COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[atyy]

There are plenty of people in the UK who want the second jab now, but the government is making them wait the full 12 weeks, leaving them exposed to the Delta variant.

I thought the policy was changed about a month ago because of the Delta variant, to try to get as many second jabs in before opening up?
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-15/nhs-urges-people-to-bring-their-second-covid-jab-forward

 

[PeroK]

Isn't that required to get full protection?

The latest news is that the JCVI, who advises the government on vaccinations, has changed its policy and want to reduce it to 8 weeks. That's in an effort to get more people fully vaccinated before Monday, when the remaining restrictions are lifted.

Given that the date of 19th July has been known for months, it's absurd that it's taken them until the last minute to realize this.

We could have given millions of people the second jab in the past four weeks in preparation for the grand reopening on the 19th.

Yes, that might trade some long-term benefits for short-term term protection against the Delta. It's taken the JCVI until two days ago to come to this decision. It's seems obvious to me that we've frittered away an opportunity over the past four weeks.

 

[PeroK]

PS to put it another way: if we don't want to vaccinate under 18s and we want an 8-12 week delay between first and second jabs, then the date of July 19th had to be postponed.

 

[PeroK]

I thought the policy was changed about a month ago because of the Delta variant, to try to get as many second jabs in before opening up?

That's just recent. You can look at the figures for July. There have been lots of people calling for this change. It's only just happening at the last minute.

 

[PeroK]

I thought the policy was changed about a month ago because of the Delta variant, to try to get as many second jabs in before opening up?
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-07-15/nhs-urges-people-to-bring-their-second-covid-jab-forward

The figures are here:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

If we look at first and second totals, we see that there has been an 11-week delay between the two. E.g. 15.3 million people had the first jab by Feb 14th and 15.5 million had both jabs by May 2nd.

There were 35.5 million first jabs by May 9th and that's where we are now. That's a 10-week delay. To get it down to 8 weeks we'd need to vaccinate another 2.5 million. That's hasn't happened.

Instead, we have done only 0.6 million second jabs this week. Which corresponds to the numbers 10-12 weeks ago.

Our vaccination capacity is about 3 million jabs per week. We last did that on the week ending June 20th. Since then the numbers have been: 2.5, 2.0, 1.7 million. And only 0.9 million so far this week.

My point in a nutshell is that is potential vaccine capacity gone to waste. We could have given another 3-4 million second jabs in the past four weeks.

 

[atyy]

That's just recent. You can look at the figures for July. There have been lots of people calling for this change. It's only just happening at the last minute.

I thought they decided to do this in May or June?

 

[mfb]

If we vaccinated 100% of the under-18 population, and the Covid rates are twice what they are today over the next 12 months, how many under-18 lives would we save? About 220. The number of 15-year olds or younger? About 35.

Death is not the only negative outcome. How many would get some long-term health problems? That's an important number to consider before we can come to any conclusion.

 

[PeroK]

I thought they decided to do this in May or June?

First, it says reduce to 8 weeks for the over 50's and vulnerable. But, the vast majority of them have been long double jabbed. Those are not significant numbers of people now. Only a few coming forward belatedly.

Second, if you look at the numbers, there has been no noticeable increase in second doses to use the spare capacity.

Third, although Johnson said he was worried about the Delta variant, he didn't take any decisive measures: he neither postponed lockdown easing, nor accelerating the vaccine schedule.

 

[PeroK]

There is some interesting data on this news page showing how few young people in England and the Netherlands have been vaccinated. The Dutch have recently opened up and infections have soared.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...2355210?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

 

[Vanadium 50]

Here is the Netherlands data. I did my bets to align the top (deaths) with bottom (cases)

End of March is when they started vaccinating in earnest.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Death is not the only negative outcome. How many would get some long-term health problems? That's an important number to consider before we can come to any conclusion.

If you are talking about known heal;th problems, do you have anything that shows any where the young are more susceptible?

If you are talking about unknown health problems that might be discovered later, a) how do you make policy around that and b) how do you know this preferentially affects children and not the people who seem most affected by Covid?

 

[vela]

I apologize if this question has already been answered in this long and active thread. What I am very curious about is how being vaccinated affects the odds of someone who has a mild or asymptomatic case of COVID developing long COVID. Are there any good data on this? It's an important question I think.

I don't think there is a good data on this yet. I recall hearing on an interview just a day or two ago your question, and the person being interviewed (the surgeon general, I think) said they don't know the answer to that question yet.

 

[atyy]

End of March is when they started vaccinating in earnest.

https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/vaccionation-coverage-is-rising-while-data-is-increasingly-comprehensive
"The resulting figures show that more than 95% of people over 65 have now received at least one vaccination in 134 of the 352 municipalities."

https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/deelname-covid-19-vaccinatie-in-nederland
Figure 1 shows the percentages for one dose.
Figure 2 shows the percentages for full doses.

For the Delta variant, although one dose provides only about 30% protection against symptomatic infection, it provides about 60-70% protection against severe disease.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

 

[russ_watters]

If we vaccinated 100% of the under-18 population, and the Covid rates are twice what they are today over the next 12 months, how many under-18 lives would we save? About 220. The number of 15-year olds or younger? About 35. This is below fire, below drug overdoses, and well below drowning.

How many people over 18 would it save? That's a really hard number to predict, but I suspect it is larger.

To my mind, it makes more sense to concentrate the efforts where there is risk. That would be the rural poor and African-Americans.

I agree. And we're at the point where going door-to-door with vans might help. But opening-up vaccinations at existing clinics to younger kids takes roughly zero effort. Even sending the vaccines to schools takes very little effort (I bet it's 100x cheaper than going door to door in a rural area). So we might as well do it too.

 

[Evo]

https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/vaccionation-coverage-is-rising-while-data-is-increasingly-comprehensive
"The resulting figures show that more than 95% of people over 65 have now received at least one vaccination in 134 of the 352 municipalities."

https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/deelname-covid-19-vaccinatie-in-nederland
Figure 1 shows the percentages for one dose.
Figure 2 shows the percentages for full doses.

For the Delta variant, although one dose provides only about 30% protection against symptomatic infection, it provides about 60-70% protection against severe disease.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

I'm somewhat worried because my direct flight from New York to Edinburgh has been canceled, and now I have to go to Amsterdam and switch to a plane there with people from Amsterdam.

From the current CDC website

COVID-19 in the Netherlands
​

Level 4: Very High Level of COVID-19 in the Netherlands

Key Information for Travelers to the Netherlands​

• Avoid travel to the Netherlands.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/covid-4/coronavirus-netherlands

 

[Vanadium 50]

How many people over 18 would it save?

Would what save? Vaccinating the under-18 or the unvaccinated over-18's?

But opening-up vaccinations at existing clinics to younger kids takes roughly zero effort.

Are you sure you're not my boss? He feels prioritization means "do everything first!" Whom do we prioritize?

 

[atyy]

Level 4: Very High Level of COVID-19 in the Netherlands

Key Information for Travelers to the Netherlands​

• Avoid travel to the Netherlands.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/covid-4/coronavirus-netherlands

If you can't avoid the travel, one thing I might add to the CDC's recommendations is that the mask should be a medical/surgical mask.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

My GF was fully vaccinated months ago but it looks like she might have Covid. It came on fast. High temp etc. She couldn't get tested today but will tomorrow. I'm not aware of anything else going around.

 

[russ_watters]

Would what save? Vaccinating the under-18 or the unvaccinated over-18's?

Vaccinating the under-18, saving the over-18.

Are you sure you're not my boss?

I decline to answer that.

He feels prioritization means "do everything first!" Whom do we prioritize?

I propose we do one and un-restrict the other. Again, simply allowing the younger to get vaccinated to get vaccinated takes roughly zero effort. It barely even qualifies as a "do". But sure, if you want to force that: I few have $X available I propose we use $.01X to open vaccination to younger kids and the rest to fund door-to-door vaccinations. But if by "prioritize" you mean I should rank them so we should do one and not the other, I say...well...that's not how it works.

 

[PeroK]

I'm somewhat worried because my direct flight from New York to Edinburgh has been canceled, and now I have to go to Amsterdam and switch to a plane there with people from Amsterdam.

From the current CDC website

COVID-19 in the Netherlands​

​

Level 4: Very High Level of COVID-19 in the Netherlands

Key Information for Travelers to the Netherlands​

• Avoid travel to the Netherlands.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/covid-4/coronavirus-netherlands

The UK can't be far behind the Netherlands. We already have 50,000 positive tests per day; 100,000 is almost inevitable and 200,000 is possible.

Now may not be a good time to be traveling to and from the UK.

Edinburgh is overcrowded in July and August and the Festival is overrated!

 

[mfb]

If you are talking about known heal;th problems, do you have anything that shows any where the young are more susceptible?

If you are talking about unknown health problems that might be discovered later, a) how do you make policy around that and b) how do you know this preferentially affects children and not the people who seem most affected by Covid?

More susceptible than what? More than zero? Long COVID in children for example is a documented phenomenon, we don't have good frequency estimates yet but it's not negligible. Looking at deaths only is missing that completely.

Germany's new case numbers go up as well now, but it's nowhere at the level of its neighbors. +1500/day in a population of 80 million.

The Netherlands have +10,000/day in a population of 18 million! What are people doing there?
Belgium has wildly varying +1000 to +2000/day in a population of 11 million.
France has +10,000/day in a population of 70 million.
Switzerland has +500/day in a population of 8 million.
Austria has +300/day in a population of 9 million.
Denmark has +1000/day in a population of 6 million

Czechia has +150-200/day in a population of 11 million. That's similar to Germany
Poland only reports +100/day (population 40 million)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

My GF, who is vaccinated, got sick and has tested positive for Covid. She did not get terribly sick and is already on the mend. But she has to isolate for another week. She had been on vacation and had to cancel our weekend plans last weekend because she wasn't feeling well. Then she got sick sick. So I hadn't seen her since she was exposed.

CDC guidelines
I think or know I had COVID-19, and I had symptoms
You can be around others after:
10 days since symptoms first appeared and
24 hours with no fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and
Other symptoms of COVID-19 are improving*

*Loss of taste and smell may persist for weeks or months after recovery and need not delay the end of isolation

Most people do not require testing to decide when they can be around others; however, if your healthcare provider recommends testing, they will let you know when you can resume being around others based on your test results.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/end-home-isolation.html

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/

As of July 19, less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50% in 38 of 42 reporting states, including 14 states where less than a third of Black people have received one or more doses. Similarly, less than half of Hispanic people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 34 of 40 reporting states, including 10 states where less than a third have received at least one dose. At least half of White people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 17 of 42 states. The rate remains below 50% in the remaining 25 states but falls below a third in only one state, Idaho. At least half of Asian people have received one or more doses in more than half of reporting states (32 of 39).

Discussion
Together, these data show that, despite recent trends suggesting improving equity in COVID-19 vaccination patterns and a recent narrowing in the gap between vaccination rates for White and Hispanic people, disparities are persisting. Less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in nearly all states reporting data, including a number of states where less than a third have received a vaccine. These lower vaccination rates among Black and Hispanic people leave them at increased risk for coronavirus, particularly as the Delta variant spreads, potentially leading to widening disparities going forward and limiting the nation’s recovery.

 

[Keith_McClary]

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/

As of July 19, less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50% in 38 of 42 reporting states

We don't have this issue in Canada, because governments don't keep race/ethnicity statistics.

 

[mfb]

I don't think setting fixed thresholds (like 50%) and then counting states is a good approach for numbers that are (a) highly correlated between states and (b) in the general range of 50% for the population average. It tells us almost nothing how large the difference actually is. Is it 53% vs. 46%? 80% vs. 40%?
Just compare the numbers directly.

 

[AlexCaledin]

• Researchers studied cells collected by nasal swabs at the moment of diagnosis for both mild and severe COVID-19 patients
• Cells taken from patients who went on to develop severe disease had a muted antiviral response compared to those who went on to develop mild disease

https://scitechdaily.com/early-anti...may-determine-mild-severe-course-of-covid-19/
_____________________________________________________________

- is it possible that, in severe cases, some viruses get inhaled straight into the lungs, bypassing the nasal defence?

 

[Astronuc]

- is it possible that, in severe cases, some viruses get inhaled straight into the lungs, bypassing the nasal defence?

If one breathes (inhales) through the mouth rather than the nose, then yes. How often does one breathe through the mouth instead of the nose? For example, when one walks vigorously, or engages in physical activity, how does one breathe? When talking in a conversation, speaking or singing, how often does one breathe through the mouth instead of the nose?

 

[Astronuc]

A Coronavirus variant discovered in Colombia is showing up among patients in South Florida, increasing infections and putting health officials on alert as calls grow louder for unvaccinated individuals to get inoculated.

Carlos Migoya, CEO of Jackson Health System, told WPLG in Miami earlier this week that the B.1.621 variant has accounted for about 10% of Coronavirus patients, trailing behind delta, the now dominant variant in the United States that's been ravaging the nation's unvaccinated, and the gamma variant. B.1.621 has yet to receive a Greek-letter designation as more prominent variants have.

https://news.yahoo.com/another-coronavirus-variant-reached-florida-192854583.html

Migoya told the news station that he speculated B.1.621 is likely rising in South Florida because of international travel between Colombia and Miami, which serves as a gateway to Latin America.

The earliest documented samples of B.1.621 were noted in January, and at least 16 cases have been recently reported in the United Kingdom, where health officials have noted that the majority of cases linked to the variant were the result of international travel.

International travel (by infected people) was a principal method of transmission December, 2019 - March, 2020.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-mother-has-been-living-in-her-teen-daughters-icu-room-for-days-praying-she-survives-covid-19/ar-AAMHfax

Agness Velasquez spoke with CNN on a video call from the ICU room at Broward Health Medical Center where her 15-year-old daughter, Paulina, has been battling Covid-19 for about 10 days.

 

[mfb]

Some people in Missouri are getting vaccinated against Covid-19 in secret, doctor says. They fear backlash from loved ones who oppose the vaccines

Missouri is at 41% full vaccination (51% for 18+) and fifth in new daily cases in the US.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Some plots - let's just not pick states filled with people we don't like and tut-tut at them.

(The outlier is CT)

Draw your own conclusions,