Evo said:
TSA is right, pulling out of Iraq right now would be an even worse disaster, there are too many corrupt self interest groups wanting to take control. We are in a bad situation, let's not make it worse with more knee jerk decisions.
I don't know if pulling out right now would "be an even worse disaster". As the so-called "reasons" for invading Iraq have been changing every 10 minutes, there is no standard to compare with to find out if a situation is "worse" or not ; maybe according to a hidden agenda, everything is running just fine (but I have difficulties finding which one: there's only ONE agenda for which things are just fine and that's OBL's agenda).
What could be the goals, to which we have to compare the "goodness" of the situation, and hence the decisions to stay or to go ?
- WMD, imminent attack on the US or Israel: ok, you can pull out, there are no WMD (anymore?) in the hands of a terrible dictator. Goal reached (haha).
- Ousting a dictator. Saddam is no more in charge, goal reached. You can pull out.
- Bringing (superficial) democracy to Iraq. They've voted, goal reached, you can pull out.
- Fighting terrorist nests. That's gotten worse, and you're in a catch-22: if you stay, you create more terrorists, if you leave, they will consider it a victory. See further.
- Oil. I don't know if staying will further any sympathy of the future rulers of the oil wells to deal with you. To be seen.
- Fat state contracts for Bush's friends. Done. You can pull out now.
- Have fun for the military. If the idea is to have a laboratory for new military techniques, then you're indeed having what you want. Stay. Things are just perfect.
- Create a stable, Western-friendly, democratic regime in a prospering country. Goal completely f**ked up in any case. Lost case. Get out.
What are the options ?
1) asking the world to help you: I think the world will not do much, because it would only attract more troubles for those getting involved, and after being snobbed the way they were, there is a kind of "sweet revenge" in seeing the troubles. Nothing to be gained for others to get involved.
2) stay in similar ways as you are doing now. Situation will probably slowly get worse (except of course for the "military lab" option), and over the years, this will cost so much in soldier lives and money that you'll be obliged to pull out in any case. Civil war will at a certain point break out between the 3 ethnicities. It will be a huge terrorist nest.
3) take your bags and pull out. Civil war will break out, terrorists will have a victory. On the other hand, you will limit the costs and the responsability.
4) send in MASSIVE amounts of soldiers (organize a draft probably). Install a military dictatorship by those soldiers, give those soldiers double nationality so that they can go and live in Iraq (they will become "colonists"), and let them terrorize the population the way they want, and let them become rich off the money flow from the local oil production, so that they become the new "local" elite. They'll be friendly to the US (their former home country), things will be quiet and terrorists will be defeated, at least locally. The image of the US will of course get a deafening blow.
So what's the best option ?