Conditional probability and time series

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I really need some help here, will appreciate any effort. I calculated time series of tidal stresses. It turned out that the probability of having positive tidal stress is 0.4 and negative - 0.6 (I counted up number of hours when the stress was positive/negative and divided by the total number of hours). I want to find out how to calculate probability of the earthquake happening during 1h around the maximum (that is when the stress is positive)? Many thanks
 
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The information seems too meager. You need more information about earthquake probability and the connection (if any) between earthquake and tidal stress.
 

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