- #1

Buzz Bloom

Gold Member

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I have noticed that many PF participants seem to favor a cosmological model that our universe is infinite (and flat), but some (like myself) favor a finite universe. I have become curious about the subjective probability distribution, so I am hoping that many PF participants will post their subjective estimate of the probability P that it is infinite (or Q=1-P that it is finite).

Here are my own personal subjective probability estimates.

P = 0.2. This means the probability the universe is infinite is 20%, and the probability it is finite is 80%. The data that has mostly influenced my estimates is

I also believe that

I also understand that there are many who have reasons to believe the universe is flat, but with the understanding that the current cosmological data cannot possibly distinguish between flatness and a non-flat curvature that is so close to flat that it is not possible to have evidence that distinguishes between these two possibilities. I am wondering if they find this point of view to be interpreted to mean that the probability is close to: 50% that the universe is finite and hyper-spherical, and 50% that is infinite and flat or hyperbolic. I would guess that those who believe in the importance of the flatness problem are likely to have this 50-50 view.

At the present time I do not know how long I will want to keep the poll open. At some point when I feel I have enough contributions, i will calculate and post the mean and standard deviation values.

ADDED May 29

I have decided to cancel this poll since there were NO votes cast during the two weeks since I posted the poll.

Here are my own personal subjective probability estimates.

P = 0.2. This means the probability the universe is infinite is 20%, and the probability it is finite is 80%. The data that has mostly influenced my estimates is

I also believe that

__if__the universe is finite, is is hyper-spherical rather than some other topological shape. Also, if it is infinite, it is flat and not hyperbolic.I also understand that there are many who have reasons to believe the universe is flat, but with the understanding that the current cosmological data cannot possibly distinguish between flatness and a non-flat curvature that is so close to flat that it is not possible to have evidence that distinguishes between these two possibilities. I am wondering if they find this point of view to be interpreted to mean that the probability is close to: 50% that the universe is finite and hyper-spherical, and 50% that is infinite and flat or hyperbolic. I would guess that those who believe in the importance of the flatness problem are likely to have this 50-50 view.

At the present time I do not know how long I will want to keep the poll open. At some point when I feel I have enough contributions, i will calculate and post the mean and standard deviation values.

ADDED May 29

I have decided to cancel this poll since there were NO votes cast during the two weeks since I posted the poll.

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