Maximize chance of success based on opinion poll

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In summary, to maximize your chance of giving the right medical diagnosis based on the source of medical experts, you should take the most used answer of all N experts. If you are looking to increase accuracy, you could consider using the most used answer of a smaller group of experts or a weighted average approach. This approach can also be applied when the diagnosis is not limited to two options and when the distribution of success rates is unknown.
  • #1
alexk
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Hi,

Here is my (imaginary) problem :

I have to make a medical diagnosis for a patient : is he A or B ?

I can not make inspection of the patient, and my only help is a poll of N medical experts that observed him.

Out of N experts, the track records for their past diagnoses are different:

  • 22% of experts had a success rate of 40%
  • 41% of experts had a succes rate of 53%
  • 37% of experts had a success rate of 68%

Questions :

1 / How can I maximise my chance of giving the right medical diagnosis, based only on the source of medical experts ?
Should I take the most used answer of all N experts, or the most answered of n experts (n < N) , or another solution ... ?

2/ What if the diagnosis asked is not only A or B, but A or B or C ?

3/ What if my experts are the best Y experts out of 100, but I don't know the distribution of their success rate ?

Thanks very much for your suggestions !
 
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  • #2
1 / Taking the most used answer of all N experts would be the best option as it would give you the highest chance of giving the right diagnosis. If you are looking to increase your accuracy even further, you could look at taking the most used answer of n experts (n < N). This would give you a more focused and accurate result as you are only taking into account the opinions of the most reliable experts. 2/ If the diagnosis asked is not only A or B, but A or B or C, you could use a weighted average approach. This involves assigning weights to each answer based on the success rate for each expert. For example, if 40% of experts think the patient is A, 53% think he is B and 68% think he is C, the weights would be 0.4, 0.53 and 0.68 respectively. The weighted average of the responses can then be calculated and used to determine the most likely diagnosis for the patient.3/ If your experts are the best Y experts out of 100, but you don't know the distribution of their success rate, you could use a similar weighted average approach. You could assign weights to each answer based on the number of experts who answered it, rather than the success rate. For example, if 40% of the best Y experts think the patient is A, 53% think he is B and 68% think he is C, the weights would be 0.4, 0.53 and 0.68 respectively. The weighted average of the responses can then be calculated and used to determine the most likely diagnosis for the patient.
 

FAQ: Maximize chance of success based on opinion poll

1. How accurate are opinion polls in predicting success?

Opinion polls can provide a general indication of public sentiment, but they are not always accurate in predicting the outcome of an event. Factors such as sampling bias and changing opinions can affect the accuracy of the results.

2. How can we increase the chances of success based on an opinion poll?

To increase the chances of success based on an opinion poll, it is important to ensure that the sample size is large enough to accurately represent the population, and that the sample is chosen randomly to avoid bias. Additionally, conducting multiple polls over time can help track changes in public opinion.

3. Can opinion polls be manipulated to influence the results?

Yes, opinion polls can be manipulated through biased sampling, leading questions, or selective reporting of results. It is important to critically evaluate the methodology and source of an opinion poll before relying on its results.

4. How do different demographics affect the outcome of an opinion poll?

Different demographics can have varying opinions on a topic, which can affect the outcome of an opinion poll. It is important to ensure that the sample is representative of the population's demographics in order to accurately predict the outcome.

5. Are there any limitations to using opinion polls to maximize chances of success?

Yes, there are limitations to using opinion polls to maximize chances of success. Opinion polls cannot account for unforeseen events or changes in public sentiment. They also cannot accurately predict the actions of individuals, as people may not always act in accordance with their stated opinions.

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