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Stargazing Aurora Alert

  1. Feb 13, 2018 #1

    davenn

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    Hi everyone
    A large and well placed coronal hole is now in a geo-effective position.
    This will most likely produce geomagnetic storming for high latitude regions in both the northern and southern hemispheres ( 40 deg and higher)
    Keep an eye on the sky for the 15th to 17th Feb. ( with the long length of this CH, auroral activity may extend into the 18th)


    latest_aia_193.gif

    @DrClaude

    In future, if others wany to be notified, let me know and I will tag you as well :smile:


    Dave
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2018
  2. jcsd
  3. Feb 13, 2018 #2

    Wrichik Basu

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    Put me into your list. Though I don't understand too much of cosmological phenomena, but I do like to see pictures and keep information about them.
     
  4. Feb 13, 2018 #3

    fresh_42

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    I'm in. Great service!
     
  5. Feb 13, 2018 #4

    jedishrfu

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    Me too, I mean me three.
     
  6. Feb 13, 2018 #5

    Borek

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    Me four.
     
  7. Feb 13, 2018 #6

    Ibix

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    Me five.
     
  8. Feb 13, 2018 #7

    davenn

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    Thanks for the feedback guys

    I will tag all of you each time plus any others that respond with a yes from now on
    Yes, I will create a file that I can copy and paste the tagged names from

    Aurora don't happen every week and sometimes a month or more can go by without anything spectactular


    regards
    Dave
     
  9. Feb 13, 2018 #8

    mathman

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  10. Feb 13, 2018 #9

    davenn

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    yes indeed, have used it for many years :smile:
     
  11. Mar 11, 2018 #10

    davenn

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    Hi all

    the large and elongated coronal hole that produced aurora early Feb has rotated back into view again.
    It will be come geo-effective over the next 24 hours and solar wind from the hole will start reaching earth approx. 36 - 48 hours after that
    Because the CH is elongated, it should provide auroral conditions for a number of days.
    For those at high latitudes, ~ 45 deg and higher, keep an eye on the from approx. Wednesday through to Sunday

    180311fe hires.jpg


    @DrClaude
    @Wrichik Basu
    @fresh_42
    @jedishrfu
    @Borek
    @Ibix


    cheers
    Dave
     
  12. Mar 11, 2018 #11

    Borek

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    Thanks. But it is simply unjust :mad:

    Each time I check the image at http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg it shows that North America has much better forecast. Several times in the last few weeks predictions for US were such that - where they rotated to cover Europe - I would be able to see the aurora in Poland. But on our side of the pond it never goes that far south.
     
  13. Mar 11, 2018 #12

    fresh_42

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    You should try Gdansk and not always hang around in Katowice :biggrin:
     
  14. Mar 11, 2018 #13

    Borek

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    Won't help, it never got to the southern shores of Baltic. Stockholm, Helsinki at best.
     
  15. Mar 11, 2018 #14
    The reason is that the magnetic north pole is closer to North America than to Europe. On the plus side Europe has a much warmer climate for the same latitude which usually means that there is a lot more people living up north.
     
  16. Mar 12, 2018 #15

    Borek

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    Makes sense. My first thought was that it is a seasonal thing, related to the Earth's tilted axis.
     
  17. Apr 6, 2018 #16

    davenn

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    Hi all

    the large and elongated coronal hole that produced aurora mid March has rotated back into view again.
    The leading end of it is now in a geo-effective position and solar wind from the hole will start reaching earth approx. 24 - 48 hours
    Because the CH is elongated, it should provide auroral conditions for a number of days.
    For those at high latitudes, ~ 45 deg and higher, keep an eye on the from approx. Sunday through to approx. Thursday

    It produced some bright aurora last month

    180406fe hires.gif

    image credit .... https://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/latest.html

    @DrClaude
    @Wrichik Basu
    @fresh_42
    @jedishrfu
    @Borek
    @Ibix


    cheers
    Dave
     
  18. Apr 6, 2018 #17

    Borek

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    This time I have a no-cloud forecast for the next few days. Not that I expect much, typically I am around 1000 km too far South to see anything :(
     
  19. Apr 9, 2018 #18

    davenn

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    An alert has been released
    Note ... tho this is for the southern hemisphere, it is also applicable for the northern hemisphere

    SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/07
    ISSUED AT 0333UT/09 APRIL 2018
    BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

    On 10-11 April, expect the geomagnetic activity to increase to
    mostly unsettled and at times active levels in response to the
    arrival of co-rotation interaction region (CIR) and subsequent
    high speed stream (HSS) associated with a low-latitude coronal
    hole.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
    DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
    FROM 10-11 APRIL 2018
    _____________________________________________________________

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    10 Apr: Unsettled to Active
    11 Apr: Unsettled to Active

    Space Weather Services email: asfc@bom.gov.au
    Bureau of Meteorology
    PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
    Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
    tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060


    cheers
    Dave
     
  20. May 3, 2018 #19

    davenn

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    hi guys
    A large recurrent coronal hole is just becoming geoeffective
    We should start seeing the arrival of higher speed and density solar wind in the next 24 - 48 hours
    Those in northern or southern hemisphere high latitudes ~ 45 deg and higher should keep an eye on the northern or southern skies ( respectively)
    This coronal hole produced some stunning aurora on its last rotation.


    latest_aia_193.gif
    Credit ..... https://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/latest_aia_193.gif


    @DrClaude
    @Wrichik Basu
    @fresh_42
    @jedishrfu
    @Borek
    @Ibix


    cheers
    Dave
     
  21. May 3, 2018 #20

    Wrichik Basu

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    Oops, Kolkata is near tropic of cancer, so no chance for us :frown:
     
  22. May 5, 2018 #21

    davenn

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    OK the first burst of high speed solar wind has arrived

    WEAK SUDDEN IMPULSE DETECTED (10nT) IN SWS MAG DATA 05 05 18 1026UT
    Mean Mag Parameters Pre/Post Impulse:
    Pre Post Pre/Post
    Stn Unit Impulse Impulse Change
    can nT -30.2 -20.1 10.2
    clg nT -89.6 -88.5 1.1
    lrm nT 23.7 37.3 13.6
    cht nT -470.5 -458.4 12.2
    twn nT -77.9 -66.1 11.8
    tvl nT -540.8 -529.0 11.8
    cki nT -117.1 -107.5 9.6
    kdu nT 135.1 146.0 10.9

    Space Weather Services email: asfc@bom.gov.au
    Bureau of Meteorology
    PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
    Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
     
  23. May 5, 2018 #22

    davenn

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    SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/09
    ISSUED AT 0004UT/06 MAY 2018
    BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
    DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
    FROM 06-08 MAY 2018
    _____________________________________________________________

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    06 May: Active with possible Minor Storm periods
    07 May: Active with possible Minor Storm periods
    08 May: Unsettled to Active

    Space Weather Services email: asfc@bom.gov.au
    Bureau of Meteorology
    PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
    Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
    tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
     
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