tsutsuji said:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20120307/0920yoken.html At a symposium in Washington about the Fukushima Daichi accident, Commissioner Apostolakis said "the consequences of a tsunami could have been predicted". The symposium organiser, the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, is also releasing a report on "Why Fukushima was preventable", saying that the analysis of historical tsunamis was not sufficient and that in contrast with the measures taken in Europe after the French NPP flooding and blackout of 1999 or in the US after the 11 September 2001 attacks, Japan was negligent to take countermeasures against blackout.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/06/one-year-on-assessing-fukushima-s-impact/9iid Symposium
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/fukushima.pdf report: James M. Acton and Mark Hibbs, "Why Fukushima was preventable"
Here are my impressions after reading that report :
There are a few obscure statements (in note 5 page 33, they imply that the HPCI "did require electricity" ; page 10 "the revised design-basis tsunami was now 1.4 meters above the seawater pumps" is contradicted by the IAEA mission report which mentions that the seawater pumps had been retrofitted). Perhaps this is inevitable when one summarizes a complex event in a few pages.
Saying on page 10: "As a result, we believe it would be unfair to apportion significant blame for the accident on the actions the operators took (or failed to take) after the tsunami, as the official investigation committee has done", Acton and Hibbs attack and dismiss the Japanese Government's investigation committee's interim report, although they have probably not read it. If they had read it, they would have provided an internet link to the full report rather than to the English summary. The official investigation committee drew its conclusions from the analysis of the facts mentioned in the report. It seems that Acton and Hibbs want to dismiss the Tepco-unfriendly conclusions of the report regardless what the uncomfortable facts might be. Criticizing Tepco must be a sort of taboo in their mind.
The demonstration that the whole world is so much better protected against severe accident than Japan seems to be a little far fetched. That two or 3 plants in such or such country are better protected than Fukushima Daiichi does not mean that those countries as a whole are better than Japan as a whole. After all, Tokai Daini, Fukushima Daini, or Onagawa etc... resisted the tsunami.
The report provides also plenty of examples of weaknesses in countries different from Japan "In many plants in the United States, one expert said, the on-site AC power supply is not stronger than that at Fukushima Daiichi" (page 19). Most French plants lack an alternative heat sink (page 21).
What I disagree most is the way the report flatters the IAEA and extols its supposed virtues.
Page 24: "Nonetheless, given Japan’s participation in the [IAEA tsunami safety] project, it should have been well aware of how far its own practice was lagging behind international standards, and this should have prompted remedial actions." I think this can be understood the other way round. The IAEA should have been aware that Japan was lagging behind, and the IAEA should have distanced itself from Japan and from Tepco. During all these years the IAEA's attitude toward Japan was an attitude of approval. Or where, during all these year, do we find instances of IAEA disapproving Japan and disapproving Tepco ? Isn't the present IAEA president a Japanese ? If Japan was such a bad country, the IAEA should not have elected a Japanese as its president. And the IAEA should not have promoted the November 24-26, 2010 Kashiwazaki international symposium on seismic safety where Tepco's Makoto Takao says in his presentation on "Tsunami Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Japan" http://www.jnes.go.jp/seismic-symposium10/presentationdata/3_sessionB/B-11.pdf page 14 "Fukushima Daiichi NPS : we assessed and confirmed the safety of the nuclear plants based on the JSCE method which was published in 2002". If the IAEA had been the paragon of tsunami safety Acton and Hibbs claim it was, the IAEA should have said "This is not good science. We don't want to have anything to do with that. We repudiate the kind of symposium where such approaches can be presented in guise of good science". Instead of that, we find on the IAEA's website at
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2009/lookahead2010.html : "An International Workshop on Seismic Safety of Nuclear Installations will be held in Kashiwazaki in Japan from 17 to 19 March 2010. It is being organised by the IAEA and the International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) in co-operation with the IAEA Asia Nuclear Safety Network (ANSN)".
http://www.jnes.go.jp/seismic-symposium10/pictures/images/02opening-001.jpg
Look at the flower bunch. Isn't it cute ? During all these years, the IAEA was in love with Tepco, giving or receiving flowers to it or from it.
http://www.jnes.go.jp/seismic-symposium10/pictures/images/04b-001.jpg
See also Yoko Iwabuchi's presentation http://www.jnes.go.jp/seismic-symposium10/presentationdata/3_sessionB/B-10.pdf about an historical database of tsunamis from 1596 to 2003. This leaves the Jogan tsunami of 869 out. [1]
http://www.jnes.go.jp/seismic-symposium10/pictures/images/04b-012.jpg
K. Satake was in the room. What was he thinking ?
(All presentations and pictures are available at http://www.jnes.go.jp/seismic-symposium10/presentationdata/content.html )
[1]
http://tsunami3.civil.tohoku.ac.jp/ Japan Tsunami Trace Database