Are the COVID Vaccines Unusually Ineffective?

[pinball1970]

One reason why Covid also has the death count it has is because back in the Spanish -flu people were on average younger and more healthy, these days due to technological advances and much better medicine we have lots and lots of old and sick people , also there is a very high rate of obesity.Also is the takeaway from this discussion partly that having been sick creates a stronger and longer T, B cell response than simply being vaccinated without previous infection?

Very young and old and frail also died in 1918 but there was a spike 17-25 years. Google Cytokein storm Spanish flu.

 

[Dale]

Also is the takeaway from this discussion partly that having been sick creates a stronger and longer T, B cell response than simply being vaccinated without previous infection?

I don’t think that statement has any clear evidence at this point.

 

[Rive]

Very young and old and frail also died in 1918 but there was a spike 17-25 years.

Periodic resurgence of the H1N1 family is a possible explanation for this.
Of course, this would mean there was an unnoticed previous H1N1 pandemic back somewhere in 1890-95. I don't think we will ever have a proof for this, though.

 

[Evo]

So, I seem to have recovered from a breakthrough Covid infection, thanks to my neighbors across the street (the entire family had it, all 7 of them). I believe I caught it from the brother and sister-in-law of the husband of the sick family. My neighbor 2 doors down had a small Labor Day party in her large garage with fans (it was too hot to sit in the sun) well a couple there were the above mentioned brother and Sister-in-Law of the Covid family and they had been over at the sick house every day, didn't mention it, sat with us, ate with us, no masks, shook hands with us, were there for hours. About a week later I started having to clear my throat constantly, and was coughing up green pus, my lungs were fairly clear but I seemed to be getting a worsening infection of my vocal cords (Wind pipe?) and bronchial tubes, with congestion in my lungs feeling really deep and low, not bad. My voice got really raspy from all of the constant intense throat clearing, and coughing stuff up.

Fever and chills, fever and chills, headache, burning, tearing eyes, my neighbor bought me some extra strength Pataday drops for them which really helped.

I had a doctor visit scheduled for refills, but when the nurse heard me on the phone, they changed it to a telemed call.

So, had weird mostly asymptomatic Covid back in March 0f 2020, just oddly bad nausea, diarrhea, then high fever 102-103F, now appear to be having long Covid effects. Got fully Pfizer vaccinated, and now a mild, but annoying Breakthrough infection (I RARELY leave my house). I am now eligible for a booster, I need to look into how to get that.

 

[Astronuc]

So, had weird mostly asymptomatic Covid back in March 0f 2020, just oddly bad nausea, diarrhea, then high fever 102-103F, now appear to be having long Covid effects. Got fully Pfizer vaccinated, and now a mild, but annoying Breakthrough infection (I RARELY leave my house). I am now eligible for a booster, I need to look into how to get that.

Back in March, it would have been an Alpha variant or original progenitor (prior to Alpha) of SARS-Cov-2 (apparently a difference), and recently, probably Delta variant.

MOA was employed on two sets of SARS‐CoV‐2 genomes, comprising almost 30,000 and 68,000 genomes, respectively, on two days three months apart. By tracing the mutational trail, inferred from the second genome set, they were able to understand how the virus is undergoing changes in different regions and at different times. They were able to track back to the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of SARS-CoV-2.

Common ancestor​

This progenitor viral genome has three bases that differ from the Wuhan strains. The researchers think that both the Wuhan and other of the earliest genomes to be sampled were actually variants of the progenitor Coronavirus (CoV), which diverged into ν and α lineages.

Diversity pre-existing the earliest case​

The Wuhan strain underwent three consecutive mutations, α1, α2, and α3, but these are not found in the closely related CoVs, all of which have the same base at these three positions. The ν variants of the progenitor CoV do not show the other 47 variants at these positions, making them unlikely to be the ancestral lineage for the Wuhan-1 virus or other early samples. The first ν mutant was picked up almost two months after the Wuhan-1 strain.

There were multiple occurrences of the progenitor CoV, both in China and the USA, from January 2020 onwards. Synonymous progenitor CoV samples were found in many other samples collected within two weeks of the Wuhan-1 strain.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...ain-was-circulating-in-late-October-2019.aspx
https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/38/8/3046/6257226

In particular, the root of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny remains elusive (https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;) because the closely related nonhuman Coronavirus (outgroups) are more than 1,100 base differences from human SARS-CoV-2 genomes, as compared with fewer than 30 differences between human SARS-CoV-2 genomes’ sequenced early on (December 2019 and January 2020) (https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;; https://www.physicsforums.com/javascript%3A;). Without a reliable root of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny, the most recent ancestor sequence cannot be accurately reconstructed, and it is also not possible to assess the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 that existed at the time of its first outbreak. Consequently, we cannot determine if any of the coronaviruses isolated to date carry the genome of the progenitor of all human SARS-CoV-2 infections. Knowing the progenitor genome will also help determine how close the earliest patients sampled in China are to “patient zero,” that is, the first human transmission case.

 

[artis]

@Evo so are you saying you had Covid back in spring 2020, then got vaccinated (double dose Pfizer?) and now got Covid again?

 

[Evo]

@Evo so are you saying you had Covid back in spring 2020, then got vaccinated (double dose Pfizer?) and now got Covid again?

Yes. but all very mild. The long Covid, with the neurological problems I described in another thread, I believe, is troubling. There was a woman that died from contracting both Alpha and Delta Covid Simultaneously, you can catch both, I posted the paper on it. Having Covid does not give you immunity, there are papers on that, but I am too incapable of posting them right now. Get Vaccinated if you haven't, it will give you enough immunity to at least prevent infection of a severe and lethal level from the known variants. If you go out, wear masks, social distance.

 

[pinball1970]

Back in March, it would have been an Alpha variant or original progenitor (prior to Alpha) of SARS-Cov-2 (apparently a difference), and recently, probably Delta variant.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...ain-was-circulating-in-late-October-2019.aspx
https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/38/8/3046/6257226

Yes, I think Alpha came later, Jan 2021? March 2020 would have been the original Wuhan or something close, Before the variants of concern really got going?

 

[Astronuc]

Yes, I think Alpha came later, Jan 2021? March 2020 would have been the original Wuhan or something close, Before the variants of concern really got going?

Alpha variant, also known as lineage B.1.1.7 was first detected in November 2020 from a sample taken in September in the United Kingdom, and began to spread quickly by mid-December, around the same time as infections surged. But it had been in the UK for some time.

I was trying to understand comments: "The Wuhan strain underwent three consecutive mutations, α1, α2, and α3, but these are not found in the closely related CoVs, all of which have the same base at these three positions. The ν variants of the progenitor CoV do not show the other 47 variants at these positions, making them unlikely to be the ancestral lineage for the Wuhan-1 virus or other early samples. The first ν mutant was picked up almost two months after the Wuhan-1 strain.

There were multiple occurrences of the progenitor CoV, both in China and the USA, from January 2020 onwards."

 

[artis]

Yes @Evo I know how you feel, after my Covid even after the physical defects healed (like lungs) I had a neurological state that was far from optimal for about 2 months. Everything from a irregular heart beat from here to there to dull head from time to time etc ,
I think I was infected with the UK variant which I assume is the alpha in the fancy language, now 3 days ago got a single shot Pfizer.
I already said in another post here that the symptoms after my Pfizer are a bit similar to those from Covid precisely in the neurological case, because I don't have any other symptoms like fever or chills etc.

 

[StatGuy2000]

For all the COVID vaccines, it is quite common to still be able to get infected. The point of the vaccine is to reduce the risk of serious illness if one gets infected.

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I wouldn't necessarily use the word "common" to get infected -- more that it is possible to get infected, but be asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic if someone is vaccinated with any of the main COVID-19 vaccines (as opposed to experiencing potential serious illness if an unvaccinated person gets infected with the SARS-COV2 virus).

 

[StatGuy2000]

As a biostatistician who has been involved in clinical trials for almost 20 years, including in vaccine development (although not on the COVID-19 vaccines specifically), I would like to note that I'm not happy with the title of the thread (that the COVID vaccines are unusually ineffective), as I reject the premise of that title.

Vaccines serve one of two functions: (1) prevent illness among those who are vaccinated, and (2) prevent infection. So let me break this down further.

When the different COVID-19 vaccines have been developed, the main efficacy endpoints in the various clinical trials have always been whether the vaccines prevented illness (which can be ascertained during the Phase III component of the trial by looking at the percentage of those trial participants who received the vaccine ended up developing illness, as well as the level of antibodies developed among trial participants). Based on that criteria, all of the COVID-19 vaccines approved by the FDA (the mRNA vaccines like those from Pfizer and Moderna, the traditional vaccines produced by Johnson & Johnson and Astrazeneca) have all been shown to be highly effective -- up to 95% effective for Pfizer and Moderna, from what I have read in various sources online (will post these sources at a later time). And this effectiveness has been shown to carry over to both the Alpha variant (i.e. the UK variant) and the Delta variant.

The second criteria (preventing infection) is usually something that can only be assessed post-clinical trial in long-term follow-up studies. I have read in various sources that although the current vaccines are not as effective on preventing the spread/infection of the Delta variant as the original SARS-COV2 virus, it is still partially effective. What this means to me is that there is still a potential for those vaccinated to be infected (but most likely not be symptomatic) and hence spread the infection to others (although I have also read reports that fully vaccinated people who get infected tend to clear the virus much more quickly and do not spread the infection as efficiently as unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people).

I have also seen comparisons being made between COVID-19 vaccines and smallpox vaccines to judge the effectiveness, but that is not a meaningful comparison, as effectiveness needs to be judged based on the specific biological characteristics of the viruses involved.

 

[Dale]

Ideally we would have 100% of the population vaccinated and then 100% of cases would be breakthrough cases. There would still be some hospitalizations and some deaths, but the overall risk to the whole population would be substantially reduced.

I was talking with my daughter yesterday about this. The vaccines protect you, but protection is not 100%. Protection is about reducing risk, not eliminating it. Medieval knights wore armor to protect themselves, and it did a good job protecting them. But knights still died, and even some died because of their armor. No form of protection is perfect, not armor, not seatbelts, not condoms, and not vaccines. It is unreasonable to demand that a vaccine must be the only form of protection that is 100% before it is used.

 

[pinball1970]

From the UK in terms of cases, hospital cases and deaths.
Jan to July
Lockdown verses out of lock down
Low vaccination verses level much higher vaccination levels
The weather, older people more susceptible to to respiratory illness.

EDIT : when I post it squashes the peak numbers up- they should be over the two highest values.Cases

peak 68,000 55,000

Deaths

Peak 1800 209

Hospital cases

Peak 4500 1000

 

[artis]

Well it seems that only real graphic that is down is death (which is also good , probably the best of them all) but infection rate is still high. Hospital admission is lower.

about the same where I live

 

[pinball1970]

Well it seems that only real graphic that is down is death (which is also good , probably the best of them all) but infection rate is still high. Hospital admission is lower.

about the same where I live

We at a fifth of what we were in terms of hospital admissions and a tenth of the death rate. Just those numbers alone indicate the vaccine has been highly effective.
Also we have been out of lock down now for about 10 weeks now with schools back.

Cases are high but DELTA is more effective at spreading than ALPHA so relatively speaking the vaccine may well be contributing to keeping cases lower and steady.

It is hard to tease that stat out.The next step is too vaccinate 3 million children, that will take about three weeks if they get going now.

That will have an impact on spread/cases but will not really impact hospital cases or deaths.

Professor Whitty indicated 50% of school children may have already had it but that is counting from last Feb so quite a few kids to go yet.

 

[bhobba]

I am reading Peter Doherty's book on Covid right now. I think we are discovering that the Covid vaccine is one of those vaccines that work best when given in multiple doses gradually. It was written before Isreal starting giving 3rd doses for all over 12 after five months with excellent results:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/27/data-israel-covid-booster-shots-standard

As Peter mentions, it can take time for immunity to build.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Aanta]

As for the OP.
The efficacy of the vaccine is in the same ballpark as for the flu vaccination, in some cases it does not give a lasting protection.

This while these types of vaccine work different than inactivated ones.
Here the RNA will have to enter the cell to make the protein, but RNA is fragile and will deplete.
There's DNA vaccines in testing as this is written, such will give a more long lasting effect.
It is made as a plasmid, which means it will not mess with your other genes.
(Some anti vaxxers claim the current ones are "gene theraphy" which tells how little they understand = nothing whatsoever about what the current COVID vaccines are or what they do.)
Anyway, the plasmid get a translation done with the ribosome and the tRNA then start to make protein in the cytoplasm.

That booster shots are needed also for the 'old' types of vaccines is well known, this is the case both for polio and rabies vaccines for example, and not forgetting the before mentioned flu vaccine - and the latter comparison is the one which is more true now, as flue vaccine have to be repeated as new varieties turn up.

The bottom line is that the COVID vaccine is doing it's job as intended, that it would not give lasting immunity and not be 100% infectionproof was something I knew from the start. Sadly this detail was not brought to everyone's attention by the media.

 

[Dale]

The efficacy of the vaccine is in the same ballpark as for the flu vaccination

I don't think that is correct. The efficacy of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are in the 95% range. Do you have a source that shows the flu vaccines' efficacy levels are in the >90% range. I thought it was lower, but I don't have a number for that so it may be a wrong impression on my part

 

[Aanta]

Hello Dale, I could have made that sentence more clear. Just like the COVID vaccine the flu vaccine might not prevent an infection, but result in milder symptoms. There's several types also, why I used 'ballpark' as there's cell based, attenuated flu vaccine etc. For some types the efficacy is as low as 40 - 60%.
The same numbers also true for some of the alternative COVID vaccine candidates, ones that have not been met with international approval. I knew my reply was long, so it did not include such details as efficacy for vaccines from China, India, or Cuba etc. Astra Zeneca have been given 67-74% depending on study. So to be able to compare and give an answer to the question asked, I picked the best - to simplify.
So I only mentioned the best result for each type, where the general quoted efficacy figure for one vaccine against H1N1 is around 91%.

 

[artis]

The efficacy of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are in the 95% range.

Depends on which mutation of Covid we are talking about. For the latest ones on table now that number i believe is lower by 10 or thereabout.

 

[Dale]

For some types the efficacy is as low as 40 - 60%.

Yes, that was more like the range I was thinking of.

 

[pinball1970]

Yes, that was more like the range I was thinking of.

I thought ≥50% was a minimum?
As a requirement?

 

[Dale]

I thought ≥50% was a minimum?
As a requirement?

Yes, 50% was the minimum for a submission for emergency use authorization for COVID. That was not a requirement for other vaccines.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com...te-delta-variant-vaccine-immunity/6367449001/

COVID case rates in Vermont right now

Positive cases have been climbing in Vermont in recent weeks despite the state's having one of the highest vaccination rates against the virus in the U.S. Cases rose last year around this time as well as people spent more time indoors, but the state still enjoyed one of the lowest case rates in the country then.

Cases in Vermont have increased by about 55% over the last 14 days, according to a modeling report by Financial Regulation Commissioner Mike Pieciak. Some recent days have seen daily cases spike above 400 — the highest Vermont has seen since the beginning of the pandemic.

Children (5-11) have only been approved for vaccination, and 12-18 not too long ago, and the population went back to school and relaxed restrictions.

 

[EPR]

I agree. The current vaccines are highly unlikely to be the ones that will stop the pandemic.

 

[Kat-hi]

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com...te-delta-variant-vaccine-immunity/6367449001/Children (5-11) have only been approved for vaccination, and 12-18 not too long ago, and the population went back to school and relaxed restrictions.

This only emphasizes the need for therapeutics which should be stressed as highly as the vaccines were. Hopefully the Pfizer and Merck items will help.

 

[pinball1970]

I agree. The current vaccines are highly unlikely to be the ones that will stop the pandemic.

Why do you say that? The Vaccines are highly effective. The data tells us that. In the UK hospital admissions are a quarter of what they were in January and the death rate a tenth.
Vaccines PLUS measures will stop cases not the Vaccine alone. Too many measures have eased off.

 

[bhobba]

I agree. The current vaccines are highly unlikely to be the ones that will stop the pandemic.

Looks like it. But it certainly will make life close to normal with a few precautions (Pinball is right in some places they have slacked off too much). Here in Aus, we are heading towards 95% over 12 vaccinated (currently 90% first dose and rising - about 95% is the eventual prediction). With the third dose six months after the first two for Pfizer, it is 95% effective. The R0 of Delta is about 7, and 20% of our population is under 12. So let's do some, undoubtedly oversimplified, calculations. That means 75% of our people will be vaccinated with a 95% effective vaccine. They have also discovered with Pfizer, at least initially, you are 50% less likely to reinfect others if you are unlucky enough to get it. I will not take that into account for this simple calculation. The effective reinfection rate R will be 7*(1 - .75*.95) or about 2. Manageable - but measures still need to be taken to control the spread. They likely will not be too onerous - except maybe for those silly enough not to be vaccinated. This will be altered drastically if we vaccinate five and over. 6% are under five, so R then becomes .6. We have herd immunity. But do we have the will to vaccinate those five and over? I ask the question - the answer likely depends on politics outside the scope of this forum.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Dale]

I agree. The current vaccines are highly unlikely to be the ones that will stop the pandemic.

I am not sure who you are supposedly agreeing with. It makes it sound as though you think there will eventually be some more effective vaccines. I think that is extremely unlikely, like science fiction world type of unlikely.