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SelfAdjoint declared winner of first forecast poll

  1. Sep 19, 2005 #1

    marcus

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    http://citebase.eprints.org/cgi-bin/citations?id=oai:arXiv.org:hep-th/0507235

    sA predicted that Smolin "The Case for Background Independence" would garner 50-69 UK downloads thru end September 2005

    that is essentially in the first two full months (aug and sept) that it was posted it would be downloaded by that many people from the UK mirror site (which is the only one that keeps count and publishes how many)

    IT TURNED OUT so far THERE HAVE BEEN 57 UK downloads

    sA was the only PF person who guessed the correct range, other people (I think we were 5 in all) guessed other things like "below 50" and "70-89"

    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=83578

    I think, if no one objects to my announcing a winner even tho it is not yet the end of the month, that there probably aren't going to be significantly more UK downloads, so sA gets the 3 cheers and the JimmytheGreek prize.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2005
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  3. Sep 19, 2005 #2

    ohwilleke

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    I don't know. It's not over until the fat lady with a computer sings. Think of all those British grad students jamming the lines on September 30 looking deparately for their next presentation topic.
     
  4. Sep 19, 2005 #3

    marcus

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    OK, it is not over till September 30. (I know enough to concede though)
     
  5. Sep 19, 2005 #4

    Kea

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    And what about the potential for cheating....
     
  6. Sep 19, 2005 #5

    marcus

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    it's all on the honor system, Kea
     
  7. Sep 19, 2005 #6

    marcus

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    BTW Ohwilleke, and Kea,

    how many citations do you think this will have by yearend?

    http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0508202
    Fractal Spacetime Structure in Asymptotically Safe Gravity
    O. Lauscher, M. Reuter
    20 pages

    "Four-dimensional Quantum Einstein Gravity (QEG) is likely to be an asymptotically safe theory which is applicable at arbitrarily small distance scales. On sub-Planckian distances it predicts that spacetime is a fractal with an effective dimensionality of 2. The original argument leading to this result was based upon the anomalous dimension of Newton's constant. In the present paper we demonstrate that also the spectral dimension equals 2 microscopically, while it is equal to 4 on macroscopic scales. This result is an exact consequence of asymptotic safety and does not rely on any truncation. Contact is made with recent Monte Carlo simulations."

    Right now it has only one citation. It was posted 26 August 2005, just a few days ago.

    I expect it will have 4 citations by 31 December.
    Maybe that just reflects the fact that I find the paper so interesting. I think one or both of you may also have commented to that effect, which is why this Reuter paper comes to mind.
     
  8. Sep 19, 2005 #7

    Kea

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    Hi Marcus

    I can't imagine how people estimate these things. I really have no idea: but for fun, I'll guess 10, because I like their work.

    Kea :smile:
     
  9. Sep 19, 2005 #8

    marcus

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    I like their work too a whole bunch. I will start a forecast poll thread. I think the choices will be

    1 (which they have now)
    2
    3
    4 (which I guess, that means three additional citations before yearend)
    5
    6
    over 6 (that would include your guess of ten citations)
     
  10. Sep 19, 2005 #9

    selfAdjoint

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    He's giving a talk at loops 05 on essentially that topic, and there should be some schmoozing between his people, the CDT people, and anybody inspired by the occasion on it. Result, some new insights. Allow time for earliest publication, I say 2-3 cites by December 31. One of them a forehead smacker ("Why didn't we all see that?").
     
  11. Sep 19, 2005 #10

    marcus

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    Hi sA, congratulations on an accurate forecast in the Smolin poll. I've made a new forecast poll for the Reuter and would welcome it if you would register your guess!
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2005
  12. Sep 20, 2005 #11

    Chronos

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    I have friends in England. 10 days left in September?? Skewing the results is not beyond the realm of possibility... Alright already, I'm kidding.
     
  13. Sep 20, 2005 #12

    marcus

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    I think this poll (Smolin downloads) is essentially over and done with.
    Y'all put your bets down on the Reuter cites poll

    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=89854

    Not so prone to skewing (even in imagination) because it is citations not downloads. someone would have to write scholarly papers to fudge the outcome
     
  14. Sep 20, 2005 #13

    ohwilleke

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    Count me in for two citations for the fractal paper. I don't think that there are many people doing research that could easily cite it.
     
  15. Sep 20, 2005 #14

    marcus

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    Hi ohwilleke, please go to
    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=756702
    and click on the "2" button
    that will register your forecast
    (I can't do it for anyone, or would be glad to---the way it's set up only the person themselves can)
     
  16. Sep 30, 2005 #15

    marcus

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    I believe she has sung now.

    It is September 30 and SELF-ADJOINT IS THE WINNER!

    Good astute guess. The actual number turned out to be right in the middle of the range sA chose

    He estimated Smolin's paper would get 50-69 hits on the UK arxiv mirror, and as of today it has received SIXTY (that is 60)

    it also picked up 5 citations in the first two months it's been posted.

    http://citebase.eprints.org/cgi-bin/citations?id=oai:arXiv.org:hep-th/0507235

    the fifth citation came from a curious paper by Lucien Hardy
    http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0509120
    Probability Theories with Dynamic Causal Structure: A New Framework for Quantum Gravity


    Four others of us registered forecasts in the poll, to see the other guesses go here:
    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=83578


    ----------------------

    I would like to put in a plug for the ASHTEKAR AND BOJOWALD poll. So far 3 people have estimated the UK hits on their new paper by year-end and it would be nice to have a few more predictions.

    The paper appeared 18 September and in the first 2 weeks of its public existence it got 18 hits (at the UK mirror) and 2 citations.

    Please go here:
    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=90199
    and register how many hits you expect by year-end.
    I think some people habitually guess better and I'm curious to know who of us does. Maybe it can be learned?

    A curious thing is that the 3 people who already guessed in that poll (A & B hits by yearend) all made the same prediction!
    All three of us predicted 60-79 hits. Incidentally that now seems to me clearly too optimistic---or I would call it that anyway.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2005
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