Global warming causes great cooling

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the claim that global warming may lead to significant cooling in certain regions. Participants explore various mechanisms and theories related to this phenomenon, including the impact of ocean currents and climate models. The conversation includes references to specific studies and papers, as well as differing interpretations of climate data.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that global warming does not imply uniform warming across the globe, as average temperature increases can coexist with localized cooling.
  • A hypothetical mechanism is proposed where melting ice from Greenland could disrupt the Gulf Stream, potentially leading to colder conditions in Northern Europe while causing warmer temperatures elsewhere.
  • Others argue that the idea of global warming causing significant cooling has been debunked, citing specific studies and questioning the validity of certain claims.
  • There is a discussion about the climate of Victoria, Canada, and how it remains mild despite the absence of the Gulf Stream, suggesting that ocean currents play a crucial role in regional climates.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the acceptance of certain theories, indicating that while they find the findings interesting, they do not fully support dismissing established models of climate understanding.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus, as there are multiple competing views regarding the implications of global warming on regional climates. Some defend the standard climate models, while others propose alternative explanations that challenge these models.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights limitations in understanding the complex interactions between global warming and regional climate variations, including dependence on specific definitions and unresolved questions about the mechanisms involved.

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I've seen it before that some people say that global warming will cause or does now cause areas to greatly cool as well. How is this true?
 
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Some people (i.e., Rush Limbaugh) have a mistaken perception that "global warming" means the entire Earth is getting hotter. Global warming simply means that the average temperature over the course of one year and over the entire surface of the Earth is increasing. The average temperature can rise even if some places get colder because this drop is more than compensated by a rise elsewhere.

There are several hypothetical mechanisms that might well trigger some places to get a lot colder because of global warming. For example, global warming could result in a massive release of melted (but still very cold) water from Greenland into the Atlantic. This could shut down the Gulf Stream, making Northern Europe get very cold. This shutdown in turn would make the Gulf of Mexico area get very hot (as if its not hot enough down here already). Some of these hypothetical mechanisms even suggest that global warming might well trigger the next Ice Age.
 
And this story has been debunked some time ago.

http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/51963?fulltext=true&print=yes#52137

You could ask yourself why Victoria Canada has such a mild climate, without a Gulf stream

We discussed it also here: https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=159038

But surely the myth with linger on for a while like all falsified hypotheses.
 
Andre said:
And this story has been debunked some time ago.

http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/51963?fulltext=true&print=yes#52137

You could ask yourself why Victoria Canada has such a mild climate, without a Gulf stream

We discussed it also here: https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=159038

But surely the myth with linger on for a while like all falsified hypotheses.


Seager's findings are very interesting and I'm sure they will continue to receive study. But the standard explanation isn't a myth or a "falsified hypothesis" by any means. Seager has an interesting, and controversial, view. His work isn't something new that's revolutionized climatologists' understanding; it's been around for a few years and is well known.
http://www.realclimate.org/Rhines_hakkinen_2003.pdf
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/Dai_etal_THC_JCL05.pdf

I live near Victoria, and of course it doesn't have a gulf stream, because the gulf stream is in the Atlantic. Our ocean currents are part of the North Pacific Gyre, which transports heat from the tropics. The principle is exactly the same. The offshore winds are warm because the ocean is warm.

I can't help but be struck by his description of wind patterns over the Rocky Mountains. The Rockies aren't even in the equation. The mild climate is limited to a narrow strip of coastline far from the Rockies. However, he may be referring to the Coast Range, which borders almost the whole of the western Canadian coast and the Alaska Panhandle. But why is the effect more pronounced in Britain than in western North America? Western Europe is certianly less mountainous. Windmill palms are grown on the isles of western Scotland. They grow in areas of the Canadian Pacific coast as well, but at lower latitudes. I believe the standard explanation is that the Gulf Stream is stronger than the North Pacific Gyre.

As for the areas east of the mountains, in Canada at least, they are only cold in winter. That cold is due to winds from the north, not from the west, and it extends surprisingly far south. In summer, the Canadian prairies get much hotter than the west coast.

I'm not taking issue with Seager's theory per se. He's the scientist, not me. Or you, for that matter. He may be right. Or partly right. Neither of us is able to honestly make that assessment. I'm just pointing out that his findings are not completely accepted and don't answer all the questions. They're interesting enough, but they don't justify dismissing the standard model as a myth.
 
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