When will mankind have these technologies?

[Oerg]

So when do you think our civilization will have the following technologies or never? Feel free to add to the list (by continuing the numbering for reference)

1. Elimination/Reversal of aging in humans
2. Quantum Computing (successful enough for wide commercial use)
3. Reasonably fast form of intra-galactic travel
4. Reasonably fast form of inter-galactic travel
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI" (as outlined in the first bullet list in the page)
6. Nuclear fusion (again successful enough for wide commercial use)

My guesstimates 1. about a century 2. 30 years 3. a few centuries 4. several centuries 5. a few centuries 6. 50 years

I think 3 and 4 would require a major breakthrough in physics to accomplish though.

 

[nismaratwork]

I'd tend towards:

1.) Never
2.) 50+ years
3.) Not sure what reasonably fast is, but sub-c is it, so nothing is UNreasonable.
4.) NEEEEVER
5.) Your guess works for me, but it could be sooner, in fact I'd guess much sooner.
6.) 75-100 years if it's ever truly adopted.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

1) The first question is hard to answer, reverse ageing? Technically never. Eliminating it as a problem? I'd say within a few centuries. I work in Regenerative Medicine and in that field its generally thought that over the next few decades a toolkit of medicines will be developed that will allow tissues and organs to be regenerated fully. If this field progresses well then eventually ageing will be mitigated by regenerating tissues one at a time to full health.

2) Within this century? There don't seem to be any show stoppers and the technology is coming along quite well

3) I'd say reasonably fast as .5C and above and I'd be inclined to say millennia-never. The energy involved in sending a colony across interstellar space at such speeds could easily annihilate the surface of this world. I am sure the human race will find destructive uses for such technology first.

4) Never. If only because a trip of a few million years would result in the people arriving being a different species to the one that left

5) Not for many generations, we're probably going to get highly adaptive and capable programs over the next century but I don't see us making strong AI until we've reverse-engineered the brain and came up with a viable way of reproducing it.

6) I'd wager that the capability to produce a viable (in both energy and economics) nuclear fusion station will arrive close to 2050. Actually using it though and it becoming widespread? not for decades after

 

[Pattonias]

So when do you think our civilization will have the following technologies or never? Feel free to add to the list (by continuing the numbering for reference)

1. Elimination/Reversal of aging in humans
2. Quantum Computing (successful enough for wide commercial use)
3. Reasonably fast form of intra-galactic travel
4. Reasonably fast form of inter-galactic travel
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI" (as outlined in the first bullet list in the page)
6. Nuclear fusion (again successful enough for wide commercial use)

My guesstimates 1. about a century 2. 30 years 3. a few centuries 4. several centuries 5. a few centuries 6. 50 years

I think 3 and 4 would require a major breakthrough in physics to accomplish though.

1. Never by definition... You will always age, but perhaps you could reduce the affects of age.
2. Quantum Computing - 20 years
3. 50 - 100 years
4. Reasonable is pretty relative, but I'm going to say never.
5. Never, but never say never...Never
6. 20-30 years.

 

[Evo]

So when do you think our civilization will have the following technologies or never? Feel free to add to the list (by continuing the numbering for reference)

1. Elimination/Reversal of aging in humans

The day after I die.

 

[nismaratwork]

The day after I die.

Heh, best answer yet.

 

[DaveC426913]

1. Never by definition... You will always age

It's not about chronological age; it's about biological age. Think regenerating limbs, regrowth of hair, rejuvenation of skin and connective tissue, regenerating neurons, increasing telomere length, reversal of arthritis, etc.

We're not just talking about reducing the effects of age, we're talking about actually reversing the effects of age.

4) Never. If only because a trip of a few million years would result in the people arriving being a different species to the one that left

Only presuming we are stuck with relativity. Wormhole technology would eliminate the problem.

 

[nismaratwork]

It's not about chronological age; it's about biological age. Think regenerating limbs, regrowth of hair, rejuvenation of skin and connective tissue, regenerating neurons, increasing telomere length, reversal of arthritis, etc.

We're not just talking about reducing the effects of age, we're talking about actually reversing the effects of age.


Only presuming we are stuck with relativity. Wormhole technology would eliminate the problem.

That would still be one hell of a one way trip into your relative past.

 

[Pengwuino]

4. Reasonably fast form of inter-galactic travel

200 years to 5000 years. Depending on whos reference frame you're looking at

 

[Pattonias]

200 years to 5000 years. Depending on whos reference frame you're looking at

True, about the same time we develop faster than light travel we will look into time travel. Once we look into time travel we will travel back in time and give humanity faster than light travel earlier to speed things up for us in the future. (Screw Paradoxes)

 

[Andre]

Our civilisation would probably need to master some other issues first, like overcoming herd instinct and related terors, hostilities, witchhunt tendency, etc.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

3. Reasonably fast form of intra-galactic travel.

I hope they get to this one soon cause I got to go real bad.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Our civilisation would probably need to master some other issues first, like overcoming herd instinct and related terors, hostilities, witchhunt tendency, etc.

Why? They got us this far!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The day after I die.

You will still age.

 

[AlephZero]

We're not just talking about reducing the effects of age, we're talking about actually reversing the effects of age.

Yeah, but many people do that already. It's called "second childhood"

Apart from that, there would be the problem of what to actually do with an extended life. Douglas Adams fans may remember Wowbagger the Infinitely Prolonged...

 

[Pengwuino]

Why? They got us this far!

Beat me to it!

 

[DaveC426913]

Yeah, but many people do that already. It's called "second childhood"

They regrow body parts?

Apart from that, there would be the problem of what to actually do with an extended life.

I wonder if ancient proto-man ever sat around on his 25th birthay in the waning years of his life and worried about what his descendants would do if they lived to the eternal age of 40 or even 45. How would they fill the time?

 

[I like Serena]

So when do you think our civilization will have the following technologies or never? Feel free to add to the list (by continuing the numbering for reference)

1. Elimination/Reversal of aging in humans
2. Quantum Computing (successful enough for wide commercial use)
3. Reasonably fast form of intra-galactic travel
4. Reasonably fast form of inter-galactic travel
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI" (as outlined in the first bullet list in the page)
6. Nuclear fusion (again successful enough for wide commercial use)

My guesstimates 1. about a century 2. 30 years 3. a few centuries 4. several centuries 5. a few centuries 6. 50 years

I think 3 and 4 would require a major breakthrough in physics to accomplish though.

I have a few more:
7. Antimatter creation and use as an energy source (succesful enough for wide commercial use)
8. Carbon nanotube technology to create a spacelift
9. Stem-cell technology to cure any disease

 

[Pengwuino]

I wonder if ancient proto-man ever sat around on his 25th birthay in the waning years of his life and worried about what his descendants would do if they lived to the eternal age of 40 or even 45. How would they fill the time?

With an extra 100 years of life, I could go get a 2nd PhD!

 

[rootX]

So when do you think our civilization will have the following technologies or never? Feel free to add to the list (by continuing the numbering for reference)

1. Elimination/Reversal of aging in humans
2. Quantum Computing (successful enough for wide commercial use)
3. Reasonably fast form of intra-galactic travel
4. Reasonably fast form of inter-galactic travel
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI" (as outlined in the first bullet list in the page)
6. Nuclear fusion (again successful enough for wide commercial use)

My guesstimates 1. about a century 2. 30 years 3. a few centuries 4. several centuries 5. a few centuries 6. 50 years

I think 3 and 4 would require a major breakthrough in physics to accomplish though.

I am pretty satisfied with our current technology. Other than #2 and # 6, I don't see others practical enough or achievable in near future.

One of things I am really interested in is:
7. Learning how to live.
We will likely never learn that.

 

[I like Serena]

I wonder if ancient proto-man ever sat around on his 25th birthay in the waning years of his life and worried about what his descendants would do if they lived to the eternal age of 40 or even 45. How would they fill the time?

Actually, proto-man was not in the waning years of his life at 25.
As far as we can tell the life span (as opposed to life expectancy) has not increased all that significantly over the millennia.
However, death at birth and death by starvation have been almost abolished (they tend to have a negative effect on life expectancy ;)).

 

[DaveC426913]

IMO, 2 and 6 are less interesting than the others. They're simply 'features not benefits'. Sort of better ways of what we do now.

It would be interesting to alter the list to concentrate more on advances in the quality of human life.

7. Establish a viable extra-terrestrial human colony.
8. Provide power, clean water and food to the planet's population.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

I have a few more:
7. Antimatter creation and use as an energy source (succesful enough for wide commercial use)
8. Carbon nanotube technology to create a spacelift
9. Stem-cell technology to cure any disease

7. God knows! But it wouldn't be a viable energy source per se because it takes more energy to make a gram of antimatter than you would get for releasing that. It would be a great battery/rocket fuel though.
8. We've had good techniques to make CNTs for a while, the problem is we can only make short ones and don't have the ability to make continuous CNTs to any length. No real idea when we'll crack that problem, decades perhaps? In all honesty it could be tomorrow or it could be 2111
9. Never. Because this question makes no sense, I think you should buy a book on stem cells if you'd like to learn about them. They aren't some elixir of life, the attractiveness of stem cells in medicine is that they are plastic and can differentiate into other cell types which makes for attractive treatments for a variety of diseases but in no way will they cure "any disease". The problem with using stem cells is we lack the ability to control their differentiation. I'd say over the next 100 years the technology will come in dribs and drabs until it's a mature field.

 

[Ken Natton]

8. Provide power, clean water and food to the planet's population.

Yeah, I'm with you on that one DaveC. And perhaps I would add to it 'access to decent health care for the planet's population'

But surely, for this website, the big one has to be:

10. Arrive at a unified theory of everything. The day the physicists can all go home and take up gardening.

 

[nismaratwork]

Yeah, I'm with you on that one DaveC. And perhaps I would add to it 'access to decent health care for the planet's population'

But surely, for this website, the big one has to be:

10. Arrive at a unified theory of everything. The day the physicists can all go home and take up gardening.

Gardening, or mass suicide! I for one, want alwasy to be learning, never "done".

 

[I like Serena]

Gardening, or mass suicide! I for one, want alwasy to be learning, never "done".

I don't think these physicists will be done.
We will mostly get a shift from fundamental research to applied physics.
But I suspect that this unification theory will be complex enough that we will need all the theoretical physicists simply to apply the theory

 

[nismaratwork]

I don't think these physicists will be done.
We will mostly get a shift from fundamental research to applied physics.
But I suspect that this unification theory will be complex enough that we will need all the theoretical physicists simply to apply the theory

Ahhh, now that's more like it!

 

[Pattonias]

I don't think these physicists will be done.
We will mostly get a shift from fundamental research to applied physics.
But I suspect that this unification theory will be complex enough that we will need all the theoretical physicists simply to apply the theory

I was just about to say that. If we found a useful application of the unified theory of everything we would probably start knocking things off this list faster.

 

[Ken Natton]

If we found a useful application of the unified theory of everything we would probably start knocking things off this list faster.

Ah but you see I would say that is engineering not physics, so I still say that you guys could go home and leave it to us lesser mortals. We're ten-a-penny. Of course, this unified theory of everything has proved elusive so far. The garden might have to just do for a while yet...

 

[Pattonias]

Ah but you see I would say that is engineering not physics, so I still say that you guys could go home and leave it to us lesser mortals. We're ten-a-penny. Of course, this unified theory of everything has proved elusive so far. The garden might have to just do for a while yet...

We'll discover that the unified theory of everything will only prove applicable to gardening. Wouldn't that be a interesting turn.

 

[DaveC426913]

The problem with using stem cells is we lack the ability to control their differentiation. I'd say over the next 100 years the technology will come in dribs and drabs until it's a mature field.

Really? You think it will take a century of medicine to get that under control?You know how long a century is in medicine? A century ago, we were still coming to terms with the germ theory of disease. You see stem cell research as being that far ahead of where we are now?

 

[f95toli]

2. Quantum Computing (successful enough for wide commercial use)

"Useful" quantum computers`Perhaps 20-30 years. "Wide commercial use", probably never. QC are simply not useful enough. They excel at a few very specific problems, but unless you are into code-breaking or interested in a few optimization problems a normal computer will be better and faster. So unless someone comes up with an QC algorithm for efficiently doing something very useful (such as solving non-sparse massive systems of equations) it will always be a fringe technology.

 

[I like Serena]

"Useful" quantum computers`Perhaps 20-30 years. "Wide commercial use", probably never. QC are simply not useful enough. They excel at a few very specific problems, but unless you are into code-breaking or interested in a few optimization problems a normal computer will be better and faster. So unless someone comes up with an QC algorithm for efficiently doing something very useful (such as solving non-sparse massive systems of equations) it will always be a fringe technology.

Current computing already has "problems" because of the quantum effects that occur in the microscopic chips. That is, we can't make computer chips much smaller than they already are without compensating.

So I expect future computers to incorporate quantum technology, although they do not necessarily work with qubits.

 

[f95toli]

Modern ICs already use "quantum technologies", Intel&co spend a lot of time and money on trying to use or circumvent various quantum phenomena; a trivial example is tunnelling current which are responsible for a lot of the leakage currents.
However, this has nothing to do with quantum computing, which is conceptually very different from an classical computer (a'la Turing).

The truth is that we are in serious trouble when it comes to raw "computing power"; there are several important algorithms that scale very badly when you increase the number of CPUs (meaning adding more cores etc does not help) and for these Moore's law stopped being "valid" many years ago. Quantum computing is not a solution to this problem.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Really? You think it will take a century of medicine to get that under control?You know how long a century is in medicine? A century ago, we were still coming to terms with the germ theory of disease. You see stem cell research as being that far ahead of where we are now?

Comparison of the past is not indicative of how well we will tackle the problems of the future. By a century I meant that it seems to me that over the next several decades we will get better and better with more medicines/products being developed. I stuck the century on there because I'd expect by 100 years time the field will be highly mature (as antibiotics are now).

By 100 years I'd expect stem cells to be a mostly application based science with research focusing around what novel things we can do with our well established techniques. Getting there will be a slow incremental process though.

 

[cobalt124]

I'm feeling pessimistic today and my ignorance may show:

1.100 years
2. Never
3. 300 years (don't know really)
4. Never
5. 200 years (wild guess but think it's possible)
6. 150 years (if ever)
7. Antimatter creation - centuries
8. Carbon nanotube technology - don't know
9. Stem-cell technology - 100 years
7. Establish a viable extra-terrestrial human colony - 200 years
8. Provide power, clean water and food to the planet's population - now but dependent on Andres first post
access to decent health care for the planet's population - ditto
10. Arrive at a unified theory of everything - Never

 

[DaveC426913]

10. Arrive at a unified theory of everything - Never

Really? You do know that UToE is almost entirely complete?

Note: UToE does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe*, the UToE need do one thing and one thing only: reconcile gravity with the other three fundamental forces (already reconciled.) That's it. We do that we have have, in principle, defined the universe as it exists today.


*for that, see https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3209299&postcount=56" on emergent behaviour - last paragraph: "If so, then the principle can be scaled up to cosmic proportions..."

 

[nismaratwork]

Really? You do know that UToE is almost entirely complete?

Note: UToE does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe*, the UToE need do one thing and one thing only: reconcile gravity with the other three fundamental forces (already reconciled.) That's it. We do that we have have, in principle, defined the universe as it exists today.


*for that, see https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3209299&postcount=56" on emergent behaviour - last paragraph: "If so, then the principle can be scaled up to cosmic proportions..."

Wow... don't take this the wrong way, because I like and respect you, especially your dispassion: I never would have pegged you for an optimist!

 

[DaveC426913]

Wow... don't take this the wrong way, because I like and respect you, especially your dispassion: I never would have pegged you for an optimist!

Hey, if Microsoft can tell me that my install progress is 95% complete, even though the last 5% will take ten times longer than the entire 95% preceding it, then I can say that UToE is 75% complete, even if it takes another century for the last 25%.

 

[nismaratwork]

Hey, if Microsoft can tell me that my install progress is 95% complete, even though the last 5% will take ten times longer than the entire 95% preceding it, then I can say that UToE is 75% complete, even if it takes another century for the last 25%.

You need linux so badly man... so badly.

I think we have a name for this: 'Windows Installer Logic'.

 

[cobalt124]

Really? You do know that UToE is almost entirely complete?

Note: UToE does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe*, the UToE need do one thing and one thing only: reconcile gravity with the other three fundamental forces (already reconciled.) That's it. We do that we have have, in principle, defined the universe as it exists today.


*for that, see https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3209299&postcount=56" on emergent behaviour - last paragraph: "If so, then the principle can be scaled up to cosmic proportions..."

Yes, I misunderstood that one. From my laymans reading of pop-sci and PF then, my understanding is that a breakthrough is needed, so I would say anytime between now and - hmmmm - 100 years. Thanks for the link, I'll give it a read.

 

[Ken Natton]

You do know that UToE is almost entirely complete?

Note: UToE does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe*, the UToE need do one thing and one thing only: reconcile gravity with the other three fundamental forces (already reconciled.) That's it. We do that we have have, in principle, defined the universe as it exists today.

Hmmm. Not convinced. To my understanding, the point about the UToE is that it is the law of which all other laws are a special case. All why and how question sequences will ultimately finish with the UToE. 'Does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe' in the sense that just because we can't follow the causal chain doesn't mean that it is wrong, but the ultimate explanation for everything will lie in the UToE. That's why the physicists can all go home. And, as is also my understanding, the physics world is not exactly in broad consensus about the right direction of enquiry from here. So the idea that we are anywhere close to arriving at it seems optimisitic to say the least to me.

 

[nismaratwork]

15 seconds after WWIII puts an end to humanity.

 

[DaveC426913]

Hmmm. Not convinced. To my understanding, the point about the UToE is that it is the law of which all other laws are a special case. All why and how question sequences will ultimately finish with the UToE. 'Does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe' in the sense that just because we can't follow the causal chain doesn't mean that it is wrong, but the ultimate explanation for everything will lie in the UToE.

Right. Basically, the entire present universe is emergent from the 4 fundamental forces. We've reconciled 3. Reconcile the 4th, and we have our UToE.

But having the UToE does not mean we don't have aeons of work to do to understand how everything that comes out of that works.

(I think we're actually in agreement here.)

That's why the physicists can all go home. And, as is also my understanding, the physics world is not exactly in broad consensus about the right direction of enquiry from here. So the idea that we are anywhere close to arriving at it seems optimisitic to say the least to me.

I never said we were close. All I did was question cobalt's opinon that we will never have it. His "never" leads me to believe that he thinks the question is 'when will we ever have a univesal understanding of everything there is', which I agree, is essentially never. But that's not the question that was asked. The question asked was much smaller and very discrete.

See?

 

[I like Serena]

Really? You do know that UToE is almost entirely complete?

Note: UToE does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe*, the UToE need do one thing and one thing only: reconcile gravity with the other three fundamental forces (already reconciled.) That's it. We do that we have have, in principle, defined the universe as it exists today.*for that, see https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3209299&postcount=56" on emergent behaviour - last paragraph: "If so, then the principle can be scaled up to cosmic proportions..."

I have a new one.

10a. A complete list of all fundamental particles plus an explanation why it is so long.

As I understand it the list of fundamental particles used to be 3 long in 1900 (proton, neutron, electron), but it is currently 28 long and presumable the graviton has yet to be added.
Afaik no one really understands why the Standard Model works. The foundations are the fact that it looks mathematically nice and that we have empirical confirmations.

But as wikipedia states it: "Because of its success in explaining a wide variety of experimental results, the standard model is sometimes regarded as a theory of almost everything."

[edit]Note the use of "a" theory, and of "almost" everything.[/edit]

 

[I like Serena]

Really? You do know that UToE is almost entirely complete?

Note: UToE does not need to describe every discrete event in the universe*, the UToE need do one thing and one thing only: reconcile gravity with the other three fundamental forces (already reconciled.) That's it. We do that we have have, in principle, defined the universe as it exists today.


*for that, see https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3209299&postcount=56" on emergent behaviour - last paragraph: "If so, then the principle can be scaled up to cosmic proportions..."

Btw, I was just looking it up on wikipedia, but I can't find a Unified Theory of Everything (UToE).
I can find:

• Unified Theory of Interactions (UToI I guess), which redirects to GUT
• Grand Unifying Theory (GUT)
• Theory of Everything (TOE)

 

[White Noise]

Is humanity capable of surviving to reach a period of Space Colonisation?

Question being: Are we necessarily capable of reaching this stage of humanity? What kind of massive catastrophes and collapses would prevent us? What technology would we need?

First off, I would like to just clarify - I'm not a doom-monger claiming 2012 is coming and the end is nigh. (Well, I am claiming 2012 is coming, but y'know)

This is a question I've been chewing on for a while now, and I really think it has some good scientific ground for thought, rather than just being a sensationalist title. What I'm really hoping for, I suppose, is to have my understanding of all the plethora of topics covered here expanded, in the company of much better minds than I. I would honestly be fascinated by the opinions of scientists from every field, as well as other people knowledgeable in fields such as history, or politics, or psychology.

So - is that level of technology reachable? Is it desirable?


Physicists and Engineers - What kind of technology will we need for a venture like this? How soon would this be available - how far is our current science from the required level? What planet would be the first to colonise? What effects will the apparently changing Sun have on us and our planet? And so on.

Chemists/Biologists/Environmental Scientists - How are we going to need to adapt ourselves to both a resource depleted world and to a foreign planet? How could we establish a sustainable colony?

Geologists/Geographers/Environmental Scientists - Exactly what threats is humanity facing as a whole from the earth? How much potential for catastrophe do the likes of Global Warming, earthquakes, and possible ice ages have for humanity?

Historians and possibly Psychologists - Looking to the fall of past empires and civilisations - are we immune to these kind of collapses? What initiated these collapses, and is it simply human nature to repeat these actions and events?

Absolutely everyone ever - More questions or comments or opinions would be wonderful. Explode my head with cleverness. It would be a noble death.


These are the kind of questions I am thinking of, but have very little real knowledge about. No doubt there are questions I should be asking, but am unaware of. Please point these ones out, with as much ridicule as you see fit.

I am genuinely interested in having a reasoned debate on this, and would absolutely love if you could humour me in this.

Apologies if this is in the wrong forum.

 

[Tangent87]

I also think about this question a lot. I think for humanity to have any chance of some day being masters of the universe we will have to first develop a technology that allows us to travel faster than the speed of light (like slipstream space travel in Halo: http://halo.wikia.com/wiki/Slipspace) as our nearest star Alpha Centauri is about 4 light years away so even traveling at the speed of light it would take us 4 YEARS to get there! And there's no guarantee we'll be able to sustain life on any of the planets there, the nearest planet that would be sustainable for human life could be thousands of light years away for all we know, so faster than light travel is going to be essential.

 

[nismaratwork]

I don't think UToE is really Wikipedia-friendly...

 

[Thetom]

5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI" (as outlined in the first bullet list in the page)

We already have this: http://www.cleverbot.com/