B Can Elon Musk's BFR Project Meet Its Ambitious Timeline for Mars Colonization?

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Elon Musk's updated plan for Mars colonization includes sending two pilotless supply ships by 2022 using the BFR rocket, humorously referred to as the Big F***ing Rocket. However, concerns arise regarding the feasibility of this timeline, especially considering the Falcon Heavy's five-year delay in its launch schedule. If similar engineering resources and unexpected challenges are encountered with the BFR, the first commercial payload could realistically be pushed back to around 2037. Further analysis suggests that delays may be even more pronounced when factoring in a learning curve with a realistic coefficient. Overall, skepticism surrounds the ambitious timeline for Mars colonization.
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Elon Musk presents his updated plan for the colonization of Mars.at the International Astronautical Congress in Australia. First sending two pilotless supply ships to Mars by 2022 using a new rocket, the BFR,.

 
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gleem said:
Elon Musk presents his updated plan for the colonization of Mars.at the International Astronautical Congress in Australia. First sending two pilotless supply ships to Mars by 2022 using a new rocket, the BFR,.


The 1.4kt Falcon Heavy was flown 5 years behind initial schedule. Assuming same engineering resources are allocated to 4.5kt BFR, and amount of unexpected problems per ton of hardware is similar to Falcon Heavy, we are realistically looking for first commercial payload on BFR 15 years behind schedule, in ~2037. Actually delay is likely to be even worse if you use a learning curve estimation with realistic (less than 1) learning coefficient.
 

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