News What is the Impact of Martial Law on Pakistan's Upcoming Elections?

[edward]

This doesn't look good. I wonder if this has anything to do with the return of Bhutto to the country?

US threatens to withhold aid as Pakistan swings from democracy to dictatorship

Elections due to take place in Pakistan in a matter of weeks could be postponed by a year, the government has announced, and it said 500 people had been detained at gunpoint after General Pervez Musharraf suspended the country's constitution and imposed martial law.

Dozens of other political opponents were on the run – among them the former cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan – and human rights activists were rounded up as the authorities sought pre-emptively to stamp out opposition to General Musharraf's move to sack and arrest seven Supreme Court judges and invoke a state of emergency. The judges, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, were under house arrest while television channels remained off the air.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article3129652.ece

 

[Art]

The supreme court judges had been in session to decide if Musharraf's victory in the recent presidential election was legal. As head of the military he was disbarred by the constitution from standing for office. In anticipation of a ruling against him Musharraf declared this emergency and the suspension of the constitution.

 

[BobG]

Everything about Pakistan and Musharaf has been problematic. Pakistan would have seemed the most likely country to invaded after Afghanistan - mainly because that was the most likely place for al-Qaeda to retreat to.

Musharaf headed that off by being one of the first to ally itself with the US in the "war against terror". His help hasn't been all that great. For one thing, Musharaf isn't a popular leader and has to worry about being assassinated, let alone being removed from office.

An even bigger problem is that the Pakistani government doesn't have much control over the region bordering Afghanistan. The US has poured around $7 billion dollars of military aid into Pakistan with the intent that Musharaf could strengthen his military control of the border region. Unfortunately, Musharaf has had other priorities and most of the aid has gone towards purchasing things such as harpoon missiles (anti-ship weapons), F-16s, maritime surveillance aircraft, and heavy artillery. Even when purchasing things that could help counter insurgent forces in mountainous terrain, a bit goes to the border forces in a presentation attended by the press while the majority goes to the Pakistani regular army that defends the border between Pakistan and India. (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-uspakistan5nov05,1,7007026.story?track=rss )

All in all, Musharaf has played the post-9/11 environment more skillfully than just about any other country in the region. I think edward is right about Bhutto's return (pushed by Secretary Rice in an effort to separate military/civilian rule of the country) is the reason for the current problems, and it's certainly possible Musharaf let things drift beyond his control. Even good players make fatal mistakes when they occupy the type of spot Pakistan occupies in the region.

Still, I imagine he'll wind up surviving and continue pursuing his own agendas as long as the US has no other options.