Random Walk on a Circle: How Does the Last Unique Position Visited Distribute?

Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The discussion centers on a random walk on a circle with N points, specifically analyzing the distribution of the last unique position visited, X[T]. It is established that this distribution is uniform over the set {1,...,N-1}. The participant, Sam, utilizes concepts from Markov chains and the Gambler's Ruin problem to derive probabilities associated with the last unique position visited. The final conclusion is that the probability for any last unique position x is consistently p = 1/(N-1).

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of Markov chains and their properties
  • Familiarity with the Gambler's Ruin problem
  • Knowledge of probability theory, particularly absorption probabilities
  • Basic concepts of random walks and their applications
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the properties of Markov chains in depth, focusing on absorption states
  • Explore the Gambler's Ruin problem and its implications in probability theory
  • Investigate advanced topics in random walks, including their applications in various fields
  • Learn about uniform distributions and their significance in probability
USEFUL FOR

Mathematicians, statisticians, and students studying probability theory, particularly those interested in random walks and Markov processes.

sam_bell
Messages
65
Reaction score
0

Homework Statement


Consider a random walk on a circle of N points, labeled {0,1,...,N-1}. Let the initial state be X = 0 and define T to be the first time all points have been visited at least once. Show that the distribution of X[T] (i.e. last unique position visited) is uniform over {1,...,N-1}.

The Attempt at a Solution


I understand the basic formulas for Markov chains; including absorption probabilities, invariant distribution, and return times. The book makes an analogy to the Gambler's Ruin problem to show E[T] = N(N-1)/2. Still, I don't know where to start.

Thanks for the help,
Sam
 
Physics news on Phys.org
I made some progress. I borrowed a result from the Gambler's Ruin problem: For the finite segment {0,...,n} the probability of being absorbed to x = n starting from x = 1 is 1/n. Knowing this, I can consider the state of the random walk on a circle by how many unique points have been discovered, and whether the last discovery was a counterclockwise point (akin to x = n) or a clockwise point (akin to x = 0). For clarity, I attached a picture of the corresponding Markov chain. Then, the final discovered point is determined by how this Markov chain is traversed. If the last discovered point is x = 1, then the Markov chain must have made a CW choice at each step. That has probability p = 1/2 * 2/3 * 3/4 ... * (N-2)/(N-1) = 1/(N-1). For x = 2 there must have been one CCW step. There are N-2 possibilities for this, i.e. p = sum( 1/2*2/3* ... (k-2)/(k-1) * 1/k *1/(k+1) * (k+1)/(k+2) * ... * (N-2)/(N-1) for k=2..N-2) + (special case for k is N-1) = sum( 1/(k(k-1)(N-1)) for k = 2 .. N-2 ) + 1/((N-2)(N-1)) = 1/(N-1) sum( 1/(k-1) - 1/k for k = 2 .. N-1 ) + 1/((N-2)(N-1)) = 1/(N-1). So for x = 1 and x = 2, the probability is p = 1/(N-1) as expected. But this expression gets cumbersome for larger x. There must be an easier way to prove this.
 

Attachments

  • markov_disc.png
    markov_disc.png
    19.5 KB · Views: 1,003

Similar threads

Replies
9
Views
4K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
1K
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
3K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
3K
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
2K
Replies
8
Views
5K
  • · Replies 15 ·
Replies
15
Views
2K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
2K
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
2K