What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[Proton Soup]

Haven't you heard?

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/raymond-davis-had-taliban-links-pak-media-87066

oh my, you don't suppose CIA is still involved in terrorist activities, do you?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

So two Iranian warships are heading up the Suez Canal.

Expected response from America/other nations?

Also what interest does Iran have for sending these warships up the canal?

The Alvand

The Kharg

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... and she was drunk!

Thank God!

()

 

[nismaratwork]

People [in Benghazi] rolled their eyes at [Ghaddafi's] speech

This is getting very ugly.

 

[BobG]

It's not a silly question at all, in fact it's central to this issue.

Ghaddafi united a number of tribes with showmanship, terror, and more. This is factionalized, along clan/tribal lines... which is on one hand why Benghazi is now "free". On the other hand, it's why Ghaddafi is happy to BOMB them... they're not "his people" from his view, once they defect from his "coalition".

Yes, Libya is different from the other Middle East countries trying to dump current rulers. Libya is more similar to Afghanistan where tribal affiliations drive politics more than ideology.

Almost anything could happen - from the country breaking up into 2 or more nations to a new dictator selected by a few united tribes replacing Gaddafi. A united democracy or a united theocratic government are among the few outcomes that aren't realistic possibilities.

Gaddafi is done, but Western Libya might wind up being run by one of the tribes allied with Gaddafi. At least it would be run by someone with experience in government since position within Gaddafi's government tends to be given out to tribes allied with Gaddafi. Who knows what will happen in Eastern Libya, but I doubt it will be ruled by anyone previously allied with Gaddafi.

 

[nismaratwork]

Yes, Libya is different from the other Middle East countries trying to dump current rulers. Libya is more similar to Afghanistan where tribal affiliations drive politics more than ideology.

Almost anything could happen - from the country breaking up into 2 or more nations to a new dictator selected by a few united tribes replacing Gaddafi. A united democracy or a united theocratic governments are among the few outcomes that aren't realistic possibilities.

Gaddafi is done, but Western Libya might wind up being run by one of the tribes allied with Gaddafi. At least it would be run by someone with experience in government since position within Gaddafi's government tends to be given out to tribes allied with Gaddafi. Who knows what will happen in Eastern Libya, but I doubt it will be ruled by anyone previously allied with Gaddafi.

I'd have to agree with you, but I'd add... that "shaking out" process is going to do so much damage to infrastructure tribalism divided between East (Benghazi, Tripoli), central (Al-Aziziyah, other bedouin/Ghaddafi strongholds), and places such as Shahat may be the short-term. Benghazi already seems to have functionally ceceded from the current Libya, hence (IMO) the order to BOMB, not just shoot.

 

[BobG]

Gaddafi speaking on state television.

EDIT:
Is he drunk??!?

On American TV, you're listening to an interpreter; not Gaddafi. In this case, you're listening to an interpreter that seems to be having some trouble following Gaddafi's speech. That just amplifies the effect. (But even Arab listeners reported that it was a rambling speech that was difficult to follow.)

 

[nismaratwork]

On American TV, you're listening to an interpreter; not Gaddafi. In this case, you're listening to an interpreter that seems to be having some trouble following Gaddafi's speech. That just amplifies the effect. (But even Arab listeners reported that it was a rambling speech that was difficult to follow.)

I'm very good with the structures of languages, but my recall stinks for paired-word association. Still, I'm familiar enough with spoken Arabic that with the interpreter, that was truly WEIRD.

It's kind of tough also, because he spoke in his usual flowery metaphors, but not necessarily the right ones. Lots of referenes to Hadith, but again... in odd places.

 

[WhoWee]

I don't see WhoWee's comment should be taken that way. In fact, I see a connection between Obama's statements then, and what the young folks are doing now. These protests have been building for some time.

There was an interesting statement last week about the fact that the US cannot be seen (overtly) as driving any of the revolutions. The various groups in the various countries must exercise their self-determination.

One arab journalist indicated that he was impressed with the young folk and their initiative while feeling out of synch because his generation didn't see it coming. The young folk have by-passed the media and traditional institutions.

Please be careful about personalizing statements.

There are many factors at work in the Middle East - clearly. I do give President Obama credit for giving young people a motivational push - is he somehow responsible for everything that is happening - of course not.

As for influence, like it or not, the Cold War relationships are still in place. The US has been clearly aligned with Egypt and Israel. The Russians have influence over Libya and Iran. I believe the Russians have enough - credibility - with the Libyan leader and people to control the situation if they choose.

As for the "out of the ashes" comment - I believe in the natural order of things. The people of the Middle East have always been ruled or threatened by a major power - they have never been a free democracy in the western sense. I see no clear indication that is the goal of the people. I also believe in the predicable outcome of power vacuums - they are filled by the strongest force.

When you read the words of President Obama - he hedged his bet to communicate with the young people (IMO) with the references to Islam - something they understand as a force. If a person or persons don't rise above the conflicts - the dominant force in the region is religion - not democracy.

I give Obama credit for understanding this point - I just disagree with his "packaging" of the US's embrace of all things Muslim.

Also IMO - this posturing has created a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim (or at least not acknowledge) when there are problems (Fort Hood, Ground Zero Mosque, Muslim Brotherhood, underwear bomber, etc.).

Something else I touched on earlier is the UN response to the turmoil in the Middle East. This is arguably the greatest opportunity they've ever had to make a difference - but appear to not even have a plan?

What should President of the United States of America Obama do now? Protect our national interests including our allies, the shipping lanes, private property of US citizens, and the oil fields we depend upon for energy. I also hope he's asked Putin (and anyone else that has influence) to do something in Libya to stop the slaughter.

 

[Astronuc]

I listened to an interview with a young woman in Libya. She said that the Libyan people are 'waiting' for Gadhafi to leave, 'not hoping, but waiting'.

He doesn't seem inclined to leave peacefully.

Various Libyan ambassadors are quitting the regime, requesting support from the UN and other nations, and condemning Gadhafi. Even members of the Libyan government want him gone. It seems only certain elements of the military want to retain him.

Audio reports
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/22/133958104/libyas-u-s-ambassador-on-quitting-libyas-future
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/22/133955149/Libya-Update

In eastern Libya -
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/22/133955129/Libya-Border

 

[nismaratwork]

There are many factors at work in the Middle East - clearly. I do give President Obama credit for giving young people a motivational push - is he somehow responsible for everything that is happening - of course not.

As for influence, like it or not, the Cold War relationships are still in place. The US has been clearly aligned with Egypt and Israel. The Russians have influence over Libya and Iran. I believe the Russians have enough - credibility - with the Libyan leader and people to control the situation if they choose.

As for the "out of the ashes" comment - I believe in the natural order of things. The people of the Middle East have always been ruled or threatened by a major power - they have never been a free democracy in the western sense. I see no clear indication that is the goal of the people. I also believe in the predicable outcome of power vacuums - they are filled by the strongest force.

When you read the words of President Obama - he hedged his bet to communicate with the young people (IMO) with the references to Islam - something they understand as a force. If a person or persons don't rise above the conflicts - the dominant force in the region is religion - not democracy.

I give Obama credit for understanding this point - I just disagree with his "packaging" of the US's embrace of all things Muslim.

Also IMO - this posturing has created a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim (or at least not acknowledge) when there are problems (Fort Hood, Ground Zero Mosque, Muslim Brotherhood, underwear bomber, etc.).

Something else I touched on earlier is the UN response to the turmoil in the Middle East. This is arguably the greatest opportunity they've ever had to make a difference - but appear to not even have a plan?

What should President of the United States of America Obama do now? Protect our national interests including our allies, the shipping lanes, private property of US citizens, and the oil fields we depend upon for energy. I also hope he's asked Putin (and anyone else that has influence) to do something in Libya to stop the slaughter.

Interesting... my take on it is that this is one of the last vestigaes of European colonialism blowing up.

 

[dlgoff]

...(But even Arab listeners reported that it was a rambling speech that was difficult to follow.)

Well he was saying that drugs were part of the blame. Maybe he should look for better ones.

 

[nismaratwork]

The drug thing... I understand the reasoning, but I was unclear if he meant "drugs as in alcohol", or drugs "such as opium". Given how Libya treats non-cronies who so much as drink, it could be either.

@dlgoff: Maybe a suppository of Ben-Gay, with a core of DMSO and cobra venom. edit: Not sure if cobra venom would work... make that sodium cyanide to be sure, but keep the cobra venom.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... Also IMO - this posturing has created a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim (or at least not acknowledge) when there are problems (Fort Hood, Ground Zero Mosque, Muslim Brotherhood, underwear bomber, etc.).

Really?? So how does the http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41671189/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/" fit in this theory of yours?

 

[WhoWee]

Really?? So how does the http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41671189/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/" fit in this theory of yours?

Are you serious?

From your link: (my bold)
"U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice told council members that the veto "should not be misunderstood to mean we support settlement activity." She added that the U.S. view is that Israeli settlements lack legitimacy. "

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Are you serious?

Of course I’m serious. All you have to do is show me one Palestinian who thinks the U.S. veto was a good thing (to back up this theory of yours).

Take your time...

 

[WhoWee]

Of course I’m serious. All you have to do is show me one Palestinian who thinks the U.S. veto was a good thing (to back up this theory of yours).

Take your time...

As for my so called "theory" as you've specified is (still) related to my comment that "Also IMO - this posturing has created a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim (or at least not acknowledge) when there are problems (Fort Hood, Ground Zero Mosque, Muslim Brotherhood, underwear bomber, etc.). "?

If so - why doesn't this ""U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice told council members that the veto "should not be misunderstood to mean we support settlement activity." She added that the U.S. view is that Israeli settlements lack legitimacy. " " support my statement?

The US Ambassador made these comments - are you suggesting the Palestinians might not understand, appreciate, or believe her or President Obama's clarification of their position?

 

[BobG]

Are you serious?

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice told council members that the veto "should not be misunderstood to mean we support settlement activity." She added that the U.S. view is that Israeli settlements lack legitimacy.

But she said the draft "risks hardening the position of both sides" and reiterated the U.S. position that settlements and other contentious issues should be resolved in direct peace negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.

Well, at a minimum, Rice's comments are pretty wimpy when put into context. (Without the context, her comments appear as delusional as the comments Hillary Clinton made in Oct of 2002 when voting to authorize military force in Iraq.)

 

[Lacy33]

I really think this is sad. I think he is going to die. I don't understand that culture. I should have studied.
What is the bottom line for this situatuion in the region now?
For all the peoples? Will the whole region go like this? Will Iran too?
Is China worried?

 

[BobG]

I really think this is sad. I think he is going to die. I don't understand that culture. I should have studied.
What is the bottom line for this situatuion in the region now?
For all the peoples? Will the whole region go like this? Will Iran too?
Is China worried?

Each country will go through a revolution differently. But, historically, revolutions lead to a very weak government that winds up being overthrown shortly thereafter. The same repression that stifles any type of organized reform has a side effect of sabotaging the chances of forming a successful government after a revolution. There just isn't the political infrastructure to support a new government.

The US was an exception because the American revolution didn't result in drastic changes to each state's local government. In fact, the autonomy required of a distant colony makes it a lot easier to stage a successful revolution for independence from a distant ruler than to overthrow a local ruler. (And, even in the case of the US, its first national government didn't last all that long before being replaced by the Constitution.)

Iran won't see a complete overthrow of its government. Ahmadinejad is just the front for Iran's religious leaders and Ahmadinejad is expendable. This is his last term as President and the only reason he might last his term is because dismissing him midterm would look like panic.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... The US Ambassador made these comments - are you suggesting the Palestinians might not understand, appreciate, or believe her or President Obama's clarification of their position?

Please WhoWee, you are intelligent, let’s not play games.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41671189/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement Israel "deeply appreciates" the U.S. decision to veto the resolution.
...
British Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant, speaking on behalf of Britain, France and Germany, condemned Israeli settlements in the West Bank. "They are illegal under international law," he said.
...
The Palestinians have said repeatedly that they will not resume peace talks until Israel halts settlement building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians want as their capital.

What Susan Rice is performing a 'Quadruple Salchow' in highest politics, but it’s just words, it doesn’t 'cost' anything.

If you are right – "IMO ... a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim" – Obama could not vote against the will of the Muslim Palestinian, right??

 

[WhoWee]

Please WhoWee, you are intelligent, let’s not play games.



What Susan Rice is performing a 'Quadruple Salchow' in highest politics, but it’s just words, it doesn’t 'cost' anything.

If you are right – "IMO ... a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim" – Obama could not vote against the will of the Muslim Palestinian, right??

Did I not label this behavior "posturing"? We can weigh and measure my words (especially those prefaced with IMO) but not the President's or his representatives on the world stage?

 

[Lacy33]

Interesting. Thank you BobG.
Why with a globe of educated people, why would anyone agree to do this revolting knowing that it will end badly?
Was the system (Egypt, others) so bad that they just had to kill it and let the worst possible situation come in?
Were the people doing this revolt aware that worst things would come? Did they think the US would rescue them or some other power... perhaps one with money, not the US?
It's not that I don't know what oppression is. I do on a smaller scale. When I revolted and bolted, I had a plan. Still running down the street away from a violent dictator, I did not know I wouldn't get my head blown off. But when I made it out, things did not, as you say happens also on the larger scale go as I planned.
I lost everything.
Do these people know that they have a most uncertian future?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Did I not label this behavior "posturing"? We can weigh and measure my words (especially those prefaced with IMO) but not the President's or his representatives on the world stage?

Games games, nothing but games, just to deploy the vicious myth about Barack Hussein Obama, on a "Muslim Crusade". You are a very naughty little boy!

Tea anyone?

 

[nismaratwork]

Interesting. Thank you BobG.
Why with a globe of educated people, why would anyone agree to do this revolting knowing that it will end badly?
Was the system (Egypt, others) so bad that they just had to kill it and let the worst possible situation come in?
Were the people doing this revolt aware that worst things would come? Did they think the US would rescue them or some other power... perhaps one with money, not the US?
It's not that I don't know what oppression is. I do on a smaller scale. When I revolted and bolted, I had a plan. Still running down the street away from a violent dictator, I did not know I wouldn't get my head blown off. But when I made it out, things did not, as you say happens also on the larger scale go as I planned.
I lost everything.
Do these people know that they have a most uncertian future?

I know this has often been something that has gotten me into trouble, but... Ghaddafi is a PSYCHOPATH. A true, honest to god psychopath... organized and supported by fanatical cronies.

He WILL die in Libya, or end like Saddam (doubtful). Remember... Pan AM... he is a true terrorist. "This is [Ghadaffi's] country" (Ghaddafi)... you know what these kind of people do to what they can't control or have.

What sickens me, is that any number of bodies could make Libya a no-fly zone with minimal intervention. NO boots on the ground, but we could stop the air assets from being used. I'm looking at France, Spain, and Italy for this... you sold them this ****, now shoot it down.

To me, this is clear: we do not care about these lives... we care about oil. We talk, we mourn, and we moan (meaning governments and the UN), but NOTHING is done. NOTHING of substance while people are slaughtered like animals with weapons systems from the west.

DA: I'm sorry, but the Palestinians are dead people walking; their own "brothers" don't want them, the world doesn't want them, and Israel can't afford to have them. I'm not making a value judgement; like the Native Americans, they're going to fade and die.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... Do these people know that they have a most uncertian future?

I think they do... their 'choice' is very simple: Either you risk your head blown off in the streets, or you could have your testes grilled by a dictator – if you say or do something 'wrong' (or you could just be a 'random victim' for psychopaths).

If I lived under similar conditions, I would have done exactly the same thing – years ago.

 

[nismaratwork]

I think they do... their 'choice' is very simple: Either you risk your head blown off in the streets, or you could have your testes grilled by a dictator – if you say or do something 'wrong' (or you could just be a 'random victim' for psychopaths).

If I lived under similar conditions, I would have done exactly the same thing – years ago.

I would have run, or if that had not been an option... I can't say here what I'd do. I'm surprised that nobody else has done it however.

edit:

"He is one of those people who would be enormously improved by death."
-H.H. Munroe

"Some men are alive simply because it is against the law to kill them."
-Edward W. Howe

 

[WhoWee]

Games games, nothing but games, just to deploy the vicious myth about Barack Hussein Obama, on a "Muslim Crusade". You are a very naughty little boy!

Tea anyone?

"Games games, nothing but games"?

Where is the "the vicious myth about Barack Hussein Obama, on a "Muslim Crusade" in my post?

I quoted the President directly - his words. That is something you might want to become accustomed to as 2012 approaches - IMO.

If anything, it might be argued that I inferred he manipulated a group of people - said things he thought they would want to hear. But given the fact that he is a world class politician - that might also be considered a significant compliment - as I intended.

I posted this specifically:

"There are many factors at work in the Middle East - clearly. I do give President Obama credit for giving young people a motivational push - is he somehow responsible for everything that is happening - of course not.

As for influence, like it or not, the Cold War relationships are still in place. The US has been clearly aligned with Egypt and Israel. The Russians have influence over Libya and Iran. I believe the Russians have enough - credibility - with the Libyan leader and people to control the situation if they choose.

As for the "out of the ashes" comment - I believe in the natural order of things. The people of the Middle East have always been ruled or threatened by a major power - they have never been a free democracy in the western sense. I see no clear indication that is the goal of the people. I also believe in the predicable outcome of power vacuums - they are filled by the strongest force.

When you read the words of President Obama - he hedged his bet to communicate with the young people (IMO) with the references to Islam - something they understand as a force. If a person or persons don't rise above the conflicts - the dominant force in the region is religion - not democracy.

I give Obama credit for understanding this point - I just disagree with his "packaging" of the US's embrace of all things Muslim.

Also IMO - this posturing has created a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim (or at least not acknowledge) when there are problems (Fort Hood, Ground Zero Mosque, Muslim Brotherhood, underwear bomber, etc.).

Something else I touched on earlier is the UN response to the turmoil in the Middle East. This is arguably the greatest opportunity they've ever had to make a difference - but appear to not even have a plan?

What should President of the United States of America Obama do now? Protect our national interests including our allies, the shipping lanes, private property of US citizens, and the oil fields we depend upon for energy. I also hope he's asked Putin (and anyone else that has influence) to do something in Libya to stop the slaughter. "



If you want to stand behind your descriptive phrase "very naughty little boy!", please support your comment about "games" and you might want to demonstrate specific weakness in my analysis?

 

[nismaratwork]

Langauge barriers... remember the language difference guys...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

What sickens me, is that any number of bodies could make Libya a no-fly zone with minimal intervention. NO boots on the ground, but we could stop the air assets from being used. I'm looking at France, Spain, and Italy for this... you sold them this ****, now shoot it down.

To me, this is clear: we do not care about these lives... we care about oil. We talk, we mourn, and we moan (meaning governments and the UN), but NOTHING is done. NOTHING of substance while people are slaughtered like animals with weapons systems from the west.

Nismar, you are NOT a "cold person"! This shows real empathy!



I think there is an even 'simpler solution' than deploy Gaddafi’s old friend Berlusconi. I think there was a vote in UN today? On getting a global resolution on a "flight ban" over Libya, don’t know what happened...

But let’s say this is deployed and schizo Gaddafi sends up those http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirage_F1#Current_operators" from 1973; how long would it take to turn this "flying junkyard" into "sweet memories"...? 5 maybe 10 minutes for the leading military nations... Goodbye Gaddafi.

DA: I'm sorry, but the Palestinians are dead people walking; their own "brothers" don't want them, the world doesn't want them, and Israel can't afford to have them. I'm not making a value judgement; like the Native Americans, they're going to fade and die.

Humm... never say never... 'miracles' happened before...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... If you want to stand behind your descriptive phrase "very naughty little boy!", please support your comment about "games" and you might want to demonstrate specific weakness in my analysis?

Geez dude, calm down.

What has been said is right there for anyone to read, including your "analysis". This particular sidetrack is over on my part.

 

[Proton Soup]

As for my so called "theory" as you've specified is (still) related to my comment that "Also IMO - this posturing has created a situation where President Obama must defend all things Muslim (or at least not acknowledge) when there are problems (Fort Hood, Ground Zero Mosque, Muslim Brotherhood, underwear bomber, etc.). "?

If so - why doesn't this ""U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice told council members that the veto "should not be misunderstood to mean we support settlement activity." She added that the U.S. view is that Israeli settlements lack legitimacy. " " support my statement?

The US Ambassador made these comments - are you suggesting the Palestinians might not understand, appreciate, or believe her or President Obama's clarification of their position?

the truth is that we are simply overseeing the destruction of the palestinian people. the israelis can be accountable to us, but we never do more than just say that they shouldn't do something. meanwhile, crimes are being committed that you would be led to believe only happen in places like egypt, yet you never hear about them. http://www.mahsanmilim.com/ChildsTrialE.htm

the palestinians do not want the US as a mediator anymore, that's why they went to the UN. the longer they stick with us, the worse it gets for them.

 

[nismaratwork]

the truth is that we are simply overseeing the destruction of the palestinian people. the israelis can be accountable to us, but we never do more than just say that they shouldn't do something. meanwhile, crimes are being committed that you would be led to believe only happen in places like egypt, yet you never hear about them. http://www.mahsanmilim.com/ChildsTrialE.htm

the palestinians do not want the US as a mediator anymore, that's why they went to the UN. the longer they stick with us, the worse it gets for them.

I agree, with the caveat that their destruction is now inevitable. To be honest, it's become a "two enter, one leave" situation... they've lost in every concievable way. We've overseen a lot of death and destruction... this is just a little more.

...Oh, with the difference that regional governments are even harsher (and I'm not talking about Israel).

 

[Proton Soup]

I agree, with the caveat that their destruction is now inevitable. To be honest, it's become a "two enter, one leave" situation... they've lost in every concievable way. We've overseen a lot of death and destruction... this is just a little more.

...Oh, with the difference that regional governments are even harsher (and I'm not talking about Israel).

i'm not convinced of that. but either way, this has got to stop. otherwise, once they finish cleansing west bank and gaza, we'll have to deal with the people that still want eratz yisrael.

 

[nismaratwork]

i'm not convinced of that. but either way, this has got to stop. otherwise, once they finish cleansing west bank and gaza, we'll have to deal with the people that still want eratz yisrael.

I disagree, I think it's just a matter of securing what is already had. Why seek more when that would be counter to their own regional interests? You'd have involvement of Russia and China if they tried that, and it would alter their moral stance.


Anyway...

(I posted this is in the Libya Rapidly Changing thread):

It seems Ghaddafi (who I will now refer to as, "that son of goats") ordered ANOTHER bombing of Benghazi, and the pilot/crew punched out and crashed their jet(s?) into the desert.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/2...otests-libyas-interior-minister-quits/?hpt=T1