Odds your vote will be the deciding one

[archiemc]

Hi there,

I've read a lot about the odds of a vote being the deciding vote in an election with only two possible outcomes.

http://understandinguncertainty.org/when-does-single-vote-count
http://www.landsburg.com/link.pdf

But I am wondering how much more complicated does it get when more candidates are added?

For example, in a district of 28,000 with five candidates running, what would the odds be that your vote would be the deciding vote?

It is a plurality system, so is this calculation even possible? Any ideas for how to go about wrapping my mind around this?

 

[Valkarie]

The odds of your vote being the deciding vote in a district with five candidates running depends on a variety of factors, including the total number of votes cast, the percentage of the vote each candidate receives, and the margin between the top two candidates. To calculate the odds of your vote being the deciding vote, you would need to know how close the race is likely to be, as well as the total number of votes cast.If the race is expected to be close, then the odds of your vote being the deciding vote are much higher than if there is a clear frontrunner. Additionally, the total number of votes cast will affect the likelihood of your vote being the deciding vote. If 28,000 people vote and the top two candidates are separated by only a few votes, then the odds of your vote being the deciding vote are much higher than if the margin is larger.Ultimately, it is difficult to give an exact answer without taking into account all of the relevant factors. However, understanding the different variables involved can help you better understand the odds of your vote being the deciding vote in any given election.