Art said:
What is the latest thinking on GW? A while back I saw some studies that concluded whilst greenhouse gasses do cause warming the effect is beneficial because it promotes plant growth and mitigates against a natural cyclic event which is leading us into the next ice-age.
Really? I've read some studies too, seemed mostly like junk to me.
Do you remember seeing statements of uncertainty with all these precise 'measurements' of global warming, cooling, whatever? Seldom, never.
It's one thing to attempt to integrate out space born satellite measurements--available for the last few decades, not centuries or millenia, and even THAT requires a model and assumptions, and those things do not have zero uncertainty. Where is THAT data fro the 1800s? the 1700s?
So, what means of measuring 'the' global temperature in centuries past exist, and, much more important, what is the uncertainty of those methods? Oh, we dig up sparsely sampled glacial ice, then look at trapped gasses, then take a WAG uncalibratable guess at how this local measurement relates to 'global' agregates, and then, here is the kicker, DO NOT publish our uncertainties--not even, estimates of same. Nope; "4.31 deg C change" in 'the' global temperature, or whatever. And, we compare that with modern space born data from radiometers, which, by the way, measure scene radiance, not even scene temperature, and certainly, not surface temperature. To try to convert to a surface temperature, a hand waving model of the atmosphere must be employed, give or take a Pinatubo eruption, and in the end, simply brute force correlated with surface bouy data. As imprecise as all of THAT is, we pretend to compare it with data extracted from ancient history? Or, my favorite--future history? Jesus H. Christ.
If the change being claimed is substantially less than the uncertainty of the methods used, then what does that tell you?
As well, the absolute biggest driver in all of this; solar 'constant,' poorly named.
In all of this observational science, there is one thing that is the least uncertain; in the end, no matter how long we hold our breath, the entire Universe is going to be a dim 3 deg Kelvin cloud of nothingness. In a cosmic sense, it's totally OK if we leave some greasy naked ape fingerprints along the way; it's of no more cosmic significance --nor permanance--than the wake of surfboard left on the ocean.