COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Vanadium 50]

Do people tend to work in the county where they live?

Not in NYC or DC, for sure. LA is another story. LA County is more populous than 41 states.

but I'm struggling to find meaning.

I don't have an answer other than "those were not the numbers I expected". I don't think they were the numbers the vaccine planners expected either.

 

[AlexCaledin]

"Salivary glands were reported as a virus reservoir for prevalent diseases such as herpes... Viral replication within the SGs seems to be an efficient dissemination strategy as the contaminated droplets expelled during coughs, sneezes, and speech are mainly composed of saliva excreta...
. . .
Our findings demonstrate that salivary glands are a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2"

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/path.5679
________________________________________________________________________
- does that mean that the usual injection vaccines may be quite ineffective against the virus replication in that main SG reservoir?

 

[Astronuc]

Do people tend to work in the county where they live?

There was a 10 year period when I commuted 47 miles one way to work in a different county, then a period of 20 years where I lived 7 miles from the office, so I worked in the same county (two companies in two different states). Then another 3 year period where I lived about 2 miles from my office, but now I work remotely, so technically work in the same county in which I live.

My parents did most of their lives.

 

[atyy]

"Salivary glands were reported as a virus reservoir for prevalent diseases such as herpes... Viral replication within the SGs seems to be an efficient dissemination strategy as the contaminated droplets expelled during coughs, sneezes, and speech are mainly composed of saliva excreta...
. . .
Our findings demonstrate that salivary glands are a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2"

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/path.5679
________________________________________________________________________
- does that mean that the usual injection vaccines may be quite ineffective against the virus replication in that main SG reservoir?

I'm not sure about the specifics of salivary glands, but that reminds me of similar discussions about the vaccine being able to reduce the severity of disease even if it does not prevent infection. Immunity that prevent reinfection is called sterilizing immunity, and is due to neutralizing antibodies reaching appropriate parts of the body.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full (includes discussion of salivary glands)
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1

 

[Astronuc]

VOX, July 6, 2021 - How Taiwan held off Covid-19, until it didn't
https://www.vox.com/videos/22561185/pandemic-playbook-taiwan-covid-19-vaccine-quarantine

In December 2019, Taiwan‘s government learned that at least seven atypical pneumonia cases had been reported in Wuhan, China. Because of Taiwan’s proximity to China and the number of back-and-forth flights between the two countries, it was expected to have the second-highest number of Covid-19 cases worldwide.

Instead, Taiwan has had one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in the world [through 2020 and into May 2021]. Thanks in part to a sophisticated, digitized health care system and a mandatory two-week quarantine for all travelers, life in Taiwan went on with relative normalcy. But then, in May 2021, a new wave of cases threatened the country’s success.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Here's a nice article in published in the journal Nature with some outlooks on the future of SARS-CoV-2, drawing from our experience with other similar viruses:

After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19
Telenti et al. Nature. Published online July 8, 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03792-w

Abstract:

There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association the virus will establish with the human population, particularly whether the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts, and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fueled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection, and reentries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here, we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions. We outline these and propose a way forward.

 

[Astronuc]

Delta variant's rise plunges Europe into uncertainty — and offers a warning to the U.S.
https://news.yahoo.com/delta-varian...and-offers-a-warning-to-the-us-090002409.html

BARCELONA — Last month, as Europe finally lifted COVID-19 restrictions, the mood was jubilant across the continent. Outdoor mask mandates and curfews were dropped, Americans were cleared to resume travel to tourist mainstays, and hopes rose that life would quickly return to normal.

The swift spread of the Delta variant, however, has upended all of that wishful thinking and is offering a warning to the U.S.

Fast becoming the dominant strain of COVID-19 across Europe, Delta is wreaking havoc in Spain, Portugal and the United Kingdom. Spain alone reported nearly 44,000 cases on Tuesday, doubling the number recorded one week ago. Trying to blunt the effect of the strain that is expected by August to account for 70 to 90 percent of all cases in the EU, countries on the continent are clamping on new restrictions to counter a mutation that is at least twice as infectious at the variety that shuttered the world in 2020.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday that patrons must now present “health passes” showing full vaccination or a negative COVID test to enter bars, cafés, restaurants, theaters or museums. Greece and Portugal have imposed similar requirements for those wishing to dine out or check into hotels. In the Netherlands, nightclubs and discos, closed for a year, opened for mere days before Prime Minister Mark Rutte ordered them shut again.

Seems like we're on another upswing.

https://news.yahoo.com/superspreader-explosions-continue-plague-pandemic-090018886.html

 

[mfb]

Germany's case counts are still low for now. One +1500 outlier with the last update (some artifact of the weekly cycle probably), but otherwise the last two weeks were below 1000 per day.

The race is vaccinating more people vs. unvaccinated people spreading the delta variant.

 

[Astronuc]

ABC News is reporting more severe COVID-19 cases in children. The Delta variant is suspected. Mississippi health officials report 7 children in ICU of whom two are on ventilators.



New York state has reported one more fatality in a child 0-9 years of age after months without a fatality in that age group. The number are small (16 fatalities), but a couple of parents lost their child.

​

Delta variant about 58% of COVID-19 cases in US: CDC​

 

[Vanadium 50]

The number are small (16 fatalities), but a couple of parents lost their child.

That is sad, but I think it needs to be placed in perspective. That's about the number of children killed by lightning every year (slightly more - lightning is 12 or 13) Do we ban outdoor activities?

Rare events make for good "Man Bites Dog" attention-grabbing stories. They do not make for good public policy.

Since I have the floor...let me also rant against the delta bugbear. I would argue that there is no action that should be taken for delta that shouldn't also be taken for "regular". India's problem with Demon Delta wasn't that it was delta. It was that their vaccination rate was under 5% at the start of their wave.

While I hate to say good things about Canada in general and Ontario in particular, Ontario is half fully vaccinated and something like 80+% of those eligible have received at least one dose. Covid there is mostly delta, and deaths are down to ~5/day. (Down from a peak or 60-65). That's 1.6% of the total deaths - on par with Parkinson's.

Vaccinate and delta will not be a problem.

 

[jack action]

In California, unvaccinated people are required to wear masks in indoor public settings and businesses. Scientifically speaking, I don't get the logic behind this policy.

As of now, a vaccine is easily available, so the only excuse for not being vaccinated is that you don't want to. People who are vaccinated are protected, so unvaccinated people take a risk that only concerns themselves. To me, that feels pretty much like the best democratic referendum you can have.

But even assuming the state is concerned with everyone's health (vaccinated or not), then shouldn't the mask be mandatory for everyone, since vaccinated people can still most likely spread Covid? Even worst, since more of them would be asymptomatic compared to unvaccinated people getting Covid, wouldn't there be more of them unknowingly spreading the coronavirus? If one had to choose between the two groups, one might even argue that it would be better if vaccinated people wear masks.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

In California, unvaccinated people are required to wear masks in indoor public settings and businesses. Scientifically speaking, I don't get the logic behind this policy.

As of now, a vaccine is easily available, so the only excuse for not being vaccinated is that you don't want to. People who are vaccinated are protected, so unvaccinated people take a risk that only concerns themselves. To me, that feels pretty much like the best democratic referendum you can have.

The government can require people to wear safety belts in cars even though not wearing a safety belt largely affects only the non-wearer's safety.

Furthermore, in the context of pandemics, there are costs to the rest of society if large numbers of people get sick. As seen in California during winter 2020, large outbreaks of COVID-19 can quickly fill emergency rooms at hospitals, which can prevent or deter others from getting care. Outbreaks of disease also have major economic consequences if they necessitate quarantine of exposed individuals or shutdowns of businesses.

But even assuming the state is concerned with everyone's health (vaccinated or not), then shouldn't the mask be mandatory for everyone, since vaccinated people can still most likely spread Covid? Even worst, since more of them would be asymptomatic compared to unvaccinated people getting Covid, wouldn't there be more of them unknowingly spreading the coronavirus? If one had to choose between the two groups, one might even argue that it would be better if vaccinated people wear masks.

According to the CDC: "A growing body of evidence indicates that people fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) are less likely to have asymptomatic infection or to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Studies are underway to learn more about the benefits of Johnson & Johnson/Janssen vaccine. However, the risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated as long as there is continued community transmission of the virus." (see also this article from GAVI). Yes, the vaccine is not perfect, but neither are masks. Both can do a good job of protecting individuals for being infected and reduce transmission of the virus.

 

[jack action]

Yes, the vaccine is not perfect, but neither are masks. Both can do a good job of protecting individuals for being infected and reduce transmission of the virus.

So, from a scientific point of view, everyone should wear it?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So, from a scientific point of view, everyone should wear it?

At some number the notion of herd immunity kicks in. From what I gather, if you have 80% or greater protection through masks or vaccinations, then you won't have a pandemic.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Scientifically speaking, I don't get the logic behind this policy.

They aren't listening to scientists, so must be punished.

 

[PeroK]

At some number the notion of herd immunity kicks in. From what I gather, if you have 80% or greater protection through masks or vaccinations, then you won't have a pandemic.

In the UK we have 86% of the adult population vaccinated at least once and 66% twice. Our vaccination programme is winding down (we've done fewer than a million jabs this week). But, the cases are soaring. They have doubled since the start of July (from 25,000 per day steadily rising to over 50,000 today). They were down at 2,000 per day until the Delta variant took off in late May.

On the evidence of the UK the voluntary vaccination programme achievable in democratic societies is unable to prevent a pandemic (only lessen its impact). I.e. herd immunity if we ever attain it will be partly achieved by a significant proportion having achieved immunity through having been infected with the virus itself.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

In the UK we have 86% of the adult population vaccinated at least once and 66% twice. Our vaccination programme is winding down (we've done fewer than a million jabs this week). But, the cases are soaring. They have doubled since the start of July (from 25,000 per day steadily rising to over 50,000 today). They were down at 2,000 per day until the Delta variant took off in late May.

On the evidence of the UK the voluntary vaccination programme achievable in democratic societies is unable to prevent a pandemic (only lessen its impact). I.e. herd immunity if we ever attain it will be partly achieved by a significant proportion having achieved immunity through having been infected with the virus itself.

66% vaccinated is not sufficient. And the delta variant is believed to be far more contagious than the original strains.

We don't know that having the virus prevents reinfection later. Having the virus appears to prevent re-infection for some period of time but we don't know if that is months or years or decades. As I understand it, there are Corona Viruses [the so-called common cold] that you can catch year after year.

In the Seattle area we are over 80% fully vaccinated. But of course some rural areas are seeing a big increase in cases.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

LA County is having a big surge in cases and 100% of those hospitalized are not vaccinated or not fully vaccinated.

All COVID patients in LA County-run hospitals are unvaccinated, official says​

https://abc7.com/unvaccinated-covid19-los-angeles-county-hospitalizations/10887037/

 

[PeroK]

66% vaccinated is not sufficient. And the delta variant is believed to be far more contagious than the original strains.

That's as good as it gets! There is no point in holding out hope for herd immunity if it is practically unachievable. Whatever was the case for the original strains is largely irrelevant now that Delta is on the loose.

I notice that the US numbers have double since the start of the month, albeit from a modest 17,000 per day to 37,000 per day. There is no chance of achieving herd immunity in the US with your level of opposition to vaccination.

 

[BillTre]

Here's My Rant:

The "R" value is not is constant.
It reflects how likely an infection is likely to be passed onto a new host before the first victim is no longer contagious
A new variant, if it is a more effective infecter, will have a different (higher) "R" value, because it will more likely be able to infect a new host.
If there was a low "R" value with variant 1 (which infected 20% of the people, it was within 10 feet of, for at least 5 minute periods of time) predominant in the population, but then a more efficiently infecting variant 2 showed up (which infected 50% of the people, it was within 10 feet of, for at least 5 minute periods of time), then the "R" value for total infection would start to become larger (more likely to infect) as variant 2 becomes more common in the population of infecting viruses.

If there is a large population of unimmunized people (making up a large population of susceptible hosts), a variant with a great capacity to infect, could spread among the population, even if it was not able to spread among the immunized.
If that unimmunized population was in their own social bubble (a sub-population for purposes of details of virus transmission), perhaps with its own (less isolating) social standards of behavior, then that population could have its own higher "R" value, because their social setting is skewed toward interactions with similarly poor contributors to a lower "R" value.

 

[PeroK]

If that unimmunized population was in their own social bubble (a sub-population for purposes of details of virus transmission) ...

This is one flaw in the UK government's plan. Young people not only socialise more, but largely socialise with each other. Likewise, a class of secondary school children is 100% unvaccinated. It doesn't really matter how many adults are vaccinated if 30 children are in a class together.

 

[atyy]

This is one flaw in the UK government's plan. Young people not only socialise more, but largely socialise with each other. Likewise, a class of secondary school children is 100% unvaccinated. It doesn't really matter how many adults are vaccinated if 30 children are in a class together.

Maybe it's because they think children are at a low enough risk of having severe disease? And there is not likely to be any recommendation soon to vaccinate children under 12? So the main question is whether opening up should wait for vaccination of those in the 12-17 age group (for which vaccination is approved, but still not recommended in the UK, except for vulnerable groups - there's a similar policy in Germany)?

 

[PeroK]

Maybe it's because they think children are at a low enough risk of having severe disease? And there is not likely to be any recommendation soon to vaccinate children under 12? So the main question is whether opening up should wait for vaccination of those in the 12-17 age group (for which vaccination is approved, but still not recommended in the UK, except for vulnerable groups - there's a similar policy in Germany)?

I would vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. What we were doing, in other words. I don't understand why we've stopped.

If I was under 18, I'd want the vaccine, rather than taking a chance with the virus.

The current policy entails millions of children getting the virus. That must be more dangerous than vaccinations.

 

[PeterDonis]

If I was under 18, I'd want the vaccine, rather than taking a chance with the virus.

I'm not sure I would, in that position.

The current policy entails millions of children getting the virus. That must be more dangerous than vaccinations.

I'm not sure the virus is more dangerous to children under 18 than the vaccines are. Children under 18 are the lowest risk group for the virus (assuming no other health conditions--obviously parents should be looking at their particular child's risk profile, not just assuming an average one), but it's not clear to me that they are the lowest risk group for vaccine side effects. Since the side effects include life threatening ones (blood clots) and ones that can cause long-term issues (myocarditis), I don't think it's a slam dunk that we should just vaccinate everyone, particularly not for children under 18.

 

[PeterDonis]

I don't understand why we've stopped.

Because it's not "we" who are "vaccinating". It is individual people making the choice whether or not to get vaccinated. We have reached a point now where the vast majority of people who have no reservations about getting vaccinated, have gotten vaccinated; so now we are into the stage where we should expect the rate to slow down because now the people left are the ones who do have reservations.

 

[Astronuc]

BBC reports UK daily Covid cases pass 50,000 for first time since January
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57867990

There were 51,870 cases recorded - the highest figure since 15 January - and 49 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Earlier, England's chief medical officer warned hospital admissions could hit "scary numbers"

Prof Chris Whitty said the number of people in hospital with Covid was doubling roughly every three weeks.

 

[JT Smith]

I apologize if this question has already been answered in this long and active thread. What I am very curious about is how being vaccinated affects the odds of someone who has a mild or asymptomatic case of COVID developing long COVID. Are there any good data on this? It's an important question I think.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I don't think it's a slam dunk that we should just vaccinate everyone, particularly not for children under 18.

So I played a game with demographics. I took the US CDC data on vaccinations and on the age distribution of Covid deaths and convolved them.

I used a protection factor of 4 for one dose and 20 for fully vaccinated. I realize that this is the protection from contracting and doesn't include the reduction in severity.

With half the US population fully vaccinated, the US has achieved 75% of the protection it will ever get. Tne reason is that the vaccination rate is higher for the more at-risk. For the 75+ group, it's at 88%. It's even higher for the 65-74 group at 91%, which suggests that some of the reason the 88% isn't even higher is because for some reason these people can't be vaccinated.

If we vaccinated 100% of the under-18 population, and the Covid rates are twice what they are today over the next 12 months, how many under-18 lives would we save? About 220. The number of 15-year olds or younger? About 35. This is below fire, below drug overdoses, and well below drowning.

To my mind, it makes more sense to concentrate the efforts where there is risk. That would be the rural poor and African-Americans.

 

[PeroK]

Because it's not "we" who are "vaccinating". It is individual people making the choice whether or not to get vaccinated. We have reached a point now where the vast majority of people who have no reservations about getting vaccinated, have gotten vaccinated; so now we are into the stage where we should expect the rate to slow down because now the people left are the ones who do have reservations.

There are plenty of people in the UK who want the second jab now, but the government is making them wait the full 12 weeks, leaving them exposed to the Delta variant. Also, there must be plenty of families who would like their children vaccinated, but that also is disallowed by the government.

And certainly many head teachers want children to have the option to be vaccinated.

Ironically, the government is planning to require health and care-home staff to be vaccinated.

 

[PeterDonis]

There are plenty of people in the UK who want the second jab now, but the government is making them wait the full 12 weeks

Isn't that required to get full protection?