News Speculation mounting of an attack on Iran

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The BBC has reported increasing speculation regarding a potential military strike on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, particularly before the end of President Bush's term. Analysts suggest that both Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Olmert may seek to address what they perceive as a significant threat from Iran's nuclear ambitions. The discussion includes the possibility of an attack occurring after the U.S. elections in November, potentially with the approval of the incoming president, especially if it is Republican candidate John McCain, who has previously expressed aggressive sentiments towards Iran.Concerns are raised about the implications of such an attack, with some arguing that it could destabilize Iraq further, complicating the already fragile situation there. Others note that Iran's response to an attack might not be as severe as anticipated, although the potential for retaliation remains a significant concern. The conversation also touches on the broader geopolitical dynamics, including Iran's influence in Iraq and its support for militant groups, which complicates the U.S. and Israel's strategic calculations.

Will the US and/or Israel attack Iran this year?

  • Yes

    Votes: 5 15.6%
  • No

    Votes: 27 84.4%

  • Total voters
    32
Art
The BBC has added it's voice to the mounting speculation that Bush and Olmert may be planning an attack on Iran before the end of their terms of office.

Analysis: Growing talk of Iran attack

The BBC's Middle East Editor, Jeremy Bowen, looks at increasing speculation that Iran may come under attack because of its nuclear programme.
snip
The speculation is that President George W Bush and Prime Minister Olmert want to remove what they believe is a clear and present danger before they face their own political oblivion.

Mr Bush is finishing his time at the White House still dogged by the disaster of Iraq - and Mr Olmert faces disgrace over allegations of corruption.
snip
One scenario being discussed by Israeli analysts is that there could be an attack, by Israel or by the Americans, after the US election in November and before the new president is inaugurated in January, with the tacit consent of the incoming president.

That might be easier if it is Senator Obama's Republican rival John McCain.

During the campaign for his party's nomination, he once sang "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" to the tune of the Beachboys' classic Barbara Ann.

In a less jocular moment, he said that the only thing worse than attacking Iran would be to allow it to have nuclear weapons.

Some pro-Israeli US analysts are arguing that Iran's response to an attack would not be as harsh as many have predicted.
The full article is available here http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7439431.stm

What do people here think? Will the US and/or Israel attack Iran before the end of Bush's term in office?
 
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BBC said:
...That might be easier if it is Senator Obama's Republican rival John McCain.
Hardly.
Sen. Obama at AIPAC June 4 said:
We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, everything.
...
[Iran's] president denies the Holocaust and threatens to wipe Israel off the map. The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be to eliminate this threat.

Art said:
What do people here think? Will the US and/or Israel attack Iran before the end of Bush's term in office?
Maybe sometime into an Obama Presidency based on these statements, not before.
 
Israel can do whatever it wants, but it does not have the military power to launch more than an air skirmish against Iran.

A real military campaign, aerial or ground would require the military power of the United States. The constitution is pretty explicit about the war powers being reserved to congress. Simply put, constitutionally, Bush cannot legally launch a significant air or ground strike against Iran without congressional approval, which is unlikely to be forthcoming.

Iran has been interfering with the internal affairs of Iraq, especially in the Shi'ite south for some time now in order to promote what they believe are their national interests. A limited strike against certain Iranian forces might be doable, but the consequences of the use of significant military power against Iran is going to lead to them retaliating by redoubling their efforts to destabilize Iraq, something that coalition forces absolutely cannot afford right now, as things are barely under control in the country as it is.
 
vociferous said:
but the consequences of the use of significant military power against Iran is going to lead to them retaliating by redoubling their efforts to destabilize Iraq,

I'm not so sure about that. A destabilized Iraq is not really in Iran's interest, given the border they share and various other regional issues. Although, if we replace the word "destablize" by "subvert American plans in," then that's a different story.
 
There are millions more Shia in Iraq, 60%+ of the population. I would have to see a good argument as why Iran's default policy would not be to just annex the heavily Shia parts of Iraq. At least in the Mullah's minds, I would think this likely.
 
I voted "no" because I think war is bad. :smile:

But, Israel can take care of itself and if they feel that there is an immanent threat from Iran, they have the capability to take care of it. With or without US approval/help.
 
Art said:
What do people here think? Will the US and/or Israel attack Iran before the end of Bush's term in office?
Well, at least we won't have to wait until 2012 for this one to die.
 
If what Obama says can be believed, if he's elected , Iran will conform immediately or they are toast.
 
quadraphonics said:
I'm not so sure about that. A destabilized Iraq is not really in Iran's interest, given the border they share and various other regional issues. Although, if we replace the word "destablize" by "subvert American plans in," then that's a different story.

What Iran is interested in is an Iranian puppet government in Iraq. They are not interested in a democracy, like that which exists there now.

When coalition troops withdraw, they need to leave behind a stable Iraqi democracy, otherwise it will fail, the Sunni and Shi'ite factions will engage in a civil war, with the Shi'ites supported by Iran, and the Sunnis supported by Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.

At the end of the day, the Ayatollah would probably rather see a destabilized, impotent Iraq engaged in an endless civil war than a stable, united, democratic Iraq. It is simple logic; there are more Shi'ites than Sunni Arabs, so Iranian-supported factions would have an upper hand in a civil war, and so long as Sunni Arabs in Iraq are fighting Shi'ite Arabs, they are no threat to Iran itself.

One important factor to remember is that there is still a lot of resentment and fear about Iraq, a country that fought them in a long, bloody war with plenty of ruthless violations of international law.
 
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  • #10
mheslep said:
There are millions more Shia in Iraq, 60%+ of the population. I would have to see a good argument as why Iran's default policy would not be to just annex the heavily Shia parts of Iraq. At least in the Mullah's minds, I would think this likely.

Because, it will never work so long as Iraq has a sovereign central government, and, if and when the government falls, Iran will not simply be able to send its troops waltzing into Southern Iraq. The Sunni Arab states will make sure of that. The last thing that they want is Iran to expand its influence and territory, not to mention that US and British forces could pound Iranian troops to dust from the air before they reached the border.

A direct annexation of Iraqi territory is pretty unlikely. The Iranian religious leaders may be bold, but they are not stupid. They can reap more rewards simply by supply indirect support to friendly Shi'ite factions and militias.
 
  • #11
bomb bomb iran, now that is legit. elect mccain.
 
  • #12
Obama is very clear on Iran.

The Iranian regime supports violent extremists and challenges us across the region. It pursues a nuclear capability that could spark a dangerous arms race and raise the prospect of a transfer of nuclear know-how to terrorists.

Its president denies the Holocaust and threatens to wipe Israel off the map. The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be to eliminate this threat.

(APPLAUSE)

But just as we are clear-eyed about the threat, we must be clear about the failure of today's policy. We knew in 2002 that Iran supported terrorism. We knew Iran had an illicit nuclear program. We knew Iran proposed a great threat to Israel.

But instead of pursuing a strategy to address this threat, we ignored it and instead invaded and occupied Iraq.

When I opposed the war, I warned that it would fan the flames of extremism in the Middle East. That is precisely what happened in Iran. The hard-liners tightened their grip, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in 2005. And the United States and Israel are less secure.

I respect Senator McCain, and I look forward to a substantive debate with him these next five months. But on this point, we have differed, and we will differ.

Senator McCain refuses to understand or acknowledge the failure of the policy he would continue. He criticizes my willingness to use strong diplomacy, but offers only an alternative reality, one where the war in Iraq has somehow put Iran on its heels.

The truth is the opposite: Iran has strengthened its position. Iran is now enriching uranium, and it has reportedly stockpiled 150 kilos of low-enriched uranium. Its support for terrorism and threats towards Israel have increased.

Those are the facts. And they cannot be denied. And I refuse to continue a policy that has made the United States and Israel less secure.

(APPLAUSE)

Now, Senator McCain and others offers a false choice: stay the course in Iraq or cede the region to Iran.

I reject this logic, because there is a better way. Keeping all of our troops tied down indefinitely in Iraq is not the way to weaken Iran; it is precisely what has strengthened it. It is a policy for staying, not a policy for victory.

I have proposed a responsible phased redeployment of our troops from Iraq. We will get out as carefully as we were careless getting in. We will finally pressure Iraq's leaders to take meaningful responsibility for their own future.

We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, everything.

(APPLAUSE)

That starts with aggressive, principled, tough diplomacy, without self-defeating preconditions, but with a clear-eyed understanding of our interests.

We have no time to waste. We cannot unconditionally rule out an approach that could prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

We have tried limited, piecemeal talks, while we outsourced the sustained work to our European allies. It has not worked. It is time for the United States to lead.

(APPLAUSE)

Now, there will be careful preparation. We will open up lines of communication, build an agenda, coordinate closely with our allies, especially Israel, and evaluate the potential for progress.

And contrary to the claims of some, I have no interest in sitting down with our adversaries just for the sake of talking. But as president of the United States, I would be willing to lead tough and principled diplomacy with the appropriate Iranian leaders at a time and place of my choosing, if and only if it can advance the interests of the United States.

That is my position. I want it to be absolutely clear.

Only recently have some come to think that diplomacy by definition cannot be tough. They forget the example of Truman, and Kennedy, and Reagan. These presidents understood that diplomacy, backed by real leverage, was a fundamental tool of statecraft.

And it is time to once again make American diplomacy a tool to succeed, not just a means of containing failure.

We will pursue this diplomacy with no illusions about the Iranian regime. Instead, we will present a clear choice: If you abandon your dangerous nuclear program, your support for terror, and your threats to Israel, there will be meaningful incentives, including the lifting of sanctions and political and economic integration with the international community. If you refuse, we will ratchet up the pressure.

My presidency will strengthen our hand as we restore our standing. Our willingness to pursue diplomacy will make it easier to mobilize others to join our cause.

If Iran fails to change course when presented with this choice by the United States, it will be clear to the people of Iran and to the world that the Iranian regime is the author of its own isolation. And that will strengthen our hand with Russia and China, as we insist on stronger sanctions in the Security Council.

And we should work with Europe, Japan, and the gulf states to find every avenue outside the United Nations to isolate the Iranian regime, from cutting off loan guarantees and expanding financial sanctions, to banning the export of refined petroleum to Iran, to boycotting firms associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who Quds Forces have rightly been labeled a terrorist organization.

(APPLAUSE)

I was interested to see Senator McCain propose divestment as a source of leverage, not the bigoted divestment that has sought to punish Israeli scientists and academics, but divestment targeted at the Iranian regime. It's a good concept, but not a new one.

I introduced legislation over a year ago that would encourage states and the private sector to divest from companies that do business in Iran.

(APPLAUSE)

This bill has bipartisan support. This bill has bipartisan support. But for reasons that I'll let him explain, Senator McCain never signed on. Meanwhile, an anonymous senator is blocking the bill.

It is time to pass this into law so that we can tighten the squeeze on the Iranian regime. We should pursue also unilateral sanctions that target Iranian banks and Iranian assets.

(APPLAUSE)

And if we want real leverage over Iran, we must free ourselves from the tyranny of oil.

We should work -- we should work with Israel, increasing scientific collaboration and joint research and development. The surest way to increase our leverage in the long term is to stop bankrolling the Iranian regime.

Finally, let there be no doubt: I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally, Israel. Do not be confused.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/u....html?pagewanted=6&_r=2&sq=aipac&st=nyt&scp=3
 
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  • #13
I really wonder what is the problem with Iran developing a nuclear weapon. I will of course agree that from *my* PoV, I would prefer them not to. However, if I were an Iranian, I would prefer my country to have them, I think. It would give a more secure feeling, in a world that looks upon my country in a very negative way.
I don't think Iran having nuclear weapons is an unsurmountable threat to anyone, except to those who are planning to *invade* Iran. I think the Cold War has shown us that no country possessing nuclear weapons dares to use them from the moment that the other side also has some. So let us assume for the moment that has happened what will inevitably happen one day: Iran has nukes. Indeed, I'm of the opinion that if that's what they *really* want, nobody will be able to stop them. One can slow them down, or one can try to make them change their minds. But if they don't decide themselves to change their minds, then inevitably one day they will have nuclear weapons. So let us imagine that yesterday, Iran exploded its first nuclear weapon in a test. So what ?

The only target they might really want to hit is Israel, but Israel has enough retaliatory power to rubble Iran too. So contrary to the strong words of M. Ahmadinejad, I don't think he will push the button, as he knows that he might indeed destroy Israel, but he will also destroy Iran, entirely, on the same occasion. So I bet anything you want that he won't push the button. Giving a nuke to a terrorist group is equivalent to pushing on the button, so that won't happen either.

So even if Iran has nukes, it won't do anything with them. It will only be a guarantee for them not to suffer a major invasion, that's all. That's all nukes are good for. They are impossible arms to use as offensive weapons by a nation, only as ultimately defensive weapons. MAD works. If Iraq had had nuclear weapons, the US wouldn't have invaded them, and that would have been better for everyone.
 
  • #14
So I bet anything you want that he won't push the button.
you bet with other peoples lives?

I would prefer my country to have them, I think. It would give a more secure feeling, in a world that looks upon my country in a very negative way.
I would prefer, and it would make me feel more secure, if no country waisted any more money on atomic weapons.
 
  • #15
I would prefer that nobody have nukes, and would be thrilled to see cooperative, verifiable nuclear disarmament. Absent that, the best reason to have nukes is deterrence against attack.

Israel is believed to have about 150 nukes and they are acting as if it would be the end of the world if Iran built one. That is unrealistic in the extreme, because Israel could flatten Iran like a bug.
 
  • #16
One EMP would render most of the high tech weapons and systems to the blue screen of death.

So could one really big mass ejection by the sun for that matter. ( hehe pun ) ... it's a weakness in high tech warfare and a weakness to rely on it too much.

The mutual assured destruction defense is mad-ness
 
  • #17
I voted no. However, the threat is often more effective than the execution. I can just hear Bush now.

We're going into Iran to look for WMD. This time I'm telling the truth. The Iranian people will greet us as liberators. This time I'm not just making it up. The mission will be accomplished in a few weeks. This time I really mean it.
 
  • #18
Alfi said:
The mutual assured destruction defense is mad-ness

Sure, I agree. But it is madness that works :smile: Or at least, that has shown to work at least once.

I would also prefer everybody living peaceful one next to another, but humanity has a bad record for that. And I really wonder whether, if there hadn't been any nukes, Western Europe wouldn't have been invaded by the Soviet block during the Cold War. I know that it is just opinion and can be discussed, but I tend to believe that nukes was what made the Cold war "cold". Of course with a non-negligible risk factor of blowing everything up.

So, again, me too I would prefer not there to have to be these terrible weapons. But if they can change real conflicts with real casualties into just threats and some fear, then we won something. Again, I don't mind too much any *nation* to have a few nukes. Terrorists, that's something else. But nations, no. They will not use it.
 
  • #19
g33kski11z said:
I voted "no" because I think war is bad. :smile:
The poll question was "Will the US...?", not "Should the US...?"

Looks like you've answered the wrong question.
 
  • #20
I voted No. It's not practical. The US military is overextended as it is.

Politically, it would hurt McCain and the Republicans.

Economically, it would hurt the US economy, which isn't doing so hot lately.

Congress wouldn't approve it.
 
  • #21
Astronuc said:
I voted No. It's not practical. The US military is overextended as it is.

Politically, it would hurt McCain and the Republicans.

Economically, it would hurt the US economy, which isn't doing so hot lately.

Congress wouldn't approve it.
I hope you're right. Of course, the US Congress cannot tell Israel what to do, and if Israel wants to launch a preemptive attack on Iran in the hopes of embroiling our carrier groups in the conflict we cannot control that. It is highly unlikely that Iran would absorb such an attack without engaging in hostilities against the carrier groups, and the neo-cons could characterize any US response as "self defense" and start a pretty hot war without any input from congress. The US news media is supine and the public has a tendency to wave flags and buy yellow ribbons when the war-mongers strike, so I don't think we're out of the woods based on what rational people like you or I might do.
 
  • #22
I voted no. I believe the U.S. is not strategically deployed to attack Iran at the moment.

I also believe that Israel has sufficient force and intelligence (of the CIA kind) to strategically bomb select targets to postpone Iran's development of nuclear weapons, for "another 6 months" for an indefinite amount of time.

I do not believe that Iran should be allowed to have nuclear weapons. The mere act of ownership opens up a whole new avenue of options for Iran. They have pledged to destroy Israel. The only thing that has stopped them until now is fear of retaliation.

If they possessed a nuclear weapon, they could greatly increase their support of attacks against Israel and/or directly attack Irael themselves. If we were to interfere, then the US would be the one that would have to fear retaliation, of the nuclear kind.
 
  • #23
Gokul43201 said:
Looks like you've answered the wrong question.
Questions was; Will the US and/or Israel attack Iran this year? I said No... am I missing something?? If Israel wants to attack (and feels like they have good reason to do so) I feel they would. But I hope it will not happen.
 
  • #24
turbo-1 said:
...
embroiling our carrier groups in the conflict we cannot control that. It is highly unlikely that Iran would absorb such an attack without engaging in hostilities against the carrier groups, and the neo-cons could characterize any US response as "self defense" and start a pretty hot war without any input from congress.

So, in your opinion, given the scenario you just depicted. Iran should just be allowed to attack our carrier groups without reprisal?

Thank God for the Neo-cons!
 
  • #25
seycyrus said:
So, in your opinion, given the scenario you just depicted. Iran should just be allowed to attack our carrier groups without reprisal?

Thank God for the Neo-cons!
Please stop attributing ignorant ideas to me. I never said that and you know it. If Iran attacks any members of our carrier groups, they will be counter-attacked. That's what the military does. The wild card is if Israel wants to trigger such a confrontation.
 
  • #26
turbo-1 said:
Please stop attributing ignorant ideas to me. I never said that and you know it. If Iran attacks any members of our carrier groups, they will be counter-attacked. That's what the military does. The wild card is if Israel wants to trigger such a confrontation.

Look, you set up the scneanrio. You ridiculed the idea in such a way as to suggest that such a response would be "war mongering"

And by the way, Israel wouldn't *want* to trigger such a confrontation.

Israel would attack because it want's to stop Iran from doing what Iran has said time, and time, and time again what it wants to do *Wipe Israel off the map*.
 
  • #27
Please don't read your preconceptions into what I write and attribute ignorant ideas to me. In this scenario the war-mongers would be Israel's hard-liners. With the US Navy at their back, they know they can strike with impunity, and that's a dangerous situation.

If you would like to discuss the probability raised in the OP, fine. I refuse to be drawn into an argument in which you twist and mis-characterize my every post. Enough.
 
  • #28
turbo-1 said:
Please don't read your preconceptions into what I write and attribute ignorant ideas to me.

I did not.

turbo-1 said:
...the neo-cons could characterize any US response as "self defense"...

What exactly are those quotation marks meant to signify?


turbo-1 said:
If you would like to discuss the probability raised in the OP, fine.

I already did so.

turbo-1 said:
I refuse to be drawn into an argument in which you twist and mis-characterize my every post. Enough.

And I refuse to sit back and watch *every* single aspect of every discussion turn into a rambling anti Neo-con session.

Israel has got *PLENTY* of reasons to stop Iran from devoloping nuclear weapons without any sort of evil neo-con plot.

To just throw it down for every single thing just indicates a lack of situational awareness.
 
  • #29
vanesch said:
...So, again, me too I would prefer not there to have to be these terrible weapons. But if they can change real conflicts with real casualties into just threats and some fear, then we won something. Again, I don't mind too much any *nation* to have a few nukes. Terrorists, that's something else. But nations, no. They will not use it.
Comparing Iran / Israel to the cold war rather poor analogy. Iran is not the Soviet Union. They do not completely behave as a nation-state, they still behave in part as a revolution in progress. A nation state has defined, limited goals and can be readily negotiated with; Iran is at least in part something else:
Ruling Iranian cleric Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani declared Friday that the Muslim world could survive a nuclear exchange with Israel - while accomplishing the goal of obliterating the Jewish state.

"[The] application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel - but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world," Hashemi-Rafsanjani said, in quotes picked up by the Iran Press Service
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/12/14/10132.shtml
With regards to third parties, Iran blatantly sponsors Hezbollah in Lebanon w/ cash, arms, and training. What is to stop them from likewise supplying Hezbollah or some other non-state actor w/ a weapon?
Then of course the geographical reality of MAD ala the cold war doesn't remotely apply to Iran / Israel. Iran very well could destroy Israel entirely w/ a first strike of 10 weapons not to mention its ability to strike back. Israel can not afford a guaranteed retaliatory arsenal via a massive nuclear submarine missile fleet, nor a 24/7 always in the air bomber fleet, nor a 24/7 satellite launch coverage, and certainly has no 5000 mile flight distance to give it a few minutes to prepare. No, this situation would be nothing like Cold War MAD, on the contrary it would likely force Israel into first strike move.

Finally, Iran and Israel are very likely not going to be the only players. The other Sunni Arab states are going to want to match Iran, especially Saudi Arabia who can afford to do it.

I believe Iran most likely can be dissuaded diplomatically and/or through sanctions from getting a nuclear weapon, but it also can be stopped by force if necessary.
 
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  • #30
seycyrus said:
And I refuse to sit back and watch *every* single aspect of every discussion turn into a rambling anti Neo-con session.

Discussions go where discussions go. Unless you're the OP or a moderator, there's not a lot you can do about it.
 
  • #31
Yeah, the inapplicability of the MAD paradigm is a good point. In order for MAD to operate, both sides need to have so developed a nuclear capability that they could not be reliably destroyed in a first strike. These days, that requires nuclear attack subs, if not a full panopoly of mobile launchers, bomber planes and hardened silos. There is no chance of Iran getting to that point in the foreseeable future.

Along those lines, scholars have recently pointed out that the decay of Russia's nuclear arsenal is creating a global nuclear posture of US primacy. I.e., the United States could reasonably expect to destroy the retaliatory capability of any other nuclear power in a first strike. MAD, it seems, is over with.
 
  • #32
That's key. "Mutually assured" does not apply to some country who might like to eventually get nukes, and a country like Israel that has probably 150 of them already, plus the required delivery systems.
 
  • #33
Obama the Neo-Con! Ha!

There is no greater threat to Israel - or to the peace and stability of the region - than Iran.
The Iranian regime supports violent extremists and challenges us across the region. It pursues a nuclear capability that could spark a dangerous arms race, and raise the prospect of a transfer of nuclear know-how to terrorists. Its President denies the Holocaust and threatens to wipe Israel off the map. The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be to eliminate this threat.
We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything in my power. Everything.
And we should work with Europe, Japan and the Gulf states to find every avenue outside the UN to isolate the Iranian regime - from cutting off loan guarantees and expanding financial sanctions, to banning the export of refined petroleum to Iran, to boycotting firms associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, whose Quds force has rightly been labeled a terrorist organization.
Finally, let there be no doubt: I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally Israel. Sometimes there are no alternatives to confrontation. But that only makes diplomacy more important. If we must use military force, we are more likely to succeed, and will have far greater support at home and abroad, if we have exhausted our diplomatic efforts.

Sorry Seycyrus, I just couldn't resist.
 
  • #34
lisab said:
Discussions go where discussions go. Unless you're the OP or a moderator, there's not a lot you can do about it.

Excuse me?

I can do exactly what I said I was going to do about it. *Not sit back*
 
  • #35
turbo-1 said:
Israel is believed to have about 150 nukes and they are acting as if it would be the end of the world if Iran built one. That is unrealistic in the extreme, because Israel could flatten Iran like a bug.
Well, there is the slight issue of Iran's intentions for the people of Israel. The situations are not exactly mirror images of each other.
 
  • #36
jimmysnyder said:
However, the threat is often more effective than the execution.
Yes. It is just plain incorrect foreign policy to take the threat of force off the table. Obama knows this, which is why he doesn't do it.
 
  • #37
seycyrus said:
And I refuse to sit back and watch *every* single aspect of every discussion turn into a rambling anti Neo-con session.

lisab said:
Discussions go where discussions go. Unless you're the OP or a moderator, there's not a lot you can do about it.
And something is going to be done about it. We will be raising the level of maturity of discussions here to an adult level. No more hysterics, no more name calling, no more hate mongering.

I am working on a new sticky on what is acceptable here. In the mean time I advise all posters to keep discussions civil and adult.
 
  • #38
Evo said:
And something is going to be done about it. We will be raising the level of maturity of discussions here to an adult level. No more hysterics, no more name calling, no more hate mongering.

I am working on a new sticky on what is acceptable here. In the mean time I advise all posters to keep discussions civil and adult.
Thanks, Evo.
 
  • #39
Tsu said:
:smile::smile::smile::smile:

Tsu. I only quoted your post because I would like to see you at the OCF this year.

As far as this thread goes... I've had this argument at another website:
http://www.mkaku.org/forums/showthread.php?t=939&highlight=iran

I have to out myself... I'm the Crackpot...

Anything that we can do to keep us from attacking Iran would, in my opinion, save this world from a whole lot of grief.

Iran and the USofA need to start talking, and it should not be in the language of bombs.
 
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  • #40
OmCheeto said:
Iran and the USofA need to start talking, and it should not be in the language of bombs.

It EXTREMELY pains me to think we may bomb Iran. I had so many friends from college who were Iranian. They were always smart, generous, well-read, funny.
 
  • #41
OmCheeto said:
Tsu. I only quoted your post because I would like to see you at the OCF this year.

As far as this thread goes... I've had this argument at another website:
http://www.mkaku.org/forums/showthread.php?t=939&highlight=iran

I have to out myself... I'm the Crackpot...

Anything that we can do to keep us from attacking Iran would, in my opinion, save this world from a whole lot of grief.

Iran and the USofA need to start talking, and it should not be in the language of bombs.

OmCheeto, I go to the Oregon Country Fair EVERY year! :biggrin:
http://www.oregoncountryfair.org/


In fact, I'll be there while you are at your OCF (Obsessive Compulsion Foundation?) meeting, and, trust me, I'll be having LOTS more fun than you. :smile:

I agree with you about the US and Iran needing to start talking. Vote Obama.
 
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  • #42
even i am not that cynical.
 
  • #43
Tsu said:
OmCheeto, I go to the Oregon Country Fair EVERY year! :biggrin:
http://www.oregoncountryfair.org/


In fact, I'll be there while you are at your OCF (Obsessive Compulsion Foundation?) meeting, and, trust me, I'll be having LOTS more fun than you. :smile:

I agree with you about the US and Iran needing to start talking. Vote Obama.

Uh uh... I just went back and found the first picture taken of me at the OCF. I always thought it was one of my best pictures. But I did a 90' rotation and see now that I was completely out of my mind that evening. My friends will confirm that I never remember anything from the fair, and therefore, by the definition of the 60's, I've been to the fair, and you haven't. I think... errr... Go Obama! Sho Ma Chatori!
 
  • #44
OmCheeto said:
Uh uh... I just went back and found the first picture taken of me at the OCF. I always thought it was one of my best pictures. But I did a 90' rotation and see now that I was completely out of my mind that evening. My friends will confirm that I never remember anything from the fair, and therefore, by the definition of the 60's, I've been to the fair, and you haven't. I think... errr... Go Obama! Sho Ma Chatori!

:smile::smile::smile:

Hey, I said I GO to the fair every year. I NEVER said I REMEMBER it! :biggrin:

p.s. OMG! Was that YOU in that picture? I always wondered who that out-of-his-mind-guy was... :biggrin:
 
  • #45
lisab said:
It EXTREMELY pains me to think we may bomb Iran. I had so many friends from college who were Iranian. They were always smart, generous, well-read, funny.

But, what do they have to do with the government of Iran? I'm Iranian and I don't trust the gov. of Iran with a nuclear anything.
 
  • #46
mheslep said:
Comparing Iran / Israel to the cold war rather poor analogy. Iran is not the Soviet Union. They do not completely behave as a nation-state, they still behave in part as a revolution in progress. A nation state has defined, limited goals and can be readily negotiated with; Iran is at least in part something else:

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/12/14/10132.shtml

That's bully talk, one shouldn't take it seriously. That's like way back, Saddam giving bully talk. One shouldn't believe all that. The Iranians want power and influence, they don't want smoking smoldering cities. Certainly the guys on top.

With regards to third parties, Iran blatantly sponsors Hezbollah in Lebanon w/ cash, arms, and training. What is to stop them from likewise supplying Hezbollah or some other non-state actor w/ a weapon?

Well, the former soviet union and the Chinese also sponsored certain terrorist organisations. But they didn't distribute nukes.


Then of course the geographical reality of MAD ala the cold war doesn't remotely apply to Iran / Israel. Iran very well could destroy Israel entirely w/ a first strike of 10 weapons not to mention its ability to strike back. Israel can not afford a guaranteed retaliatory arsenal via a massive nuclear submarine missile fleet, nor a 24/7 always in the air bomber fleet, nor a 24/7 satellite launch coverage, and certainly has no 5000 mile flight distance to give it a few minutes to prepare.

Not at all. Even with 10 nukes, you cannot be sure that you have taken out all launching capability of Israel. In fact, it is pretty certain that you haven't. Even if Israel has only 10-20% of its retaliation capability left, that would still hurt badly, and Iran would still be bombed into the middle ages. And hey, if ever they do that, they might not only face Israelian nukes. They are SURE they will get several Israelian nukes on their head, and they can expect also several other nukes on their heads.

No, this situation would be nothing like Cold War MAD, on the contrary it would likely force Israel into first strike move.

Israel will also never do a first strike. They are reasonable. They would loose ALL support worldwide if they do so, and they might get some nukes on their heads too.

Finally, Iran and Israel are very likely not going to be the only players. The other Sunni Arab states are going to want to match Iran, especially Saudi Arabia who can afford to do it.

Which would bring the whole middle east to a big stale mate, probably the best thing that can happen there.

I believe Iran most likely can be dissuaded diplomatically and/or through sanctions from getting a nuclear weapon, but it also can be stopped by force if necessary.

I'm not against putting pressure on them to change their minds. But if they are decided to get a nuke, then they will sooner or later get one. And the more they feel threatened, the more they are likely to want one.

There is something which is illogical in the whole thing. If you think that the Iranians are ready to sacrifice 3/4 of their cities and people just to be able to level Israel (which I don't think they are REALLY ready for, even though they might say so: I call them bluff), what might make you think that some sanctions and some minor bombing will make them change their minds ? And if that can make them change their minds, that means that BY FAR they are not going to risk (despite their saying) a nuclear conflict with Israel.

And, again, if they really want to make a nuke, they will sooner or later have one. It might take 5 years, or it might take 20 years, or 50, but they will make one if that's what they want. The laws of nature are the same for everybody.
 
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  • #47
vanesch said:
That's bully talk, one shouldn't take it seriously. That's like way back, Saddam giving bully talk. One shouldn't believe all that.

Unfortunately, world history has shown what can happen when words are just dismissed as "bully" talk.

Compound this with the fact that we are faced with zealots who think that straping a vest on and blowing up a wedding is a perfectly legitimate sense of action.

vanesch said:
Well, the former soviet union and the Chinese also sponsored certain terrorist organisations. But they didn't distribute nukes.

Vanesch, I do not believe that representatives of these countries have proclaimed that they will wipe another country off the map. Have they or any other governments made any statements that rise to this level?

Israel does not have the luxury to believe that Iran is bluffing.

The Cuban missile crisis would never have been averted if it was just assumed that both sides were bluffing. Negotiations were made (even if they were behind the door) not because both sides were willing to call the other guys bluff, but because both sides believed the other sides intentions were as stated.

Do we want to reach *that* level again? I use the word *we* in a global sense. Certainly the US will not be the one that has to decide if anyone is bluffing.

The guys making *that* call will be Israel and Iran.

That is why this is a serious issue, the fact that two most important players (Iran and Israel) might *not* be joking.

To simply throw down the words *neo-con plot* marginalizes the very real, the very historical, and the very deadly potential of this crisis.

This issue did not suddenly popped up in the last 8 years. It has evolved to the present crisis, in my opinion because we have in the past ignored it, or decided that both sides were bluffing.

The fact's are as follows.

A) Iran has stated that it will destroy Israel.

B) Isael has stated that it will not give Iran the opportunity to do so.

Maybe we should take them at their word and work on changing these two facts?
 
  • #48
seycyrus said:
Unfortunately, world history has shown what can happen when words are just dismissed as "bully" talk.

I guess you refer to Hitler and Chamberlain. The difference is, Hitler didn't think that he was going to level Germany when he started WWII. The Japanese didn't think they'd get some nukes on their head when they bombed Pearl Habor. However, Israel as well as Iran (assuming they both have nuclear weapons one day) *know* that if they nuke the other, they are going to be fried themselves, one way or another. It is *this* situation which has to prevail: that each side knows very well that he will be leveled when he pushes the button. I think you can search through history, this has never happened, that leaders wage a war of which they know beforehand that it will lead to total destruction of their own country. True, it happened to Germany and Japan, but their leaders thought it wouldn't.

Compound this with the fact that we are faced with zealots who think that straping a vest on and blowing up a wedding is a perfectly legitimate sense of action.

Well, playing with nukes is strapping on *yourself* with the vest, instead of sending a few lunatics doing it. In other words, you know that you will blow up your own country, even if you succeed in blowing up the other.

Vanesch, I do not believe that representatives of these countries have proclaimed that they will wipe another country off the map. Have they or any other governments made any statements that rise to this level?

Words are only to impress someone. What counts are genuine intentions, and deeds.

Israel does not have the luxury to believe that Iran is bluffing.

Of course it has that luxury. It's just words.

The Cuban missile crisis would never have been averted if it was just assumed that both sides were bluffing. Negotiations were made (even if they were behind the door) not because both sides were willing to call the other guys bluff, but because both sides believed the other sides intentions were as stated.

It was a poker game. What was a possibility was that the US would have attacked the Cuban bases. The real danger at that point was that the Soviet military *in Cuba* had the possibility of launching an attack themselves, even without Russian consent. What was also a danger was that that crazy general Power was just itching to launch an all-out strike on the Soviet Union. But if the Americans would have attacked Cuba, and there wouldn't have been any local initiatives at launching the missiles by the local military under attack, then I'm 100% certain that the Soviets wouldn't have gone for a war.

Now, you cite the Cuban missile crisis. It was part of the risk to pay. But I cited you the fact that nuclear weapons stopped the Soviet invasion of Western Europe. Conventionally, they could do it. My father, who worked as a military for NATO, has participated in studies that showed that it would take them less than a week to run over Europe if they put all their means to it in the 70ies. Western Europe has to thank its freedom in the second half of the 20ieth century to the threat of nuclear missiles. Now, I agree that it was a dangerous game to play, but it paid off. You win some, you lose some.

I think that a similar effect might play in the ME.

Do we want to reach *that* level again? I use the word *we* in a global sense. Certainly the US will not be the one that has to decide if anyone is bluffing.

The guys making *that* call will be Israel and Iran.

That is why this is a serious issue, the fact that two most important players (Iran and Israel) might *not* be joking.

I'm 100% sure that they are. Well, 99.999%. In fact, the most dangerous moment is *now*, when Israel might be tempted to use its nuclear supremacy while it still had it - in the same way as the years 46-beginning '50 were the most dangerous ones, because the US was hesitating whether to use its temporary nuclear supremacy to bomb the Soviet Union.

Best would be if all the major players in the area would have a reasonable arsenal of nukes. Them staring at each other, watching every move, playing poker games, and, 50 years later, decide to call it off and disarm together.

This issue did not suddenly popped up in the last 8 years. It has evolved to the present crisis, in my opinion because we have in the past ignored it, or decided that both sides were bluffing.

The fact's are as follows.

A) Iran has stated that it will destroy Israel.

B) Isael has stated that it will not give Iran the opportunity to do so.

Maybe we should take them at their word and work on changing these two facts?

Well, the best thing to do is to just let them face their own words and decisions, and they will realize themselves (just as the US and the Soviet Union did) that they are before an impossible choice - no matter how big-mouthed they were before.
Of course, the game is not without a risk. It can turn wrong. They can blow themselves up. That's a risk to run. So be it. It's the price to pay for "cold" in a cold war.
 
  • #49
vanesch said:
Words are only to impress someone. What counts are genuine intentions, and deeds.

Who are they trying to impress, and to what effect? Like it or not, one of the best ways we have to gauge intent is their words.

vanesch said:
Of course it has that luxury. It's just words.

Words can indicate intent. Due to the high stakes, words cannot just be dismissed.


vanesch said:
It was a poker game...

I think you too casually dismiss the high level of tension. It was genuine! The situation was resolved because both players negotiated as if the other side wasn't bluffing.


vanesch said:
Now, you cite the Cuban missile crisis. It was part of the risk to pay. But I cited you the fact that nuclear weapons stopped the Soviet invasion of Western Europe.

The Soviet Union would not have been able to threaten Western Europe if it did not have nuclear weapons.

That is an important factor. Mere possession would give Iran the freedom to do basically whatever it wanted, not neccessarily resorting to nuclear means. Think the rocket and suicide attacks on Israel are bad now? Wait until Iran formally begins financing them.

vanesch said:
I'm 100% sure that they are. Well, 99.999%. In fact, the most dangerous moment is *now*, when Israel might be tempted to use its nuclear supremacy while it still had it -

I sense a disparity here in the fact that you seem to assign a smaller likelihood that the Israel's are *just bluffing*.

It is my contention that we are in our present pickle because of the belief that Iran doesn't really mean it.

vanesch said:
...
Of course, the game is not without a risk. It can turn wrong. They can blow themselves up. That's a risk to run. So be it. It's the price to pay for "cold" in a cold war.

That is too casual of an attitude.

I for one, do not have to watch my grandchildren read their history books and ask me, "Granpa, If Iran kept saying they were going to destroy Israel, why did we let them do it? Were the Jews bad men?"
 
  • #50
People seem to be forgetting Iran does not have a nuclear weapon program according to the US intelligence services. The idea that Iran should be attacked in case they ever do have one is more than a little insane.

It is also bemusing that those so quick to call for the destruction of Iran because of a weapon they may one day develop make no such condemnation of the serial aggressor nation Israel who has at least 150 nuclear bombs. Why not call for a totally nuclear free ME? I am sure Iran and others would be far less likely to ever even attempt to develop nuclear weapons if they didn't feel threatened by Israel's.

In the meantime the only real bargaining chip Iran has to ward off an illegal attack by the 'peace loving' Israelis is their ability to close the gulf to shipping and so starve the world of oil. There is a pipeline to Israel which could be used instead but America's supposed best friend Saudi Arabia won't ship oil through Israel. That leaves Syria as a possible export outlet which no doubt explains the sudden flurry of diplomatic activity to try to reach a settlement with Syria.
 

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