(CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY) Which probability would you expect to be greater?

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on comparing two conditional probabilities: the likelihood of being smart given a university degree versus having a university degree given that one is smart. The consensus leans towards the belief that the first probability (a) is greater than the second (b). Participants acknowledge the lack of data, emphasizing that any conclusions are speculative. The argument is supported by the observation that the global proportion of university graduates is relatively low. Overall, the conversation highlights the complexities of interpreting conditional probabilities without empirical evidence.
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Which probability would you expect to be greater?

(a) The probability that a person is smart given that he has a university degree,

OR,

(b) the probability that a person has a university degree given that he is smart? I would say (a)>(b), but, what would you say?
 
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With no data, we're just guessing aren't we. I would guess in agreement with you because I would guess that the proportion of people with university degrees worldwide isn't that large, smart or not.
 

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