News What exactly is the employment situation in the US?

[russ_watters]

The discussion has always been mixed with others, so let's make this thread just about the employment situation in the US. A large part of the recent debates have focused on the viability of unemployment statistics and whether or not they accurately reflect the employment situation in the US. I will concede, right from the start, that unemployment stats alone do not tell the whole story. But be that as it may, I think the other pertinent data supports the position that the employment situation is both "good" (relative to the past) and improving.

To start, some stats:

-The official unemployment rate for the US in July was 5.0% (SOURCE)
-Jobless claims are down since last year (same source)
-Job creation is up since last year (same source)
-Adjusted for inflation, the incomes for the lower three fifths of the population have decreased slightly and the upper two fifths have increased slightly (none by more than .1% between 2002 and 2003 (2004 numbers are not out). (http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc/h03ar.html )
-All fifths (and the top 1%) are below where they were in 1999, inflation adjusted.

Now, something claimed by others (and I'll let them substantiate it) is that the number of people in the workforce, but not employed is rising. The data, imo, is contrived: ie, not real. Others have admitted the difficulty in finding that stat, but I have speculated some reasons why the workforce would not rise as fast as the population. So, some new data for that speculation:

-The workforce participation rate of people aged 65 and older has been declining relatively steadily for the past 120 years. (SOURCE)

This is a key stat that I'd conjectured about before, but have since found: Because, as time passes, less people work as the get older, the labor force will not grow as fast as the population.

Also, something that has not yet had much of an effect, and we haven't discussed much, the baby boom generation is approaching retirement. Whatever the situation today, the coming decade will see labor foce growth drop, possibly creating a labor shortage.

 

[russ_watters]

Just a little more... We discussed the labor force growth discrepancy before, and http://immigration.about.com/cs/economicslabor/a/laborforcegrowt_2.htm is some information that says the discrepancy may be explained by fact that the number of people working under contract, off the books, or self-employed is growing.

The nation’s two most prominent employment surveys, the CPS and the CES, are issued each month to provide an accurate picture of the nation’s employment trends, but their findings have never been further apart,” said Paul Harrington, co-author of the report. “The CPS survey (household survey of those 16 and older) and the CES (survey derived from company payroll reports) have experienced a widening gap since the end of the recession in November 2001. That’s because Americans are increasingly working on contract, are self-employed, working as consultants or earning their living off-the-books. So while companies report that they’ve got more than 726,000 fewer payroll jobs than they did in November 2001, some 2.3 million more people surveyed for CPS have managed to find work of some sort.”

 

[ray b]

and the numbers of people in poverty
and workers WITHOUT HEALTH INSURANCE are both UP
as per studys printed in my local newspaper in the last few days

sure job numbers are up as many people are working two or more jobs
just to keep there debts down
many can only find part-time work
or jobs paying LESS then a few years ago
the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer
and the former middle class is shrinking
your boy BuSh2 has been a disaster for the working classes

 

[hypatia]

Michigan's jobless rate, which at 7 percent tops the nation, and is expected to go higher next year. We also have a large group of working poor, the working uninsured, with many living from paycheck to paycheck.
I can't begin to compare us to the national average, I don't foresee a rise in any jobs market here.

 

[Pengwuino]

Those were some nice talking points off a democrat blog/democrat handbook ray_b. How bout some real information to back up your (false) facts? Didn't we already discuss how % are the only thing that matters. Hell I might as well say over 200 million people have health insurance, big woop, look at the percentages. Average wages are up. No data to say people are taking on two jobs has ever been brought up. Rest of course, no data, just rhetoric.

Its funny how this forum can have such long winded discussions to disprove all this crap yet people will still come in and run off the talking points like clockwork.

 

[Manchot]

Pengwuino, for one who complains about not backing up opinions with data, you certainly like to do it a lot. Actually, employer health insurance rates have been dropping like a rock for years. You don't notice because Medicaid and Medicare have been picking up the slack, and causing the percentage of uninsured to only increase http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/income_wealth/005647.html I especially like the productivity/adjusted income graph. A 15% increase in productivity has corresponded with a 4% drop in income. Does that make sense to you? Why don't you take a look at the other graph? I guess it shows kick-down, er, I mean trickle-down, economics in action.

 

[Pengwuino]

There have been like 20 threads on this. Go take al ook.

And why does one of your links contradict the other?

Real median household income remained unchanged between 2003 and 2004 at $44,389, according to a report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The percentage of the nation’s population without health insurance coverage remained stable, at 15.7 percent in 2004.

 

[Manchot]

There have been like 20 threads on this. Go take al ook.

And why does one of your links contradict the other?

First sentence: off topic. Disregarded.
Second sentence: They don't contradict, as you can clearly see in the following two quotes:

The 2004 level of median household income—$44,389—was slightly below the 2003 level, but the change was not statistically significant.

Real median household income remained unchanged between 2003 and 2004 at $44,389, according to a report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Also, I noticed that you neglected to quote the whole insurance block of the census press release. Perhaps you were trying to hide the fact that though the number of uninsured hasn't changed, employer-based coverage has dropped as Medicaid/care has risen, as I reported?

* The percentage of the nation’s population without health insurance coverage remained unchanged, at 15.7 percent in 2004.

* The percentage of people covered by employment-based health insurance declined from 60.4 percent in 2003 to 59.8 percent in 2004.

* The percentage of people covered by government health insurance programs rose in 2004, from 26.6 percent to 27.2 percent, driven by increases in the percentage of people with Medicaid coverage, from 12.4 percent in 2003 to 12.9 percent in 2004.

* The proportion and number of uninsured children did not change in 2004, remaining at 11.2 percent or 8.3 million.

 

[Pengwuino]

Neglected to quote the whoel insurance block? Why not just ask why I didnt quote the entire income by region block or earnings by industry? I'm not here to quote things I am not questioning.

I can see the various declines/increases. What are the figures for 02 and 01?

 

[SOS2008]

Those were some nice talking points off a democrat blog/democrat handbook ray_b. How bout some real information to back up your (false) facts? Didn't we already discuss how % are the only thing that matters. Hell I might as well say over 200 million people have health insurance, big woop, look at the percentages. Average wages are up. No data to say people are taking on two jobs has ever been brought up. Rest of course, no data, just rhetoric.

Its funny how this forum can have such long winded discussions to disprove all this crap yet people will still come in and run off the talking points like clockwork.

Since you are not employed, and supposedly a student (who is learning what I cannot see), may I ask what the heck do you know, and where in the heck is the evidence for your claims, the evidence that is always lacking!

 

[Art]

Didn't we already discuss how % are the only thing that matters.

Actually you said % is the only thing that matters. Most would disagree. If you took a flight from California to London and landed .001% short of your targeted destination it may not sound a lot but it sure would spoil your holiday. As you can see sometimes absolutes are far more relevant than percentages.

 

[Skyhunter]

Neglected to quote the whoel insurance block? Why not just ask why I didnt quote the entire income by region block or earnings by industry? I'm not here to quote things I am not questioning.

I can see the various declines/increases. What are the figures for 02 and 01?

"There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics."

Obviously you are picking data that supports your conclusions and ignoring facts that dispute it. Not very scientific.

Hmm that sounds familiar...who else recently did this?

Oh, now I remember "Don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud!."

 

[Manchot]

Neglected to quote the whoel insurance block? Why not just ask why I didnt quote the entire income by region block or earnings by industry? I'm not here to quote things I am not questioning.

Oh, so you're not questioning the fact that though actual insurance rates are stable, employer insurance rates are dropping? Good. So, do you think that it is good that more people have to rely on Medicare/caid, or bad? Please explain.

I can see the various declines/increases. What are the figures for 02 and 01?

Between 2000 and 2001, real median income decreased 2.2% (page 7). Between 2001 and 2002, it dropped by http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/income_wealth/001371.html . Both of these figures are reflected in the aforementioned graph. So, are you going to make a point? While you're at it, can you address the fact that though productivity has increased by a significant margin, median income has decreased? One would think that they'd be related pretty linearly, unless one group of people managed to keep the fruits of the productivity increase.

 

[edward]

Just a little more... We discussed the labor force growth discrepancy before, and http://immigration.about.com/cs/economicslabor/a/laborforcegrowt_2.htm is some information that says the discrepancy may be explained by fact that the number of people working under contract, off the books, or self-employed is growing.

From the same link:

By extension, between 2000 and 2003, Sum and Harrington found that new immigrants contributed more than half of the growth in the nation’s labor force thus exceeding their contribution in the decade of the 1990s which was a historical high in the US.

(emphasis mine)

What I am having a problem with is stated above. A majority of recently created jobs are going to aliens who are working in the underground economy.
Those who are employed at: under contract, off the books, self employed jobs, are living for the most part at or below the poverty level.

Of course there are jobs being created, but it is a revovling door of jobs. Just down the street from my house I noticed a sign on a telephone pole. It was posted there by a man offering to do yard work.
When I checked into it, that man offering to do yard work was a man who had lost his job 6 months ago when IBM downsized a local facility.

Sure, he technically has a job. But his situation is all to common, not the exception. I do not see where jobs of that nature can ever be construed as a "healthy" economy.

To use an old axiom: This country is only as strong as it's weakest link, and it appears that the weakest link is our work force. Underground and off the books jobs have replaced a strong, skilled, productive work force.

This, to me is a great threat to national security which seems to go unseen.

 

[loseyourname]

What I am having a problem with is stated above. A majority of recently created jobs are going to aliens who are working in the underground economy.

Woa, there, edward. What you quote only said immigrants, it didn't say anything about illegal immigrants. Unless you're referring to something from another part of the site that you didn't quote, aren't you being a little xenophobic?

 

[Manchot]

Regardless of edward's alleged xenophobia (which is irrelevant and off-topic), the point he makes still stands: a lot of the jobs created have been "revolving door" jobs, with high turnover rates. Between 2003 and 2004, the average turnover rate increased by 1%. (Figures run from September to August, so Sept. 2004 - August 2005 figures are not yet available.) Keep in mind that this is all voluntary turnover, giving a very clear indication that the job market is less desirable than it used to be.

 

[Manchot]

Actually, I was wrong about that last statistic. It shows that the percentage of the job market which changed jobs increased by 1%. In fact, if you do the math, you'll find that the average voluntary turnover rate increased by 5.2%. I'd say that that's extremely significant, wouldn't the rest of you?

 

[edward]

Woa, there, edward. What you quote only said immigrants, it didn't say anything about illegal immigrants. Unless you're referring to something from another part of the site that you didn't quote, aren't you being a little xenophobic?

Actually at this point I am more than a little xenophobic

But they are a fairly large part of the economy and their employment status must be included in the overall picture.

 

[loseyourname]

Actually at this point I am more than a little xenophobic

But they are a fairly large part of the economy and their employment status must be included in the overall picture.

Okay, but do you see what I was asking? The part of the article you quoted said that new immigrants accounted for a large portion of the newly created jobs. You then went on to say that you have a problem with this, but then said that aliens were receiving underground jobs. That wasn't what the article said, at least not the part you quoted. The part you quoted was talking about legal immigrants, and I would guess that they must have payroll jobs, given that they are being included in the statistics. I just want to know if you unintentionally misread the article or if you're referring to something else in it that you didn't quote.

 

[loseyourname]

Regardless of edward's alleged xenophobia (which is irrelevant and off-topic), the point he makes still stands: a lot of the jobs created have been "revolving door" jobs, with high turnover rates. Between 2003 and 2004, the average turnover rate increased by 1%. (Figures run from September to August, so Sept. 2004 - August 2005 figures are not yet available.) Keep in mind that this is all voluntary turnover, giving a very clear indication that the job market is less desirable than it used to be.

It's hard to see how that's an entirely negative thing. Having at least some sector of the job market consist of jobs with very high turnover rates provides a cushion for people that become temporarily unemployed, as it ensures that there will always be jobs available as people quit. I'd rather wait tables at the local restaurant while I look for a new job than rely on unemployment benefits.

 

[Manchot]

You've hit on what I was getting at. The point is that people who are overqualified for these jobs are working in them temporarily rather than being unemployed. Therefore, the unemployment rate is becoming less and less of a good indicator of the economy. The fact that it is at 5% pretty much means nothing if fewer people are working at jobs that they are qualified for. If you assume that the increase in turnover roughly corresponds with the number of people who were underemployed, then that would mean that the "effective" unemployment is at least 6%. Of course, that only considers one year. If you go back a few more, I'm sure you'll find that the effective unemployment is higher.

On a side note, if you have a M.S. in engineering, and you're forced to work at McDonald's, would you consider that to be better or worse than receiving unemployment benefits? If you don't get a temp job, you can at least focus on getting a (real) job. I agree with you that it's not entirely negative, but it's still pretty bad.

 

[SOS2008]

Currently I'm watching a program on PBS (Wide Angle) about out-sourcing of American jobs, with focus on India. In review of a call center company, even though employees may be asked to work 80 hour weeks, people are leaving their current jobs as doctors, food scientists, etc. to make more money serving American clients in this way. So it is not necessarily creating jobs for the unemployed there--but rather attracting people away from other professions--and we are talking about doctors, etc. It has created such a boom that people walk around with three job offers in their hands.

Meanwhile, what is going on in the American job market? In summary, it is pointed out the we should out-source certain production and services. But some jobs should be kept here. The problem is differentiation is not being made by the multinationals--they aren't concerned with this. Should we leave things to the natural movements of the market (capitalism)?

Edit: Here is a link to the transcripts: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/shows/india2/transcript.html

 

[loseyourname]

You've hit on what I was getting at. The point is that people who are overqualified for these jobs are working in them temporarily rather than being unemployed. Therefore, the unemployment rate is becoming less and less of a good indicator of the economy.

Honestly, the only indicator I've ever really put much stock in is GDP per capita. Although you cannot use it to make forecasts as you can with other indicators, it's the only number that's really going to give you any kind of holistic feel for how the economy as a whole is doing. Granted, it leaves open the possibility that a small number of people are doing wonderfully while the rest struggle, but you did only say an indicator of the economy itself, which doesn't necessarily require universal prosperity to do well. That's a bit of a separate matter, part of which is addressed below. Just to note the significance of the stat, though, being employed in any capacity is always better than not being employed, unless you're independently wealthy and don't need to work.

On a side note, if you have a M.S. in engineering, and you're forced to work at McDonald's, would you consider that to be better or worse than receiving unemployment benefits? If you don't get a temp job, you can at least focus on getting a (real) job. I agree with you that it's not entirely negative, but it's still pretty bad.

I hadn't seen this before. Sorry about that, but I'll respond. I think we're getting into a bit of ambiguity here. When I say that I don't see "this" as a bad thing, the pronoun "this" is standing in for high-turnover jobs. As I said, having these jobs out there is a good thing because it ensures that there will always be a cushion of some sort. I'm not really referring to McDonald's, either, which, let's face it, is about the lowest of the low you can get in terms of employment. There are, however, plenty of people waiting tables at busier and more expensive places that are pulling in over 50K a year. Heck, my girlfriend's brother pulls in several hundred each weekend working only ten hours as a busser; he isn't even a server. And bartenders make even more than the servers do. Obviously, these are "best-case scenario" interim-type jobs, but there are also temp agencies that can place you in offices, usually starting at around $12/hour or so, which isn't bad and will usually get you more than unemployment would have. That won't necessarily be the case if you were an engineer making big bucks, but how many people are engineers making big bucks? Frankly, if you're that prosperous to begin with, you should have enough saved up to buffer again a bout of temporary unemployment, without having to resort to either waiting tables or collecting unemployment. I'm more concerned about people who lose their jobs and don't have any kind of significant savings to fall back on while they search for another job. It's a good thing for these people that there are these high-turnover, "buffer" jobs available to ease the interim period for them. Granted, these opportunities exist more in heavily populated areas, but at least they are there. It's better than if they were not.

 

[Astronuc]

Unemployment is likely to go up as http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050915/ap_on_bi_ge/airlines_bankruptcy_14 today! They maybe laying off more people, cutting flights, selling aircraft (which Delta has done - unloading their 767's). Pilots have already given about $1 billion in salary/benefit reductions.

Also, in question are the pensions of the airline employees - not the managers though - just the rank and file employees. The government may be forced to cover it. More debt/deficits.

Delta Air Lines Inc. and Northwest Airlines Corp., hobbled by soaring fuel costs and heavy debt and pension obligations, filed for bankruptcy protection Wednesday, becoming the third and fourth major carriers to enter Chapter 11 since the 2001 terrorist attacks.

The dual filings in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York bring into focus the magnitude of the plight of the nation's big airlines, which have lost more than $30 billion in four years even as they slashed thousands of jobs and raised questions about the viability of their employee pension plans.

A spike in fuel prices after Hurricane Katrina was the final blow for both. By joining the parents of United Airlines and US Airways in bankruptcy, the four major carriers represent more than 40 percent of all available seat miles in the U.S., according to analysts. "We are reading the first page in a thriller that will end either in resurrection or the death and burial of an entire industry as we know it today," said William Rochelle, an airline bankruptcy lawyer in New York.

Delta said it plans to reduce its fleet size and Chief Executive Gerald Grinstein said its likely more job cuts will be needed on top of the 24,000 job cuts the Atlanta-based carrier has announced since 2001. "There is no painless way out of this and there will be reduction of personnel," Grinstein, who took over Delta in January 2004, told The Associated Press. He also vowed to stay with the airline through its bankruptcy process.

Delta listed its total debt at $28.3 billion and assets at $21.6 billion. The asset figure makes Delta's bankruptcy the ninth-largest in U.S. history, according to bankruptcy tracker New Generation Research Inc. Northwest listed assets of $14.35 billion.

By filing for Chapter 11 now, Northwest and Delta beat an Oct. 17 deadline, when the bankruptcy laws become more restrictive and makes it harder for companies to cancel their debts.

The new bankruptcy laws also will make it harder to pay bonuses to managers to keep them at the company, and will generally force companies to either exit bankruptcy or liquidate faster.

Now watch how management comes out of this. Management usually thinks of itself before creditors, investors and employees.

 

[loseyourname]

Also, in question are the pensions of the airline employees - not the managers though - just the rank and file employees. The government may be forced to cover it. More debt/deficits.

That's something I'd be more concerned about. Laid-off pilots and mechanics and such can find work elsewhere, but taking away a man's retirement just isn't right. It pisses me off that you can make a promise to a worker like that; that a man can work for forty years on the understanding that he will be taken care of at the end of it all, only to have that snatched from under his feet.

 

[Skyhunter]

Currently I'm watching a program on PBS (Wide Angle) about out-sourcing of American jobs, with focus on India. Edit: Here is a link to the transcripts: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/shows/india2/transcript.html

Excellent read.

Thanks

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I recently learned that anyone working for Walmart, at least here in Oregon, has to wait two years before being eligible for benefits.

A large, high tech company [LSI] near Portland closed the doors today for a move overseas.

 

[SOS2008]

Excellent read.

Thanks

IMO out-sourcing contributed a great deal to the recession, which we began to really feel the summer before 9-11. What I come away with from the interview is it is one thing to out-source jobs like tele-marketing (I think the company reviewed in the program was selling mortgage insurance). These kinds of jobs provide economic growth for countries like India without hurting American workers, which works out well for both countries. It is another thing to out-source high paying work, like software consulting, architectural design, etc. -- the kind of jobs going oversees by 2000.

Of course there are many problems that need to be addressed, first and foremost education. For example, the students at MIT are largely foreign. And so forth...the transcripts are hard to read, but hit the nail on the head.

 

[loseyourname]

IMO out-sourcing contributed a great deal to the recession, which we began to really feel the summer before 9-11. . . . It is another thing to out-source high paying work, like software consulting, architectural design, etc. -- the kind of jobs going oversees by 2000.

I'm not necessarily going to disagree with you (you are, after all, only stating an opinion), but with the tech bubble busting open just before that, the economy was going to recede one way or the other. One reason we had the boom of the 90's in the first place is that venture capitalists and other investors were a little too willing to give big money to businesses without solid long-term business plans, thinking that tech (especially e-commerce) could never slow down. As a result, the wages of many tech workers were artificially inflated. In fact, many of the expenditures of tech companies, period (not just on salaries) were artificially inflated. Instead of operating at a profit, they operated on the assumption that any good idea would eventually become profitable and, until that time, they could spend as much as they wanted to. That situation was simply not tenable, the growth not sustainable. The work didn't necessarily need to go overseas, but salary and other expenditures were going to have to come down one way or another - it's either everyone take a pay cut or new jobs start going to people who are willing to work for less.

Of course there are many problems that need to be addressed, first and foremost education. For example, the students at MIT are largely foreign. And so forth...the transcripts are hard to read, but hit the nail on the head.

That doesn't necessarily matter so long as the students remain in the US after graduation. In fact, even if they don't, attracting the best and brightest students from around the world has always been a large part of the reason out postgraduate institutions have been so highly regarded. Having the best program the school can have works to everyone's benefit.

But you are getting what you want, as Bush's tougher visa policies in the wake of 9/11 have made it far more difficult for foreign students to attend US universities.

 

[SOS2008]

I'm not necessarily going to disagree with you (you are, after all, only stating an opinion), but with the tech bubble busting open just before that, the economy was going to recede one way or the other.

Many feel out-sourcing, poor trade agreements, illegal labor, etc. has contributed to flat and decreasing wages in the U.S., which in turn affects savings and even spending, which in turn affects the economy. But yes, the dot.coms, then Y2K has had an affect as well. (The highlighted portion is discussed in the transcripts.)

But you are getting what you want, as Bush's tougher visa policies in the wake of 9/11 have made it far more difficult for foreign students to attend US universities.

Per the transcripts, what is being advocated is ways to make Americans (including immigrants) more competitive in the global market. At this time we are not, and the job market in the U.S. will be affected.

 

[Astronuc]

ATLANTA (Sept. 22) - Delta Air Lines Inc. said Thursday it will cut up to 9,000 jobs, or 17 percent of the work force at its flagship service, and reduce pay and make changes to its route network to focus more on international flying as it moves swiftly to restructure its costs in bankruptcy.

The changes are part of the nation's third biggest carrier's effort to save an additional $3 billion annually by the end of 2007. That's on top of $5 billion Delta had previously said it wanted to save by the end of 2006.

The company's chief executive, Gerald Grinstein, will take a 25 percent pay cut and all other executives will take a 15 percent pay cut.

We still have to hear from Northwest Airlines regariding their plans for job cuts and salary/wage reductions, and perhaps reduction or loss of pensions.

 

[loseyourname]

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

This is the thorough employment report with all relevant payroll and household survey statistics that are collected by the BLS. All in all, things do seem to be trending up. Aside from the raw employment numbers, the average hourly wage for non-supervisory workers stands at $16.16, up 2.7% from the beginning of the year. The people taking the brunt of unemployment are teenagers (16.5%) and African-Americans (9.6%).

Note: This is the report for August, so it is pre-Katrina/Rita. This month's report will probably be available in another week or so.

 

[Astronuc]

General Motors Corporation outlined a restructuring plan this morning that will cut about 30,000 jobs, affecting six assembly plants, as it struggles with billions of dollars in losses.

G.M. to Cut 30,000 Jobs and Close 12 Facilities in 3 Years - NY Times, Nov 21, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/21/business/21cnd-gm.html?dlbk (registration required, free for 7 days).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afc9jt_mcRDU&refer=us
GM's Wagoner to Announce Plant Closings, People Say (Update3)

Ford is also looking at reducing management, engineering and labor.

The airlines are asking for large cutbacks from employees.

Not good signs for a robust economy.

 

[edward]

Ford to cut 4,000 workers in 2006 in addition to 2,700 already in the process.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2005511190321

Ford Motor Co. will cut about 10%, or 4,000, of its white-collar jobs in North America next year, mostly through involuntary layoffs, as part of a sweeping cost-cutting plan to be unveiled in January, the company told workers in an e-mail sent Friday.

The planned cutbacks are the latest blow to Michigan's already suffering economy and deal another setback to an auto industry still reeling from the October bankruptcy of Delphi Corp., the state's fourth-largest company, and massive losses at General Motors Corp.

The job cuts, which will include salaried and contract employees as well as workers hired from employment firms, are the latest move by Ford to head off the financial crisis that has battered GM. They are in addition to a plan to cut 2,750 white-collar jobs this year in North America

 

[edward]

People are scrambling to find work.

A sign on a telephone pole near Costco: Web site design call *** ****

Another a mile away: Christmas lights hung call *** ****

My nepherw in Indiana who had worked in CAM for the last fifteen years, has now been looking for comparable work for the last four months.

 

[SOS2008]

The airline industry has always fluctuated, and has never completely recovered from 9-11. Manufacturing in general has been going oversees for a long time now, and automotive manufacturing in particular has taken a hit ever since Japanese imports flooded the U.S. market. We can't compete in cheap yet quality manufactured products, but should worry that we are losing jobs in high-end products/services.

I don’t agree with McCain on much, but I do agree with him that we should have been working on alternative energy technology, not just for our purposes but also to export.

 

[edward]

Northwest airlines is no saying that it is going to outsource flight attendant jobs.

 

[Astronuc]

. . . but I do agree with him that we should have been working on alternative energy technology, not just for our purposes but also to export.

Funny you should say that. I was talking with a former class mate whose company has developed solar power technology, and there is interest overseas in Spain, Australia, Sout America, Asia and the Middle East. There is also one project in the US.

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy01osti/28751.pdf

The technology is ready to go - they just need some buyers.

 

[SOS2008]

Northwest airlines is no saying that it is going to outsource flight attendant jobs.

We can't even hold on to the service industry--though I'll assume Americans will continue to be employed for domestic flights?

Funny you should say that. I was talking with a former class mate whose company has developed solar power technology, and there is interest overseas in Spain, Australia, Sout America, Asia and the Middle East. There is also one project in the US.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy01osti/28751.pdf
The technology is ready to go - they just need some buyers.

The key is cost of new energy in comparison to existing energy. I don't know if economy of scale (mass production) can be used to achieve this with various forms of alternative energy - ?

Regarding solar, it's been my understanding it takes about 10 years to recoup upfront investment, and then there is still significant maintenance costs. Our society is so mobile; it seems more realistic for commercial versus residential structures. Other technology seems to be geared to new construction only, and/or there's not enough ways for people to switch to alternatives easily and cost effectively.

At the minimum, builders should have incentives for installing this kind of technology going forward, and producers to export to places that have been booming, like the Hong Kongs of the world.

Fuel-efficient automobiles are the main area we should invest in. As I stated in another thread, I wish there had been an Apollo type program for this years ago. The first thing we need to do is get rid of self-serving oilmen in our government and replace them with leaders who believe in scientific advancement.

 

[SOS2008]

From CNN broadcast news (11/21/05):

Well, as GM workers face massive layoffs, a disturbing new report illustrates the war on the middle class. A new study says the living standards of middle class workers in Illinois fell by such a dramatic rate that their financial condition is no better today than it was in 1989.

Lisa Sylvester reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Joe Bresnahan and his family are learning how to stretch a dollar. He worked for Maytag in Galesburg, Illinois, for 16 years, but the plant closed. His job shipped to Mexico, where the workers are paid in cents, not dollars.

JOE BRESNAHAN, FMR. MAYTAG WORKER: I'm not going to work for 58 cents an hour. There's no way that we can compete. It's got to stop. The gap -- there is no more middle class in my mind. You're either rich or you're poor. …I bring home every two weeks what I used to bring home in a week, and used to have good health insurance, dental, vision. And none of that now.

SYLVESTER: His story is being repeated all over Illinois. The state has lost more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs since 1990. Middle class families haven't just stalled on the economic ladder, they're being kicked further down.

A new study by the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability shows the state's median income of $46,000 is at the same level as it was in 1989. During the '90s, when the economy was booming, the job growth was in the lower paid service industry, and many high-paying jobs were shipped overseas.

RALPH MARTIRE, CTR. FOR TAX & BUDGET ACCOUNTABILITY: We are truly feeling the impact of globalization, and it's not like the old days where maybe one high-paying wage sector would go away in the economy and another high-paying wage sector would jump up to replace it. That's not what's really happening now.

SYLVESTER: What's happening in Illinois is also occurring in the rest of the country.

LEE PRICE, ECONOMIC POLICY INSTITUTE: Illinois a little bit more than the rest of the country. But the country as a whole, the typical family in the middle of the income spectrum is doing worse than they were five years ago.

SYLVESTER: That's because middle class families like Joe's Bresnahan's have not only seen their paycheck shrink, they're also coping with rising costs of gas, housing and food.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0511/21/ldt.01.html

 

[Astronuc]

Regarding solar, it's been my understanding it takes about 10 years to recoup upfront investment, and then there is still significant maintenance costs. Our society is so mobile; it seems more realistic for commercial versus residential structures. Other technology seems to be geared to new construction only, and/or there's not enough ways for people to switch to alternatives easily and cost effectively.
At the minimum, builders should have incentives for installing this kind of technology going forward, and producers to export to places that have been booming, like the Hong Kongs of the world.
Fuel-efficient automobiles are the main area we should invest in. As I stated in another thread, I wish there had been an Apollo type program for this years ago. The first thing we need to do is get rid of self-serving oilmen in our government and replace them with leaders who believe in scientific advancement.

Any new technology comes with cost in order to cover the R&D investment and possibly new investment in equipment and facilities used to construct the components.

I just talked with my former classmate, and he mentioned a study by the A&E firm, Sargent & Lundy which indicates economically competitive solar power systems are possible. According to my friend, initial costs might be $0.18/kWh, while after several plants, it might be more like $0.05-0.06 kWh - and there is no fuel volatility. S. California and Arizona are viable markets.

Initial plants might come in at $3000 /MWe installed, but with technological improvements and economies of scale both in manufacture and operational, the price should come down. If one considers the levelized cost, then the prices are competitive with fossil energy.

 

[Skyhunter]

Any new technology comes with cost in order to cover the R&D investment and possibly new investment in equipment and facilities used to construct the components.
I just talked with my former classmate, and he mentioned a study by the A&E firm, Sargent & Lundy which indicates economically competitive solar power systems are possible. According to my friend, initial costs might be $0.18/kWh, while after several plants, it might be more like $0.05-0.06 kWh - and there is no fuel volatility. S. California and Arizona are viable markets.
Initial plants might come in at $3000 /MWe installed, but with technological improvements and economies of scale both in manufacture and operational, the price should come down. If one considers the levelized cost, then the prices are competitive with fossil energy.

Unfortunately when doing cost analysis, the environmental cost of pollution is not factored in. If Energy producers had to pay for just the health problems caused by air pollution, solar would become more competitive.

 

[Astronuc]

Now for an interesting twist -

It's a tough job...

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2005/11/22/PM200511227.html

... and there's no one to do it. Wanted: Skilled workers. According to a study released today, the US economy has serious labor shortages in some fields. Sarah Gardner reports.

From the National Association of Manufacturers.

Developing ‘Human Capital’ Must Be Priority

WASHINGTON, D.C., Nov. 22, 2005 – The serious shortage of qualified employees that a vast majority of U.S. manufacturers are now experiencing is taking an increasingly negative toll on America’s ability to compete in the global economy, according to a survey report released today by the National Association of Manufacturers, the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte Consulting LLP.

“The survey exposes a widening gap between the dwindling supply of skilled workers in America and the growing technical demands of the modern manufacturing workplace,” explained NAM President John Engler. “It is essential that America close this skills gap if we are to maintain our edge in the global marketplace and remain the world’s leader in innovation.

“Clearly, the broadening skills gap in America calls for urgent action by both public and private stakeholders,” Engler said. “A highly skilled, innovative ‘high performance’ workforce is essential for our manufacturing sector to remain vibrant and to compete successfully in a global economy. If manufacturers are to remain competitive, the issues of education and training reform must be given at least as much attention as other top business concerns like trade, taxes, energy and regulatory reform.”

http://www.nam.org/s_nam/doc1.asp?CID=67&DID=235732

But earlier this month - "Natural Gas Prices Causing Layoffs and Shutdowns in U.S. Manufacturing Sector"

Outer Continental Shelf Oil & Gas Development is Priority for Manufacturers, Economy

WASHINGTON, November 17, 2005—High natural gas prices are beginning to cause significant job losses, salary freezes and lost market share for U.S. manufacturers, according to the results of a national survey released today by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).

Nearly 45 percent of those surveyed said they will be forced to lay off workers or impose wage freezes or reductions. About 22 percent of respondents said their companies would cut health care or benefits in an attempt to keep up with energy costs.

“This is a crisis. It’s the worst I’ve seen since we started this company 45 years ago,” said Virginia Ferrell, President of Capital Engineering and Manufacturing Co., with 85 employees in Chicago. “I don’t think people recognize that this shortage of energy is new to the United States. It’s a seismic market disruption. Meanwhile, our competitors are increasing their energy supplies.”

Ferrell said her company would impose job cuts, wage freezes, benefit cuts, and move to a four-day work week to survive energy costs that have doubled. “This is serious enough to put us out of business,” she said.

About two-thirds of respondents said natural gas is their primary energy source. About 15 percent cited oil, and three percent cited coal.

http://www.nam.org/s_nam/doc1.asp?CID=67&DID=235711

 

[pattylou]

Merck will cut 7000 jobs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/28/b...&en=189c7163839ea019&ei=5094&partner=homepage

 

[edward]

The pharaceutical industry is also heavily involved in outsourcing.

http://www.bionity.com/articles/e/49803/

Even biotec and R&D are being outsourced primarily to India and China.

http://www.canbiotech.com/

 

[Astronuc]

Actually, an appropriate title for the this thread would be "what is the state of the US economy".

In another thread, I pointed out that the number for non-farm employment in the first quarter of 2006 were barely above the number when GW first took office in 2000. And in most cases, the wages/salaries of those millions of jobs are considerably less than the jobs replaced. In addition, there are many people who hold more than one job, and there are many more temporary or contract workers, who receive minimal benefits, e.g. health insurance and pension/retirement.

Now look at - FYI: An Update on Emerging Issues in Banking
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2006/032306fyi.html

More people are living on the edge - one lost job or one major illness from falling into poverty or bankruptcy.

And what about bankruptcy reform. Well, it doesn't really apply to those who earn less than the median income in a particular area - and those are the people most likely to file bankruptcy.

Energy prices have increased and probably will not decrease for some time.

The Bush administration has committed the US to a costly war in Iraq and Afghanistan (~ $100 billion/yr), Federal deficits/debt have grown, the trade deficit has contined to increase, and interest rates have increased and the Fed (Bank) will likely continue to raise interest rates to suppress inflation.

On the last point, I think there comes a time when rising interest rates actually exacerbates (contributes) to inflation.

Hmmm - get ready for the 'perfect storm' economically speaking.

Have a nice day.

 

[russ_watters]

Actually, an appropriate title for the this thread would be "what is the state of the US economy".

No, when I started this thread, there were a lot of side-conversations going on about the economy and people injected little insinuations into them about the job market being bad. So I wanted to concentrate the thread on that issue alone.

Similar to the liberal mantra of 'the rich get richer while the poor get poorer' (debunked in other threads), a lot of people hold beliefs about the economy that are factually wrong because they support their political positions. I was just pointing this one out. And though this thread has gotten little injections of context-less negative news, claims of a poor job market seem to have decreased in P&WA.

 

[russ_watters]

On topic...

In another thread, I pointed out that the number for non-farm employment in the first quarter of 2006 were barely above the number when GW first took office in 2000.

I missed it, so if you could indulge me with the data and what you conclude from it (or just link the other thread)?

 

[Art]

No, when I started this thread, there were a lot of side-conversations going on about the economy and people injected little insinuations into them about the job market being bad. So I wanted to concentrate the thread on that issue alone.

Similar to the liberal mantra of 'the rich get richer while the poor get poorer' (debunked in other threads), a lot of people hold beliefs about the economy that are factually wrong because they support their political positions. I was just pointing this one out. And though this thread has gotten little injections of context-less negative news, claims of a poor job market seem to have decreased in P&WA.

Debunked in your opinion only. Perhaps you should correct the CIA on their error then or is this an example of the the Bush doctrine, that if you state a mistruth often enough it becomes true.

The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html#Econ

 

[Gokul43201]

Similar to the liberal mantra of 'the rich get richer while the poor get poorer' (debunked in other threads),

I find one thread where you claim to have debunked it. But I can't say I agree with your reasoning. As often is the case, I think we're using different definitions of rich and poor.

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=315942&highlight=income#post315942

The poorest 20% of the households had a greater fraction of the total US household income in the 70's than they do now. I'm not arguing that the bottom 20% of households represents the bottom 20% of the population. Let it represent the bottom 10%. So long as the average size of these households hasn't changed significantly, it doesn't change the argument.

Then there is the definition of richness or poorness. Should poverty be based on a percentage of the average US salary or on prices of commodities ? If it is the former, then the above statistic shows that the poor now earn a smaller fraction of the median income, and have hence, gotten poorer. If you go by the latter, the relevant data is the poverty rate, which has been rising since it hit a minimum in 2000, but the trend over the last 25 years is pretty flat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States

PS : Don't img tags work in P&WA ?