News Libya: Rebels Being Slaughtered, no fly zone

[nismaratwork]

I discussed and linked it in post #69, guys, and it comes from the speech he made yesterday: http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/03/18/obama.no.fly/index.html?hpt=T1

Russ, I think that our extremely finely targeted system for anti-radar/AA is just that, along with C&C support through AWACS, Aegis systems, and more.

I don't think there's a contradiction, and less so when you consider that the targets were just that; RADAR/AA, the destruction of which has only one benefit: the support of european and other allied efforts.

We're going to have to wait and see if this is a trend, or if this is truly what I described.

 

[cobalt124]

"trying to limit", "very reluctant", "We will provide the unique capabilities that we can bring to bear to stop the violence against civilians, including enabling our European allies and Arab partners to effectively enforce a no-fly zone",

Picking out parts of Russes link, Obama isn't directly saying he won't use firepower. My reading of it is he will, but that he is ultra sensitive to being seen as leading this, so is wording it as he does.

 

[nismaratwork]

By definition, we also have to be the first to strike... we're best at removing AA assets. It's a very flashy media-friendly event, but it could be misconstrued as us leading. It's harder to explain that France took the brunt of the risk by flying recon over active air defenses, we just provided the ammo and a bit more.

From here I hope our major presence is psy-ops and C&C for air... I'd hope the AL would do more, but I don't expect it.

 

[cobalt124]

BBC (earlier today):

The coalition's long-term aim of the military action in Libya is to overthrow Col Gaddafi, Oliver Miles, the former British ambassador to the country, tells the BBC. He adds: "I'm not against that, but as a war aim it's not adequate. What is going to come in Gaddafi's place?"

If this is true, it certainly isn't part of the U.N. mandate, but, practically speaking, must be the best outcome for all concerned, save one, and those who cling to him.

 

[cobalt124]

BBC:

2304: LibyanYouthMovement tweets: "ALL, yes ALL Gaddafi forces in ZINTAN have joined the #Feb17 revolution, Zintan now fully armed and ready #Libya #gaddaficrimes"

 

[cobalt124]

An AL contribution:

An un-named French official tells the AFP news agency that the United Arab Emirates has pledged 24 aircraft to the coalition and Qatar between four and six.

 

[nismaratwork]

An AL contribution:

An un-named French official tells the AFP news agency that the United Arab Emirates has pledged 24 aircraft to the coalition and Qatar between four and six.

Hmmm... I'll offer congrats when I see them fly and use munitions.

 

[cobalt124]

Hmmm... I'll offer congrats when I see them fly and use munitions.

Yes, thinking about it, that may be a giant step to take, and may just be a token gesture.

 

[cobalt124]

BBC:

Reports from Benghazi say rebels have regained control of the city after driving out forces loyal to Col Gaddafi. The rebels say roads to the east are clogged with car loads of people fleeing

 

[Proton Soup]

BBC (earlier today):

The coalition's long-term aim of the military action in Libya is to overthrow Col Gaddafi, Oliver Miles, the former British ambassador to the country, tells the BBC. He adds: "I'm not against that, but as a war aim it's not adequate. What is going to come in Gaddafi's place?"

If this is true, it certainly isn't part of the U.N. mandate, but, practically speaking, must be the best outcome for all concerned, save one, and those who cling to him.

the really interesting thing is, france no longer recognizes gaddafi as the legitimate head of state of libya. this happened several days ago in fact. they've already chosen the next government.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12699183

this has a lot of interesting implications, doesn't it? it's generally recognized that governments don't go out to assassinate heads of state. even the US outlawed it a while back.

also, there's a lot of oil contracts on the line here. spain and italy were the old regime profiteers, and stand to lose quite a lot. why so much silence from them? are the brits and french about to come in and take it from them? or at least the lion's share? it's all very fascinating.

 

[cobalt124]

the really interesting thing is, france no longer recognizes gaddafi as the legitimate head of state of libya. this happened several days ago in fact. they've already chosen the next government.

Yes, I'm left wondering why France did that, it was a very courageous? move.

this has a lot of interesting implications, doesn't it? it's generally recognized that governments don't go out to assassinate heads of state. even the US outlawed it a while back.

Gadaffi doesn't have to be assassinated, though he may insist that will happen. He has the choice of stepping down (fat chance), then the problem is who would have him. Antarctica?

also, there's a lot of oil contracts on the line here. spain and italy were the old regime profiteers, and stand to lose quite a lot. why so much silence from them? are the brits and french about to come in and take it from them? or at least the lion's share? it's all very fascinating.

Forgive me, I'm very naive, and I hope this isn't primarily to do with oil. It's a miracle there is actually a consensus to do something about Gadaffi.

 

[Proton Soup]

Yes, I'm left wondering why France did that, it was a very courageous? move.

Gadaffi doesn't have to be assassinated, though he may insist that will happen. He has the choice of stepping down (fat chance), then the problem is who would have him. Antarctica?

if you think back to iraq, then you may remember that we were careful not to target Saddam Hussein directly. or at least that is what we said. and then we captured him and he was tried, convicted, and executed.

Forgive me, I'm very naive, and I hope this isn't primarily to do with oil. It's a miracle there is actually a consensus to do something about Gadaffi.

it's no more a miracle than doing something about Hussein. in both cases, there are assets at stake. and cutting off an irreplaceable source of prime petroleum at a time when the world economy is already shaky may be giving arab governments pause, as well. the last thing they want is even higher food prices. that would mean more citizens protesting in the streets for government reforms.

 

[mugaliens]

Gadaffi doesn't have to be assassinated, though he may insist that will happen. He has the choice of stepping down (fat chance), then the problem is who would have him. Antarctica?

I'm thinking it's high time they send another man to the moon... Spacesuit not required.

 

[nismaratwork]

I'm thinking it's high time they send another man to the moon... Spacesuit not required.

I have to say, I truly believe that Ghaddafi has to die before this can end, whether it's assasination by his own people, exposure through mass defections, or direct action from outside of Libya, he needs to die, and his children.

@Proton: Remember that Iraq and Hussein were US allies, and a means to buffer the Arab world from Iran. We had an interest in him... ghaddafi is only a hinderance. He's no longer a recognized head of state, and his children even less so; he's a dead man walking. I'd add, he's not Hussein, he won't hide, he'll die first and in doing so he's the type to take as many with him as possible. This is a textbook example of needing to decapitate the leadership completely, and allow some kind of natural order to return. We can't hope to guide Libya's diverse tribes, only free them, and the quickest way to that is to remove all semblance of central leadership.

You destroy a cult of personality by killing its head, and then removing the limbs that would otherwise function without the head. In this case, Ghaddafi is the figurehead at this point, and his children the limbs; they need to die, unless by some miracle they surrender, in which case they die in a few years.

 

[lisab]

David Cameron, British PM, assures us that Libya will not be another Iraq. Libyan leader Khadafy (aka Qaddafi) has expressed concern that Libya will be another Viet Nam. This is a real posibility since, according to American officials, Iraq is not another Viet Nam. Calls to Viet Nam asking for comment have not been returned. Afghanistan has warned that they will not accept being another Libya. However, Libya has assured Kabul that Korea will take precedence for being another Libya. Meanwhile, Canada (another USA) has indicated that they will welcome to their shores, people objecting to any country becoming another Viet Nam. The UN passed another resolution against Israel to the satisfaction of all.

One of your best works, Jimmy .

 

[Ivan Seeking]

By definition, we also have to be the first to strike...

But we weren't! The first to make a strike were the French; and not an arbitrary choice I would bet.

 

[cobalt124]

I'm thinking it's high time they send another man to the moon... Spacesuit not required.

I'm being far too kind. I thought about a manned mission to Mars, and there was that plan for the one way "heroic" mission, and it did include the spacesuit.

 

[cobalt124]

BBC:

0138: Clovis Maksoud, a former Arab League representative to the UN, tells the BBC that Arab states will soon join the operation in Libya: "They will do it within the framework of the United Nations. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, perhaps Jordan, will join in one form or another in whatever the leadership of the UN operation requires. There is a willingness to participate in whatever capacity they can. Already they have deployed some of their aircraft to help the coalition."

The Pentagon says it will transfer command of Operation Odyssey Dawn in the coming days, almost certainly to Nato. But that will happen only after the Americans have established that the first wave of attacks has done sufficient damage to Libya's air defences for a no fly zone to be safely patrolled."

 

[cobalt124]

My turn to be confused:

0929: UK Chancellor George Osborne, who attended a meeting of the government's emergency Cobra committee before the first mission on Saturday - says the UN mandate authorising action in Libya is "very clear" - adding there are no plans for putting troops on the ground "at the moment".

There's being two or three comments on deploying of ground troops, I'm wondering "Whose?", as I have only heard national leaders say they would specifically not deploy ground troops. French? Arab League? U.S. and U.K. and the rebels themselves have said no to ground troops, which would be difficult anyway due to ongoing commitments elsewhere.

 

[cobalt124]

Shami Chakrabarti, director of UK human rights organisation Liberty said the current action was justified. But she added: "There seems to be a lack of clarity about the difference between any ground forces at all, and an occupying force.

 

[cobalt124]

1008: Libyan rebel spokesman Mustafa Gheriani in Tobruk tells the BBC that Benghazi is "fairly safe", having taken a heavy pounding from pro-Gaddafi forces on Saturday. "There's a few remnants of Gaddafi's embedded cells operating but for the most part they've been eliminated." He says that, so far, the intervention of western powers has been very effective. "We want to change a tyrant - this guy is a criminal and has to be judged as one," he adds

 

[cobalt124]

1101: A spokesman for the American military - Col Franklin Childress - has confirmed to the BBC reports that B-2 stealth bombers have dropped around 40 conventional bombs on Libyan targets. Col Childress said he could not specify which targets had been attacked. He said that Tomahawk missiles might continue to be used in the campaign

 

[nismaratwork]

But we weren't! The first to make a strike were the French; and not an arbitrary choice I would bet.

True... I'd also guess it's no coincidence. For all that this is a joint 'French-British' venture, the French are all over it, and the UK is providing... 4 jets.

 

[nismaratwork]

My turn to be confused:

0929: UK Chancellor George Osborne, who attended a meeting of the government's emergency Cobra committee before the first mission on Saturday - says the UN mandate authorising action in Libya is "very clear" - adding there are no plans for putting troops on the ground "at the moment".

There's being two or three comments on deploying of ground troops, I'm wondering "Whose?", as I have only heard national leaders say they would specifically not deploy ground troops. French? Arab League? U.S. and U.K. and the rebels themselves have said no to ground troops, which would be difficult anyway due to ongoing commitments elsewhere.

Understand that troops might include special operations to gather intel and target on the ground, but it's not the same as dropping an invasion force. Still, people hate even a technical lie, so this is butt-covering, and I suppose, honesty.

 

[cobalt124]

Understand that troops might include special operations to gather intel and target on the ground, but it's not the same as dropping an invasion force. Still, people hate even a technical lie, so this is butt-covering, and I suppose, honesty.

My reading of their words implies "invasion force". The wording seems to keep many options open, or is creating grey areas. Maybe it's just the nature of the beast.

 

[nismaratwork]

My reading of their words implies "invasion force". The wording seems to keep many options open, or is creating grey areas. Maybe it's just the nature of the beast.

I'd agree, except that an invasion force is the one thing explicitly forbidden by UN-1973... if that's ingored then all of this diplo-cover was for nothing.

 

[cobalt124]

BBC:

1219: Arab countries will be moving "military assets" to the region in the next few days, Dr Fox adds. He says this is vital to demonstrating that this is an international effort, not the west imposing its will.

 

[cobalt124]

It seems that William Hague, U.K. Foreign Secretary doesn't have much to say about all of this, he's possibly being kept out of it to some extent because of the recent farce with the helicopter he sent into Libya.

 

[Astronuc]

David Cameron, British PM, assures us that Libya will not be another Iraq. Libyan leader Khadafy (aka Qaddafi) has expressed concern that Libya will be another Viet Nam. This is a real posibility since, according to American officials, Iraq is not another Viet Nam. Calls to Viet Nam asking for comment have not been returned. Afghanistan has warned that they will not accept being another Libya. However, Libya has assured Kabul that Korea will take precedence for being another Libya. Meanwhile, Canada (another USA) has indicated that they will welcome to their shores, people objecting to any country becoming another Viet Nam. The UN passed another resolution against Israel to the satisfaction of all.

Brilliant!

 

[nismaratwork]

I think that it's safe to say Tripoli will be leveled before the USA commits Vietnam-type troops counts.

 

[cobalt124]

BBC:

1450: More from US military chief Adm Mullen, who says planes from Qatar are now moving into position near Libya

 

[Gokul43201]

David Cameron, British PM, assures us that Libya will not be another Iraq. Libyan leader Khadafy (aka Qaddafi) has expressed concern that Libya will be another Viet Nam. This is a real posibility since, according to American officials, Iraq is not another Viet Nam. Calls to Viet Nam asking for comment have not been returned. Afghanistan has warned that they will not accept being another Libya. However, Libya has assured Kabul that Korea will take precedence for being another Libya. Meanwhile, Canada (another USA) has indicated that they will welcome to their shores, people objecting to any country becoming another Viet Nam. The UN passed another resolution against Israel to the satisfaction of all.

Gee, Jimmy. I thought you were being serious with that post. And then I got to the last sentence.

 

[nismaratwork]

Al Aziziyah was hit by 2 cruise missiles, according to Nic Robertson on the scene (CNN), but not independently verified. As that is Tripoli-ish... I'm feeling good about post #130.

 

[cobalt124]

0011: An apparent missile strike has caused extensive damage to Col Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli. Journalists who were taken to the Bab al-Aziziya complex said a four-storey administrative building had been flattened. There has been no word of any casualties. The Pentagon has denied that Col Gaddafi is a target.

This is the place to hit.

 

[nismaratwork]

0011: An apparent missile strike has caused extensive damage to Col Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli. Journalists who were taken to the Bab al-Aziziya complex said a four-storey administrative building had been flattened. There has been no word of any casualties. The Pentagon has denied that Col Gaddafi is a target.

This is the place to hit.

Indeed... that should give the Libyan C&C something to think about, and maybe impetus to kill Ghaddafi et al rather than let the next missile land on THEM.

 

[nismaratwork]

Did those Tomahawks fired into Al Aziziyah have a low-yield warhead?... there seems to be more left of the compound and missile body than I would have expected...

 

[Al68]

The Pentagon has denied that Col Gaddafi is a target.

Why not? He's the problem, he should be the primary target.

On another note, why is it that the Colonel is still a Colonel after 30 years? He should have made General by now.

 

[FlexGunship]

Why not? He's the problem, he should be the primary target.

On another note, why is it that the Colonel is still a Colonel after 30 years? He should have made General by now.

You think he deserves a promotion? He has the tactical and strategic mind of a kumquat.

There's no perma-link to this image, so it might go AWOL in a little while. But I wanted to share this. It's a coalition air-strike on Libyan ground vehicles. New York Times reports there were "government vehicles" targeted. I'm not sure that I've heard of this yet. I understood all air operations to be in an effort to preserve the no-fly zone plus reconnaissance.

Prelude to ground war?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Interesting fact: The attack on Libya began eight years to the day after the invasion of Iraq began - March 19, 2003.

 

[FlexGunship]

Interesting fact: The attack on Libya began eight years to the day after the invasion of Iraq began - March 19, 2003.

Everyone gets restless after a long winter.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Everyone gets restless after a long winter.

Because Obama has proceeded with the war in Afghanistan, and because I support Obama, my left of left friend calls it MY war. He will NEVER forgive me for Libya. I might has well have dropped the bombs myself!

At least I can default to "George started it!", when he complains about Aghanistan.

 

[FlexGunship]

Because Obama has proceeded with the war in Afghanistan, and because I support Obama, my left of left friend calls it MY war. He will NEVER forgive me for Libya. I might has well have dropped the bombs myself!

I was wondering where to point the finger on this one! I'm actually kind of glad to see that Obama has the "guts" to stand-up in an international forum like this and show a bellicose side.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I was wondering where to point the finger on this one! I'm actually kind of glad to see that Obama has the "guts" to stand-up in an international forum like this and show a bellicose side.

Once I felt that I had begun to understand the man, I never had any doubts he would do what was needed when needed. But he is far more sensitive to the perceptions and concerns of our friends in the Middle East [and the surrounding area] than we have been in the past. This makes him look weak to some, but I think Libya shows that is not the case.

In this case, his caution caused delays. Unfortunate but wise, imo. He wanted to shore up support first.

 

[cobalt124]

Why not? He's the problem, he should be the primary target.

Taking this view, it seems Resolution 1973 (and resolutions in general) are vaguely worded to gain consensus, and hence have wriggle room to justify targetting Gadaffi.

 

[FlexGunship]

Once I felt that I began to understand the man, I never had any doubts he would do what was needed when needed.

Heh, I'm still not sure I understand him. He's slowly becoming more and more like former President Clinton which isn't fundamentally bad, but I feel like he ran on a lot of platforms that should've distanced himself from that. Surprised to see his handling of Guantanamo recently (not that I agree or disagree with it).

I'm curious, now, to see if Libya ever evolves into a real land war (involving the U.S. among other possible partners). This is what I'm waiting for:

http://www.bobsviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/obama-mission-accomplished.jpg

(Note: It's funny how easy it was to find this image.)

 

[cobalt124]

Once I felt that I began to understand the man, I never had any doubts he would do what was needed when needed. But he is far more sensitive to the perceptions and concerns of our friends in the Middle East than we have been in the past. This makes him look weak to some, but I think Libya shows that is not the case.

He doesn't look weak to me, he looks like he's doing the right thing. Perceptions in the U.S. are totally different though, I suspect.

 

[cobalt124]

BBC:

0833: The Guardian is running a piece entitled "Libya crisis may save Nicolas Sarkozy from electoral humiliation". Jonathan Freedland, the newspaper's correspondent in Paris, says the French president certainly needs something to prevent him coming third in next year's election.

Would Sarkozy start this to enhance his reputation domestically? What reason did he have for making a stand? Oil? Principle?

Also read that the UAE have "downgraded" from military involvement to humanitarian aid.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

BBC:

0833: The Guardian is running a piece entitled "Libya crisis may save Nicolas Sarkozy from electoral humiliation". Jonathan Freedland, the newspaper's correspondent in Paris, says the French president certainly needs something to prevent him coming third in next year's election.

Would Sarkozy start this to enhance his reputation domestically? What reason did he have for making a stand? Oil? Principle?

Also read that the UAE have "downgraded" from military involvement to humanitarian aid.

I would bet that we insisted that the French strike first. France has a long history of straddling the line or opposing US actions. On the face of things at least, it appeared to be a clear statement to the international community that we are all in this one together.

It wouldn't at all surprise me if this idea came directly from Obama.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I'm curious, now, to see if Libya ever evolves into a real land war (involving the U.S. among other possible partners). This is what I'm waiting for:

No doubt we will do everything possible to avoid that one. I am reminded of the quote that first really grabbed my attention. This situation may play out as a chance to see if he was 100% correct. We already know that he got most of it right.

I know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States, or to his neighbors, that the Iraqi economy is in shambles, that the Iraqi military is a fraction of its former strength, and that in concert with the international community he can be contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away into the dustbin of history.

I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda. I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars.

- Barack Obama, October, 2002
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16903253/page/2/

Emphasis mine.

 

[Skrew]

Ehm, I proabbly shouldn't post this but I can't resist.

1. Is there proof that the rebels aren't largely Islamic radicals, and that islamic radicals won't be able to take over the movement.

2. Is there proof that the post Gaddafi government will be able to better manage the country and won't become a muslim theocracy.

We all know how the last two middle-east "liberations" went, it's highly amusing to me that anyone thinks this one will go better.