Question about normal distribution in probabilty

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a probability question related to the normal distribution, specifically concerning the filling of bottles with oil and determining the proportion of bottles that fall outside specified limits. Participants explore the implications of the normal distribution in this context, addressing both theoretical and practical aspects of the problem.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant asserts that the normal distribution function represents the probability for a single bottle and questions how to derive the proportion of bottles out of specifications.
  • Another participant agrees that with a finite number of bottles, one can only calculate the expected proportion, which aligns with the probability for a single bottle in the limit of an infinite number of bottles.
  • A different participant suggests that the parameter '4' in the normal distribution N(3000,4) indicates the shape of the distribution curve, proposing to integrate to find the proportion outside specifications.
  • One participant reiterates the initial question and clarifies that the normal distribution can be interpreted in two ways: as the probability for a single bottle and as the percentage of all bottles not meeting specifications.
  • Another participant agrees with the initial assertion and suggests that the question likely intends to ask for the expected proportion of bottles out of specifications, while also noting the complexity of calculating the distribution of the number of out-of-spec bottles in a sample.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the interpretation of the normal distribution in relation to the problem, but there is some contention regarding the clarity of the question posed and the implications of calculating proportions versus probabilities.

Contextual Notes

There is uncertainty regarding the exact expectations of the exam question, particularly whether it seeks a straightforward probability calculation or a more complex distribution analysis. Participants also highlight the potential ambiguity in the phrasing of the question.

Fady Alphons
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I have a final exam in probability and I faced a question that made me think of the logic and the concept of the normal distribution.
Here is the question:

A food industry company imports oil in big tanks and refills bottles of different sizes with it. One of the main filling sizes is the 3000 ml, where the nominal value is 3000 ml but the actual size is a normally distributed random variable N(3000,4). The filling process acceptable specifications are 3000 ± 10 ml.
a) Determine the proportion of bottles that will be out of specifications.

My question is:
Based on my knowledge, I know that the normal distribution function would represent the probability that a single bottle would be out of specifications and not the proportion of bottles that will be out of specifications.

Am I right? If so, how can I solve such a problem?
 
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You are right that with a finite number of bottles, you cannot determine this proportion - the best thing you can do is calculate the expected proportion, which is the same as the probability that a single bottle does not meet the specifications.
In the limit of an infinite amount of bottles, the fraction is the same as the probability for a single bottle.
 
I'm not an expert on statistics, but I think that the 4 in the N(3000,4) should tell you something about the shape of the distribution curve. I would use that to determine the equation of the distribution curve and then integrate between 10 and infinity at each end to determine the proportion that was outside of the specification.
 
Fady Alphons said:
I have a final exam in probability and I faced a question that made me think of the logic and the concept of the normal distribution.
Here is the question:

A food industry company imports oil in big tanks and refills bottles of different sizes with it. One of the main filling sizes is the 3000 ml, where the nominal value is 3000 ml but the actual size is a normally distributed random variable N(3000,4). The filling process acceptable specifications are 3000 ± 10 ml.
a) Determine the proportion of bottles that will be out of specifications.

My question is:
Based on my knowledge, I know that the normal distribution function would represent the probability that a single bottle would be out of specifications and not the proportion of bottles that will be out of specifications.

Am I right? If so, how can I solve such a problem?

The normal distribution here gives the distribution of fill amount per bottle. When you calculate the chance that the fill amount is not to specification, whatever that probability is, it can be interpreted in two (equivalent) ways.

1) It is the probability that when you randomly select one bottle its fill amount is not within specification

2) It is the percentage of all bottles that are not filled to specifications
 
Fady Alphons said:
I have a final exam in probability and I faced a question that made me think of the logic and the concept of the normal distribution.
Here is the question:

A food industry company imports oil in big tanks and refills bottles of different sizes with it. One of the main filling sizes is the 3000 ml, where the nominal value is 3000 ml but the actual size is a normally distributed random variable N(3000,4). The filling process acceptable specifications are 3000 ± 10 ml.
a) Determine the proportion of bottles that will be out of specifications.

My question is:
Based on my knowledge, I know that the normal distribution function would represent the probability that a single bottle would be out of specifications and not the proportion of bottles that will be out of specifications.

Am I right? If so, how can I solve such a problem?

You are right. They are being a little bit sloppy. I think that they mean determine the EXPECTED proportion of bottles that will be out of specifications.

The only other meaning it could have would be that they wanted you to calculate the distribution of the random variable that is the number of bottles out of spec in a given sample. But that is much too hard for an undergraduate exam. Besides, if that is what they wanted they would have written so.
 

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