Thorslog said:
Why does inflation mean that the universe was much smaller at 380000 years after the big bang than we would predict from the Big Bang model alone? What would we expect the two sizes to be?
Well, I don't know about predicting a different size, but a universe that has an early period of inflation definitely takes longer to expand from the same seed size to the same late-time size. Not much longer, but some.
The reason is that with the classical big bang, where the only energy density that matters at very early times is radiation, the expansion rate is slowing down dramatically early-on. So the picture is one where at early times things are very hot, very dense, and with an incredibly fast expansion rate that is rapidly slowing.
With inflation, the opposite is happening. The dominant energy density is a form of dark energy that causes a very rapidly-accelerated expansion. So at very, very early times, the rate of expansion was actually quite slow, and was sped up to a high rate of expansion later. Because the early expansion was actually slower, it takes more time under an inflationary model for the same seed to expand the same amount.
However, the difference in expansion time is basically a tiny fraction of a second, so for all intents and purposes it does not matter. But it is an interesting conceptual statement.