Statistics help Subjective Probability

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the validity of subjective probability, specifically addressing the statement that subjective probability based on intuition and experience has little use in the real world. Participants argue that subjective probability, which is derived from personal judgment, is indeed valuable, as illustrated by the example of finding edible nuts under trees. The conclusion drawn is that subjective probability can significantly influence decision-making and outcomes in practical scenarios.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of subjective probability concepts
  • Familiarity with probability theory fundamentals
  • Experience in applying probability in real-world scenarios
  • Knowledge of decision-making processes influenced by intuition
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the applications of subjective probability in behavioral economics
  • Explore case studies on decision-making influenced by intuition
  • Learn about Bayesian probability and its relation to subjective assessments
  • Investigate cognitive biases that affect subjective probability judgments
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for students of statistics, behavioral economists, and professionals in fields requiring decision-making under uncertainty, such as finance and risk management.

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Homework Statement



(T/F) Subjective probability based on intuition and experience has little use in the real world.


Homework Equations



(no equations needed for it is T/F)


The Attempt at a Solution



I believe this is False because subject probability is probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur
 
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It's a very broad question. Maybe the teacher just wants to see whether you have given the question some thought.

The probability of discovering an edible nut under any random tree in a forest is low. (You learn that by experience.) But should you, by chance, discover a nut on the ground under a tree, then the probability of finding a second (and a third ...) under that same tree is so high as to make it worth your time and effort to search around quite painstakingly.

So, with that in mind, I would conclude that probability can prove very useful. (A really dumb animal would stop and eat the nut it almost walked on, but then blunder on in the direction is was headed and not stay and search around further.)
 

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