Normal distribution vs.exponential

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the use of normal distribution assumptions for bus headway times, despite inter-arrival times typically being modeled with exponential distribution. Participants question the rationale behind this assumption, suggesting factors like passenger boarding times and the nature of deviations from scheduled times may influence the choice. The central limit theorem is mentioned as a reason for preferring normal distribution due to its properties of uncertainty and fewer assumptions. There is confusion regarding the applicability of normal distribution to non-negative values, as bus headway times should not yield negative results. Overall, the conversation seeks clarity on the justification for using normal distribution in modeling bus travel times.
Mark J.
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Sorry because I have asked this other times but still not getting a reasonable answer:

For bus headway times why in several articles they make assumption of normal distribution??
Generally inter-arrival times are modeled using exponential distribution but in some papers
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/atr.5670250304/abstract
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0191261586900366

normal distribution is assumed.
Which are the reasons to make this assumption?
Maybe because the real time is calculated including time for passengers to enter in bus and departing?
Maybe because of normal distribution quality of modeling deviations from some point (scheduled time) ?

Please help
Regards
 
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Exponential distributions are a family of distributions that include the normal distribution. Generally, whenever something can be modeled by an exponential distribution and there is no addition information to clearly specify which specific exponential distribution is to be used, a normal distribution will be assumed for various reasons that include the central limit theorem and some basic results from information theory (the normal distribution has the greatest amount of "uncertainty" associated with it out of all exponential distributions, and so, in a sense, it makes fewer assumptions than the others).
 
Yes but it is rather vague.
I was thinking if travel time = bus headway + time spent at the stop then if bus headways for example are exponential and time spent at the stop some other distribution than I gues their sum is not exponential but someway renewal process so maybe there will be some approximation to normal?
 
Number nine, the normal distribution is not an example of an exponential distribution.

Mark, reading the second paper (pdf found here http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~maged/publications/Optimal%20Holding%20Times.pdf ) I see that the amount by which a bus is late is modeled as a normal distribution, but I don't see where they talk about the amount of time between buses being a normal distribution (which doesn't really make sense because the distribution should have only non-negative numbers as its support)
 
Office Shredder you are totally right.
Anyway is there any orientation about normal assumption in bus travel time modeling you can give please?
Best regards
 
Number nine, the normal distribution is not an example of an exponential distribution.

I interpreted the OP (perhaps incorrectly) as being about something from the exponential family of distributions, of which the normal distribution is a member. In retrospect, that's almost certainly not what he's talking about.
 
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