafficking - Final Version.pdf

 

[artis]

Well as I said even if the virus has a zoonotic origin it really doesn't help a single bit that all the involved parties have their agendas and parts they try to hide. It also just helps to build upon the misconceptions of which there is a multitude that float around societies. These are partly to blame for extra unnecessary deaths. Now sure you could say the conspiracy fools are to blame and they are, but truth be told whenever you withhold information or don't allow full transparency rumors start to circulate.

Not to mention the fact that China has on a government level put forth the conspiracy of US soldiers bringing the virus to them. A fabrication so dumb it could be a punchline for a 90's sitcom.

Also just so that you know , I know for a fact that Russia for example is using this pandemic and the associated mistrust of some parts of the public towards their governments to build even more paranoia by using certain key people that spread misinformation. They of course get paid while the little folks die from complications in a hospital bed. This is happening in Europe right now.
The pandemic to them and to others is just another tool to use.

 

[Laroxe]

@Laroxe did you meant to say that pandemics typically last about 5 years from start to finish of the pandemic phase?

Anyway @Laroxe and @.Scott I understand your criticism but it seems to me that one big problem and factor for why so much suspicion arose around China has pretty much everything to do with their secrecy and political tactics. This of course on its own doesn't mean there was a lab leak but the way China had dealt with the aftermath and the rhetoric really doesn't help their cause. I mean their lockdowns were swift but not the information sharing. After all we are talking about a country that uses concentration camps for it's own citizens as part of their "justice" system.

And quite frankly if they know the virus had a natural origin then why behave like an innocent man who is trying to cover up someone else's murder weapon (the virus)? When you have nothing to hide you grant all and any access to international inquiries and investigations.
This wasn't the case back in spring 2020 and even now China is reluctant to engage fully.
https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pa...-audit-wuhan-lab-in-study-of-covid-19-origins

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9244601/china-who-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/chi...or-next-phase-of-covid-origins-investigation/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56054468
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/31/asia/who-report-criticism-intl-hnk/index.html

I am slow to rush to judgement as to the origin of the virus and maybe Dr. Campbell has given into that sweet youtube ad revenue... but I am also slow to defend China and I think that is a sane and warranted position.

I was quoting one of the researchers on TWiV, they talked about getting control, so I don't think its a set time frame. I think they were making the point that there are important other factors that will play an important role, people got a bit carried away with the predictions about the vaccines.
I don't think its true that China withheld information, they certainly did with SARS but it really looks like they learned from that. It was on 27th December that a Dr in Wuhan alerted the authorities to a potentially new disease, it was a relatively small number of cases in a large city and putting the world on alert for something that might simply disappear risks international embarrassment. However, they did start an immediate investigation and only 3 days later they sent out an Urgent notification & stepped up the investigation. China informed the world of their findings and on 12th January they shared the genome sequence which was the foundation of the global research effort. All of this happened before the west started to experience the disease and many in fact simply ignored the information being made available.

Wuhan went into lockdown on the 23rd Jan with Donald Trump praising their efforts and transparency. The link has a nice timeline. I think its was the increasing criticism of western governments for their failures that prompted a search for a scapegoat, and as the accusations increased so did china's defensiveness. I'm not even sure what they are being accused of, when people talk about a lab leak, is it an accident? they have happened in the past but the biosecurity at the Wuhan labs is considered very impressive, a bioweapon? I could have made a better one than this.
While all these intelligence agencies in the US, all under pressure say they don't know, remember that every other country has intelligence agencies and some have better access to China, most of them think they do know. Pandemics happen, and not just to humans and viruses, particularly RNA viruses, are masters of adapting to new hosts.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...he-coronavirus-outbreak-QgTpKdT6o0/index.html

 

[Astronuc]

The US passes 40 million positive cases and nearly 650 K deaths due to coronavirus. Daily average hospitalizations = 101,510.

According to the Houston Chronicle, Texas pediatric COVID hospitalizations mark a record over this past weekend with 345 admissions on Saturday and 307 on Sunday. There were 51,904 positive COVID cases among Texas students since August 29.

Edit/update: Washington Post reports "Miami-Dade County Public Schools are reporting at least 13 employee deaths from Covid-19 since mid-August, . . . ." That's only three weeks!