News Health Care Reform - almost a done deal? DONE

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The House is set to vote on the Reconciliation Act of 2010, which could allow the President to sign the bill into law before Senate amendments. The "Deem and Pass" maneuver, also known as the Slaughter option, is being discussed as a way for Democrats to pass the bill without a direct vote, potentially leading to constitutional challenges. While some argue that the bill will save money and expand coverage, others believe it infringes on individual liberties by mandating health insurance purchases. The Congressional Budget Office has provided preliminary estimates indicating the bill could reduce the deficit and cover millions more Americans, though concerns about its constitutional validity remain. The debate highlights deep divisions over healthcare reform and the implications of government mandates in the private sector.
  • #251


Nebula815 said:
Hope you all are right who say the bill will greatly improve healthcare, it will be wonderful if in the future it really has made things better, but with the history of government programs and in particular government healthcare programs, I will believe it when I see it.

One important thing to note, is that lot of this "government run healthcare" will actually be managed at the state level. So if your state screws it up, just move to another one. :smile:
 
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  • #252



That's weird, I didn't know 39% was more than 59%
 
  • #253


Ivan Seeking said:
Note also that the Dow went up yesterday. No doom and gloom.

Not surprising since the bill mandates 300M customers for health insurance with 30M new members and Big Pharma is promised exclusive distribution in the US with a ban on imported pharmaceuticals. The health insurance companies, big pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, etc...all are guaranteed big profits thanks to this bill.
 
  • #254


rootX said:
Office_Shredder said:
Also, your random 10% unemployment stat is ridiculous: it's not true for many European nations with universal healthcare (UK, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, just to name a few from browsing that website)
What you mean by random? It's unemployment is always close to 10% which is worse than US. It has many regulations and unions.

Do you guys across the pond actually look at statistics, or do you just prefer to conjure things up yourselves? If you would, you'd see this:

Unemployment rates (from wiki, but see sources)

UK 7.8%; Switzerland 3.6%; Denmark 4.2%; Norway 3.3%; Sweden 8%; Finland 8.5%

USA 9.7%.
 
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  • #255


cristo said:
Do you guys across the pond actually look at statistics, or do you just prefer to conjure things up yourselves?

The original quote to which RootX referred was about the unemployment rate in France, and included a link showing its unemployment rate over the last 10 years or so. So your ad hominem attack is baseless.

Now there's an argument for cherry-picking: maybe France is a bad example, or maybe the Scandinavian countries are. You could compare other European countries (Spain, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Greece, etc.), or perhaps just the overall EU rate. At least this way you'd be discussing the facts rather than attacking each other.
 
  • #256


CRGreathouse said:
The original quote to which RootX referred was about the unemployment rate in France, and included a link showing its unemployment rate over the last 10 years or so.

Even if that was the comment he was replying to, had he looked at statistics comparing the two countries, he would see that a claim such as "It's unemployment is always close to 10% which is worse than US" was incorrect. For example, from table 1 http://www.bls.gov/fls/intl_unemployment_rates_monthly.htm one can see that the unemployment rate in the USA for much of 2009 was worse than that in France.
 
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  • #257


cristo said:
Even if that was the comment he was replying to

I did trace the quotes backward (that's what the 'right arrow' buttons do*). That was the quote responded to.

* Not to be condescending -- actually I only noticed this myself a few months ago.

cristo said:
he would see that a claim such as "It's unemployment is always close to 10% which is worse than US" was incorrect. For example, from table 1 http://www.bls.gov/fls/intl_unemployment_rates_monthly.htm one can see that the unemployment rate in the USA for much of 2009 was worse than that in France.

That claim was about long-term rates for both countries (as I mentioned in my post, the source was a long-range plot). That the US rate was at some point worse doesn't seem to weaken the point at all. (That France may not be a good example *does* weaken the point.)

Now if the claim had been "Its unemployment is close to 10% which is always worse than US", the criticism would be valid. But it wasn't.
 
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  • #258


Europe, on average, has a higher unemployment rate than the U.S. The UK isn't really Europe and Switzerland is more free-market than the U.S., so I wouldn't use them as an example.

Stand by for a VAT tax when it becomes clear how large a hole in the budget this healthcare legislation blows.
 
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  • #259


Nebula815 said:
Europe, on average, has a higher unemployment rate than the U.S. The UK isn't really Europe and Switzerland is more free-market than the U.S., so I wouldn't use them as an example.

Stand by for a VAT tax when it becomes clear how large a hole in the budget this healthcare legislation blows.

Switzerland requires everyone to get health insurance, and the UK has universal health care, and a fairly high VAT. Considering that we're supposed to be talking about how the march to socialism brought on by the health care bill will sink us like Europe, I think they're very relevant examples.
 
  • #260


Office_Shredder said:
Switzerland requires everyone to get health insurance, and the UK has universal health care, and a fairly high VAT. Considering that we're supposed to be talking about how the march to socialism brought on by the health care bill will sink us like Europe, I think they're very relevant examples.

Switzerland is a very tiny country and is not an entitlement utopia though. The central government there has very little power. They have a large private sector health insurance system combined with a public aspect.

As for the UK, they are in dire straits economically and fiscally right now and headed towards going over a cliff again. They almost did in the late 1970s, the only thing that saved them was Margaret Thatcher and the Conservative party. After the Conservate party started becoming too corrupt (and also raising some taxes), they lost to Labour party, which had re-branded itself as "New Labour," and thus has gone on to spend money like crazy and raise taxes. I would not hold them as an example for us to copy.

They're universal healthcare system has been a contentious issue ever since it was created, and they have various problems with rationing in it to this day. There were actually fewer hospitals in the UK by the 1970s then there had been in the early twentieth century due to the NHS.

They also have heavy regulations over junk lawsuits, which would mean the equivalent of heavy tort reform in the U.S. I am sure that to pay for health reform here, the Democrats will push for a VAT tax, but mention tort reform and they will never do that.

Also, as I said in an earlier post, even if we decide to copy the Euro systems, assuming they work well, we have a very poor record of creating such systems within our own nation. Again, it may sound like a broken record, but it's the truth:

Medicare - trillions in deficit
Medicaid - trillions in deficit

(these two programs alone are both causes of the increasing costs of American healthcare and also are responsible for a large portion of the future deficit projections our nation faces)

Massachusettes healthcare program - premiums among highest and costs very high (http://www.boston.com/news/health/a...health_insurance_premiums_highest_in_country/)

Tennessee - tried an expansion of Medicaid which ballooned out of control in costs (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125046457087135327.html)

So IMO we should work to make sure this stuff works on the small level before trying it on the national level.
 
  • #261


WhoWee said:
If you ask the same people if they would like the Govt to pay their utilities - what do you think they would say?

I, for one, would like for the government to give me a pizza.
 
  • #262


Galteeth said:
I, for one, would like for the government to give me a pizza.
I'd prefer and oil and filter change.
 
  • #263


Gokul43201 said:
So neither of you knows of a reputable study that calculates the extent of the middle class raping that is to ensue?

I commented:

"If anyone pays less, it will be because YOUR taxes subsidized them. Premiums will increae otherwise due to mandated coverage of (high risk) pre-existing conditions and removal of maximum lifetime payouts. The costs to the insurance companies WILL INCREASE - SO WILL PREMIUMS."

As for a reputable study on the subject - I have to laugh (or maybe cry). That is the problem - they didn't do an honest study of the consequences of this legislation.

I posted with regards o how the insurance industry operates. Risk is measured and a premium is quoted ->>> more risk = greater premium.
 
  • #264


WhoWee said:
I commented:

"If anyone pays less, it will be because YOUR taxes subsidized them. Premiums will increae otherwise due to mandated coverage of (high risk) pre-existing conditions and removal of maximum lifetime payouts. The costs to the insurance companies WILL INCREASE - SO WILL PREMIUMS."

As for a reputable study on the subject - I have to laugh (or maybe cry). That is the problem - they didn't do an honest study of the consequences of this legislation.

I posted with regards o how the insurance industry operates. Risk is measured and a premium is quoted ->>> more risk = greater premium.

Theoretically, this might be offset by the massive influx of new customers. Of course, it sort of stifles competition, and this "increased competition" aspect of the bill doesn't take effect till 2014, and by my understanding still does not allow for competition over state lines.
 
  • #265


Nebula815 said:
Europe, on average, has a higher unemployment rate than the U.S.

Really? Because the link I gave above, averaged over the last year or so, says otherwise.

The UK isn't really Europe and Switzerland is more free-market than the U.S., so I wouldn't use them as an example.

You can't just redefine "Europe" to suit your argument.
 
  • #266


cristo said:
Really? Because the link I gave above, averaged over the last year or so, says otherwise.

Europe, on average, as a continent, has a chronically high unemployment rate and more stagnant economic growth rates during good times. They also have higher levels of national debt to GDP on average. The United States, on average, maintains full employment, with unemployment only going higher during recessions. This current recession was the equivalent of a torpedo (real-estate bust) hitting the ship (economy), which has thus driven unemployment to its highest in approximately three decades (the last time being the Volcker Recession of 1981-1982).

The U.S. also has fairly decent growth during good times and a lower debt-GDP ratio (although it's getting up there).

You can't just redefine "Europe" to suit your argument.

"Technically" the UK may be considered part of Europe but from my understanding, they have never regarded themselves as "European" in the conventional sense. But regardless, the UK does not have the same degree of mixed economy as other nations in the EU. The UK is able to still put the same amount of money proportionally into its national defense as the United States.

Switzerland is not part of the European Union. Switzerland does not follow the same policies as most EU countries (high taxes, massive social welfare systems), although they have aligned certain policies to match the EU recently. They have a modern market economy with low taxes, low unemployment, decent GDP growth, and one of the highest GDP per capitas in the world.

One thing to also think about is the national defense. A big danger for the United States of becoming a European-style social democracy is the cut required in the defense. In addition to more of the budget going to social expenditures, the probable higher level of debt will increase the interest that must be paid, gutting the defense more.

Remember, if the European nations had had to fend for themselves after WWII, there is no way they would have been able to pour the amount of money into social systems that they do. They were able to do this because the U.S. to a great degree has subsidized their security for many years.

But if the U.S. goes the same route, who will replace us?

The paranoid fear about a New World Order forming, but I think in the future we risk just the opposite, a world with truly no order.
 
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  • #267


NeoDevin said:
Source? Given the potential damage to other buildings from an uncontrolled fire, I'm having a hard time believing this. (I could be mistaken though)

turbo-1 said:
Some high-end estates and large business may contract for private fire-protection, but the large businesses that I have worked with have mutual-aid agreements with public fire departments, as well. I haven't yet lived anywhere where your property taxes didn't pay for public fire departments.

Surely you guys have heard of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volunteer_fire_department" ? Often the VFD's mix in with the regular pro's, but in some small towns it is all VFD, at least there are in my state. Edit: The first VFD in the US was Franklin's idea, set up in Philadelphia in 1736. They followed with private fire insurance in 1751 which led to rapidly improvement in Philly's fire prevention measures. Maybe that's why Philly never had one of those total city-destroying fires ala Chicago, SF, NYC.
http://www.ushistory.org/tour/tour_contrib.htm
 
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  • #268


WhoWee said:
I commented:

"If anyone pays less, it will be because YOUR taxes subsidized them. Premiums will increae otherwise due to mandated coverage of (high risk) pre-existing conditions and removal of maximum lifetime payouts. The costs to the insurance companies WILL INCREASE - SO WILL PREMIUMS."

As for a reputable study on the subject - I have to laugh (or maybe cry). That is the problem - they didn't do an honest study of the consequences of this legislation.

I posted with regards o how the insurance industry operates. Risk is measured and a premium is quoted ->>> more risk = greater premium.

So you keep insisting on your point but have nothing to back it up but personal opinion. Got it.
 
  • #269


turbo-1 said:
I wish some Republicans had been willing to cross the aisle, along with Olympia Snowe.
Snowe as you may know voted to forward the Senate bill out of here Finance Committee with some reservations. After that the bill went behind closed doors it came out completely differently; she and every other R. voted against that. Today she went on the floor and attacked the final bill in detail, describing how it went completely off the rails after committee. Meanwhile, here's the written statement she released couple days ago, as I can't find today's floor speech yet.

http://snowe.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=881403bd-802a-23ad-4641-266a1f517857
Snowe said:
“As one who has been intimately involved in the multiple facets of health care reform for well over a year and the only Republican to vote for the Finance Committee's reform bill, and at this time when Americans are facing the enormous challenges of access to affordable coverage, it is disappointing to consider what might have been if the process had focused on addressing fundamental problems with the bill to develop a more balanced, effective, and credible approach that would be embraced broadly by the American people. Instead, energy and ingenuity that could have been applied to making key adjustments on the critical issues of the affordability of plans and the negative effect of the bill on small businesses and job growth was directed toward executing an arcane process that ultimately denied Congress the opportunity to pass the best possible package. Today was regrettably the manifestation of legislative and political expediency trumping responsible policy.

“Representing the State of Maine which has been bludgeoned by premium costs representing a 349 percent increase over the last decade alone, it is inherently clear that the status quo is unacceptable. At the same time, I believe that process dictates substance, and the bill that the Senate voted on last December was the result of a defective process that could not produce the kind of legislation that would garner widespread support and credibility.

“Now, here we are today – with the majority leadership doing an ‘end run’ around the regular order of legislative procedures with a ‘reconciliation’ process that severely curtails the scope of potential amendments that could improve the underlying bill, which I find profoundly troubling as one who has said throughout this debate that I would work to improve the legislation regardless of whether I could ultimately support it. The fact is, reconciliation was designed to address budget deficits, not to enact the reordering of more than $33 trillion on health care expenditures over the next ten years and one-sixth of our economy. Given this legislation would essentially not take effect until 2014, Congress could have taken the opportunity to address the underlying concerns with the bill rather than resort to legislative machinations.

“Indeed, at this precarious time when we must reestablish our economy, this is precisely the wrong moment to be increasing penalties in the bill from $750 to $2,000 for employers, with more than 50 workers, who do not offer health insurance. Moreover, retaining the Medicare tax increases from the Senate version of the bill will disproportionally affect our nation’s small businesses which will hinder, rather than help, small business job growth. The House also failed to remove the Class Act, a new entitlement which has been criticized by the non-partisan Medicare Actuary, who pointed out that it has serious problems with adverse risk selection that would make it ‘unsustainable.’ And I am troubled that the House also cut more deeply into Medicare, which moves us further in the wrong direction.

“While the House reconciliation bill would increase subsidies for low-income and middle-class individuals, I remain concerned the bill does not ensure affordable premium options for all Americans. That is why I wrote to the Congressional Budget Office on December 3 to request a state-specific analysis of the impact on premiums, however I did not receive an answer to that question before the Senate vote in December and as of today we still don’t have that critical information.

“This was not Congress’s finest hour -- we could have produced bipartisan legislation supported by a strong majority of Americans but the process by which we considered this enormous task failed to allow for that outcome, to the detriment of the American people."

The floor speech today has much more detail.
 
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  • #270
lisab said:
David Frum has a very thoughtful blog that is ostensibly about the health care bill, but ends up diagnosing a big problem the Republicans have:

http://www.frumforum.com/waterloo"
I agree with Frum here:
So today’s defeat for free-market economics and Republican values is a huge win for the conservative entertainment industry.
For me its an empiric point: if I look objectively at the current public policy and conclude its going very wrongly, I conclude that the mouths doing most of the talking center stage are not effective, even destructive. They need to shut up and get off the stage. Limbaugh from what little I can tell is not much of a http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache..._Burke+edmund+burke&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us" conservative in the political sense. He is a 'leave everything as it is' conservative in the first dictionary sense, and the two are often completely different.
 
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  • #271


Gokul43201 said:
Do you have a reliable independent study supporting that assertion (and how many "middle class Americans" are you talking about: 100 or 100 million)? The last CBO analysis on premiums, from Nov 30, says that most people will see a decrease in costs. I don't believe they've redone that analysis more recently.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-care-reform-does-not-increase-premiums-and-/

www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/107xx/doc10781/11-30-Premiums.pdf
I'm inclined to look to the 2006 Massachusetts reforms as the best guides for what is to come, as they're similar. Mass has by far the highest premiums in the country and the longest wait times to see a GP. They had high premiums before reform too, but they've continued to increase since 2006, the WSJ op ed says 30%/year for individuals.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703444804575071294139286892.html?mg=com-wsj
Boston.com says, about 10%/year for the overall market.
http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/09/16/health_insurers_plan_10_rise_in_rates/
Meanwhile the state's spending on health has increased dramatically, with Gov Patrick recently threatening price controls.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/e...9/03/02/mass_healthcare_reform_is_failing_us/
 
  • #272


Yeah, it's possible this may end up similarly, but I'm not sufficiently aware of the details to comment. Nevertheless, I find it odd that a plan that is supposedly so similar to the one implemented by the Republican front-runner for the next Presidential election is being heckled so savagely by the Republican Party.

On a somewhat related note, I'd never heard of the position and role of Senate Parliamentarian until today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentarian_of_the_United_States_Senate
 
  • #273


mheslep said:
Snowe as you may know voted to forward the Senate bill out of here Finance Committee with some reservations. After that the bill went behind closed doors it came out completely differently; she and every other R. voted against that. Today she went on the floor and attacked the final bill in detail, describing how it went completely off the rails after committee.
There was an op-ed in the Times a couple weeks ago, written by Snowe's Health Policy adviser.

Here it is: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/opinion/16pewen.html

Some interesting snippets:
...Republicans rightly note that their role was minimized in four of the five Congressional committees charged with drafting the legislation. Yet many Republicans had decided even before Inauguration Day to block reform, including policies that their party had previously supported. In 2003, for example, Republicans enacted legislation that financed end-of-life counseling — yet in town halls last August they claimed a similar measure would create “death panels.”

Republican cries for fiscal responsibility also ring hollow when you consider the party’s record of establishing higher-cost private Medicare plans and enacting a drug benefit that wasn’t paid for. The fact is that under the Republicans’ watch, critical problems of escalating health costs and access to affordable coverage were largely ignored.

Yet Democratic leadership worsened the erosion of bipartisanship.
...
Democrats later merged legislation from the two Senate committees into a single bill.

In that merging, the focus shifted to a one-sided political calculus, and away from critical questions like just how much it would cost Americans to carry the minimum amount of insurance coverage required under the emerging bill. Rather than address such concerns, the Democratic leadership, in the interest of political expediency, expanded the scope of the legislation, adding more regulation, spending and taxes. Soon health care reform, which had been achievable, became endangered.
...
No less embarrassing was the way the majority leadership killed a bipartisan amendment to establish an F.D.A.-regulated system for importing prescription drugs. Safe importation would have produced nearly $100 billion in savings, $19.4 billion of which would have been realized by the federal government. But the amendment conflicted with the deal Democrats had made with the pharmaceutical industry.
...
 
  • #274


Gokul43201 said:
Yeah, it's possible this may end up similarly, but I'm not sufficiently aware of the details to comment. Nevertheless, I find it odd that a plan that is supposedly so similar to the one implemented by the Republican front-runner for the next Presidential election is being heckled so savagely by the Republican Party.
Two reasons, as Romney and others have often responded when asked that question:
1. Mass/Romney care admittedly didn't attempt to address cost head on. The main idea was simply to get people covered. Romney now admits the beast doesn't work for costs. Then, the Mass legislature, in an all too predictable hand-out-the-bacon move for politicians, piled on a heap of benefits and requirements into the state plans that Romney didn't want.
2. Mass/Romney care is a _state_ based solution. At the state level, the plan is customized for Mass needs, the politicians have a higher degree of accountability for the problems, as do the local bureaucratic implementers, and fixes are far easier to make than it ever will be for a federal plan.

On a somewhat related note, I'd never heard of the position and role of Senate Parliamentarian until today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentarian_of_the_United_States_Senate
Neither had I.
 
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  • #275


Gokul43201 said:
Yeah, it's possible this may end up similarly, but I'm not sufficiently aware of the details to comment. Nevertheless, I find it odd that a plan that is supposedly so similar to the one implemented by the Republican front-runner for the next Presidential election is being heckled so savagely by the Republican Party.

Well just because Mitt Romney enacted the program doesn't mean that conservatives were in agreement with it.

One thing to keep in mind on Romney as well is most conservatives have always been suspicious of him, but are willing to go along with his current policy choices, not vote for him based on his past, in which he was first a Democrat, then became a pro-choice Republican who created Romneycare in Massachusettes, then changed to being pro-life and against government-mandated healthcare.

On a somewhat related note, I'd never heard of the position and role of Senate Parliamentarian until today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentarian_of_the_United_States_Senate

A lot of people hadn't heard of reconciliation until this bill either. Or deem-and-pass.
 
  • #276


At birth, Houston Tracy let out a single loud cry before his father cut the cord and handed him to a nurse.

Instantly, Doug Tracy knew something was wrong with his son.

"He wasn't turning pink fast enough," Tracy said. "When they listened to his chest, they realized he had an issue."

That turned out to be d-transposition of the great arteries, a defect in which the two major vessels that carry blood away from the heart are reversed. The condition causes babies to turn blue.

Read more: http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/0...orn-with-heart-defect.html#tvg#ixzz0jaHceHC8"


I can't believe it. It's a baby! How could a health insurer deny coverage for something like this.
 
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  • #277


MotoH said:
How could a health insurer deny coverage for something like this.

Same reason they deny coverage for anything else they think they can get away with: Profit.
 
  • #278


Can't we all just get along?

Wait... looking at the way things are in this country, that's never going to happen.

Obviously, considering that the no pre-existing conditions clause doesn't take effect until september, we should boycott health insurance companies until september. Of course, this plan has many fundamental flaws, but then, so did the Bay of Pigs, the Iraq War, and Oprah, and we did that, right?
 
  • #279


A technical point. People are using the word risk but this is only valid when talking about one person. When we talk about a pool of 1 million people it is no longer risk it is a highly predictable amount of money we will spend each year for medical care (i.e cost). Just as talking about one gas molecule is a different subject then talking about a volume of gas with 10^23 molecules.

So a pool of 1 million healthy people has an annual cost of X dollars for medical care and a pool of unhealthy people has an annual cost of Y dollars for care and a pool of mixed healthy and unhealthy has a cost of Z dollars per year. It is safe to say

X<<Y
X<Z
Z<Y
 
  • #280


MotoH said:
I can't believe it. It's a baby! How could a health insurer deny coverage for something like this.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/0...born-with-heart-defect.html#tvg#ixzz0jaHceHC8
I think this is a case of the uninsured, not denial. To have a denial, there had to be an insurance policy in place. There was no insurance as I read the story, nothing to deny. I wonder what happened to Medicaid, if the problem here was affordability.
 
  • #281
Obama signed the Reconciliation Act this morning. The biggest piece of legislation to pass in 40 years, is now the law.

Who knew it was still possible to get something big done in Washington?

Congratulations to President Obama, VP Biden, SOH Pelosi, and SML Reid, who dared to tackle America's unfinished business, and won! And it only took 100 years. The first President to attempt this was Teddy Roosevelt.

Teddy%20Roosevelt.jpg


Bully Bully!
 
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  • #282
Ivan Seeking said:
Obama signed the Reconciliation Act this morning. The biggest piece of legislation to pass in 40 years, is now the law.

Who knew it was still possible to get something big done in Washington?

Congratulations to President Obama, VP Biden, SOH Pelosi, and SML Reid, who dared to tackle America's unfinished business, and won! And it only took 100 years. The first President to attempt this was Teddy Roosevelt.
Pretty impressive achievement, since there was NO bipartisanship, even on such an important issue. Rounding up Democratic votes in Congress is like herding cats, so Pelosi and Reid deserve extra credit.
 
  • #283
Ivan Seeking said:
Obama signed the Reconciliation Act this morning. The biggest piece of legislation to pass in 40 years, is now the law.

Ivan, I still have virtually no idea what IT is.

I of course have read lots of commentary those who like it say it is the best thing since sliced bread and those who do not like it say the sky is falling. I have not and will not read 2000 pages of legal speak myself.

I take it you are on the like it side. What are some of the things it does?
 
  • #284
So Dems will start implementing the new reform. It will take few years before the reform will start showing some benefits. However, the Reps will come into office for the next term (which I am confident about unless it's Sarah Palin again :P) and change all what Dems started?
 
  • #285
edpell said:
Ivan, I still have virtually no idea what IT is.

I of course have read lots of commentary those who like it say it is the best thing since sliced bread and those who do not like it say the sky is falling. I have not and will not read 2000 pages of legal speak myself.

I take it you are on the like it side. What are some of the things it does?

That's why, imo, it is so important to find reliable and balanced pundits, like David Gergen, and stick with them. They are paid to be experts and have the experience to provide the proper perspective. As with most any subject, one cannot become an expert by reading a document.

A few highlights, general expectations, and achievements:
Insures 30 million people who currently have no insurance, through a low-cost insurance pool
Eliminates lifetime limits on insurance plans
Eliminates "prexisting conditions" as a basis to refuse insurance to an applicant
Penalizes those who could afford insurance but have none.
Mandates that insurance companies disperse 80% of funds collected, for claims.
50% tax credit [credit, not a deduction] for small business medical insurance costs
Reduces deficit by $1.2 trillion over the next twenty years

There are many cost-saving features, the impact of which cannot be accurately estimated, so the CBO assumes a zero benefit. In fact we should see significant reductions in medical costs.

Philosophically, we have defined that health care is now a right, not a privilege.

David Gergen: an American political consultant and presidential advisor during the administrations of Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton. He is currently Director of the Center for Public Leadership and a professor of public service at Harvard Kennedy School.[1] Gergen is the Editor-at-large for U.S. News and World Report and the Senior Political Analyst for CNN.[2]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Gergen
 
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  • #286
Ivan Seeking said:
That's why, imo, it is so important to find reliable and balanced pundits, like David Gergen, and stick with them. They are paid to be experts and have the experience to provide the proper perspective. As with most any subject, one cannot become an expert by reading a document.

A few highlights, general expectations, and achievements:
Insures 30 million people who currently have no insurance, through a low-cost insurance pool
Eliminates lifetime limits on insurance plans
Eliminates "prexisting conditions" as a basis to refuse insurance to an applicant
Penalizes those who could afford insurance but have none.
Mandates that insurance companies disperse 80% of funds collected, for claims.
50% tax credit [credit, not a deduction] for small business medical insurance costs
Reduces deficit by $1.2 trillion over the next twenty years

There are many cost-saving features, the impact of which cannot be accurately estimated, so the CBO assumes a zero benefit. In fact we should see significant reductions in medical costs.

Never talk about the future as fact before it's happened.

We don't KNOW that, whatever the CBO says. After all, the CBO is part of government, and government is made up of people, and people are often wrong. What I'm trying to say is that the CBO might be wrong.
 
  • #287
Char. Limit said:
Never talk about the future as fact before it's happened.

We don't KNOW that, whatever the CBO says. After all, the CBO is part of government, and government is made up of people, and people are often wrong. What I'm trying to say is that the CBO might be wrong.

There are never guarantees in Washington, but the CBO is highly respected by both parties and is considered the judge and jury. The fact is that the CBO tends to be very conservative in its estimates. That is why, for example, none of the cost reducing features were given any consideration. If they can't be quantified in concrete terms, then then don't get counted at all.

To argue that we can't look to analysis for guidance is to make us like blind men in a mine field. What I would not pay ANY attention to are people like Limbaugh or Beck, who have no basis for an opinion. The one certainty here is that the CBO is infinitely more qualified to comment that most anyone on television or the radio; or anyone else, for that matter.
 
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  • #288
Ivan Seeking said:
There are never guarantees in Washington, but the CBO is highly respected by both parties and is considered the judge and jury. The fact is that the CBO tends to be very conservative in its estimates. That is why, for example, none of the cost reducing features were given any consideration. If they can't be quantified in concrete terms, then then don't get counted at all.

To argue that we can't look to analysis for guidance is to make us like blind men in a mine field. What I would not pay ANY attention to are people like Limbaugh or Beck, who have no basis for an opinion. The one certainty here is that the CBO is infinitely more qualified to comment that most anyone on television or the radio; or anyone else, for that matter.

Now I wasn't suggesting not listening to the CBO at all. I was trying to imply that we shouldn't take the fact that you posited as, well, fact.

And please... I know better than to listen to people like Limbaugh and Beck... didn't you see my earlier post? Actually, FOX News is my favorite comedy channel.
 
  • #289
Ivan Seeking said:
David Gergen: an American political consultant and presidential advisor during the administrations of Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton. He is currently Director of the Center for Public Leadership and a professor of public service at Harvard Kennedy School.[1] Gergen is the Editor-at-large for U.S. News and World Report and the Senior Political Analyst for CNN.[2]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Gergen
Eh? Are you saying Gergen is your reference for all the above? If so is that your synopsis of one of his broadcasts or is there a link?
 
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  • #290
IvanS said:
Reduces deficit by $1.2 trillion over the next twenty years

Char. Limit said:
Never talk about the future as fact before it's happened.

We don't KNOW that, whatever the CBO says.
The CBO didn't say that. The actual text:

CBO letter to Pelosi March 18 said:
[...]
Effects of the Legislation Beyond the First 10 Years

Although CBO does not generally provide cost estimates beyond the 10-year budget projection period, certain Congressional rules require some information about the budgetary impact of legislation in subsequent decades, and many Members have requested CBO’s analyses of the long-term budgetary impact of broad changes in the nation’s health care and health insurance systems. Therefore, CBO has developed a rough outlook for the decade following the 2010-2019 period by grouping the elements of the legislation into broad categories and (together with the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation) assessing the rate at which the budgetary impact of each of those broad categories is likely to increase over time. Our analysis indicates that H.R. 3590, as passed by the Senate, would reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade relative to those projected under current law—with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of gross domestic product (GDP).3 The imprecision of that calculation reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to it, compared with CBO’s 10-year budget estimates.
In today's terms, that's $35 to $70B per year of deficit reduction, given their assumptions (see below).
That's it for the letter. There is no 2029 tabulated dollar figure hiding somewhere in an appendix.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf

In his http://cboblog.cbo.gov/" , CBO director Elmendorf has some caveats about that long term estimate:
Director's Blog said:
[the second ten years] calculation reflects an assumption that the provisions of the legislation are enacted and remain unchanged throughout the next two decades, which is often not the case for major legislation. For example, the sustainable growth rate mechanism governing Medicare’s payments to physicians has frequently been modified to avoid reductions in those payments, and legislation to do so again is currently under consideration by the Congress. The current legislation would maintain and put into effect a number of policies that might be difficult to sustain over a long period of time.
 
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  • #291
Ivan Seeking said:
Mandates that insurance companies disperse 80% of funds collected, for claims.

Ivan, thanks for the insight. This is the first time I have heard about the above 80%. I like it.
 
  • #292
Ah, here's an example of why the health law's deficit estimates from CBO are likely bogus through no fault of their own, as exactly warned about by the CBO.

From the CBO director again:
[the second ten years] calculation reflects an assumption that the provisions of the legislation are enacted and remain unchanged throughout the next two decades, which is often not the case for major legislation. For example, the sustainable growth rate mechanism governing Medicare’s payments to physicians has frequently been modified to avoid reductions in those payments, and legislation to do so again is currently under consideration by the Congress. The current legislation would maintain and put into effect a number of policies that might be difficult to sustain over a long period of time.
The point being that CBO is obligated to estimate from what's written down on the books, not how Congress perennially behaves. In this case http://www.cms.hhs.gov/SustainableGRatesConFact/01_Overview.asp#TopOfPage" says Medicare doc payments will be cut. CBO estimated accordingly. Later, either Congress or the executive calls an audible, as they have done for years.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-29/doctors-get-reprieve-from-21-decline-in-payments-from-medicare.html"

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Doctors slated to have their Medicare reimbursements cut 21 percent on April 1 got a reprieve from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which is delaying lowered payments until after Congress reconvenes.
We'll see what happens when Congress gets back on the 12th.
 
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  • #293
rootX said:
So Dems will start implementing the new reform. It will take few years before the reform will start showing some benefits. However, the Reps will come into office for the next term (which I am confident about unless it's Sarah Palin again :P) and change all what Dems started?
Not if (when) it proves popular, they won't.

As an observer looking in from a country with universal health care provided free at the point of need, I find the US debate rather mystifying, I must admit. I would hope and expect many of those who opposed the legislation to come to rather like the idea of healthcare as a universal right. It's quite a modest reform, really, but it's a start.
 
  • #294
The only problem with America is that even when a party has a supermajority, this is all they can get done. Two thngs that I would have liked to see included:

1. Public Option. Seriously Dems, biggest mistake you've made this term is taking that off.
2. Sell insurance across state lines. I'm not sure why this is a Republican idea (I thought the Republicans were FOR monopolies, not against them), but there's no reason not to put it in. Shame, congress, shame.
 
  • #295
Sea Cow said:
Not if (when) it proves popular, they won't.

As an observer looking in from a country with universal health care provided free at the point of need,
Is it? Is it universally slow? Should it be called universal at all if the government decides that some tests or treatments won't be done, that, say, an MRI really isn't needed?
 
  • #296
Char. Limit said:
The only problem with America is that even when a party has a supermajority, this is all they can get done. Two thngs that I would have liked to see included:

1. Public Option. Seriously Dems, biggest mistake you've made this term is taking that off.
You understand that the public option would never have passed?
 
  • #297
mheslep said:
You understand that the public option would never have passed?

We don't know that. If Democrats were loyal to party (a bad trait normally, but here it's a good thing), it could have passed. Plus, if the FOX News Disinformation Machine (trademark) hadn't done so much, I think it would have passed...
 
  • #298
Char. Limit said:
We don't know that.
Yes we do. People went on record saying they would not vote for it. Lieberman comes to mind - said he would join a filibuster against the original Senate bill.

If Democrats were loyal to party (a bad trait normally, but here it's a good thing), it could have passed. Plus, if the FOX News Disinformation Machine (trademark) hadn't done so much, I think it would have passed...
What do these hypotheticals have do with your original assertion?
 
  • #299
mheslep said:
Yes we do. People went on record saying they would not vote for it. Lieberman comes to mind - said he would join a filibuster against the original Senate bill.

Lieberman might as well be a Republican, and I count him firmly in that camp. I also count him in the same camp as Arlen Specter... if you know which camp that is, as, being an intelligent person, I'm sure you do.

What do these hypotheticals have do with your original assertion?

You're right... my original assertion is that the public option should have been in the bill, and when you challenged that by saying it wouldn't have passed, I created the hypotheticals. Nevertheless, I believe that FOX News was the reason the public option didn't pass despite majority support for it.

Washington Post Poll
Talking Points Memo Poll
http://blogs.abcnews.com/theworldnewser/2009/09/majority-of-americans-support-a-public-option-in-health-reform.html
http://blog.american.com/?p=4754
Wall Street Journal Poll
 
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  • #300
mheslep said:
Is it? Is it universally slow? Should it be called universal at all if the government decides that some tests or treatments won't be done, that, say, an MRI really isn't needed?
In the US, it is not 'the government' but private insurance companies that make that decision. So yes, heath care is rationed here in the UK and there in the US. Here in the UK, the decision how to ration care is taken by a board of health care professionals (not 'the government' – there is a difference) according to clinical criteria. There in the US, the decision is taken by profit-making companies according to the financial situation of the individual concerned.

I know which situation I prefer. I don't have to worry about health care. If I'm ill, I go to a doctor – and I'm seen, for free, that same day. There may then be a waiting period as I'm referred to a specialist for free – the system in the UK is by no means perfect, although waiting times have come right down in the last decade – it used to be much worse. But life expectancy in the UK is higher than the US. They're doing something right.

ETA: A lot of lies were told about the UK system in the run up to these reforms in the US. All I can say is, come here, stand in the street and ask people whether they favour the system we have or some kind of private insurance scheme. You'll be hard-pushed to find anyone, rich or poor, who does not favour our system. Every political party falls over itself to appear the most keen on the National Health Service. Even Thatcher did. Universal health care provided free at the point of need is great. Really. You'd like it.

You're not banned from going private, btw, if you so wish. But if you do go private, you still have to pay for the NHS for the rest of us through your taxes. In just the same way, you in the US are free to send your children to private schools, but still have to pay for the state schools that everyone else uses through your taxes. Certain provisions, such as health and education, can and should be considered a universal right and responsibility of citizenship. It's called society.
 
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