chrisina said:
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ie, that the total matter/radiation energy is equal to the opposite of the gravitational potential energy in the form of a cosmological constant (vaccuum energy), so that the sum has always been zero.
I have seen this idea explained several times but always with some hand-waving. Alan Guth has expressed a similar notion famously by saying that "the universe may be the ultimate Free Lunch"
he was talking about the massive Conservation Violation that happens during inflation
you have a uniform scalar "inflaton" field that represents X number of joules per cubic kilometer-----this is imagined to cause a rapid accelerating expansion like today's "dark energy" but much faster-----now you have many more cubic kilometers and approximately the same density of energy of X joules in each----so you have much much more energy.
Where did all that additional energy "come" from? All the explanations I have seen, that try to show it "came" from somewhere seem forced to me.
And then this huge amount of energy created by expanding the volume occupied by the scalar field DECAYS into more usual material forms of energy and we have "reheating" that produces quarks electrons photons etc which eventually condense to form galaxies and us.
So in a sense the "inflaton" field created us, along with a huge amount of energy that nobody paid for. So that is very interesting.
What Guth (and perhaps Linde) are trying to say, I think, is that it is like a bucket being lowered into a well, where the pulley-rope turns an electric generator which powers a matter-creating machine using the electric energy to create particles, which then go to fill the bucket. So that matter fills the bucket and gives it weight, so that it can even better produce energy as it is lowered down the well, and produce more matter.
In the end the bucket is full of created matter and it sits at the bottom of this very deep well. So the matter that was created is a "free lunch" that is balanced to zero by the fact that it sits at the bottom of a deep gravity well. And so negative gravity-potential balances out positive mass-energy and the sum is zero.
I have been busy and I still have not gone to watch the Linde talk. Perhaps what i am saying is wrong or does not fit with what he said.
But anyway, right or wrong, I am doubtful and skeptical about this.
Basically I think that there are problems even DEFINING global energy in a curved spacetime context and also problems defining time globally (except in simplified solutions). So I do not understand that one should EXPECT there to be a global energy conservation law. The mathematical proof of energy conservation depends on assumptions that do not pertain to the universe, so it is nice when it happens but I do not insist on nature obeying it in all situations (nobody has to agree with me

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