News Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

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The Iraqi government is facing imminent collapse under insurgent pressure, with ISIS reportedly taking control of Mosul. The U.S. has refused military aid to Iraq, primarily to avoid appearing to support Prime Minister al-Maliki, whose Shiite leadership could be seen as backing Iran. Concerns are rising that if insurgents gain control of Baghdad, it could lead to increased conflict with Iran. The Iraqi army, despite being well-trained and outnumbering ISIS, has shown reluctance to engage, leaving military equipment behind in their retreat. The situation is evolving into a civil war, raising fears of broader regional instability and the potential resurgence of terrorism globally.
  • #781
Maylis said:
I understand we had the Barbary Wars,...
Perhaps not. Take a look at the reference. The US was in conflict with the Barbary states for decades, and when the nascent Navy finally acted most of the existing ships were required.
 
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  • #782
Maylis said:
Somehow I don't think the founders ever imagined we would be occupying many countries and overthrowing elected leaders, and then backing rebels who later use the arms we gave them against us.
Congress has abdicated its constitutional responsibility in this respect, IMO. I believe it has more than a whiff of decadence and corruption.
 
  • #783
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/w...roving-ground-and-west-takes-notice.html?_r=0
The strikes have involved aircraft never before tested in combat, including the Sukhoi Su-34 strike fighter, which NATO calls the Fullback, and a ship-based cruise missile fired more than 900 miles from the Caspian Sea, which, according to some analysts, surpasses the American equivalent in technological capability.
...
He and others said that the biggest surprise so far has been the missile technology on display. The cruise missiles fired from Russian frigates and destroyers in the Caspian Sea were first tested only in 2012. With a range said to reach 900 miles, they had not been used in combat before, and despite the loss of four cruise missiles that crashed in Iran in one salvo, they represent a technological leap that could prove worrisome for military commanders in NATO. He noted that the advances in missile technologies improved the precision and firepower even of aging Soviet-era ships or aircraft.

“This is an amazingly capable new weapon,” he added.
 
  • #784
Comment: But 4 lost somewhere in Iran and 26 getting to Syria is not bad. Of course there is no much point in using not fully tested cruise missiles when there is no anti-aircraft fire, but somehow I doubt that it were Syrians who were supposed to be ones to be impressed.
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/world/2015/10/10/73628682/

Russians violated Turkish airspace twice and put a radar lock on Turkish jets who came to intercept intruders:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...berg-russia-turkish-airspace-violations-syria
Yes, standard procedure in fighting ISIS... ;)

By occasion - have anyone noticed one part - Russians brought with themselves SAM battery to Syria. Any info about ISIS airforces? ;)

On Polish web pages there is an info, that based on adds from Russian web sites, Russians are desperately recruiting mercenaries/soldiers to fight in Syria (no idea whether they would be there officially this time). The most interesting part was that they started recruiting among their mercenaries who occupy Ukraine, what looked like a sign of awful manpower shortage.
(I may give a link in Polish if anyone is interested)

So far, I consider recent Russian involvement of mostly a stunt, intended for both internal and external propaganda, with dream of boosting image, confronting the West and maybe scoring some political aims, unrelated to ISIS. I already saw a horde of Russian paid trolls glorifying great Russian successes in combating ISIS. There is also a genuine part, and its involve saving Assad, which is not going to be so easy.

Recent Russian strategy resembles somewhat what they did in Chechenya - kill first all democratic and moderate opposition, so when only genuine radicals are left (either by attrition or by convincing moderates that radicalism is the only way), no one would whine about need for any political compromise with opposition. Needless to say in Chechenya case it backfired a bit. This time it seems a bit harder, because of geographical separation. Nevertheless Russia claim that killed already a few Chechens trained by ISIS who planned attacks against Russia, but this claim can not be independently checked, while Kardyrov has, politely speaking, limited credibility:
http://en.apa.az/xeber_is_gunmen_killed_in_chechnya_prepared_la_233189.html

From the good part, Russians already made Turkey and Saudi Arabia furious. I love the smell of cheap Saudi oil flooding the market.

EDIT: Turkish just shot down one tiny drone, that violated its airspace. No one admits that it was their. According to unconfirmed rumours it looks like Russian Orlan-10. (one may just google the photo and compare it, because Turkish just posted the photo of what they hunted)
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/16/turkey-shoots-down-drone-near-syrian-border
 
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  • #785
Syrian army, allies advance near Aleppo with Russian cover
http://news.yahoo.com/syria-army-allies-advance-near-aleppo-russian-cover-144740103.html
Syrian troops have gone on the attack in Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Latakia provinces taking advantage of Russian air strikes against Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra Front and other rebel groups.

Three senior Nusra members, one of them a US-designated "global terrorist", were killed in an air strike in Aleppo province on Thursday, a monitoring group said.

Regime forces control the western part of Aleppo city -- Syria's pre-war economic hub -- but much of the surrounding province is held by rebel groups -- Al-Qaeda and others in the west and IS in the east.
So much for going after Daesh.
 
  • #786
What's wrong with killing al Qaeda?
 
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  • #787
Maylis said:
What's wrong with killing al Qaeda?
In Syria it's a terrible faux pas to kill al Qaeda, since there we prefer to define them as moderate democrats, allies in our quest to remove the established government and create a new failed state. :rolleyes:
 
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  • #789
lisab said:
So, are the rebels we're arming the same ones the Russians are bombing?
Good question. I have no clue. My understanding from the map in the previous link is that Russians are primarily targeting non-ISIS Islamist rebels. The main Islamist rebel group is the so-called Army of conquest (Jaysh Al-Fatah) which is a coalition containing A Qaeda-affiliate Al Nusra group along with Ahrar Al-Sham which is another self-identified Salafist group.

It's all very messy and I found it hard to dig deeper into the motivations, goals, and ideologies of each group and how they differ from each other. From the little I could gather, it seems they all are Jihadi-Salafist, which means they're anti-democracy, pro-Shariah militants, though they may not be aspiring for a global caliphate and hence are not expansionists. This seems as the only thing that sets them apart ideologically from ISIS.

In any case I hope the US is not arming or in any way helping these guys.
 
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  • #790
Russian goals in Syria - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...id-to-admit-real-syrian-goals-are-far-broader
On the ground, the military operation is expanding, with Syrian and Iranian forces using Russian air support to advance against rebel forces with the goal of recapturing strategic territory lost around the capital Damascus and the cities of Homs and Hama, as well as retaking Aleppo, the main commercial hub and second-biggest population center.
. . . .
Russia’s air attacks have mainly occurred in areas outside of Islamic State’s control so far. The U.S. State Department declined to comment on Russia’s broader aims in Syria. Earlier this month, U.S. officials said 90 percent of Russia’s strikes were on other rebel groups. Russian officials say the U.S. refuses to cooperate on targeting.
 
  • #791
lisab said:
So, are the rebels we're arming the same ones the Russians are bombing?

Are we at the beginning of a proxy war between the US and Russia?
Overnight BBC radio (Stephen Sackur) interviewed Robert Stephen Ford, former ambassador to Syria. He said the US CIA is supplying advanced anti-tank missiles to rebels upon whom the Syrian army, closely supported by the Russian air force, recently tried to advance. Ford said the Syrian army lost 25 tanks in the battle. The Russians are bombing all rebel groups who threaten the stability and the government of Syria, they say.

The Syrian army is getting tired. They are being increasingly supported by Iranian trained troops led by experienced Iranian officers, and now by Russian air power - although the Russians appear to be resisting putting boots on the ground. To me this seems to be a proxy war, although it could sure get a lot worse.
 
  • #792
I don't know about 25 tanks but they did shoot one bulldozer.
 
  • #793
I feel sorry for the women, pregnant women. the children and the elderly, it is pretty hard to endure a war, food becomes scarce, piped water supply might be cut, unless living near to a river makes it a bit bearable and hope none of your family gets hurt, If anyone of us is there suffering through, we would be wondering why the rest of the world does not help, why do they aloud this to happen. I hope we are there on those bases, appealing to the morals and principles of the American people and rest of the rich world.
 
  • #794
[QUOTE="Dotini, post: 5262956, member: ]

The Syrian army is getting tired. They are being increasingly supported by Iranian trained troops led by experienced Iranian officers, and now by Russian air power - although the Russians appear to be resisting putting boots on the ground. [/QUOTE]do you have a source for that assessment of "tired"?
 
  • #795
Kissinger has an essay out on Syria and ISIS. Like the recent Bob Gates and Rice essay he's very critical of the current policy.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-path-out-of-the-middle-east-collapse-1445037513

[ quote ]That geopolitical pattern is now in shambles. Four states in the region have ceased to function as sovereign. Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq have become targets for nonstate movements seeking to impose their rule. Over large swaths in Iraq and Syria, an ideologically radical religious army has declared itself the Islamic State (also called ISIS or ISIL) as an unrelenting foe of established world order. It seeks to replace the international system’s multiplicity of states with a caliphate, a single Islamic empire governed by Shariah law.[/quote ]

And he has a plan
 
  • #796
Kissinger has an essay out on Syria and ISIS. Like the recent Bob Gates and Rice essay he's very critical of the current policy.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-path-out-of-the-middle-east-collapse-1445037513

That geopolitical pattern is now in shambles. Four states in the region have ceased to function as sovereign. Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq have become targets for nonstate movements seeking to impose their rule. Over large swaths in Iraq and Syria, an ideologically radical religious army has declared itself the Islamic State (also called ISIS or ISIL) as an unrelenting foe of established world order. It seeks to replace the international system’s multiplicity of states with a caliphate, a single Islamic empire governed by Shariah law.

And he has a plan

So long as ISIS survives and remains in control of a geographically defined territory, it will compound all Middle East tensions. Threatening all sides and projecting its goals beyond the region, it freezes existing positions or tempts outside efforts to achieve imperial jihadist designs. The destruction of ISIS is more urgent than the overthrow of Bashar Assad, who has already lost over half of the area he once controlled. Making sure that this territory does not become a permanent terrorist haven must have precedence. The current inconclusive U.S. military effort risks serving as a recruitment vehicle for ISIS as having stood up to American might.

• The U.S. has already acquiesced in a Russian military role. Painful as this is to the architects of the 1973 system, attention in the Middle East must remain focused on essentials. And there exist compatible objectives. In a choice among strategies, it is preferable for ISIS-held territory to be reconquered either by moderate Sunni forces or outside powers than by Iranian jihadist or imperial forces. For Russia, limiting its military role to the anti-ISIS campaign may avoid a return to Cold War conditions with the U.S.

• The reconquered territories should be restored to the local Sunni rule that existed there before the disintegration of both Iraqi and Syrian sovereignty. The sovereign states of the Arabian Peninsula, as well as Egypt and Jordan, should play a principal role in that evolution. After the resolution of its constitutional crisis, Turkey could contribute creatively to such a process.

• As the terrorist region is being dismantled and brought under nonradical political control, the future of the Syrian state should be dealt with concurrently. A federal structure could then be built between the Alawite and Sunni portions. If the Alawite regions become part of a Syrian federal system, a context will exist for the role of Mr. Assad, which reduces the risks of genocide or chaos leading to terrorist triumph.

• The U.S. role in such a Middle East would be to implement the military assurances in the traditional Sunni states that the administration promised during the debate on the Iranian nuclear agreement, and which its critics have demanded.

• In this context, Iran’s role can be critical. The U.S. should be prepared for a dialogue with an Iran returning to its role as a Westphalian state within its established borders.

In short, focus on ISIS not Assad. Enlist Sunni states Jordan and Egypt to destroy ISIS, by arms agreements as was done decades ago, which at the same time forms a counter to Shia Iran. Stand ready to negotiate with Iran nonetheless.

I question how to deal with Israeli objections to closer western ties and arms agreements with Jordan/Eygypt, but Israel is unable to help with ISIS. At least this plan is coherent.
 
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  • #797
Russia has big successes in bombing FSA (45 dead including civilians), while it seems (unconfirmed) that 3 Russian "advisers" are on their way back home in coffins:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...ill-45-including-rebel-commander-monitor.htmlMheslep:"The Syrian army has been decimated by four years of fighting, with the number of soldiers dropping due to casualties and desertions from a pre-civil war strength of around 300,000 to about 80,000 to 100,000, according to diplomatic sources in Beirut. Even the emergence of numerous loyalist militias – including foreign Shia fighters from Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan – is proving insufficient to hold onto the further reaches of the country, let alone decisively defeat the rebel forces."

Assad:
“There is a lack of human resources [in the army] … the problem facing the military is not related to planning but to fatigue"
“It is normal that an army gets tired, but there’s a difference between fatigue and defeat. … We are not collapsing. … The word defeat does not exist in the Syrian army’s dictionary.”http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/7/27/with-armys-fatigue-assad-pulls-forces-back.html
 
  • #798
mheslep said:
And he has a plan
It's more like a wish list than a plan to be honest. Or at best a plan with HUGE hurdles.

it is preferable for ISIS-held territory to be reconquered either by moderate Sunni forces
Are there any right now? I really wish I could convince myself they exist, even if we have to stretch the term "moderate" a little bit.

or outside powers
mheslep said:
Enlist Sunni states Jordan and Egypt to destroy ISIS, by arms agreements as was done decades ago
This sounds more like a fantasy. If by "decades ago" you're alluding to the first gulf war, then the Arabic/Sunni contribution was tiny, almost symbolic, compared to the American forces (which doesn't seem to be on the table this time round). I can't speak about Jordan, but I have seen no evidence that the Egyptian forces are capable of mounting such an attack, especially that they seem to be struggling with ISIS affiliated insurgents in their own borders. El-Sisi might be tempted to take on a leading role in such a plan so that the west ignores how much of an oppressive maniac he is, but he'll also be very cautious that the likely failure might cost him everything.
Another problem is that neither Egypt nor Jordan have a huge incentive to fight, and Iraq was a very good illustration of how important motives are in this war. Arms agreements and closer ties to the US won't cut it, and Arabic nationalistic sentiment isn't particularly high at the moment.

mheslep said:
focus on ISIS
The Russians need to be convinced of that as well. In the unlikely case that Arab states agree to take a leading role in an offensive inside Syrian borders, Assad will see this as a threat to his rule and there must be guarantees that the Russians won't be convinced to interfere on his side against this new coalition.
 
  • #799
Czcibor said:
Mheslep:

"The Syrian army has been decimated by four years of fighting, with the number of soldiers dropping due to casualties and desertions from a pre-civil war strength of around 300,000 to about 80,000 to 100,000, according to diplomatic sources in Beirut. Even the emergence of numerous loyalist militias – including foreign Shia fighters from Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan – is proving insufficient to hold onto the further reaches of the country, let alone decisively defeat the rebel forces."

Assad:
“There is a lack of human resources [in the army] … the problem facing the military is not related to planning but to fatigue"
“It is normal that an army gets tired, but there’s a difference between fatigue and defeat. … We are not collapsing. … The word defeat does not exist in the Syrian army’s dictionary.”

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/7/27/with-armys-fatigue-assad-pulls-forces-back.html

@mheslep
http://www.newsweek.com/assad-admits-syrian-army-suffering-shortages-and-setbacks-357568
According to the BBC, the Syrian army previously had 300,000 troops, but around 80,000 have been killed in the war. Defections and draft-avoiders have also contributed to lower numbers, Al Jazeera reports. Last month, the Syrian army renewed calls for young men to fulfill their military duty, promising better pay for frontline troops and at least one hot meal a day, The Associate Press reports.
 
  • #800
Peshmerga with US support save ~70 hostages from Daesh

Inside the ISIS Prison Raid That Left US Service Member Dead
https://gma.yahoo.com/us-military-adviser-dies-iraqi-rescue-mission-141440977--abc-news-topstories.htmlCarter: Soldier heroically entered Kurdish-IS firefight
http://news.yahoo.com/coalition-identifies-us-commando-killed-iraqi-raid-134749020.html#
 
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  • #801
  • #802
Chronos said:
he Iraqi government, under severe military pressure from insurgents, is apparently on the verge of collapse. They requested US military aid, but, were refused. Is it just me, or does anyone else find this disturbing?

I think it boils down to how many young soldiers are going to die?

There is no win-win situation, the last time I read about the complexity of being there was, that the American soldiers were getting shot from all sides (Sunnis, Shias )
Then the multifaceted terrorists groups were happy to rush to the conflicts where Americans and western countries were involved just to get a good shoot at the soldiers.
Add up that the cost of being there maybe was around a trillion, <----(inputs are welcome), our debt is in trillions too ( input is welcome). The economy strength of the dollar or our economy is/was ( you pick) touchy. The European countries along with America are not so excited about going in there any more (popularity loss?), I think Canada is pulling out (right?).

But then it also comes to what would you rather have spend all that money in the Middle East or fix the deficits in our economy? as Social security for example? Many states have huge deficits. I was wondering, all those men that rush out of Syria should have being trained and armed, send to fight for their country a Syrian draft, (instead of westerners ) and give the asylum to women, elders and children.
Tough decisions for any president or government of the Western Hemisphere. :frown:
 
  • #803
Guapa said:
I think it boils down to how many young soldiers are going to die?

There is no win-win situation, the last time I read about the complexity of being there was, that the American soldiers were getting shot from all sides (Sunnis, Shias )
Then the multifaceted terrorists groups were happy to rush to the conflicts where Americans and western countries were involved just to get a good shoot at the soldiers.
Add up that the cost of being there maybe was around a trillion, <----(inputs are welcome), our debt is in trillions too ( input is welcome). The economy strength of the dollar or our economy is/was ( you pick) touchy. The European countries along with America are not so excited about going in there any more (popularity loss?), I think Canada is pulling out (right?).

But then it also comes to what would you rather have spend all that money in the Middle East or fix the deficits in our economy? as Social security for example? Many states have huge deficits. I was wondering, all those men that rush out of Syria should have being trained and armed, send to fight for their country a Syrian draft, (instead of westerners ) and give the asylum to women, elders and children.
Tough decisions for any president or government of the Western Hemisphere. :frown:
I think that it would be an interesting idea... I doubt the effectiveness of such army... however seeing a face of Kosovian Albanian who pretends being a Syrian would be a worthy... ;)

That's Western EU... curious how many of them would immediately declare being conscientious objectors... So far they deserve top grades for gaming the system...
 
  • #804
:rolleyes: Kosovian Albanian, soldiers?

The Irak-Bush II war cost I think 3000 American dead soldiers and I think 500,000 wounded. (clarification is welcome) .

The groups involved:
Syrian Gov. Forces and:Ba'ath Brigades[1], PFLP–GC[2], Syrian Social Nationalist Party[3], Arab Nationalist Guard[4], Syrian Resistance [5], Jaysh alMuwahhideen[3],Forces of Abu Ibrahim[6],Sootoro, Palestine Liberation Army[7],Liwa Abu al-Fadhal al-Abbas[8], Liwa Fatemiyoun[9], Fatah al-Intifada[10], Badr Organization[11], Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq[11], Kata'ib Hezbollah[12], Peace Companies[13], Arab Democratic Party[14], DHKP-C[15], Faylak Wa’ad al-Sadiq[16], Houthis[17]
Jaysh al-Wafaa[18], Liwa Al Quds, Liwa Dhu al-Fiqar[19][20], Dareh al-Sahel[21], Dareh al-Areen[21], Al-Hosn[21], Dareh al-Watan[21], al-Berri clan[22][23], Tayy tribe militias[24], al-Jihesh tribe militias[25], Maghawir Forces[26], Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Popular Committees (2012), Syria Slavonic Corps[27][28] (2013),InfoboxHez.PNG Hezbollah[29], Iran[30][31][32], Quds Force[33], Basij[34][35][36], Revolutionary Guards[37], Russia[38], Armament support:, Russia[39][40], North Korea[41][42][43], Iraq[44]
Belarus[45], Egypt (from 2015)[46][better source needed], Cuba[47], Non-lethal support: Venezuela[48][49][50][51][52], Angola[53], China[54][55] Algeria[56]


Here We (?) are, notice at the very bottom:
Syrian oppositon and al Qaeda Network:

Allied armed groups:

Joint operations rooms:[85]

Armament support:

  • Qatar[111][112]
  • Saudi Arabia[111][113]
  • Turkey
  • 23px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png
    United States[114][115]
  • France[116]
  • Libya[117] (until 2014)
  • Egypt (until 2013)
  • United Arab Emirates(until 2014)[118][119][120]
  • Jordan (until 2014)[121]
Non-lethal support:

Wikipedia source

We have some jihadist in our side or we are in their side for first, second, third? time in history? (some time we are friends and some times we are not)
So at one moment we are fighting al Qaeda and at another time we are "joined" or help ( input is welcome) al Qaeda. Pretty interesting situation. So it is not like we are not helping I believe. Just American foot soldiers (Army?) are not (?) thoroughly involved in the fighting I think. Very very complex indeed. Exhaustion might be the key for everyone to pack and go home, where ever home is. Let the water finds its level and come back another time.
 
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  • #805
Britain's Tony Blair: Iraq war contributed to rise of IS
Blair insisted that removing Saddam was the right thing to do, but apologized, as he has before, for failures in post-war planning.
http://news.yahoo.com/tony-blair-iraq-war-contributed-rise-101116941.html
 
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  • #806
IS blows up columns in Syria's Palmyra to execute 3: monitor
http://news.yahoo.com/blows-columns-syrias-palmyra-execute-3-monitor-204112651.html

Daesh = deranged and demented

Since the jihadists seized Palmyra from regime forces in May, they have destroyed multiple sites and historic artefacts, including its celebrated temples of Bel and Baal Shamin as well as several funerary towers.

IS has used Palmyra's grand amphitheatre for a massacre in which child members of the group killed 25 Syrian soldiers, execution-style, in front of residents.

It also beheaded Palmyra's 82-year-old former antiquities director in August.
 
  • #807
I've recently watched an interview with Julian Assange with regards to Syria's situation.
It turns out there were documents dating back to 2006 on plans to undermine the Syrian government.
 
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  • #808
fargoth said:
I've recently watched an interview with Julian Assange with regards to Syria's situation.
It turns out there were documents dating back to 2006 on plans to undermine the Syrian government.
That's pretty surprising. Syria has been a dictatorship led by the Assad family for 40 years. I would have expected plans to undermine it to have been kicked-around since the '80s.
 
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  • #809
russ_watters said:
That's pretty surprising. Syria has been a dictatorship led by the Assad family for 40 years. I would have expected plans to undermine it to have been kicked-around since the '80s.

I don't think the US has a problem with dictatorships.. They support\undermine them when there is a geopolitical\economical reason to do so, the human rights angle is just an excuse.
The Shah of Iran is one example. The situation in Saudi Arabia in terms of human rights is much worse than the one which existed in Syria prior to the uprising, yet I'm pretty sure the US does not plot to destabilize it (being it's ally). And what about Brunei, starting to apply the death penalty for being gay? Obama called it's Sultan one of his best friends (look up The Sultan and Nipples fleet - Last week tonight on youtube).
 
  • #810
fargoth said:
I don't think the US has a problem with dictatorships.. They support\undermine them when there is a geopolitical\economical reason to do so, the human rights angle is just an excuse.
The Shah of Iran is one example. The situation in Saudi Arabia in terms of human rights is much worse than the one which existed in Syria prior to the uprising, yet I'm pretty sure the US does not plot to destabilize it (being it's ally). And what about Brunei, starting to apply the death penalty for being gay? Obama called it's Sultan one of his best friends (look up The Sultan and Nipples fleet - Last week tonight on youtube).

I think that you try to shock Russ with info that US could accommodate some dictators... I'm as surprised by this info as he is :D
I think, that you did not get his message. That's not about "fighting dictators", it's about some "long term, usually low intensity confrontation with Assad family".
 

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