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I've read a lot about the odds of a vote being the deciding vote in an election with only two possible outcomes.

http://understandinguncertainty.org/when-does-single-vote-count

http://www.landsburg.com/link.pdf

But I am wondering how much more complicated does it get when more candidates are added?

For example, in a district of 28,000 with five candidates running, what would the odds be that your vote would be the deciding vote?

It is a plurality system, so is this calculation even possible? Any ideas for how to go about wrapping my mind around this?

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# Odds your vote will be the deciding one

Can you offer guidance or do you also need help?

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