Treatise on Probability - Keynes

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on John Maynard Keynes' "Treatise on Probability," published in 1921, and its relevance in contemporary academic circles. Participants express skepticism regarding the book's significance, noting its limited mathematical content, consisting of only ten equations amidst extensive text. A key point raised is Keynes' assertion that some probabilities cannot be quantified, exemplified by statements like "probably it will rain today." Overall, the consensus leans towards viewing the book as less relevant today, particularly in light of advancements in probability theory following Kolmogorov's contributions.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts
  • Familiarity with Kolmogorov's probability theory
  • Knowledge of Keynesian economics
  • Ability to analyze historical academic texts
NEXT STEPS
  • Research Kolmogorov's axioms of probability
  • Explore modern interpretations of Keynesian economics
  • Examine the evolution of probability theory post-1921
  • Investigate the role of qualitative probability in contemporary statistics
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Students of economics, statisticians, historians of mathematics, and anyone interested in the intersection of probability theory and economic thought.

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I don't consider this book relevant. Not because it's old, but because I browsed the book and only saw 10 equations and the rest all text...
 
Ya. you are right about the equations part.

But I found the book a bit weird because the author maintains that some probabilities are not numerically measurable.

For ex - according to the author it doesn't make sense to talk about the probability numerically when we say "probably it will rain today".

Hence I wanted to know what the general consensus is on his theory of probability in modern academic circles.

I guess Keynes is more famous for his works on economics.
 

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