News Who Will Win the Elections? Predictions and Analysis

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The discussion centers around predictions for the upcoming elections, with participants expressing uncertainty about the outcomes between Obama and Romney. Many believe the race is extremely close, with some polls showing Romney slightly ahead, while others indicate Obama has the advantage due to endorsements and debate performance. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on voter sentiment is debated, with some arguing it has complicated Obama's chances, while others note his effective response to the crisis. The electoral map suggests that Obama has a clearer path to victory, needing fewer swing states compared to Romney, who must secure multiple key states to win. Overall, the consensus leans towards an Obama victory, despite the tight race.

Who will win elections?


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No who should win .. but just a simple question who will and let's see who gets it right! :biggrin:

I am still bit confused. I was going to bet on Romney but Sandy complicated things a bit.
 
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If this thread gets political it will have to be moved to the dark side :devil:!

I say Obama will win, but it will be soooooo close.
 
I'd be surprised if Romney won. Though, so far I've seen a surprising amount of support for him.
 
Political elections do go in P&WA.
 
leroyjenkens said:
I'd be surprised if Romney won. Though, so far I've seen a surprising amount of support for him.
I don't know what you mean. This race looks quite close. I don't know latest poll but Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked. I am bit more on betting Romney to win than Obama.
 
It looks like a toss-up right now. I want Romney to win, but I don't have a strong feeling either way about whether or not he will. I'm going to hold off on voting in this poll for now.
 
I think Obama. Still not sure who I am voting for. I don't like either.
 
Rootx, I was thinking of starting a thread analyzing some of the major media polls to discuss what they are predicting. Would you mind if I posted that kind of thing in your thread?
 
russ_watters said:
Rootx, I was thinking of starting a thread analyzing some of the major media polls to discuss what they are predicting. Would you mind if I posted that kind of thing in your thread?
Since, this is already moved into PW&A so feel free to get deeper into this topic :smile:

I was also going to thinking of bringing the polls data to show Romney is not behind Obama.
 
  • #10
I'm not sure I understand how Sandy could have affected Obama's chances at the election? Did he say something about the storm that people didn't like, or did he do something that people didn't like and it had something to do with the storm?
 
  • #11
rootX said:
I don't know what you mean. This race looks quite close. I don't know latest poll but Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked. I am bit more on betting Romney to win than Obama.
I've seen Romney ahead by 1 or 2 and I've seem Obama ahead by 2. It's close.

Some jobs numbers come out tomorrow, and unemployment may have ticked up a bit.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/danbigm...ows-some-unexpected-strength-in-labor-market/

Sandy certainly has complicated matters in NY and NJ. It's not clear what influence it will have the further from the area folks live.
 
  • #12
SHISHKABOB said:
I'm not sure I understand how Sandy could have affected Obama's chances at the election? Did he say something about the storm that people didn't like, or did he do something that people didn't like and it had something to do with the storm?
Yes, he handled it quite good. One example: "Gov Christie has praised Mr Obama's response to the storm as "outstanding"."

But, here's the poll data:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19415745
It's precisely coin tossing thing right now IMO.
 
  • #13
rootX said:
Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked.

Remember, it's not the national popular vote total that counts. Ask Al Gore. :wink:
 
  • #14
Even if the polls show they're tied, I think Obama has an advantage. Many people on the left who'll vote for Jill Stein or any other independent will vote for Obama if they see that the polls show a tie. On the other hand, on the right, I don't see libertarians voting on Mitt Romney over Gary Johnson...
 
  • #15
rootX said:
Yes, he handled it quite good. One example: "Gov Christie has praised Mr Obama's response to the storm as "outstanding"."

But, here's the poll data:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19415745
It's precisely coin tossing thing right now IMO.
And Michael Bloomberg (mayor of New York City) endorsed Obama.

Yet the race is for the most part a statistical dead heat.

Many may vote for Romney because he's not Obama.
 
  • #16
I predict Obama will win. With The Economist, Christie, and Bloomberg backing him, and his performance in the last debate, he has a lot of momentum going his way right before the election.
 
  • #18
The news media loves a horserace, and they've got y'all believing it's going to come down to the wires. It won't. The height of Romney's post-Denver bounce was enough to put him almost neck and neck with Obama. The bounce has since receded dramatically. Obama's "firewall" in Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will win him the day.

Romney will literally have to sweep the remaining swing states to eke out a victory, plus steal one from the firewall, and that's just not going to happen. The only swing state showing him up at this point is North Carolina, and there are some encouraging numbers from the early voting polls to show that NC may be closer than the polls indicate.

Obama will win, and he will likely win with around 300 EV's or more. Florida is a tossup, and it's the only reason why I'm not predicting a ~330 Obama victory. I also highly recommend not citing national polls when attempting prognostication. The auto bailout has seemingly kept the midwest firewall intact, while the Republican enthusiasm (especially in deep red states) will likely allow Romney to keep the national vote close or even going in his favor. I suspect a split between the EV winner and PV winner is much more likely than people imagine, but I'm not willing to make that prediction.

At this point, I'm most interested in Virginia. If it goes Democrat again, and I think there's a serious chance it will, then it can be said that 2008 was the start of a new political landscape that will be very bad for Republicans. Virginia going blue twice is as bad for Republicans as Pennsylvania going red twice would be for Democrats. It represents a serious breach in their otherwise-solid wall of the old Confederacy. The ramifications for 2016 are immense. Unless the Republicans can find a way to escape the trap of appealing only to WASPs, 2008 and 2012 will be the harbingers of their doom.
 
  • #19
Pythagorean said:
I predict Obama will win. With The Economist, Christie, and Bloomberg backing him, and his performance in the last debate, he has a lot of momentum going his way right before the election.

Approximately .02% (that two hundredths of one percent) of Americans read The Economist. Why would you think that matters?
 
  • #20
phinds said:
Approximately .02% (that two hundredths of one percent) of Americans read The Economist. Why would you think that matters?

I don't read the economist but I heard about, and can recognize the social impact of, an endorsement from a magazine called The Economist in a time when the economy is a political topic.
 
  • #22
Pythagorean said:
I predict Obama will win. With The Economist, Christie, and Bloomberg backing him, and his performance in the last debate, he has a lot of momentum going his way right before the election.

Romney lying/gaffing about Jeep in Ohio, the battleground state, and home to a Jeep factory, probably wasn't a good idea either. And of course Dems are not letting Romney get away with his past statements that had strong implications for ditching FEMA in the wake of hurricane Sandy.

I really think it's over for Romney.
 
  • #23
rootX said:
I don't know what you mean. This race looks quite close. I don't know latest poll but Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked. I am bit more on betting Romney to win than Obama.
You've been looking at the wrong polling numbers. We do not use a popular vote in the US. The realclearpolitics electoral map has always had Obama winning. In their map with tossups Romney enjoyed a single digit electoral lead for a 3 day period a couple weeks ago and that was it.
 
  • #24
Gokul43201 said:
You've been looking at the wrong polling numbers. We do not use a popular vote in the US. The realclearpolitics electoral map has always had Obama winning. In their map with tossups Romney enjoyed a single digit electoral lead for a 3 day period a couple weeks ago and that was it.

And note that RCP at the time considers anything with an aggregate polling advantage of less than 5.5% to be a "toss up". Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which are practically guaranteed for Obama, were at or around 4 to 5%. With those states included, Obama has a 57 point advantage with 253 votes. It takes 270 to win. He wins Ohio? Game over. He wins Florida? Game over. He wins Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire? Game over. He wins Virginia and any other state? Game over. Romney, on the other hand, must go from 191 points to 270. Even giving him Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, he's still not winning, at 258. The election is Obama's, pure and simple.
 
  • #25
ParticleGrl said:
Russ- the work of poll aggregation has been done for you-

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ is probably the most famous, but these guys at my alma mater also do poll aggregation http://election.princeton.edu/
Here's another:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
 
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  • #26
Angry Citizen said:
Even giving him Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, he's still not winning, at 258.
Romney need to win FL, OH and one other state. VA or CO are the ones within closest reach, I think. Giving each of these states a 50% probability puts Romney at about a 19% chance of winning. And that's just a crude estimate, but even just stipulating FL and OH as requirements sets the upper bound near 25% for Romney.
 
  • #27
If I did my head math right, Colorado would not be enough to secure him victory. He would need one other state on top of FL, OH, and CO.
 
  • #28
Am I allowed to vote ...

in this poll?
 
  • #29
George Jones said:
Am I allowed to vote ...

in this poll?
Only for the "Leader of the Free World" or "Most Powerful Man on Earth"! :rolleyes:
 
  • #30
Angry Citizen said:
If I did my head math right, Colorado would not be enough to secure him victory. He would need one other state on top of FL, OH, and CO.
You may be right - it's hard to do this over a phone. But in any case, I don't think it changes the numbers very much, you still end up with something near the 20% mark. I wonder what Intrade is currently going at.
 
  • #31
Gokul43201 said:
You may be right - it's hard to do this over a phone. But in any case, I don't think it changes the numbers very much, you still end up with something near the 20% mark. I wonder what Intrade is currently going at.

67% Obama. And according to Nate Silver, those are bullish odds for Romney versus the other betting sites. Your prediction is also what Silver has to offer, an 80.9% chance of an Obama victory (likely to increase tonight by another couple points given the good set of polls released today).
 
  • #32
Angry Citizen said:
At this point, I'm most interested in Virginia. If it goes Democrat again, and I think there's a serious chance it will, then it can be said that 2008 was the start of a new political landscape that will be very bad for Republicans. Virginia going blue twice is as bad for Republicans as Pennsylvania going red twice would be for Democrats. It represents a serious breach in their otherwise-solid wall of the old Confederacy. The ramifications for 2016 are immense. Unless the Republicans can find a way to escape the trap of appealing only to WASPs, 2008 and 2012 will be the harbingers of their doom.

Any time Republicans lose, we hear about the supposed end of the Republican party, but it doesn't happen. I don't get the idea that Republicans only appeal to WASP's though. I think it's more just that other ethnicities tend to vote Democratic party in larger numbers.
 
  • #33
Another twist to the race
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltCIEbLMaQg
 
  • #34
Which pollster was closest on the 2008 P. election? Let's see. Spread was 6.2 (popular vote). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.htmla couple days prior, and both had a very low 2.0 MoE.

Most recent:
Rasmussen: dead even, 48:48
Pew: dead even, 47:47

I hope the replacement refs don't have to call this one.

Also:
ABC/WaPo, Gallup, NPR - Romney
CBS/NYT/, NJ, IBD/TIPP, Politico - Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
 
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  • #35
mheslep said:
Which pollster was closest on the 2008 P. election? Let's see. Spread was 6.2 (popular vote). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.htmla couple days prior.

Most recent:
Rasmussen: dead even, 48:48
Pew: dead even, 47:47

ABC/WaPo, Gallup, NPR - Romney
CBS/NYT/, NJ, IBD/TIPP, Politico - Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Hope everybody carefully punched their chads in Florida.

But Ras was off by 2 or 3 on Ohio, and they show Ohio roughly tied. The PV doesn't matter.
 
  • #36
mheslep said:
Which pollster was closest on the 2008 P. election? Let's see. Spread was 6.2 (popular vote). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.htmla couple days prior, and both had a very low 2.0 MoE.

Most recent:
Rasmussen: dead even, 48:48
Pew: dead even, 47:47

I hope the replacement refs don't have to call this one.

Also:
ABC/WaPo, Gallup, NPR - Romney
CBS/NYT/, NJ, IBD/TIPP, Politico - Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Popular opinion doesn't decide the president, rather the electoral college. And going by the electoral college numbers Obama has, Romney is sure to lose this election even if he does pick up the popular vote 50.1 to 49.9.

I still believe Obama will win the popular vote, but he sure is going to win the electoral college over Romney.
 
  • #38
CAC1001 said:
Any time Republicans lose, we hear about the supposed end of the Republican party, but it doesn't happen. I don't get the idea that Republicans only appeal to WASP's though. I think it's more just that other ethnicities tend to vote Democratic party in larger numbers.

1) Yes, the Republican Party will end if they lose Virginia again. The Republican Party died in 1976, and was reborn in 1980. Then it died again in 2008, and was reborn in 2010. Now it will die again, and who knows when it will be reborn? Likely within a couple election cycles, yes, but it will be a brand spankin' new Republican Party, likely one that is capable of tapping and trilling its rhotics. In 1980, it switched from the cautious and careful stewards of progress to the regressives of Ronald Reagan that wanted to roll back progress. In 2010, it switched from compassionate conservatism to the followers of Ayn Rand. Now we will see Randian ideology repudiated fully. What will they morph into next? Who knows.

2) You're right, it's more WASMs than WASPs - white, anglo-saxon males. I'm glad for Mormonism's sake that it didn't become a campaign issue, and the evangelicals were capable of swallowing their distaste for the followers of Smith.

But this is off topic.
 
  • #39
If it dies and is reborn every two years, I'm ok with it. Wish I had so many lives. :rolleyes:
 
  • #40
russ_watters said:
If it dies and is reborn every two years, I'm ok with it. Wish I had so many lives. :rolleyes:

If you came back as russ_gabo of Zululand, then russ_devereaux of France upon your deaths, would you really?
 
  • #41
Angry Citizen said:
1In 1980, it switched from the cautious and careful stewards of progress to the regressives of Ronald Reagan that wanted to roll back progress.

How do you define progress? I would argue that Reagan's policies and Clinton's very similar (economic) policies gave us some very prosperous economic times. If you want to look at left/right dichotomies, compare the economic and fiscal situation of California with that of Texas, or of Germany and Switzerland (probably the two most right-wing nations in Europe) with the likes of France, Italy, Spain, Greece, etc...on California, that state was not built into the great state it is following the current policies of large government regulation, high spending, and high taxes it currently adheres to. New York state has lost two seats in the House due to population declining (another very "progressive" state).

In 2010, it switched from compassionate conservatism to the followers of Ayn Rand. Now we will see Randian ideology repudiated fully. What will they morph into next? Who knows.

By that argument, you could say we've also seen the "progressive" Democratic party arguments repudiated in 2010. And while the Republican party can be too far right for my tastes, I'd also make the argument that the Democratic party has gone too far left as of late.

BTW, Romney has not run as a far-right Republican.

2) You're right, it's more WASMs than WASPs - white, anglo-saxon males. I'm glad for Mormonism's sake that it didn't become a campaign issue, and the evangelicals were capable of swallowing their distaste for the followers of Smith.

But this is off topic.

Again, what makes the Republican party only appeal to WASPs or WASMs? From what I can tell, it's simply that other ethnicities do not agree as much with the policies of limited government is all, and also a perceived racism within the Republican party. On social issues, Hispanics and even blacks tend to lean pretty conservative.
 
  • #42
CAC1001 said:
If you want to look at left/right dichotomies, compare the economic and fiscal situation of California with that of Texas

Okay. Please, peruse this article. Let's play a drinking game. Every time Texas is dead last in something (if it's a positive) or first in something (if it's a negative), let's take a drink.

http://texaslsg.org/texasonthebrink/texasonthebrink.pdf

Germany and Switzerland (probably the two most right-wing nations in Europe) with the likes of France, Italy, Spain, Greece

On what basis do you believe Germany is a "right wing nation"? Its economy is heavily protectionist. They have a vast social safety net. They're heavily unionized. They have socialized medicine. Their top tier tax rate is 45%, plus they have a value-added tax. The German government extracts about 40% of GDP in taxes; ours is 26%. Don't tell me Germany is anything remotely close to a right wing nation. They're a smart nation with a massive manufacturing base, and the EU has allowed them to dominate the nations you mentioned.

A better comparison is between the most left wing nation, Norway, with the rest of Europe. Norway's unemployment rate is 2.6%. Yes, 2.6%. It also features perhaps the best and most comprehensive social safety net in the entire world. Unsurprisingly, it's also not a member of the EU. Imagine that.

It's funny you mention France, incidentally. What is so wrong about their economy, in your estimation?

By that argument, you could say we've also seen the "progressive" Democratic party arguments repudiated in 2010.

The one that gave us socialized medicine? The one that closed Gitmo? The one that signed Kyoto? The one that reinstated Glass-Steagal?

Oh wait. None of that happened. If anything, 2010 was a repudiation of the conservative approach that the Democrats have taken since Reagan's triumph. Obama has struck a populist tone this election cycle, one focused on attacking the rich. It's clearly working.

Again, what makes the Republican party only appeal to WASPs or WASMs?

I could say a lot about "why", but it would get me banned most likely.

The reason I can say that, however, is that WASMs are the only demographic that supports the Republicans by a comfortable margin. Women? Democrat. Blacks? Democrat, overwhelmingly. Hispanics? Democrat. Atheists? Democrat. Seculars? Democrat. Romney holds an appeal with white religious males - and that, more than anything, is why he will lose on Tuesday.

BTW, Romney has not run as a far-right Republican.

Which Romney? The one since Denver, the one in 2008, the one in the Republican primaries..?
 
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  • #43
Angry Citizen said:
If you came back as russ_gabo of Zululand, then russ_devereaux of France upon your deaths, would you really?
In two years (with no elections in between!), I don't think the world could change quite so much.

My point is that I always assume when people say that something/someone "died", they aren't coming back. To say that the GOP "died", but then came back with a vengeance in the very next election seems pretty silly to me.

Regardless, you have made some more specific predictions about what would happen in this election. Predictions, some of which I expect to be spectacularly wrong.
 
  • #44
Angry Citizen said:
Okay. Please, peruse this article. Let's play a drinking game. Every time Texas is dead last in something (if it's a positive) or first in something (if it's a negative), let's take a drink.

http://texaslsg.org/texasonthebrink/texasonthebrink.pdf

A few things:

1) You're citing a left-leaning research caucus in the Texas house, giving what is in many ways a rather arbitrary ranking IMO.

2) I'm talking more about the economic and fiscal health of the state. That Texas has lots of people moving into it, healthy economic growth, and an unemployment rate below the national average. I think one can very much make the argument perhaps for additional spending, public services and regulations in Texas, but the point is not to overdo it in the way California has.

3) The state that is literally "on-the-brink" I'd say is California right now. Not because of having more public services, or more spending, or higher taxes, or more regulations per se, but because of doing them excessively.

On what basis do you believe Germany is a "right wing nation"? Its economy is heavily protectionist. They have a vast social safety net. They're heavily unionized. They have socialized medicine. Their top tier tax rate is 45%, plus they have a value-added tax. The German government extracts about 40% of GDP in taxes; ours is 26%. Don't tell me Germany is anything remotely close to a right wing nation. They're a smart nation with a massive manufacturing base, and the EU has allowed them to dominate the nations you mentioned.

By European standards, and even by certain American standards, Germany is pretty right-wing IMO. They adhere to a philosophy known as Ordoliberalism, which is a variant of neoliberalism, but one which while having a heavy focus on promoting a market capitalist economy, also has an emphasis on promoting a strong role for the State in making sure that said economy has healthy competition and also a strong safety net. The Germans focus very much on being able to pay for their large safety net (different from America) however and have come under a lot of criticism as of late for engaging in and pushing for austerity measures (also different from America right now). They have high unionization, but their system works where the unions have a much better working relationship with employers in terms of how things get worked out, so that the relationship is not as combative as we see in a country like the U.S. or the U.K pre-Thatcher (a pretty hard-core right-winger who turned around the UK's economy and stopped it from going over a cliff).

Germany does not have socialized medicine. They have a universal healthcare system that is a combination of public and private elements. I would argue that the EU has not allowed them to dominate the other nations, that they have dominated because, unlike the other nations that became very profligate with their spending and did not focus on actually producing things, Germany has focused on building an economy that actually makes lots of things and on being fairly fiscally responsible. The backbone of the German economy is the "Mittelstand," all of the small and medium-sized firms that focus on producing products focused on engineering and craftsmanship, for which Germany is reknowned. Germany is able to get away with levels of protectionism because the United States, one of its biggest customer countries, is not very protectionist (Germany is a major exporter).

The irony is that the EU was created to prevent Germany from becoming dominant, but due to the actions of the other nations, has led to Germany inadverdently becoming the most dominant economy, and hence nation, in the EU.

Also look at Switzerland, which is very free-market-oriented.

A better comparison is between the most left wing nation, Norway, with the rest of Europe. Norway's unemployment rate is 2.6%. Yes, 2.6%. It also features perhaps the best and most comprehensive social safety net in the entire world. Unsurprisingly, it's also not a member of the EU. Imagine that.

A few things:

1) Norway gets 20% of its GDP from oil (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/no.html), as it's one of the largest oil exporters and also a large exporter of gas. When you have nearly one-fourth of your GDP from exporting oil, it's not difficult to have a large safety net and sound finances.

2) It's a small country, with a population of 4.9 million people. There's more than that in New York City.

3) A country that has large fossil fuel revenues and a relatively homogenous, small population, is not that difficult to govern with regards to maintaining a large safety net and sound finances.

4) I don't know if I'd agree that Norway is the most "left-wing" nation in Europe.

It's funny you mention France, incidentally. What is so wrong about their economy, in your estimation?

Excessive spending and terrible business environment.

The one that gave us socialized medicine? The one that closed Gitmo? The one that signed Kyoto? The one that reinstated Glass-Steagal?

Oh wait. None of that happened. If anything, 2010 was a repudiation of the conservative approach that the Democrats have taken since Reagan's triumph. Obama has struck a populist tone this election cycle, one focused on attacking the rich. It's clearly working.

I think it takes a real stretch of the imagination to claim that the Democrats lost in 2010 for being too conservative. Leftists aren't stupid. That would be like conservatives getting mad at the Republican party for being too left-wing, and thus voting in scores of Democrats.

One of the strategies that had been used by the Democrats to win control of the House and Senate in 2006 was to run a lot of conservative Democratic party candidates, as opposed to far-left candidates. And yes, they did give us socialized medicine, via Obamacare, which they had to pull every trick in the book to ram through. I'd say Obama is running on a populist tone for two reasons:

1) He has nothing else to run on

2) He needs to pull his base out for this election (which means the internal polling in his campaign shows him in trouble). Instead of running centrist, he's running hard left right now. He's trying to appeal to his base, not to independent voters.

The reason I can say that, however, is that WASMs are the only demographic that supports the Republicans by a comfortable margin. Women? Democrat. Blacks? Democrat, overwhelmingly. Hispanics? Democrat. Atheists? Democrat. Seculars? Democrat. Romney holds an appeal with white religious males - and that, more than anything, is why he will lose on Tuesday.

Yes, but there is no real reason for Hispanics and blacks to support Democrats overwhelmingly except for reasons of 1) not liking the Republican ideas of limited government and/or 2) perceiving the Republican party as being racist. Women can go either way (they are who got Bush elected). Atheists and seculars, no surprise there, although even those I think would lean more Republican if not for the Republicans seeking to ram religion down people's throats so much.

Which Romney? The one since Denver, the one in 2008, the one in the Republican primaries..?

Since Denver. Obama ran pretty far left during the 2008 Democratic primaries as well, so I don't see what the big deal there is. He's also running very far left-wing now.
 
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  • #45
Obama ran pretty far left during the 2008 Democratic primaries as well, so I don't see what the big deal there is. He's also running very far left-wing now.

Wha? Obama has pretty much always run as slightly to the right of Clinton, and he governed slightly to the right of Clinton (Obamacare is nearly identical to the Republican plan put forward by Gingrich's house. Obama's position on taxes is lower than Clinton but higher than Bush, so on and so forth).

The only issue he is further left than Clinton seems to be financial regulation, and that's clearly more in response to recent history than anything (no matter who was president, SOME form of financial regulation was going to happen after the massive bank bailouts).

Now, Obama seems to be running primarily on pointing out that Romney appears to be something of an out of touch plutocrat (he seems to have been aided by Romney himself), and on women's issues (where he has been aided by some poorly thought out remarks by a host of Republicans). At least these are the adds I've been seeing.

Its helps to remember that the democratic tent is less 'ideologically pure' than the Republican tent, so successful primary candidates can run as more moderate than successful Republican primary candidates.
 
  • #46
ParticleGrl said:
Wha? Obama has pretty much always run as slightly to the right of Clinton, and he governed slightly to the right of Clinton (Obamacare is nearly identical to the Republican plan put forward by Gingrich's house. Obama's position on taxes is lower than Clinton but higher than Bush, so on and so forth).

Would have to disagree that he ever ran slightly to the right of Clinton. Clinton was what they call a "Third Way" Democrat, although even he tried governing to the left once elected initially. Then when the congress switched Republican, he declared, "The Era of Big Government is over." It is true that the Republicans put forward a plan with an individual mandate during the 1990s, but that was the establishment of the Republican party and the (surprisingly) the Heritage Foundation. But the grassroots conservative portion of the party never agreed with that plan and the Cato Institute at the time ran an article talking about how concerning it was to freedom that even the Republican party had endorsed the idea that the government can mandate people purchase something.

Some people think the Republican resistance to Obama's healthcare mandate was just partisan, but that isn't the case. Republicans were/are seriously bent-out-of-shape over the mandate, and many were/are not even aware that the Republican politicians had supported such a thing during the 1990s. Obama himself has said he is for complete single-payer healthcare (he defined it as a form of "Medicare-for-all" in a speech), but he understands that trying to move America outright to that wouldn't be practical, however some argue that Obamacare is single-payer by proxy.

I don't see how he has governed to the right of Clinton. He pushed for cap-and-trade and for union card check, and has sought to implement both in a way via the executive as opposed to the legislative as the legislative wouldn't pass them. I'd say the only reason he is for lower taxes than Clinton is because raising all taxes to Clinton levels would mean raising taxes on the middle-class and poor, and doing so right in the middle of a bad economy, which could make things even worse.

The only issue he is further left than Clinton seems to be financial regulation, and that's clearly more in response to recent history than anything (no matter who was president, SOME form of financial regulation was going to happen after the massive bank bailouts).

I agree on his being more to the left on financial regulation.

Now, Obama seems to be running primarily on pointing out that Romney appears to be something of an out of touch plutocrat (he seems to have been aided by Romney himself), and on women's issues (where he has been aided by some poorly thought out remarks by a host of Republicans). At least these are the adds I've been seeing.

Yes, Obama has sought the entire election to portray Romney as an out-of-touch evil plutocrat. Romney also made some remarks that can be manipulated to make him look bad.

Its helps to remember that the democratic tent is less 'ideologically pure' than the Republican tent, so successful primary candidates can run as more moderate than successful Republican primary candidates.

MMMMM...maybe. Both of them seem pretty ideologically pure to me.
 
  • #47
Pythagorean said:
I don't read the economist but I heard about, and can recognize the social impact of, an endorsement from a magazine called The Economist in a time when the economy is a political topic.

It's a good magazine.
 
  • #48
russ_watters said:
In two years (with no elections in between!), I don't think the world could change quite so much.

My point is that I always assume when people say that something/someone "died", they aren't coming back. To say that the GOP "died", but then came back with a vengeance in the very next election seems pretty silly to me.

Regardless, you have made some more specific predictions about what would happen in this election. Predictions, some of which I expect to be spectacularly wrong.

One has to give consideration to how our system works. It heavily favors a 2-party system. So another group just takes over one of the parties when it dies. In this case, the tea party seems to have consumed quite a bit of the republican party. "RINO's" are hunted down and eliminated.
 
  • #50
Obama Ahead in Two Battleground States
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-ahead-two-battleground-states-200800113.html

I'll be glad when the election is over, but not thrilled with the outcome regardless the winner.
 
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