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Odds your vote will be the deciding one

  1. Apr 17, 2012 #1
    Hi there,

    I've read a lot about the odds of a vote being the deciding vote in an election with only two possible outcomes.

    http://understandinguncertainty.org/when-does-single-vote-count
    http://www.landsburg.com/link.pdf

    But I am wondering how much more complicated does it get when more candidates are added?

    For example, in a district of 28,000 with five candidates running, what would the odds be that your vote would be the deciding vote?

    It is a plurality system, so is this calculation even possible? Any ideas for how to go about wrapping my mind around this?
     
  2. jcsd
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