News Is Donald Trump Really Considering a Presidential Run in 2012?

[mheslep]

I can speak for neither mheslep nor Gokul43201, but I think the point the latter was trying to make was that income tax will increase Jan 1 2011 for those making at least ~$34,000, depending on the exact cutoff for the tax brackets and filing status.

Exactly.

Of course, strictly speaking, this is not Obama but the current Congress.

Well that was also known when Obama made the 'pledge' - Congressional action required to extend postpone tax increases. To fulfill the pledge, seems to me he would have had to at least proposed forcefully that Congress eliminate increases for the under $250k brackets.

 

[russ_watters]

He has a successful resume.

I'm not sure I agree. He or his companies have been bankrupt many times. And he has a reputation in the construction industry for making projects work financially by not paying his bills.

rofl? That's a disappointing post. It's one thing to point out his lack of political office experience, but mocking his business acumen? Trump doesn't run lemonade stands. Exactly what do you believe is involved in starting high risk real estate businesses in NYC, or starting businesses in the US in general for that matter?

Yes, the real-estate business is high risk. But I'd consider a bankrupcy to be a failure, not a win, wouldn't you?

How many jobs do you imagine Trump has created along the way as opposed to, say, some community coordinator?

I'm sure he's created a ton of jobs, but the bankrupcies would also tend to destroy a ton of jobs, so I'm not sure if the net would be all that positive.

 

[mheslep]

That is part of what I am saying : the majority wants to vote for somebody else. But then please go to the next page : every single specific opponent looses against him.

I've seen the rest, but of course we don't know who the opponent is going to be yet. I like Mitch Daniels (In), Pawlenty(Mn) for instance.

 

[mheslep]

Re Trumps failures, let's have some context please. Henry Ford' first two auto companies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Automobile_Company" and he went bankrupt.

 

[CAC1001]

Well, Trump could help Uncle Sam through bankruptcy.

Ref: http://www.mademan.com/mm/how-many-times-has-donald-trump-filed-bankruptcy.html
Oh, yeah - he's a great businessman - just what the country needs.

I don't think Donald Trump never has filed for bankruptcy. Certain companies of his have, but not he himself.

Also remember, there's two sides to his company almost failing: one the one hand, yes it looks bad that he almost crashed, however, that real-estate crash of the 1990s wiped out a lot of real-estate guys for good. Trump found himself deeply in debt, but recovered, and is a success again. That takes a lot of guts and tenacity to pull oneself through such a crappy situation. Most people get depressed over debt, Trump had hundreds of millions of dollars of it to deal with.

That said, I don't know if I'd want Trump as President.

Another thing that political opponents could use against him is his living quarters; seriously, anyone seen the interior of his apartment at the top of Trump Tower? Gold, marble, gold, marble, gold, marble, I mean it almost makes Versailles look cheap!

 

[russ_watters]

I predict the President will lose reelection if events continue on the current trend, given any half decent opposition candidate. I don't make that prediction lightly against an incumbent President who I grant is formidable as a politician, and given the reluctance of the electorate to put a Republican president in place along side the pending Republican House.

But given his campaign tax pledge:

is going out the window as of Jan 1 without even a vote for a great many Americans http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...ciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison" 2.0 with a similar result.

2001: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2001#Income_tax
2003: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_a...nciliation_Act_of_2003#Tax_bracket_comparison

I stated soon after he was elected that given the timing of the recession it would be a near foregone conclusion that he'd get re-elected in four years. But if the economy is all that matters and he allows the tax cuts to expire without a fight and if economic growth is still low and unemployment still high, he may not be able to get much traction out of the typical campaign rhetorical question incumbents ask: "are you better off than you were 4 years ago".

At this point, there is a pretty substantial possibility of him being a one-termer, but the Republicans will need to field a quality, moderate opponent.

 

[russ_watters]

Re Trumps failures, let's have some context please. Henry Ford' first two auto companies failed. Walt Disney's first attempt failed and he went bankrupt.

Somehow their failures have not followed them around and created a reputation for failure like his have. Maybe that's just perception, but it is an extremely prevalent perception.

 

[CAC1001]

I'm sure he's created a ton of jobs, but the bankrupcies would also tend to destroy a ton of jobs, so I'm not sure if the net would be all that positive.

Depends on the type of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy doesn't always mean the enterprise stops functioning and goes out of business, it can be a tool to financially restructure a company.

 

[russ_watters]

Depends on the type of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy doesn't always mean the enterprise stops functioning and goes out of business, it can be a tool to financially restructure a company.

I'm not talking about the enterprise itself, I'm talking about all the businesses that lose money due to the vacating of the debt. AFAIK, none of his companies themselves were liquidated.

 

[Proton Soup]

Trump is a buffoon. all he does is talk about class and fires any of his beauty contest winners that slip up. but then he'll go on to talk about how classy Paris Hilton is, despite her producing amateur porn tapes and (just recently) arrested for cocaine possession. no judgment or values, just a keen sense of wanting acceptance from the wealthy.

i shudder to think how the man would redecorate the white house. Kasino Kitsch, anyone?

 

[CAC1001]

At this point, there is a pretty substantial possibility of him being a one-termer, but the Republicans will need to field a quality, moderate opponent.

I think the Republicans could field a conservative, they just need to make sure its not a Ron Paul type.

Somehow their failures have not followed them around and created a reputation for failure like his have. Maybe that's just perception, but it is an extremely prevalent perception.

Wasn't aware he has a reputation for failure.

 

[russ_watters]

Wasn't aware he has a reputation for failure.

He has two reputations I'm aware of: as a bankrupcy machine and a buffoon. Neither are good for an upstart politician.

If you weren't aware of the first, a google for "donald trump bankrupcy" yields plenty. Here's the first hit:

How Does Trump repeatedly file for Bankruptcy and still stay on top?
Monica Sanders - Oct 2005
Donald Trump has become infamous for telling business mogul wannabes "You're fired!" every week on primetime television. Yet, after Trump's casino operations filed bankruptcy for the second time this past November, many have wondered if it isn't time for board members to give Trump a pink slip. Despite the company failings, Trump will remain as chairman and CEO and continue to collect a $2 million dollar paycheck. So...how does a CEO decide to file for bankruptcy twice and still come out at the top of the heap?

http://www.legalzoom.com/legal-headlines/celebrity-lawsuits/how-does-trump-repeatedly-file

 

[mheslep]

Depends on the type of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy doesn't always mean the enterprise stops functioning and goes out of business, it can be a tool to financially restructure a company.

I'm not talking about the enterprise itself, I'm talking about all the businesses that lose money due to the vacating of the debt. AFAIK, none of his companies themselves were liquidated.

I agree with CAC1001. Usually capital investments are lost not jobs, especially in the real estate business where the problem is nearly always either the debt load or property taxes. These days under Chap 11 people actually working at or for the properties, doing cash flow making activities often keep their jobs, though maybe under a different owner or name, and the lenders or investors get wiped out.

 

[mheslep]

He has two reputations I'm aware of: as a bankrupcy machine

That's a machine that made just two bankruptcies, just like Ford.

 

[mheslep]

I think the Republicans could field a conservative, they just need to make sure its not a Ron Paul type.

How about a Rand Paul type instead?

 

[russ_watters]

That's a machine that made just two bankruptcies, just like Ford.

I count four*. But in any case, it isn't the number but the ratio of failure and success or the time since he's put the failure behind him. Disney and Ford have operated for decades without a bankrupcy. Trump's clock has been reset and now reads 1 year: If the bankrupcies of Ford and Disney are early failures that didn't prevent later success, we are left to ask with Trump: when does that "later success" happen?

*1991, 1992, 2005 & 2009. Also, somehow despite $900 million in personal debt he was able to avoid personal bankrupcy in the early '90s.

 

[CAC1001]

He has two reputations I'm aware of: as a bankrupcy machine and a buffoon. Neither are good for an upstart politician.

If you weren't aware of the first, a google for "donald trump bankrupcy" yields plenty. Here's the first hit:
http://www.legalzoom.com/legal-headlines/celebrity-lawsuits/how-does-trump-repeatedly-file

Don't know about being a buffoon, however his casino properties is not his entire company. Trump's Casinos are a publicly-owned company separate from his privately-owned company.

 

[CAC1001]

How about a Rand Paul type instead?

Don't know enough about him yet.

 

[russ_watters]

Don't know about being a buffoon, however his casino properties is not his entire company. Trump's Casinos are a publicly-owned company separate from his privately-owned company.

I don't see your point. It kinda sounds like you are trying to make excuses for his repeated failures.

 

[mheslep]

I count four*.

*1991, 1992, 2005 & 2009.

Hmm, I missed that?

Also, somehow despite $900 million in personal debt he was able to avoid personal bankrupcy in the early '90s.

Well its the net balance sheet over a few years that counts. The debt on your house and mine likely far exceeds our annual incomes and yet we avoid bankruptcy as well, even if the home values are underwater.

 

[russ_watters]

Well its the net balance sheet over a few years that counts. The debt on your house and mine likely far exceeds our annual incomes and yet we avoid bankruptcy as well, even if the home values are underwater.

Yes, but I haven't been forced to eliminate most of my debt due to inability to repay, have you? Sounds like he had a bankrupcy without the bankrupcy: When the risk is in the hundreds of millions, a bank may be willing to eliminate/restructure some without a bankrupcy due to the risk of losing it all in a bankrupcy.

 

[mheslep]

Yes, but I haven't been forced to eliminate most of my debt due to inability to repay, have you?

Not yet, but maybe I haven't tried hard enough. ;-)

Sounds like he had a bankrupcy without the bankrupcy: When the risk is in the hundreds of millions, a bank may be willing to eliminate/restructure some without a bankrupcy due to the risk of losing it all in a bankrupcy.

Sure, there's the old bankers line: loaning a $100k is is just a loan; loaning a $100M is is a partnership. I'm not crying for the bankers, unless Trump defrauded them. The bankers go into these deals because in the long run they know they're getting paid 4-6% above their own cost of money for years on large debt loads. Occasionally a chunk defaults on them, but overall they make out. And along the way strips of New York and Atlantic City become show places again after years of neglect because of guys like Trump, bankruptcies and all.

 

[Gokul43201]

Quote was from Sept. 12, 2008 in New Hampshire.
http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter...ily-making-less-250000-will-see-any-form-tax/

That's not the citation that I said was missing. I guess I wasn't being clear enough.

As of Jan 1, all of the Bush tax cuts will expire and taxes will increase on all income brackets that enjoyed cuts from '01 and '03.

In no way does this make a lie of Obama's pledge.

For that to happen, you need to show that expiration of tax cuts for the <$250,000 income group was a part of Obama's plan.

 

[CRGreathouse]

For that to happen, you need to show that expiration of tax cuts for the <$250,000 income group was a part of Obama's plan.

Clarification: Are you saying that President Obama intends to extend the tax cut, but Congress won't play ball? Or something else?

 

[loseyourname]

Come on, man, Trump's a joke. He's best known to the average American for having a bad fake-looking hairstyle and running a reality television show. He's best known in the business community for defaulting on his debt. He's best known in New York for somehow managing to slip through development projects that are forbidden to other developers because they transfer value from someone else's property to his by building above previous limits and blocking penthouse views, and he only got rich in the first place because of money and property he inherited from his father.

He's like the archetype of everything a common person hates about the corporate elite, with none of the Horatio Alger mythic self-made quality that makes us occasionally love the rich. He lives in a palace of marble and precious metals, for Christ's sake. His only political experience is somehow getting city planning commissions to repeatedly violate their own general plans so he can make money.

He'd be a complete disaster of a candidate.

So what if he's "created jobs?" That's becoming a stupid catch phrase. Give me an inherited fortune and the ability to borrow unlimited amounts of cash without having to pay it back and I'll create just as many jobs as he has. How exactly is that supposed to translate to being president? Is he going to sell bonds to the Chinese, build casinos in DC, and then default on the bonds?

 

[drankin]

Give me an inherited fortune and the ability to borrow unlimited amounts of cash without having to pay it back and I'll create just as many jobs as he has.

How about we do one better than that and just give you the Presidency? Oh wait...

 

[russ_watters]

Come on, man, Trump's a joke. He's best known to the average American for having a bad fake-looking hairstyle and running a reality television show.

I'm starting to think the characature of himself he plays on his reality TV show has improved his image. I'm really shocked that people are showing support for him here, seemingly unaware of his past reputation/public persona, before the TV show. Heck, I'd go so far as to say he's literally a joke: I'd bet he got the reality TV show for being the living characature of the rich corporate elite and he often stars in TV commercials making fun of himself for his characature. His "your fired!" slogan is playing on that characature.

 

[mheslep]

[...] So what if he's "created jobs?" That's becoming a stupid catch phrase. Give me an inherited fortune and the ability to borrow unlimited amounts of cash without having to pay it back

He started with a few million (<10 IIRC), and earned the right to borrow large sums by building highly profitable projects.

and I'll create just as many jobs as he has.

No comment on your personal abilities, but that's unlikely. Most people taking a shot at the real estate business, even when well financed, fail. The real estate road is especially littered with bankers and lawyers who for years loaned to guys like Trump and thought similarly, that anyone can do what that guy with bad hair does; then they become a primary in deal and find out that, no, its not so easy.

 

[mheslep]

That's not the citation that I said was missing. I guess I wasn't being clear enough.

In no way does this make a lie of Obama's pledge.

For that to happen, you need to show that expiration of tax cuts for the <$250,000 income group was a part of Obama's plan.

Clarification: Are you saying that President Obama intends to extend the tax cut, but Congress won't play ball? Or something else?

Yes I don't track this either Gokul. Are saying there's an Obama plan that somehow differs from that clear statement in the 2008 NH speech?

 

[CAC1001]

Come on, man, Trump's a joke. He's best known to the average American for having a bad fake-looking hairstyle and running a reality television show. He's best known in the business community for defaulting on his debt. He's best known in New York for somehow managing to slip through development projects that are forbidden to other developers because they transfer value from someone else's property to his by building above previous limits and blocking penthouse views, and he only got rich in the first place because of money and property he inherited from his father.

Trump did not inherit his father's fortune, he started from scratch.

He's like the archetype of everything a common person hates about the corporate elite, with none of the Horatio Alger mythic self-made quality that makes us occasionally love the rich. He lives in a palace of marble and precious metals, for Christ's sake. His only political experience is somehow getting city planning commissions to repeatedly violate their own general plans so he can make money.

Trump doesn't strike me as one of the elitist corporate elite types. For one, he is very pro-America. He doesn't seem like one of those corporate types who would sell America out in the name of profit. He also doesn't strike me as one of those elitist blue-blood types. Those kind are very private and like to stay out of the public eye. Trump is the total opposite, very much a showman and loving attention.

So what if he's "created jobs?" That's becoming a stupid catch phrase. Give me an inherited fortune and the ability to borrow unlimited amounts of cash without having to pay it back and I'll create just as many jobs as he has.

Trump doesn't have the ability to borrow unlimited amounts of cash without having to pay it back. No one does. You can borrow money as long as you pay it back and make the lenders money. You fail to do this, and the money dries up.

How exactly is that supposed to translate to being president? Is he going to sell bonds to the Chinese, build casinos in DC, and then default on the bonds?

If Trump wants to run for President, he will need to show he is knowledgeable on policy and the issues (which I don't think he really is right now), however at least he has the experience of having dealt with real stress, of having run a large organization, of having managed and completed large projects, etc...