Poisson distribution problem help

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a problem involving the Poisson distribution, specifically calculating the probability of receiving more calls than a new system can handle in a given time frame. The context includes theoretical understanding and application of the Poisson distribution in a practical scenario related to call handling capacity.

Discussion Character

  • Homework-related
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant seeks assistance with a Poisson distribution problem regarding call handling capacity, noting that the mean number of calls is 2 every 10 minutes.
  • Another participant prompts for clarification on the value of λ in the Poisson distribution for this scenario.
  • A participant expresses the need for guidance on defining the segment unit and confirms that the mean is already provided as 2 calls for 10 minutes.
  • There is a suggestion that the event of interest is the probability of receiving more than 5 calls, P{X>5}.
  • A later reply provides a formula for calculating P{X>5} using the complement of the cumulative distribution function.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the parameters of the problem, including the mean and the time segment. However, there is no consensus on the approach to calculating the probability, as participants are still discussing the methodology.

Contextual Notes

There is some uncertainty regarding the definitions of segment size and the event of interest, as well as the application of the Poisson table for probability calculations.

gfields
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I need help with aPoisson distribution problem please. Question is: company capable of handling 5 calls every 10 min on new system. Prior to new system, company analysts determined incoming calls to the system are Poisson distributed w/ a mean equal to 2 every 10 min. what is the probability that in a 10 min period more calls will arrive than the system can handle?
 
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Hi gfields! :smile:

What have you tried?

Obviously, we're going to work with a random variable X such that X is Poisson([itex]\lambda[/itex]) distributed. What do you think [itex]\lambda[/itex] is in this case?
 
I am taking this class online...no instructor...no interaction. I need some guidance on how to think this through. The book is helpful but still lacks clarity.

I understand that the mean before the old system was 2 calls for 10 minutes.

I need to define the segment unit to do the problem... 10 minutes??
The mean is already defined for me. 2
Defining the segment size would be next. I need some discussion here to understand exactly what to use.The event of interest would be P>5 correct?

Once this information is calculated...the Poisson table can be used to find the probability and a comment on the adequacy of the new system can be made.
 
gfields said:
I am taking this class online...no instructor...no interaction. I need some guidance on how to think this through. The book is helpful but still lacks clarity.

I understand that the mean before the old system was 2 calls for 10 minutes.

I need to define the segment unit to do the problem... 10 minutes??

Good!

The mean is already defined for me. 2

Also good.

Defining the segment size would be next. I need some discussion here to understand exactly what to use.The event of interest would be P>5 correct?

Indeed, you'll need to calculate [itex]P\{X>5\}[/itex]. You can use tables to calculate this, but you can also do it by hand easily:

[itex]P\{X>5\}=1-P\{X\leq 5\}=1-e^{-2}(1+2+\frac{2^2}{2!}+\frac{2^3}{3!}+\frac{2^4}{4!}+\frac{2^5}{5!})[/itex]
 

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