Can Mathematics Predict Real-World Events Like Wars?

[peter444]

I read a newspaper a few days ago... The article was about some guy, who mathematically predicted when the war was going to end, and it really happened! how do you apply mathematics to real life?

 

[selfAdjoint]

Well for example, like this, and there's plenty more where that came from. These days "statistical mechanics" is as likely to be about complex systems of humans as about inert matter.

 

[pocebokli]

that's all just probablity mathematics or something like that

at this point we can apply it to relatively small systems where we have all or at least most of data available.

but i'd like to see statistical mechanic predict weather forecast for the next minute, if you will:-)

 

[FZ+]

Watch TV? Short term weather prediction is pretty good, with statistical mechanics results in a simplified model.

 

[selfAdjoint]

And you don't have to make a perfect forecast to be on the money when it comes about. If you can be better than 70%, you can beat "persistence" (forecast tomorrow to be like today). And that'll make you right more often than not. With human history it's even easier. Lots of people have been predicting just what's going on now in Iraq, since before we ever attacked them.

 

[pocebokli]

ok let's then make it long-term weather prediction.

or EXACT short-term weather prediction.

 

[Njorl]

The best method for making accurate predictions is to have several aliases, each of which make a different prediction. Then, boast using the alias that was correct.

Njorl

 

[TENYEARS]

I have had many visions. A vision is that which you know which will happen before it does. Not a dream which may or may not happen, but that which you know will happen and state so without question before it does. We all have dreams with some aspects of reality in them. We also have the capability to have more or rather another aspect of what is. If what he saw was real, it was math in conjuntion with something else. What are the probable odds also? In one vision I had, one minor part just one minor part had odds which are now at 4200 to 1 odds. If combined with all other aspects and to happen in the same day it would be beyond comprehension.

 

[FZ+]

The best method for making accurate predictions is to have several aliases, each of which make a different prediction. Then, boast using the alias that was correct.

Heh. A quantum prophecy?

 

[jammieg]

I think the main thing about prophecies is we never hear about the many that didn't come true but then if enough people believe that something will come true, I wonder if it makes it more likley to happen...like when I person is sure they will make a basket ball go in the hoop...