Space inhabited non-stop for 20 years

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the continuous human presence in space, specifically focusing on the International Space Station (ISS) and future plans for space exploration, including the Artemis project and commercial space initiatives. Participants explore the implications of these developments for long-term human habitation in space.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the ISS has been continuously inhabited since November 2000, highlighting the significance of this milestone in human spaceflight.
  • Others mention the historical challenges faced by the ISS program, including interruptions due to the Columbia disaster and the retirement of the Space Shuttle, while emphasizing the reliability of the Russian Soyuz for crew exchanges.
  • There are discussions about future plans for the ISS, including its expected operation until at least 2030 and the potential for Axiom Space to develop an independent commercial space station.
  • Some participants express optimism about the future of human habitation in space, suggesting that if no catastrophic events occur on Earth, the number of people living in space could increase significantly over the next 30 years.
  • One participant raises concerns about the Artemis project, arguing that it currently focuses on shorter missions rather than establishing permanent crews in space and questions the financial viability of the program.
  • Another participant speculates on the geopolitical implications of space exploration, questioning whether the government would allow China to establish a base on the Moon before the US does.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of optimism and skepticism regarding the future of human habitation in space. While there is a general acknowledgment of the ongoing commitment to space exploration, there are differing views on the implications of current projects like Artemis and the potential for geopolitical competition in space.

Contextual Notes

Some limitations include the uncertainty surrounding the long-term sustainability of the ISS program, the financial implications of the Artemis project, and the geopolitical dynamics influencing space exploration efforts.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to individuals following developments in space exploration, commercial spaceflight, and international space policy.

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TL;DR
The last day without anyone in space was 31 Oct 2000.
People under 20 have never lived at a time without at least two people in space. Exactly 20 years ago, on Halloween 2000, Soyuz TM-31 launched the first long-term crew towards the ISS to start Expedition 1. They docked 2 November. Since then the ISS has been inhabited continuously.

This was by no means guaranteed. Especially the US side planned to stop the ISS program a few times and faced interruptions in spaceflight - first from the Columbia disaster then from the retirement of the Space Shuttle. The Russian Soyuz stayed available the whole time and provided most crew exchanges. Since this year the US side has the capability to launch crew again thanks to Crew Dragon, Boeing's Starliner is planned to join soon.
ISS timeline

It is planned to run the ISS at least until 2030. By that time Axiom Space wants to have its own section that can survive as independent commercial space station when the ISS program ends. Blue Origin has long-term plans to get more and more people to live and work in space. SpaceX wants to send people to Mars by 2027. The Chinese work on a space station, too.
If nothing catastrophic happens on Earth it's generally expected that we will have many more people living away from Earth in 30+ years, but the time in between is less clear. Will space keep inhabited non-stop? The last time ever where all people were on Earth (or in Earth's atmosphere) might have been in 2000.
 
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It would seem that we have a long term commitment to space exploration and travel with the Artemis project and all that goes with it.
 
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I didn't list Artemis because it's still focusing on individual shorter missions - weeks initially, maybe 2 months around 2030, but no permanent crews anywhere. And it needs a rocket that's so expensive that it will get really hard to justify the costs of that program.
 
Well, It wouldn't be the first time that the gov't pulled the plug, but would they let China put a base on the moon first?
 

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