Yes. That is how weather forecasting is done now.Can Tornado be predicted or forecasted using Supercomputers ?
The error in the prediction will probably be more than the distance you can evacuate in the time available. There will be traffic jams and deaths on the road during evacuation. It is lower cost and safer, to have part of the house built as a secure shelter for the residents and for storage of valuables.As you mentioned, there may be no time for evacuation, if the prediction was done well in advanced with 100% accuracy by Supercomputers, this could have been possible?
With today's technology, 100% accuracy may identify the likelihood of a tornado. Still, the location where it touches down, and where it travels after touchdown may be 50 miles wide. It sounds like you're thinking a forecast pinpointing it to a single house or neighborhood.if the prediction was done well in advanced with 100% accuracy
The possibility of a stormy weather which may lead to a tornado can be predicted by days ahead with good accuracy, but the exact locations and tracks cannot. They are fairly random within an area (this area may be really big).Can Tornado be predicted or forecasted using Supercomputers ?
True, but the intensity forecasts have gotten good enough that decision makers need to start trusting them more. Right now they are willing to make decisions of forecast tracks but not forecast intensity. Louisiana wasted a day when they should have been evacuating before Ida this summer and then essentially blamed the prediction for not being convincing enough. (governor? Mayor of New Orleans? I don't remember who exactly said it)Also one should consider the predictions of Hurricanes. The programs have become pretty good at determining the track of these storms but it is apparently (I have heard the "experts" say this) much harder to determine the strength of the storm with time.
There are a lot of different mechanisms that we’re aware of that potentially could produce a tornado. Generally speaking, you need a supercell thunderstorm. That supercell thunderstorm begins to rotate at the mid levels and that process produces a downdraft that then causes rotation at the surface to become more intense, and eventually we refer to it as a tornado when it exceeds 50 miles per hour. But the exact mechanisms of tornado formation are still an open topic of scientific research.
'Tornado Alley' has traditionally been associated with the region from W. Texas (mainly panhandle) up through Minnesota into Wisconsin. However, it appears that the region for tornadoes has expanded or shifted slightly eastward, or both (into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys). We now see extreme weather events like last week in places that have not experienced such activity in last couple of hundred years or so. The Gulf and Atlantic coasts experince strong thunderstorms and an occasional hurricane, but that weather (and now climate) can be experienced in the NE US on a more frequent basis.The ingredients are different than Great Plains tornadoes.
However such simulation are still highly susceptible to "garbage-in-garbage-out" - can you actually determine the REQUIRED initial conditions and boundary conditions for the simulation to have any fidelity.Yes. That is how weather forecasting is done now.
One hour predictions are accurate. One day predictions are less accurate.
Radar will show the current position. How much accuracy do you require?