nates said:
without starting a new thread, is LQG and ST/M Theory still the front runners these days? has one moved past the other?
That's a research trends
statistics question. Changing research fashions, job demographics, citation standings etc have only indirect bearing on the ultimate validity of math models. But they can give at least a partial picture. Here for example:
Loop and String research trends as of 6 December:
http://howlonguntil.net/ 339/365 of year elapsed
LOOP RESEARCH BY YEAR (loop quantum gravity, loop quantum cosmology, spin foam)
2005
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (42 found)
2006
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (77 found)
2007
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (120 found)
2008
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (142 found)
2009
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (145 found)
2010
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (152 found)
2011
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (201 annualized from 187 found)
STRING,MEMBRANE,AdS/CFT RESEARCH BY YEAR
(search terms "string model", "membrane model" and "AdS/CFT correspondence")
2005
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (988 found)
2006
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1029 found)
2007
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1050 found)
2008
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1128 found)
2009
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1132 found)
2010
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1046 found)
2011
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (946 annualized from 879 found)
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You probably see how the annualized figure is gotten. 339/365 of the year has elapsed and so far 187 research papers were posted, so if that rate continues for the rest of the year one would have 187*365/339 = 201 papers.
The searches are imperfect, so the absolute numbers probably matter less than whatever change or non-change one sees by repeating the same identical search for each consecutive year.
People's
subjective judgments differ as to the ultimate prospects of different lines of research leading to testable predictions of new phenomena, and ultimately to a successful new vision of nature, explaining the big bang etc.
It ordinarily doesn't mean much just to hear people make authoritative-sounding pronouncements about what they think "most physicists" think. You can listen to a certain amount of that but I also believe in watching actual behavior. Departments are hiring fewer string theorists these days (than say 5 years ago) and there is a noticeable shift of people out of research on stringy unification into other areas---some into areas with no clear connection to string at all.
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I think it's important to realize that string research and LQG are
not rivals in any direct sense. They are very different paths to the physics of the future. And they are far from the only paths being explored!
LQG research traditionally aims to re-envision geometry, to successfully demonstrate a quantum theory of spacetime geometry, and then to invite the matter fields to come and live in that new version of space and time.
It is far less concerned with explaining the matter fields of the current standard model---as if thinking "first let's get the world's uncertain changing geometry right."
By contrast, the String program has traditionally been concerned with matter defined on some fixed geometry. You could say that in some respects it is far more ambitious, because of its wider scope, but also in another respect less ambitious (in the quantum geometry department.)
So it's apples and oranges. There is no clear set rivalry to achieve a unique goal. And there are also important bananas. Other paths being pursued towards the physics of the future.
Loop is one of several programs going after several different goals. It's an interesting one to watch. And the whole scene is interesting, partly because it is so indefinite and unpredictable.
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I've thought of another way to answer your question
Here is a long beautifully written paper by Richard Woodard (a particle theorist who studied under Sidney Coleman at Harvard)
http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.4238
It explains the whole complicated situation discussing SEVERAL approaches in what I think is a calm unbiased way and explaining just why the problems are difficult and what has caused the different programs to veer off in various directions.
It is 105 pages, but it is written in a helpful pedagogical style, so beginners can get something from it even if they just skip around and grab a section or two here and there. If you just understand 20 pages you will have gotten something worthwhile out of it.
He is not betting on this or that pet project. He is trying to help you understand the whole complex enterprise and the obstacles that Nature has set up for us. I'd like to meet the guy. It doesn't get any better, in my opinion. And I say this understanding probably less than half.
Of course it's out of date. 2009. Quite a lot has happened since. That's the breaks. It's like surveying an expanding universe---you can't.