News Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 crash

[Ptero]

According to US-based Federal Aviation Administration, lithium-ion batteries carried in the cargo or baggage have been responsible for more than 140 incidents between March 1991 and February 17 this year, it was reported by Malaysiakini.
Billie Vincent, the former head of security for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, said the revelation re-affirmed his belief that flames started in the cargo hold, destroying the aircraft's communication systems then filling the cabin with toxic fumes.
This, he says, would have overwhelmed the passengers but may have given the pilots a chance to divert the aircraft for an emergency landing.
He told Air Traffic Management: 'The data released thus far most likely points to a problem with hazardous materials.
'This scenario begins with the eruption of hazardous materials within the cargo hold – either improperly packaged or illegally shipped – or both.'
It is thought the missing plane climbed to 45,000ft - a move Mr Vincent believes may have resulted from the pilots not being able to see the controls properly.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Airlines-finally-admits-dangerous-cargo.html

 

[Q_Goest]

The thing that bugs me most about the terrorism/hijacking theory is why would anyone want to commandeer an aircraft and fly it to a spot 1500 miles southwest of Australia. Is there any explanation, assuming the flight was under control of a pilot, that explains why they would have flown to such a remote location?

 

[jim hardy]

Ptero- are those fumes debilitating ? Can they get into cockpit ?

If so, it could explain hurried entry of waypoint VOR "TRN" ; which explains the initial left turn (see post # 128)

and the 'erratic maneuvers' could have been the autopilot 'hunting' which is natural when it gets real close to a VOR (unless it's a smarter autopilot than i ever messed with);

and the turn south could be autopilot switching to "hold heading" when it overflew the last VOR in its cue, on a strange heading because of the natural "hunting" as it got close(aka "chasing the needle" ),,,,


This speculative scenario doesn't answer everything
but at least it removes the stigma of malice from an experienced and presumably upright flight crew.
Let us hope it turns out some variation on the theme, which i think it will. I never met a professional pilot who wasn't just a mighty fine individual.

Time will tell.

old jim

 

[SteamKing]

If it were terrorism, what could be the motive? Who has a beef with the Malaysians?

Malaysia has been the scene of several terror incidents recently and is home to several (now deceased) terrorists and active terror organizations:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azahari_Husin - thought to be behind the Bali bombing in 2002.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noordin_Mohammed_Top - thought to be behind several hotel bombings in Jakarta, involved in the 2002 Bali bombing, and bombing the Australian embassy in JK in 2004.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Sayyaf - although founded in the Philippines, AS also operates in Indonesia and Malaysia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jemaah_Islamiyah - known to have active cells in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines.

It may not be that Malaysian nationals were the targets of any possible terrorism. Reportedly, the majority of the passengers were Chinese nationals flying to Beijing.

Unfortunately, terrorism operates worldwide, and having a beef with the locals is only one reason
to carry out an attack.

 

[Ptero]

jim hardy;4696320]Ptero- are those fumes debilitating ? Can they get into cockpit ?

~Hydrofluoric acid can dissolve glass. Hydrofluoric acid vapor is horrible. Among the worst. It can be carried by smoke but it is a clear, odorless gas. It attacks the mucous membranes - the eyes and the lungs. Maximum permitted exposure determined by the CDC is 3 ppm in 8 hours! I know of a guy who sniffed an overheated camcorder lithium battery vent when he actually knew better. Twenty minutes later he was in a hospital emergency room losing sensation in his arms. People exposed to higher concentrations of HF die of respiratory failure and cardiac arrest. Look at what happened to the captain of UPS Fight 6, the Boeing 747 that crashed in Dubai in 2010. When his oxygen system failed he handed off to the F.O. and got out of his seat but didn't even make it to the emergency oxygen just 6 feet away. The F.O. was begging Arab flight control to help him land because he couldn't see out the windows. He missed the runway and crashed when the fire took his elevator control.

~Consider this. Light HF fumes do not effect the body immediately. You can accumulate a dose that will incapacitate you in 10 or 20 minutes without even being aware of it. You notice the first signs and put on an oxygen mask and goggles - but you've already been breathing in the vapors for several minutes and the onset is relentless and agonizing. Stronger vapor, of course, is worse. It immediately attacks the cornea. Your eyes swell shut. You go blind. You can't breathe. Your heart is racing. You lose consciousness.

http://www.aircharterservice.com/themes/frontend/uploads/images/aircraft/B777-200F%20(640x602).jpg

~It could have been that way with MH370. It would have been a nightmare on a passenger airliner. No one in their right mind should put a ton or more of lithium batteries on a passenger airliner but they do it every day. On UPS Flight 6, the fire ate through the fire liner, allowing the toxic fumes to escape and get into the cockpit. Those poor brave guys kept telling control how hot it was.

If so, it could explain hurried entry of waypoint VOR "TRN" ; which explains the initial left turn (see post # 128) and the 'erratic maneuvers' could have been the autopilot 'hunting' which is natural when it gets real close to a VOR (unless it's a smarter autopilot than i ever messed with);

~I have heard a good pilot will have a set of "bug out" coordinates along his route in case of emergency. I also heard you can enter these at any time and call them up later. The erratic vertical maneuvers make me suspect panic, desperation and incapacitation. If the fire or HF vapor concentration was forward, the flight crew may have succumbed and a member of the passenger crew - a steward or stewardess - they are all equipped with emergency portable oxygen - may have struggled with the plane for a few minutes before collapsing. Climbing to such a high point makes me think of pulling back on the stick when you're in a cloud near mountains. When you can't see... It's instinctive.

and the turn south could be autopilot switching to "hold heading" when it overflew the last VOR in its cue, on a strange heading because of the natural "hunting" as it got close(aka "chasing the needle" ),,,,

~On UPS Flight 6, the fire damaged the control system while sparing the communications.

This speculative scenario doesn't answer everything
but at least it removes the stigma of malice from an experienced and presumably upright flight crew.
Let us hope it turns out some variation on the theme, which i think it will. I never met a professional pilot who wasn't just a mighty fine individual.

Time will tell.

old jim

 

[jim hardy]

every Li-ion battery MSDS i looked at says

Acute Health Hazards
(e.g., Inhalation, Eye Contact, Skin Contact, Ingestion, etc.)
:
Burning batteries
: AVOID inhalation of toxic fumes. Burning batteries emit toxic fumes, which are
irritating to the lungs.

This one's at http://www.cecom.army.mil/safety/sys_service/b_cobalt.pdf
some say HF is among the fumes, as you stated.


From cameochemicals.noaa.gov/erg_guides/Guide_147.pdf

Lithium ion batteries ERG2012 GUIDE 147

POTENTIAL HAZARDS FIRE OR EXPLOSION •
Lithium ion batteries contain flammable liquid electrolyte that may vent, ignite and produce sparks when subjected to high temperatures (> 150C (302F)), when damaged or abused (e.g.,mechanical damage or electrical overcharging). •

May burn rapidly with flare-burning effect. •
May ignite other batteries in close proximity.

HEALTH •
Contact with battery electrolyte may be irritating to skin, eyes and mucous membranes. •
Fire will produce irritating, corrosive and/or toxic gases. •
Burning batteries may produce toxic hydrogen fluoride gas (see GUIDE 125). •
Fumes may cause dizziness or suffocation
...

FIRE •
If rail car or trailer is involved in a fire, ISOLATE for 500 meters (1/3 mile) in all directions; also initiate evacuation including emergency responders for 500 meters (1/3 mile) in all directions

I think I'm with you - significant amounts of these have no business in a passenger plane .
Maybe that's why the cargo manifest isn't public yet (or did i miss it? )

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Chinese satellite finds object in Indian Ocean, may be possible wreckage

Chinese satellites have spotted the new object in the southern Indian Ocean that could be wreckage from the
missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 carrying 239 people, and ships are on their way to investigate. (Credit: Reuters)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUKNNq6hK-k
http://www.youtube.com/embed/JUKNNq6hK-k


But... what could possibly be 22 x 13 meters on MH370...

 

[Bill_K]

Maybe they found at last my thesis advisor: http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/582/2/Mathews.pdf
(I especially concur with his remark about MTW)

 

[nsaspook]

But... what could possibly be 22 x 13 meters on MH370...

If it is from MH370 the wing or tail with other parts attached with cables is a possibility. If it ran out of fuel the wings would be empty and buoyant if it sheared off cleanly on impact.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/object-spotted-by-chinese-satellite-might-be-boeing-777-wing-says-expert

The 777 wing is incredibly strong as shown in the Asiana Airlines Flight 214 crash. One wing took the almost entire force of the plane cartwheeling and was still intact on the ground.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Malaysian PM: "I must inform you that according to this new data, Flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean"

(Live on CNN right now)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJaXb4s3yxc
http://www.youtube.com/embed/dJaXb4s3yxc

 

[nsaspook]

So, we move officially from rescue to the recovery phase. I'm guessing to confirm the southern path they have reflown the possible flight paths with other signal detectors in addition to Imarstat and generated a precision multilateration/TDOA database of ping return data that can be matched with the original data from that plane and others in the same area using Doppler shifts hints from the planes speed and maybe even small timing changes during the long flight from normal geosynchronous satellite movements from a perfect geostationary orbit that are corrected. (This bird is pretty old so maybe the station keeping is loose North/South)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

So, we move from rescue to the recovery phase.

Yes, it has probably drifted a substantial distance since the tragic accident.

What I don't understand (and haven't heard any plausible hypothesis on); what was it doing this far from the original route? If it was technical failure/fire/explosion, could you really go this far? Or, if it was hijacked, why fly into a certain death? Or, if it was pilot madness/suicide, why fly all this distance?

The altitude drop just before disappearance, indicate fire/smoke... but the rest doesn't make 'sense'...

 

[jim hardy]

...could you really go this far?

if there's enough left of the autopilot to keep it headed one direction , sure.

Airplanes are designed mechanically to fly pretty straight and level with hands completely off the controls. That's why the wings point up slightly - look up "dihedral" .

 

[nsaspook]

Yes, it has probably drifted a substantial distance since the tragic accident.

What I don't understand (and haven't heard any plausible hypothesis on); what was it doing this far from the original route? If it was technical failure/fire/explosion, could you really go this far? Or, if it was hijacked, why fly into a certain death? Or, if it was pilot madness/suicide, why fly all this distance?

The altitude drop just before disappearance, indicate fire/smoke... but the rest doesn't make 'sense'...

We really know almost nothing about why this plane was on the flight path but just by looking at the crash site we know it was at near normal altitude and speed for much of the distance (6-7 hours). Only the recorders, crash debris and unfortunately maybe bodies will reveal the full truth.

 

[jim hardy]

From the investigation of 2010 UPS crash of a 747 resulting from lithium battery cargo fire...

i know, this isn't a 747...

It's just that this is typical of how "the small things of the Earth confound the mighty. "
Which was the point of Ernie Gann's book.
And is why it takes so long to fit the pieces together.

The CVR investigation indicated that the Captain’s oxygen mask stopped delivering oxygen
approximately 6 minutes after the fire alarm was heard. The F/O’s oxygen supply continued to function when the LH or Captain’s supply abruptly stopped with no prior indication of an oxygen supply problem recorded.
The systems group performed an oxygen systems architecture investigation analyzing the oxygen supply routing from the forward cargo hold through to the distribution networks and the final stage of the oxygen delivery to the crew’s oxygen stowage box and masks
The crew, and in particular the Captains oxygen supply is routed under the cockpit floor, the Captain’s supplementary oxygen supply line runs transversely from the RH side to the LH side of the cockpit, which positions the supply line tubing above a fire on the main deck cargo hold at body Station 340 .
The systems group concluded that it may have been possible that elevated temperatures affected the oxygen delivery to the MXP147 - 3 oxygen mask stowage box and caused a failure in the oxygen system supply.

They were able to duplicate failure at elevated temperature.

http://www.gcaa.gov.ae/en/ePublication/admin/iradmin/Lists/Incidents%20Investigation%20Reports/Attachments/40/2010-2010%20-%20Final%20Report%20-%20Boeing%20747-44AF%20-%20N571UP%20-%20Report%2013%202010.pdf

 

[Czcibor]

Or, if it was pilot madness/suicide, why fly all this distance?

The altitude drop just before disappearance, indicate fire/smoke... but the rest doesn't make 'sense'...

Maybe pilot wanted to commit a suicide in a way that he intended to never be found? (without satellite signal such outcome on middle of nowhere would be almost guaranteed)


Or thinking about any kind of accidents happening in a row - is it possible to set autopilot to go to the South Pool? By setting zero or something like that?

 

[Borek]

set autopilot to go to the South Pool

They have a pool at South Pole? Didn't know

 

[berkeman]

They have a pool at South Pole? Didn't know

And if you were there, you'd be a happy Pole in the Pool at the South Pole. Assuming it's indoors and heated, of course...

 

[Shellsunde]

How do they manage to calculate that the plane took the southern path?

A few hours ago, it was reported that further analysis of the satellite pings convinced them that the plane flew the southern corridor, not the northern. How did they manage to get that result, do you think?

We have distance from the satellite, so from that we can get two trajectories over the surface of the globe. Then, said the report, we have doppler shift of the ping's frequency. Is the speed of traversal of the paths with respect to the satellite different one from the other, perhaps due to the Earth's rotation? Or, in terms of position, is the satellite not equidistant from the arcs of the two paths? This is the only characteristic I can think of that would allow this determination. Some of you are experts, what can you add?

 

[Ptero]

I believe it has to do with the limb of the Earth radio shadow effect. By triangulating the ping signals and determining when the signals reached some satellites but not others which had been receiving but had passed into the radio shadow, they could deduce the southerly direction. Once that was known, there was likely some re-visitation of and argument about releasing military data from several countries.

 

[jim hardy]

Oversimplifying what's on another board -

The satellite is over the equator. So if the airplane crossed the equator , it flew first toward then away from the satellite. The minute change in doppler shift may have been detectable. A northerly course would fly only away from the satellite.see following two posts also.
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-396.html#post8398791

 

[DevilsAvocado]

They have a pool at South Pole? Didn't know

Of course they have! The neutrino guys got to stay clean!

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Maybe pilot wanted to commit a suicide in a way that he intended to never be found? (without satellite signal such outcome on middle of nowhere would be almost guaranteed)

Okay... but maybe a little bit 'complicated'... why not just buy a tiny sailboat and pull the plug... somewhere near the 'South Pool'? ;)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

A few hours ago, it was reported that further analysis of the satellite pings convinced them that the plane flew the southern corridor, not the northern. How did they manage to get that result, do you think?

The satellite is over the equator. So if the airplane crossed the equator , it flew first toward then away from the satellite. The minute change in doppler shift may have been detectable. A northerly course would fly only away from the satellite.

Thanks jim, this must be 'the evidence' (together with debris not made public yet?).

The Inmarsat satellites are stationary and 'non tracking':

But I don't understand how they can be so precise on the west/east direction... did they capture the 'handshake ping' on two satellites (IOR & AOR-E)?

 

[arildno]

From what I breezily read, the nutation of the satelite is also critical to account for here, in breaking the symmetry (and thus detect WHICH path the plane must have moved.
Also, from what I read, we are talking about calculations that had to be accurate on the nanosecond level.

Not sure if those two components mentioned me are as relevant s the news reports made them out to be, though.

 

[jim hardy]

There's a description here of what the 'detectives' did with the pings...

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-403.html#post8399949

Refined analysis from inmarsat
in recent days inmarsat developed a second innovative technique which considers the velocity of the aircraft relative to the satellite. Depending on this relative movement, the frequency received and transmitted will differ from its normal value, in much the same way that the sound of a passing car changes as it approaches and passes by. This is called the doppler effect. The inmarsat technique analyses the difference between the frequency that the ground station expects to receive and that actually measured. This difference is the result of the doppler effect and is known as the burst frequency offset.

The burst frequency offset changes depending on the location of the aircraft on an arc of possible positions, its direction of travel, and its speed. In order to establish confidence in its theory, inmarsat checked its predictions using information obtained from six other b777 aircraft flying on the same day in various directions. There was good agreement.

While on the ground at kuala lumpur airport, and during the early stage of the flight, mh370 transmitted several messages. At this stage the location of the aircraft and the satellite were known, so it was possible to calculate system characteristics for the aircraft, satellite, and ground station.

During the flight the ground station logged the transmitted and received pulse frequencies at each handshake. Knowing the system characteristics and position of the satellite it was possible, considering aircraft performance, to determine where on each arc the calculated burst frequency offset fit best.

The analysis showed poor correlation with the northern corridor, but good correlation with the southern corridor, and depending on the ground speed of the aircraft it was then possible to estimate positions at 0011 utc, at which the last complete handshake took place. I must emphasise that this is not the final position of the aircraft.

more at that link.

The famous "Arcs" i believe came from angle measurements off the vertical, probably they are circles centered about the satellite's location over earth.

 

[AlephZero]

more at that link.

... including a graph of the correlation.

 

[Czcibor]

Okay... but maybe a little bit 'complicated'... why not just buy a tiny sailboat and pull the plug... somewhere near the 'South Pool'? ;)

No flashy enough?

You know, if you ask me about a story that makes sense I still think that the northern route would be more reasonable ;)

 

[jim hardy]

call me Pollyana...
but
i'm sticking to the scenario "something bad happened to those pilots", who i presume acted heroically.

pure speculation here
my guess - because of the 'tiptoeing' around those 440 pounds of batteries in the cargo hold...
and the UPS 747 that was brought down in 2010 by a battery cargo fire which disabled crew and smoked up the cockpit.

to me it's more likely than a meteor strike...

and equally simple

and does not presume malice, except perhaps by whoever signed for those batteries being properly packaged.

Maybe someone will interview the cargo loaders and find out just where in the hold those things were. If forward under cockpit environmental equipment and adjacent electronics bay, the plot will thicken. And the crew will be exonerated.

old jim

 

[Czcibor]

call me Pollyana...
but
i'm sticking to the scenario "something bad happened to those pilots", who i presume acted heroically.

pure speculation here
my guess - because of the 'tiptoeing' around those 440 pounds of batteries in the cargo hold...
and the UPS 747 that was brought down in 2010 by a battery cargo fire which disabled crew and smoked up the cockpit.

to me it's more likely than a meteor strike...

and equally simple

and does not presume malice, except perhaps by whoever signed for those batteries being properly packaged.

Maybe someone will interview the cargo loaders and find out just where in the hold those things were. If forward under cockpit environmental equipment and adjacent electronics bay, the plot will thicken. And the crew will be exonerated.

old jim

Concerning the fire theory - is it possible that there would be exactly the right amount of fire - that pilots are immediately incapacitated, transponder is damaged, but after many hours of burning plane can still fly for hundreds of kilometres without any problem?

Hijack by someone not being pilot that went awry does not sound impossible. In that case such weird direction could be perceived as evidence of pilots that made a heroic sacrifice. (yes, a pure guess)