Vaccines: Overwhelming Benefits, Few Risks

[OmCheeto]

When will that happen with the Corona virus?

To act responsibly? Or when will this get "personal"?
I don't know that there's anything people can do about it, as there's no vaccine.

According to the charts @ wiki, and my always suspicious maths, the entire world will be infected in approximately 35 days: March 2nd, 2020.
At which point we will each have 1 chance in 35 of dying.

Though, I suspect it won't be quite this grim.
It will be interesting though.
I just spent about an hour skimming through the Washington Post's "coronavirus-china-latest-updates" article.
Wow!

 

[Rive]

...At which point we will each have 1 chance in 35 of dying.

Though, I suspect it won't be quite this grim.

Erm. That time with the H1N1 it was 'interesting' to see the difference between countries. Ukraine got it worst as I recall: once the hospitals got overrun with patients the mortality peaked several times over the 'normal' value.

 

[OmCheeto]

Erm. That time with the H1N1 it was 'interesting' to see the difference between countries. Ukraine got it worst as I recall: once the hospitals got overrun with patients the mortality peaked several times over the 'normal' value.

From the graph, it is my guess that some countries didn't bother going to much trouble diagnosing who had it.
While other countries, Italy and France in particular, seemed to be giving out candy for each confirmed case.

data source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country

ps. It's odd, but I have no recollection of the 2009 pandemic.

 

[Rive]

From the graph, it is my guess that some countries didn't bother going to much trouble diagnosing who had it.

No mention there about the amount of actual tests performed and the population per countries: without that it's difficult to take that 'statistics' seriously...

Belarus: 86% dead among the confirmed cases
Guess they made the test only on patients already on intensive care with pneumonia.

ps. It's odd, but I have no recollection of the 2009 pandemic.

It was quite an odd pandemic, actually. I think we got off easy that time.
I had some bouts 'at home' against some anti-vaxers, that's why I have more memories.

 

[OmCheeto]

No mention there about the amount of actual tests performed and the population per countries: without that it's difficult to take that 'statistics' seriously...

Belarus: 86% dead among the confirmed cases
Guess they made the test only on patients already on intensive care with pneumonia.It was quite an odd pandemic, actually. I think we got off easy that time.
I had some bouts 'at home' against some anti-vaxers, that's why I have more memories.

If one counts the number of deaths compared to the entire population, the oddballs get lost in the data.

It looks like Columbia was in the middle with 5.3 deaths per million population. That's about 1 in 200,000. That seems like a very low rate to me. It's no wonder I don't remember it.

 

[WWGD]

With Venezuela in the condition its in now, seems a plague would have free rein there, with people weakened by hunger and the extreme shortage of most basic medicines. Maybe similar for others like NK.

 

[fresh_42]

According to the charts @ wiki, and my always suspicious maths, the entire world will be infected in approximately 35 days: March 2nd, 2020.
At which point we will each have 1 chance in 35 of dying.

I took the chance and added a SIR calculator on
https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...h-physics-earth-and-other-curiosities.970262/

 

[BWV]

Regardless of who gets infected the odds of dying remain constant at 100%

 

[WWGD]

Regardless of who gets infected the odds of dying remain constant at 100%

You mean for the Corona virus? And for now?

 

[PAllen]

You mean for the Corona virus? And for now?

Birth is a 100% fatal condition.

 

[BillTre]

Life is a terminal disease.

 

[fresh_42]

Life is a terminal disease.

$a.a.$

 

[WWGD]

$a.a.$

Almost Always?

 

[fresh_42]

Almost Always?

Well, there are rumors ...

 

[WWGD]

Bah, I keep falling for the same.

 

[Nik_2213]

IIRC, SARS' lethal cytokine storm was thwarted by canny Canadian medics who treated it with steroids per 'normal' pneumonia. (*)

But, making a zillion doses ASAP then delivering them to affected areas is non-trivial...

*) Speaking of 'normal' threats, you have had your 'seasonal' 'flu vaccination and your 'decadal' pneumonia equivalent ? Be real-silly to dodge the nasty nCV, but succumb to something so easily prevented or mitigated.

Worst case, if your hospital goes 'Code Black', those vaccinations may earn you potentially life-saving triage points, unto 'Is Worth Treating'...

 

[Bandersnatch]

Life is a terminal disease.

Luckily, its basic reproduction number has been declining worldwide.

Spoiler

 

[WWGD]

Luckily, its basic reproduction number has been declining worldwide.

Spoiler

View attachment 256294

Unfortunately, the decrease is not equally weighted between the developed and non-developed countries. Ethiopia and Nigeria alone will be adding a total of some 340 million people by 2050 ; 120 and 220 million respective ly, per CIA's world factbook.

 

[Bandersnatch]

@WWGD that's total change in population (in this analogy ~total number of infected individuals). Their fertility rate drop is among the sharpest.

 

[WWGD]

@WWGD that's total change in population (in this analogy ~total number of infected individuals). Their fertility rate drop is among the sharpest.

By fertility rate you mean the average number of children?

 

[Bandersnatch]

Yes. Per a woman's lifetime, to be precise.

 

[WWGD]

Yes. Per a woman's lifetime, to be precise.

Ok. I remember at some point Kenya had a growth rate of around 4.3% growth rate, doubling in less than 17 yrs. Crazy. I think Uganda's is similarly high even now.