News Iraqi unrest, Syrian unrest, and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh

[Evan Maxwell]

^^^ Indeed it isn't. But it is the hard truth. ISIS attracts the kind of people who WANT their education to revolve around madrassas. And furthermore, ISIS has been attracted members from well education, relatively privileged backgrounds from all over the Middle East, Europe and elsewhere. The US State Department saying that giving them more jobs will convince them not to try and dominate the world and execute those who won't fall in line is just mortifying. Dare I say that in terms of sheer ignorance it tops anything said by the Bush administration about these terror groups and their motivations.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Problems with the "give them jobs" theory:
Osama bin Laden - college educated multimillionaire
Mohammed Atta - son of a lawyer
Nidal Hasan - medical doctor
al Zawahiri - surgeon
Faisal Shahzad - finance guy for, all of placed, Elizabeth Arden

It's a nice story, but the data suggests otherwise.

 

[lisab]

Problems with the "give them jobs" theory:
Osama bin Laden - college educated multimillionaire
Mohammed Atta - son of a lawyer
Nidal Hasan - medical doctor
al Zawahiri - surgeon
Faisal Shahzad - finance guy for, all of placed, Elizabeth Arden

It's a nice story, but the data suggests otherwise.

But those are the leaders. I doubt many engineers, lawyers, or surgeons are successfully recruited to be suicide bombers or cannon fodder.

I don't think lack of jobs is the cause of all this mess, but I do think it contributes.

 

[Evan Maxwell]

^^^ There is a disturbing amount of evidence that suicide bombers quite often come from the middle class:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2008/01/08/suicide-bombers-warriors-of-the-middle-class/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/31/us-syria-usa-bomber-exclusive-idUSKBN0EB0XX20140531

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...yria-suicide-bomber-aid-worker-randeep-ramesh

http://www.factsandlogic.org/ad_98.html

At the very least, the evidence is clear that those who are recruited to be suicide bombers are not overwhelmingly those who would otherwise be beggars on the streets or hanging around in dark corners with nowhere else to go and no other opportunities. More often than not, even if they are not scientists, doctors, lawyers or engineers, they are still willing to leave reasonably stable, comfortable lives behind in order to be suicide bombers.

 

[Bystander]

Osama bin Laden - college educated multimillionaire

Center of a personality cult. Leader? Didn't do a whole lot of his own dirty work.

Mohammed Atta - son of a lawyer

Suicide cannon fodder.

Nidal Hasan - medical doctor

"Shrink" --- and all that that implies; marginal OERs; career heading for 20 years and out on the "up or out" rule(s), and no chance outside. Attempted suicide by cop?

al Zawahiri - surgeon

Encouraged others to do the dirty work.

Faisal Shahzad

Car bombing cannon fodder.

Five names, three suicides (one unsuccessful), two "leaders" who did not so much "lead" as they "inspired" others to get themselves killed. Little tough to sell the "job corps" solution with this list.

 

[russ_watters]

A surprisingly strongly worded op-ed from CNN on this:

Already a predictable tsunami of nonsense has washed over us about the "root causes" of terrorism. We have heard from Obama administration officials and even the President himself that terrorism has something to do with lack of opportunities and poverty. Obama said on Wednesday that "we have to address grievances terrorists exploit, including economic grievances."

Some leaders and foot-soldiers were listed above, but how about some stats:

Indeed, New America has studied the backgrounds of some 250 U.S.-based militants since 9/11 who have been indicted in or convicted of some kind of jihadist terrorist crime. They are on average middle class, reasonably well-educated family men with kids. They are, in short, ordinary Americans.

Similarly, in his important 2004 book "Understanding Terror Networks," psychiatrist Marc Sageman, a former CIA case officer, examined the backgrounds of 172 militants who were part of al Qaeda or a similar group. Just under half were professionals; two-thirds were either middle or upper class and had gone to college; indeed, several had doctorates.

So both American who join foreign militant groups and the foreign militants themselves tend to be middle class. Analysis:

The diagnosis that poverty, lack of education or lack of opportunities have much to do with terrorism requires a fundamentally optimistic view of human nature. This diagnosis leads to the prognosis that all we need to do to solve the terrorism problem is to create societies that are less poor, better educated and have more opportunities.

The fact is, working stiffs with few opportunities and scant education are generally too busy getting by to engage in revolutionary projects to remake society. And history, in fact, shows us that terrorism is generally a bourgeois endeavor. This was http://www.democracyjournal.org/4/6521.phpof the Russian anarchists of the late 19th century as it was of the German Marxists of the Baader-Meinhof gang of the 1970s and of the Japanese terrorist group Aum Shinrikyo in the 1990s.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/19/opinion/bergen-terrorism-root-causes/index.html

I must admit to sharing that optimism, though I do recognize it is, unfortunately possible to turn relatively ordinary people into extremists (see: Germany, 1930s). I think in theory it makes a lot of sense to say that a person with a stable job has more to lose by turning to extremism and less to complain about, but clearly the reality is much more complicated and other factors have a bigger impact. .

 

[Pythagorean]

CNN links a book for their "172 militants..." line, and reading the synopsis yielded this interesting perspective:

Using public documents, Sageman tells us that the motivation to join a militant organization does not necessarily stem from extreme poverty or extreme religious devotion but mostly from the need to escape a sense of alienation. He also disproves conventional wisdom that terrorist groups employ a "top-down" approach to recruiting, showing instead that many cells evolve from friendships and kinships and that the seeds of sedition grow as certain members of a cell influence the thinking of the others.

 

[Astronuc]

Poverty could be one cause, but so could deprivation or disaffection. Perhaps it is difficult to imagine how otherwise intelligent folks become nihilistic, apocalyptic, or otherwise violent against those who do not share their ideology or world view. It is found in all cultures/societies.

Perhaps there is some degree of mental illness involved.

 

[HossamCFD]

It is perhaps worth stressing on the fact that these Jihadists have an unimaginably strong belief that their doing the will of god, the duty that, in their minds, muslims have forsaken for centuries.

A lot of Daesh's world view and theology, though not their brutality, is shared by many non-violent Salafists*. The vast majority of Salafists have theological views that are very close to Daesh, though they are simply not ready to act on them. However, in the midst of a civil war it's not hard to imagine that some of them would start acting on those beliefs.

From my personal experience, Salafists are overrepresented in the middle and upper-middle classes. So I don't see poverty and unemployment as main causes. Though in the cases of Charlie Hebdo and Copenhagen shootings the terrorists had criminal pasts which could be partially due to financial reasons.

I do believe however that lack of quality education is a main factor. And by that I don't mean simply getting a degree in engineering or medicine. I mean educational programs that from early age promote critical thinking and questioning of ones beliefs. The lack of such education results in individuals who, although might be accomplished in their technical careers, often hold ridiculous beliefs. I know a lot of Engineers and academics with Ph.Ds who believe things like the moon landing was a hoax and evolution is a conspiracy.
*Salaf is Arabic for predecessors or founding fathers. Salafism is a movement that calls for practising Islam the way its founders did. It became widespread in the middle east starting from the 70's.

 

[Astronuc]

Of course, the Syrian (al Asad's troops) are also committing horrific crimes.

Syria forces execute 10 children of rebels: monitor
http://news.yahoo.com/syria-forces-execute-10-children-alleged-rebels-monitor-142203604.html

Beirut (AFP) - Ten children were among at least 48 people killed in a Syrian village this week when regime forces executed six families of rebel fighters, a monitoring group said on Saturday.

 

[Astronuc]

ISIS Turns to Chemical Weapons As It Loses Ground in Iraq
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/isis-turns-chemical-weapons-loses-120000404.html

A few weeks ago, the US Central Command announced that an air raid had killed an ISIS chemical weapon expert in Mosul. The ISIS operative, Iraqi engineer Mahmoud al-Sabawi, used to work at Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons program before he joined al-Qaeda in Iraq after the 2003 US led invasion.

The idea that ISIS terrorists have access to chemical weapons brings back images of the genocide inflicted on the Kurds by Saddam Hussein in the late 1980’s. The Halabja Massacre killed up to 5,000 and injured between 7,000 and 10,000 more.

It looks like it will get nasty.

And the Daesh seems to be experiencing internal conflicts.

Some signs of tension emerge among Islamic State militants
http://news.yahoo.com/signs-tension-emerge-among-islamic-state-militants-195457697.html

Extremists remain a formidable force, and the group's hold on about a third of Iraq and Syria remains firm. But it appears to be on the defensive in Syria for the first time since it swept through the territory last year and is suffering from months of U.S.-led coalition airstrikes and the myriad factions fighting it on the ground.

"They are struggling with new challenges that did not exist before," said Lina Khatib, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

 

[Evan Maxwell]

I definitely have to doubt there is mental illness of any kind here. I think these people are by and large very sane and know what they are doing and feel their religious beliefs justify it. I think that given we acknowledge it here in the US when people use their deeply held religious beliefs to infringe on others' basic rights and that they know what they are doing that it makes sense to acknowledge it here. There are, in a nutshell, religious fundamentalists who think what they are doing is ordained and commanded by God. nothing more and nothing less.

 

[Dotini]

Poverty could be one cause, but so could deprivation or disaffection. Perhaps it is difficult to imagine how otherwise intelligent folks become nihilistic, apocalyptic, or otherwise violent against those who do not share their ideology or world view. It is found in all cultures/societies.

Perhaps there is some degree of mental illness involved.

As much as I might otherwise enjoy mocking Marie Harf, I must admit there is some truth - but not all the truth - in her favor.

In addition to all the other motivations advanced here, I would add revenge for the US invasion of Iraq. Unemployed bureaucrats and Iraqi soldiers displaced by de-Baathification formed many new Sunni militias.

I definitely have to doubt there is mental illness of any kind here. I think these people are by and large very sane and know what they are doing and feel their religious beliefs justify it. I think that given we acknowledge it here in the US when people use their deeply held religious beliefs to infringe on others' basic rights and that they know what they are doing that it makes sense to acknowledge it here. There are, in a nutshell, religious fundamentalists who think what they are doing is ordained and commanded by God. nothing more and nothing less.

Not to be disagreeing with anyone here, but they wouldn't be doing what they are now if we hadn't invaded and occupied their lands, IMO. Most of it is simple revenge.

 

[mheslep]

...

Not to be disagreeing with anyone here, but they wouldn't be doing what they are now if we hadn't invaded and occupied their lands, IMO. Most of it is simple revenge.

What, in 1095? Who are "they"? Who are "we"?

 

[Bystander]

Perhaps there is some degree of mental illness involved.

Intercultural application of standards of mental health is a perilous enterprise at best. Projection of western ambitions, dreams, and goals onto middle eastern cultures is likewise doomed to lead to misunderstandings and policy failures.

 

[HossamCFD]

What, in 1095? Who are "they"? Who are "we"?

I think he meant the 2003 invasion of Iraq, as he mentioned in the first part of the comment. I agree that revenge plays a part. The invasion made the anti-western narrative more appealing and hence facilitated the recruitment process. But I do not think it spawned the ideology, the world view, and the willingness to sacrifice one's life for their beliefs. All pre-date the invasion of Iraq.

 

[russ_watters]

I think he meant the 2003 invasion of Iraq, as he mentioned in the first part of the comment. I agree that revenge plays a part. The invasion made the anti-western narrative more appealing and hence facilitated the recruitment process. But I do not think it spawned the ideology, the world view, and the willingness to sacrifice one's life for their beliefs. All pre-date the invasion of Iraq.

If revenge for the 2003 Iraq invasion is a motivation, then for the most part they are killing the wrong people.

 

[Pythagorean]

If revenge for the 2003 Iraq invasion is a motivation, then for the most part they are killing the wrong people.

It wasn't the invasion itself, persay, as much as the post-clean-up. The U.S. gets blamed for leaving a power vacuum in a feudal region (and not for the first time). It fits a narrative where the US only dabbles in the middle-east over it's economic interests and doesn't care how it leaves the regions where it dabbles.

 

[HossamCFD]

If revenge for the 2003 Iraq invasion is a motivation, then for the most part they are killing the wrong people.

In their tradition, a muslim who cooperates with the enemy is even more accountable (and more easily reached) than the enemy. In their eyes, everyone who worked in the army, police, judiciary system, or high up in the government that's seen as a puppet for the west is regarded as a traitor. This applies to both Sunni and Shia, but there is more contempt for Shia on theological basis.

The invasion might have helped with establishing ISIS predecessor, Al-Zarqawi group. In that sense I think it played a part in the initial developments as well as causing the destabilization of Iraq which created the environment for Al Qaeda affiliated groups to flourish. I do not think that, in the mind of an ISIS fighter, revenge is a big motivation for what he's doing. Instead I think the biggest motivation is what they confess: re-establishing the lost caliphate that will be feared by the enemies of Islam, even if those enemies claim to be muslim.

 

[jim hardy]

It wasn't the invasion itself, persay, as much as the post-clean-up. The U.S. gets blamed for leaving a power vacuum in a feudal region (and not for the first time). It fits a narrative where the US only dabbles in the middle-east over it's economic interests and doesn't care how it leaves the regions where it dabbles.

Rightness or wrongness of a decision is in the follow-through.

https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/

I'd wager Bush cared plenty about how he left the region. Remember he's "Born Again" and probably thought of it somewhat like a missionary.

When President Bush met his envoy, L. Paul Bremer, at the U.S. air base in Qatar in June 2003, less than two months after the fall of Baghdad, the difficulties of bringing the two sides together seemed foremost in his mind. According to Bremer’s memoir, My Year in Iraq (2006), Bush asked if the American attempt to bring representative democracy to Iraq would succeed. “Will they be able to run a free country?” the president asked. “Some of the Sunni leaders in the region doubt it. They say, ‘All Shia are liars.’ What’s your impression?”

interesting article here:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/244162771/Hoover-Digest-2014-No-4-Fall#page=9

Two men bear direct responsibility for the mayhem engulfing Iraq: Barack Obama and Nouri al-Maliki.

 

[Pythagorean]

@jim hardy

I don't know whether Bush cared or not, but I am only commenting on perception of the US, not the actual US. When I say it fits a narrative, I don't mean to imply the narrative is true (and I'm not now implying that it's false) <--- not implying that it's true with that last statement. <--- not an implication that it was false here.

I'm sure the truth is more complicated than can fit in one cohesive narrative.

I do not think that, in the mind of an ISIS fighter, revenge is a big motivation for what he's doing. Instead I think the biggest motivation is what they confess: re-establishing the lost caliphate that will be feared by the enemies of Islam, even if those enemies claim to be muslim.

I don't think it's this either (at least not for most of them - there's certainly a distribution of different motivations for different soldiers). I think it basically comes down to money and power. ISIS is essentially an out-of-control organized crime network. Religion is always a nice way to justify your greedy actions, but every time there's been a serious conflict, there has always been materialistic goals. Religious excuses sometimes ride on top of the materialistic goals, but the religious excuses are cherry picked from religious literature and to match the material goals and religious authorities speaking against the behavior (fatwas in this case) are ignored.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/06/world/meast/isis-funding/

 

[Borg]

A lot of Daesh's world view and theology, though not their brutality, is shared by many non-violent Salafists*. The vast majority of Salafists have theological views that are very close to Daesh, though they are simply not ready to act on them. However, in the midst of a civil war it's not hard to imagine that some of them would start acting on those beliefs.

From my personal experience, Salafists are overrepresented in the middle and upper-middle classes. So I don't see poverty and unemployment as main causes.

Do you think that it's possible that the three girls from the UK who are all over the news are idealistically following the beliefs of their parents?

 

[russ_watters]

It wasn't the invasion itself, persay, as much as the post-clean-up. The U.S. gets blamed for leaving a power vacuum in a feudal region (and not for the first time). It fits a narrative where the US only dabbles in the middle-east over it's economic interests and doesn't care how it leaves the regions where it dabbles.

OK...so, still?

 

[HossamCFD]

I don't think it's this either (at least not for most of them - there's certainly a distribution of different motivations for different soldiers). I think it basically comes down to money and power. ISIS is essentially an out-of-control organized crime network. Religion is always a nice way to justify your greedy actions, but every time there's been a serious conflict, there has always been materialistic goals. Religious excuses sometimes ride on top of the materialistic goals, but the religious excuses are cherry picked from religious literature and to match the material goals and religious authorities speaking against the behavior (fatwas in this case) are ignored.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/06/world/meast/isis-funding/

I agree to some extent when it comes to their leaders, or the ex-Baathists who joined ISIS ranks. I can also see the whole slavery thing being a motivation for the sick minded. But for the foot soldier who exchanged a middle class life in a stable country for a medieval life in the desert and who knows that his life will most likely end in a couple of months by an air strike, I don't think an earthly reason could provide enough motivation.

 

[mheslep]

I agree that revenge plays a part. The invasion made the anti-western narrative more appealing and hence facilitated the recruitment process.

I suspect the Iraq invasion-revenge narrative, such as it exists, is mainly useful to play on western internal self-division, self-doubt, and self-blame. There are numerous examples of pre-2003 radical Islamic violent uprisings that drew rally-round-the-caliphate fighters.

 

[jim hardy]

When I say it fits a narrative, I don't mean to imply the narrative is true

i understood what you meant by "fits a narrative". i know you're a thoughtful sort, no offense meant

Ever read Conrad's "Typhoon" ?

thanks..
old jim

 

[HossamCFD]

Do you think that it's possible that the three girls from the UK who are all over the news are idealistically following the beliefs of their parents?

It doesn't have to come directly from the parents. Most of my friends who went through a religious phase and self-identified as salafis at some point in their lives had liberal parents who didn't quite approve of the change. Also from what I read about this particular case it seems that the girls may have had humanitarian reasons and had delusions about what ISIS is really doing. Though I'm not entirely sure about that.

 

[HossamCFD]

I suspect the Iraq invasion-revenge narrative, such as it exists, is mainly useful to play on western internal self-division, self-doubt, and self-blame. There are numerous examples of pre-2003 radical Islamic violent uprisings that drew rally-round-the-caliphate fighters.

Radical violent islamism definitely predates 2003 and even the 1991 gulf war. You can almost trace this world view to Sayyid Qutb's 'milestones'. Although he didn't really invent it from thin air.

 

[Pythagorean]

@jim hardy : I hadn't read that one in the time I read fiction for leisure. For whatever reason, since academia, I haven't been able to enjoy fiction (not because I don't like fiction, but because reading is work)

I don't think an earthly reason could provide enough motivation.

Perhaps we've transcended the other animals, but somehow I doubt it. In my limited anecdotes don't see this much momentum put into pious goals, I only see pious language dressed up on material goals and often contradictory - Islam, the religion of peace, but peace must come by gun (paraphrasing an ISIS soldier from VICE's The Islamic State.)

 

[mheslep]

Wright's "The Looming Tower" opens with Qutb's 1948 arrival in the US and his eventual rejection of the west, so that source takes him as a 20th century beginning of sorts via the Moslem Brotherhood that leads all the way to 911.

"The west is to blame" narrative is used by others; Venezuela's fearless leader arrests and beats opposition leaders on even days of the week,http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/us-venezuela-oil-idUSKBN0K802020141230 on odd days, and that has long been a dance rhythm of leftist Latin dictators. Clearly, Latin America has seen U.S. meddling in the past, and the strongmen use the past for every woe that they now cause.