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What is the probability that the hedge fund will make a profit of at least $100,000?

I own 1,000,000 dollars of stock and use 50,000 dollars of my own capital and 950,000 dollars of borrowed money. If the value of the stock falls below 950,000 dollars, then I must sell stock and repay the loan, which wipes out my $50,000 investment. It is leveraged 20:1 since borrowed money is 20 times the amount of my own capital. The daily log returns have mean of 0.05/year and stdev 0.23/year. Rates per trading day: divide by 253 and sqrt(253) respectively.

I don't know if all this information is needed. It is a probability question.

Any possible help will be greatly appreciated.

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# Homework Help: Calculate probability

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