Is this determinable? (Size of this Russian patrol boat)

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the feasibility of determining the length of a Russian patrol boat using the physics of shrapnel arcs from an explosion. Participants agree that while scaling cues exist, such as the density of particles and the boat's features, the accuracy of such analysis is limited due to poor video optics and numerous uncertainties. The consensus leans towards the conclusion that published reports identifying these boats as Raptor-class, measuring 16.9 meters, are likely accurate despite the challenges in verifying size through forensic analysis of the explosion alone.

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This discussion is beneficial for forensic scientists, naval architects, and anyone involved in military analysis or video forensic investigations seeking to understand the complexities of size determination in explosive contexts.

thetexan
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Is it possible to determine the length of the boat by using the physics of the shrapnel arcs?

Can the traces of the arcs be used to determine the distance the shrapnel travels and then be send to determine the boat length.

Tex
 
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There are definitely scaling cues. I'm not sure how good they are.
The bright cinder-like "particles" give a clue to their density as they rise and quickly slow. Then their downward acceleration until they reach terminal velocity happens very quickly, suggesting the scale.
Normally, the blast itself would give clues. But the optics are so bad that its hard to separate internal reflections in the optics from atmospheric effects.

The biggest scale cues are features on the boats and the way that the second boat is maneuvering.
 
Is this physics exercise in analyzing ballistics? Or are you more interested in the size of the boat?

Because, frankly the most obvious clue to judging scale is the fact that the boat seems to have an outboard.

In fact:
1651712598260.png

1651712551717.png

"China 12.7m High Speed Fisheries Patrol Gun Boat for Sale Russian"
 
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I doubt that any such analysis will be accurate enough to disprove the published reports that these are Raptor-class boats, 16.9 meters long. There are just too many uncertainties involved when just working with the videos and no context.
 
Nugatory said:
I doubt that any such analysis will be accurate enough to disprove the published reports that these are Raptor-class boats, 16.9 meters long. There are just too many uncertainties involved when just working with the videos and no context.
I saw pix of these raptor class boats, and disqualified them immediately.

Look at the windscreen:
1651714065579.png

It is sloped inward at the bottom, similar to many ocean-going vessels.

The one in the video seems to have an outward sloped windscreen (see post 3).

It just doesn't seem to match.
1651714918829.png
 
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My interest is in whether there is enough info in the video from the explosion to determine is size.

If a forensic scientist tried to determine the size of the boat just using the explosion could he, knowing nothing else?

Tex
 
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thetexan said:
If a forensic scientist tried to determine the size of the boat just using the explosion could he, knowing nothing else?
Probably. But to what accuracy or precision I can't say. You're probably far better off just looking at the shape and relative sizes of the boats components and the way it moves through the water.
 

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