WhoWee,
you have posted many small speedbumps the administration has run into in this thread. I don't think this is going to change anyone's mind about who to vote for, nor that it will play a big role in the re-election strategy. I see that the president has three major problems he needs to get past:
- The economy. It's bad, he was hired in part to fix it, and he promised that his policies would keep unemployment below 9%. They didn't.
- He's a terrible speaker. This goes against the mainstream narrative, but ask yourself: who has been convinced to change his or her mind by a speech of his? His speeches don't sway opinions - they merely energize those who already have opinions. Worse, if the opinion was negative to begin with, they inflame rather than persuade.
- His friends. When Nancy Pelosi all but calls him a liar and when Harry Reid says that the private sector is doing just fine - we need to help the public sector - he surely reaches for a bottle of aspirin. (Warren G. Harding would understand)
Now, in every election, there are four groups that matter:
- Your base.
- Independents who voted for you last time.
- Independents who didn't vote for you last time.
- Your opponent's base.
Group 4 is hopeless. Group 3 is often overlooked. It does exist, otherwise people would never get more votes in their second term than their first. The Obama campaign and administration did their best to alienate these people right away: the "Yes we did" signs and bumper stickers, the famous "I won; get over it" (which isn't an exact quote, but sometimes the meme is stronger than the reality), calling the Right "enemies". In retrospect it would have been much smarter in the 1st 100 days for the President to reinforce the idea "Even if you didn't vote for me, I'm your President, and I am working for you to make this country better. We both want the same thing, even though we disagree about how to do it". Instead he called them enemies, and now he need their votes.
Support in Group 2 and in Group 1 are both waning, and this is a big problem, because its for different reasons. Both groups agree that the economic plan isn't working, but Group 2 is largely defecting because they think the administration is going too far and Group 1 is largely defecting because they think the administration is not going far enough. Getting them both on board together will be difficult. One strategy is to go very negative and campaign with the message, "I am not perfect, but my opponent is far, far worse", but this will collect only some of Group 2 (many who supported him in 2008 because of the hope of post partisanship) and will repel some of Group 3.
He will have a difficult time balancing all these competing interests in such a way as to gain a majority.
I hate to say it, because the man repels me, but Mr. Obama needs someone like Karl Rove. For all Rove's faults, of which there are many, he did one thing extraordinarily well: for each policy position, he knew how many votes it would gain and how many it would lose. In that regard, he served Mr. Bush very, very well.