Is North Korea's missile threat overestimated?

[Loren Booda]

My county of Arlington lost many lives at the Pentagon on 9/11. I now fear an atomic explosion centered on Washington, DC across the Potomac river.

What possible destruction might you anticipate for your community?

 

[Chaotic42]

I don't worry about it. There's no point worrying yourself sick over something you have no say in.

 

[Loren Booda]

Chaotic42,

I believe your attitude of que sera sera is shared by most, but mustn't we try to appreciate the magnitude of the danger, including that psychological? The Cold War seemed impersonal and removed in comparison.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The cold war was very real until the Reagan years. btw, did you know that a school desk can protect a person from a nuclear explosion? That always amazed me! If an attack happens, just get under your desk and cover the back of your neck.

The thing is that we can't really do much other than to keep pressure on the politicians to keep their eyes on the ball. For example, the issue of port security is hypercritical to your concerns here. So is gaining control of the X-Soviet nuclear materials reserves.

I don't think we can anticipate the worst. The more practical concerns like obtaining food and water reserves - general disaster preparedness - is all that a person can do to prepare. You are more likely to lose power, and access to money and basic needs for a week or two, than you are to get hit directly by a nuke.

If you are hit by a nuke you'll never know; sooooo que sera sera...

 

[Clausius2]

My terrorism nightmare is a terrorist attack inside the subway. It has to be something horrible.

 

[i_wish_i_was_smart]

i'm safe where i am, so i don't worry about it

 

[Loren Booda]

Ivan,

Yours is a simple enough strategy, but at the moment massive in scale. I wonder if physics can further help implement the search of cargo and the locating of fissile material.

 

[Zantra]

Protection from a desk- Ya...

As I heard a comedian comment recently- "as the mushroom cloud rises, the monkey bars begin to melt from the sun like temperatures and your teacher becomes a melted imprint against the blackboard, it's wonderful to know that you'll be safe an secure with the protection of a hunk of wood covering you."

yep.. nothing like a few thousand rads permeating your body giving rise to sores that make ebola seem like a small rash to brighten your day.

I just hope I'm within the flashpoint range. Slow death sucks...

 

[Zantra]

i'm safe where i am, so i don't worry about it

Safe as long as no country drops a 3KT nuke on your house-unless you have a 2 mile deep bunker built?

 

[i_wish_i_was_smart]

have you seen where i live where its written location, there is nothing where i live that would interest any terrorist to bomb... military wise and just plane terror wise, I'm in the middle of freking nowhere

 

[Sting]

I live near the CDC in Atlanta, Georgia but I'm not worried.

Terrorists may be willing to kill themselves for their cause but no terrorists in their right minds would even visit my campus...<shudders>...the hell on Earth.

 

[Zantra]

have you seen where i live where its written location, there is nothing where i live that would interest any terrorist to bomb... military wise and just plane terror wise, I'm in the middle of freking nowhere

No, I have no idea where you live.. but you never know.. hehe

 

[Erazman]

compare the amount of people who died on 9/11 to the amount of people who died in car accidents during that same week. anyone know the numbers? personally i feel pretty safe when i drive.

 

[Erazman]

i found some numbers,.. they're kind of old but they give you an idea...

http://www.unitedjustice.com/stories/stats.html

in the US...
"There were about 3.4 million injuries and 41,611 people killed in auto accidents in 1999"

"There were an estimated 15,517 murders in 2000"

"The CDC estimates that in the US more than 100,000 people are hospitalized and more than 20,000 people die from the flu and its complications every year."

 

[Evo]

compare the amount of people who died on 9/11 to the amount of people who died in car accidents during that same week. anyone know the numbers? personally i feel pretty safe when i drive.

All of the over attention by the media to the loss of people in the 9/11 tragedy really ticked me off. Ok, it was tragic, but no more tragic than any other accidental loss of life. On 9-11, my best friend Susan lost her husband, sister, brother-in-law and their two children when a drunk driver crossed the median and slammed head on into their car. Did it make the headlines? NO. Did a bunch of airhead celebrities light candles and sing in a TV special dedicated to raising funds for them? NO. Was there any widespread sympathy or money raising for them? NO.

Was the loss of her ENTIRE family, children included, any less tragic than someone losing a single adult relative in the 9/11 incident? NO, no one had a loss from 9/11 as devasting as her loss.

 

[Chronos]

Loss is much easier to bear and sympathize with when the victims are faceless.

 

[Moonbear]

Wow, I agree with Evo completely on this! I voiced that opinion to a few people in the past, but they always reacted as if I was the most heartless person on the planet to say something like that, so stopped voicing my opinion on it. We've had natural disasters that kill as many people, we've had plane crashes before, and yes, people die tragic deaths every day. It's sad that those people died, but no more sad than any other person losing a family member in an accident or in a drive-by shooting, or to a sudden illness. 3 years is a long time to still be mourning so deeply. The families of the victims should be moving forward with their lives, and we're not helping them by talking about it and reminding them all the time.

As for fears of terrorism, it really isn't something I worry about. I'm far more likely to get hit by a car crossing the street...nearly was last week in fact (idiot tried turning left while I was in the middle of the crosswalk, would have hit me if I didn't jump back about 3 feet when I realized he wasn't slowing down or driving around me). I'm not worried about a nuclear attack, unless I'm out on the periphery where I'll survive it. There really is no point wasting energy on worrying abou things that are beyond my control. It's better to just accept that if something bad should happen to me and I survive it, then I'll figure out a way to cope with it at the time.

 

[The_Professional]

All of the over attention by the media to the loss of people in the 9/11 tragedy really ticked me off. Ok, it was tragic, but no more tragic than any other accidental loss of life. On 9-11, my best friend Susan lost her husband, sister, brother-in-law and their two children when a drunk driver crossed the median and slammed head on into their car. Did it make the headlines? NO. Did a bunch of airhead celebrities light candles and sing in a TV special dedicated to raising funds for them? NO. Was there any widespread sympathy or money raising for them? NO.

The reason for the press coverage and all the media attention, not surprisingly is the magnitude of the terrorist attack that struck the nation. Same thing as when the oklahoma bldg. was blown up.

Every situation and the ones you mentioned are all tragic.

 

[Loren Booda]

9/11 may be the harbinger of worse things to come, whereas we have been numbed to traffic "accidents" daily on the news for years. The flu is often considered no worse than the common cold. Some of us drive drunk, willingly and routinely risking the lives of other citizens. I'm already becoming insensitive toward Iraq, but not yet domestic terrorism.

Yours was a terrible loss, Evo, striking home.

 

[i_wish_i_was_smart]

EVO YOU ARE MY GODDESS!
you have voiced to one thought that i tried to voice to other people, i always told them what was so special about 9/11 compared to other people dying, the answer is NONE, nothing what-so-ever, people die from terrorrist attack everyday, in the US, in Canada, everywhere, i was so pissed when i saw this year still a ceremony for 9/11, its like come on get over it already, time doesn't stand still, so people should go on with their lives

 

[ray b]

I fear far more the lose of freedoms
to our overbearing GOVERMENT
then any fear of terrorists actions
esp with the NEO-CONs in charge
people like ashKKKroft and BuSh2
donot respect real freedoms
and are a bigger long term threat then any terrorists

 

[i_wish_i_was_smart]

agian something i agree with

you people make me feel accepted with my views

 

[Gokul43201]

I find all this talk of nuclear attacks quite ridiculous ! Can you please tell me who's got nuclear warheads within ballistic range of the US? Current speculation is that North Korea may have missiles that have a range that's capable of making Alaska, or possibly even parts of the west coast. But this is, in all probability, a cautious overestimate. (Even the short and medium range Nodong missiles have lousy accuracy.) So unless you're afraid Putin might lose control to some crazy hardliner, or Blair or Chirac lose their heads, there is not going to be a mushroom cloud in the US.

And definitely not from a terror group...where do these ideas come from ??

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Missiles are not the only method of delivery. One concern was that of the Soviets suitcase bombs made in the late sixties. Fortunately, it is now very unlikely that these would work. They weren't designed to last this long and they have almost certainly not been maintained. The bad news is that - the last time I saw a report anyway - something like five are missing.

One of the most viable threats is that a bomb will be secreted on a ship. In fact I think this may have happened some months ago off the coast of New Jersey. Still, in spite of some strange facts surrounding the episode, the official story is that ore and dirt was responsible for the radiation levels detected. No news crews were allowed to fly near the ship.

Dirty bombs are probably the greatest threat. This is why it is so important to get control of the X-Soviet nuclear materials reserves. The bad news is that Soviet plant managers often kept two sets of books. In order to meet quota's they would overproduce when possible, hide these materials, then use them during future shortages. This to avoid penalties for shortfalls. So, the actual supply of U and Pu available in the X Soviet states remains unknown.

 

[i_wish_i_was_smart]

last i heard the only thing Korea could hit was southern Japan, and south Korea

 

[Gokul43201]

Missiles are not the only method of delivery.

Of course not. I guess I misunderstood the intent of the original post. My bad.

 

[Gokul43201]

last i heard the only thing Korea could hit was southern Japan, and south Korea

I'm sure I recall Tenet saying that the CIA believed that DPRK may have range enough to reach the west coast of America. I think this was declassified about 5 or 6 months ago, maybe earlier.

 

[i_wish_i_was_smart]

the CIA also said there were pictures of weapons of mass destruction in Irak
i'll believe my governement before i believe yours... no offence intended

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Really, no; Bush chose to only consider the evidence that this was the case; but that's another thread. It has been known for some time that N Korea could hit Hawaii.

 

[i_wish_i_was_smart]

hawaii is in the middle of the pacific ocean, anything that hits hawaii can not hit mainland, but i'll still believe my country before i believe yours, plain and simple

 

[Gokul43201]

the CIA also said there were pictures of weapons of mass destruction in Irak
i'll believe my governement before i believe yours... no offence intended

I said it was probably an overestimate. Private groups with access to high resolution satellite imagery (especially FAS and GlobalSecurity) seem to have suggested that the DPRK missile threat was really an empty threat. Pictures seem to show that the Nodong and Taepo' dong lauch facilities are in pretty lousy shape. Moreover, both FAS and Global Security (I think both were founded by the same person, John Pike) put the Taepo' dong range at less than 5000 km. The distance from North Korea to the west coast of America is about 8000 km. But I haven't looked lately to see if they've update/revised their info.