COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Grand Princess cruise ship hit by Coronavirus will dock Monday in California

USA TODAY•March 8, 2020

The Grand Princess cruise ship will begin to allow guests to disembark Monday after 21 people aboard tested positive for coronavirus on Friday.

Princess Cruises announced early Sunday it had been informed by state and local officials that the cruise, off the coast of California, would be able to dock in the Port of Oakland on Monday, though an exact time was not available, cruise line public relations director Negin Kamali told USA TODAY.

Guests who "require acute medical treatment and hospitalization" will be first to disembark. Kamali said it was "unclear" if other passengers would also be allowed off the ship Monday, or if they would have to wait further.

"California residents will go to a federally operated facility within California for testing and isolation, while non-Californians will be transported by the federal government to facilities in other states," read a statement provided by Kamali. "Crew will be quarantined and treated aboard the ship."

[ . . . ]

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https://news.yahoo.com/grand-princess-cruise-remains-limbo-135510647.html

 

[Jarvis323]

Go to the website of WHO, NHS, NSW, CDC, or whatever healthcare agency is appropriate for your locale, and you'll see the same 'gossip' being repeated.
What you're doing is putting your layman's reading of a study over the expertise of medical professionals.
It's one thing to say you don't understand why they are all not recommending the use of masks for general public, or why they're saying there's no evidence for the usefulness of masks in limiting the spread of the infection outside of specific contexts, and another to decide you know better anyway because you've done your own research.

They aren't saying masks are not effective. They are saying that misusing masks takes away from their effectiveness (worst negligence conceivably making it worse) and they are implying that the general public is not capable of using them correctly (I guess overall). But their main point, and why they are stressing this so much, is that they are desperately trying to conserve masks for those most in need (nurses, doctors, etc.). I.e. if you are capable of figuring out how to wear a mask correctly, then it will help you, but you should forgo the masks unless absolutely necessary in order to save them for others who need them more. There are lots of online videos showing how to use them. It takes about 3 minutes. So if you have one, and have decided your risk is high in a certain situation (e.g. elderly going to get groceries), you should absolutely use it, and learn how to wear it correctly before you do.

 

[PeterDonis]

The Wuhan lockdown was implemented January 23 when all of China had 830 confirmed cases.

Since the number of confirmed cases in China has grown by roughly a factor of 100 since January 23, it would not seem like the lockdown did much good.

 

[jedishrfu]

Another recent article from propublica on the virus from a reporter who lived through SARS and reported on Ebola with some good advice.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...estions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus

 

[atyy]

Since the number of confirmed cases in China has grown by roughly a factor of 100 since January 23, it would not seem like the lockdown did much good.

That is not correct. It would have grown by far more if not for the lock down. The number of new cases per day is decreasing. This does not happen without some intervention.

 

[PeterDonis]

The number of new cases per day is decreasing. This does not happen without some intervention.

It does not happen without some kind of change in the circumstances. But that change could be individual people taking common sense precautions because they know about something they didn't before. I don't think we know how much of the change was due to that vs. the top-down government interventions.

To be clear, I'm not saying the government should do nothing. Since we the people have given the government a number of jobs, including disseminating accurate information, coordinating testing and procuring test kits, analyzing samples, giving good advice to people on what precautions they should take, analyzing all of the available data and trying to make predictions, giving good advice to localities on what actions they should take, etc., obviously the government needs to do those jobs, and we should hold the government accountable for how well it does them.

 

[Haorong Wu]

Since the number of confirmed cases in China has grown by roughly a factor of 100 since January 23, it would not seem like the lockdown did much good.

This is misleading. The cases continue to grow because the incubation period is 14 days. From the curve, we can clearly see that the speed of increase droped after 14 days.

Also, an important change happened on February 13, that the leader of Wuhan is replaced by Ying Yong. The former leader of Wuhan did not implement the lock down correctly. Some people were still hanging around outside. The strict lock down started after Ying Yong take over the government.

A research led by Zhong Nanshan reveals that if the lockdown is delayed by 5 days, the scale of the outbreak would be larged by 3 times while if it was lock down 5 days earlier, we may cut half of the cases.

Here is a table in that research

 

[PeterDonis]

A research led by Zhong Nanshan

Do you have a link to the complete paper?

 

[PeterDonis]

The cases continue to grow because the incubation period is 14 days.

14 days seems like the high end of a pretty wide range of 2 - 14 days (although some outliers with longer incubation periods have been reported); the mean appears to be somewhere between 3 and 6 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

 

[chemisttree]

Go to the website of WHO, NHS, NSW, CDC, or whatever healthcare agency is appropriate for your locale, and you'll see the same 'gossip' being repeated.
What you're doing is putting your layman's reading of a study over the expertise of medical professionals.
It's one thing to say you don't understand why they are all not recommending the use of masks for general public, or why they're saying there's no evidence for the usefulness of masks in limiting the spread of the infection outside of specific contexts, and another to decide you know better anyway because you've done your own research.

When I see medical experts saying things like we have a strategic reserve of masks and other PPE for use by healthcare providers in one breath and then say those same masks are useless for the general public, I can spot the lie easily. When I see medical experts demonstrate the improper use of an N95 (upside down and inside out) and conclude they are useless while reporting that front line nursing staff at The University of Nebraska Medical Center use N95 masks as a component of their basic uniform, I can spot the lie easily.

And, by the way, I have used PPE every day of my professional career as a research synthetic chemist. I taught proper use and selection of PPE for many years. I have written numerous protocols for safe handling of highly carcinogenic compounds, explosives, radioactive, volatile radioactive materials and safe handling of nerve agents.

I am no layman.

 

[mfb]

But that change could be individual people taking common sense precautions because they know about something they didn't before.

People in Wuhan were well aware of the situation by Jan 23. People in Italy knew about their outbreaks as soon as they were detected, but it still spread more (and is still spreading). A lack of awareness of the situation isn't the problem. Sure, there are still some people who claim all this isn't a concern, but they will do that no matter what happens.

14 days seems like the high end of a pretty wide range of 2 - 14 days (although some outliers with longer incubation periods have been reported); the mean appears to be somewhere between 3 and 6 days.

Wuhan kept adding restrictions as far as I know. They made it look like a ghost town. I don't have a detailed timeline, however.

 

[atyy]

It does not happen without some kind of change in the circumstances. But that change could be individual people taking common sense precautions because they know about something they didn't before. I don't think we know how much of the change was due to that vs. the top-down government interventions.

To be clear, I'm not saying the government should do nothing. Since we the people have given the government a number of jobs, including disseminating accurate information, coordinating testing and procuring test kits, analyzing samples, giving good advice to people on what precautions they should take, analyzing all of the available data and trying to make predictions, giving good advice to localities on what actions they should take, etc., obviously the government needs to do those jobs, and we should hold the government accountable for how well it does them.

Well, there were 23 passengers that were let off the Diamond Princess without testing. Why didn't those passengers apply common sense and refuse to leave until they had been tested?
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/22/national/coronavirus-chiba-kumamoto/#.XmXNkkpS-Uk

 

[jim mcnamara]

Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China
Published paper: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/571/pdf

[abstract]

Abstract: We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel Coronavirus outbreaks
outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from
imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases
in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with
China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of
entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country
(expressed by the local reproduction number $R_loc$). We found that in countries with low connectivity
to China but with relatively high $R_loc$, the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of
outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel
restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low $R_loc$ benefit the most from policies that further
reduce $R_loc$. Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments
were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated
how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of
cases in China is growing.

 

[DennisN]

when the scientific research suggests 40 to 70% of the population is likely to get the virus

What I have heard is that there is a potential that 40 to 70% of the population could get infected by the virus. And that controlling the spread is up to us and our societies.

Here's what I am going to do after reading the WHO advice and some suggestions in this thread:

* Wash hands more often and thoroughly. I'm also going to buy some alcoholbased washing solution.
* Avoid touching face with hands and practice respiratory hygiene
* Maintain social distancing and avoid large crowds.
* Buy some more (a little stock) of the things I personally need (food, medications etc) so I don't have to go to stores as many times as usual
* Keep being informed and updated on the development of the virus and containment efforts.

Here in Sweden we have about 200 verified infections, and some schools where there have been infected cases are now temporarily closed.

I'm also thinking of getting a flu shot when I can, because I quite easily get colds and flulike symptoms during the winters.

Edit: Also, I'd like to add that the main symptoms to look out for according to WHO are fever, cough and difficulty breathing.

 

[atyy]

It does not happen without some kind of change in the circumstances. But that change could be individual people taking common sense precautions because they know about something they didn't before. I don't think we know how much of the change was due to that vs. the top-down government interventions.

To be clear, I'm not saying the government should do nothing. Since we the people have given the government a number of jobs, including disseminating accurate information, coordinating testing and procuring test kits, analyzing samples, giving good advice to people on what precautions they should take, analyzing all of the available data and trying to make predictions, giving good advice to localities on what actions they should take, etc., obviously the government needs to do those jobs, and we should hold the government accountable for how well it does them.

Or to give another example: Why did this Chinese couple give false information about their whereabouts, hindering tracing of close contacts for monitoring and quarantining if necessary?
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...uple-charged-infectious-diseases-act-12480170

 

[kadiot]

Is it safe to use the pool in condominium, hotels, resorts? Since it can be transmitted thru respiratory droplets?

 

[Haorong Wu]

14 days seems like the high end of a pretty wide range of 2 - 14 days (although some outliers with longer incubation periods have been reported); the mean appears to be somewhere between 3 and 6 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

I am sorry I made a mistake. In China, people usually say the incubation period is 14 days, which is not precise.

The paper is here: http://jtd.amegroups.com/article/view/36385

I did not read it. I only read a report introducing it in Chinese.

 

[chemisttree]

I'm also thinking of getting a flu shot when I can, because I quite easily get colds and flulike symtoms during the winters.

That’s a good idea. If you do catch this thing it will help your doctor rule out seasonal flu and may help you get COVID-19 test earlier. Might help your close contacts not catch it from you.

 

[bhobba]

Another recent article from propublica on the virus from a reporter who lived through SARS and reported on Ebola

Very nice.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

It does not happen without some kind of change in the circumstances. But that change could be individual people taking common sense precautions because they know about something they didn't before. I don't think we know how much of the change was due to that vs. the top-down government interventions.

To be clear, I'm not saying the government should do nothing. Since we the people have given the government a number of jobs, including disseminating accurate information, coordinating testing and procuring test kits, analyzing samples, giving good advice to people on what precautions they should take, analyzing all of the available data and trying to make predictions, giving good advice to localities on what actions they should take, etc., obviously the government needs to do those jobs, and we should hold the government accountable for how well it does them.

Here's another story for you:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e...secretive-church-at-heart-of-spike-in-s-korea
"Angry netizens, however, are calling her "crazy ajumma" (auntie in Korean) for the way she refused twice to test for the Coronavirus despite developing symptoms such as a sore throat and fever, then attending church twice despite her condition worsening, and how she roamed freely even though she was warded for 10 days in a hospital after a car accident.
The woman also left the hospital to have lunch with friends at a buffet restaurant and spent time at a jimjilbang (Korea spa with large resting areas) in the neighbouring city of Cheongdo, where infections linked to a hospital are multiplying.
She even argued with a health official for an hour before finally agreeing to take the Coronavirus test, according to local reports."

So you the people, need to give the government more jobs, including quarantining the sick and close contacts who have a high chance of developing the disease. This includes cancelling events such as SXSW that may lead to quick spread of the disease. As @Haorong Wu said above, it is a good idea if there are enough facilities to quarantine people away from their families, so that their families don't get the disease. Even if people want to do this, they won't have the facilities. And also, it would be good if the government provided care for COVID-1`9 patients free of charge.

 

[kadiot]

Deeply concerned with the 1,100 crew of the cruise ship which has now been allowed to dock in a port at Oakland...

Only the Americans will be allowed to leave the cruise ship... quarantined in several military bases and those who tested positive to be confined in hospitals...

Foreigners will also be allowed to leave but will ostensibly be flown out in charter flights to their home countries...

And what about the 1,100 crew of the ship?

They are instructed to STAY ON BOARD the ship!

Deeply concerning that the crew will suffer the same consequences of increased contamination when another cruise ship in Japan was kept ashore for 28 days...

 

[Rive]

And what about the 1,100 crew of the ship?

Well, that's a real concern, especially since the crew quarters are anything but OK for a quarantine...

 

[kadiot]

Well, that's a real concern, especially since the crew quarters are anything but OK for a quarantine...

Will the US Immigration’s fears of JUMPING SHIP by the crew trump health concerns?

 

[chirhone]

Overnight. Our cases in the Philippines jump from 5 to 20.

Community transmission is not far behind because many can't be traced to one another. One doesn't even have a passport

I have 3 questions that I'd like to have clear answers now.

1. During a lockdown. Two or three city blocks are quarantined with police checkpoints? What is your experience? How do the people there go to market or grocery if they ran out of stock in that area?

2. It started in a market in Wuhan, and there are now over 100,000 victims from that initial sprout. How does it differ if it started in a market in India, or London, or Seoul? Would it also sprout into 100,000 or more (or even 10,000)?

3. Is Wuhan near the most advanced biotech laboratory in China? It makes me wonder. If you have a computer virus that develops near Silicon Valley that affects worldwide. You won't think it just started in a computer of someone but from expert sources.

Wuhan is near the most advanced laboratory. In fact, it was even mentioned in a Novel. This shows Wuhan has some significance. The following excerpt is just to show there is something to Wuhan, and its not just a normal city but something with biotechnology high techness to it:

Written by Dean Koontz, “The Eyes of Darkness” is a story about a mother who discovers her son Danny is being kept in a military facility after being infected with a man-made microorganism called “Wuhan-400”.

Chapter 39 reads: “To understand it, you have to go back 20 months.

“It was around then that a Chinese scientist named Li Chen defected to the US, carrying a diskette record of China’s most important and dangerous new biological weapon in a decade.

“They call the stuff ‘Wuhan-400’ because it was developed at their RDNA labs outside the city of Wuhan and it was the 400th viable strain of man-made microorganisms created at that research centre."
"

 

[DennisN]

Here's what I am going to do after reading the WHO advice and some suggestions in this thread

I'm just back from the pharmacy where I got different medication I need and also a disinfectant (hand sanitizer). The public awareness in my neighborhood is clearly visible here: generally less people are outside and less people are visiting stores, and people seem to be more generally aware and careful. The cashier at the hardware store (which usually has many visitors) was wearing gloves, and there was a bottle with disinfectant available for free for pharmacy customers who wanted to clean their hands. Now I'm off to buy some food for me and my cat.

 

[Haorong Wu]

1. During a lockdown. Two or three city blocks are quarantined with police checkpoints? What is your experience? How do the people there go to market or grocery if they ran out of stock in that area?

There is no need for police to guard those blocks. Almost everyone is aware the situation. There are only several volunteers guarding at gates. In Wuhan, people are not allowed to go out. Instead, volunteers deliver food and daily supplies to every family. People just have to submit their needs on mobilephones.

2. It started in a market in Wuhan, and there are now over 100,000 victims from that initial sprout. How does it differ if it started in a market in India, or London, or Seoul? Would it also sprout into 100,000 or more (or even 10,000)?

It seems there is evidence that the virus is brought to the market from other places. The origin may not be trackable. However, the market, with high population density, bad ventilation and high moisture, did provide a perfect environment for the virus to spread.

3. Is Wuhan near the most advanced biotech laboratory in China? It makes me wonder. If you have a computer virus that develops near Silicon Valley that affects worldwide. You won't think it just started in a computer of someone but from expert sources.

I am not sure what you are referring here. If you mean that the virus may be designed by someone, it would seems impossible. I remember there are some paper saying the virus are naturally produced.

 

[kadiot]

Overnight. Our cases in the Philippines jump from 5 to 20.

The spread is being detected now, that means it began, unseen, weeks ago.

 

[mfb]

2. It started in a market in Wuhan, and there are now over 100,000 victims from that initial sprout. How does it differ if it started in a market in India, or London, or Seoul? Would it also sprout into 100,000 or more (or even 10,000)?

Wouldn't make a difference if it can't be contained quickly. Every city that is well-connected has the risk of a fast spread. A disease in some remote place in western China might have been easier to contain.

3. Is Wuhan near the most advanced biotech laboratory in China? It makes me wonder. If you have a computer virus that develops near Silicon Valley that affects worldwide. You won't think it just started in a computer of someone but from expert sources.

It's a biological virus, it's a completely different situation to a computer virus (which is always written by a human).
Oh, and don't start with conspiracy theories please, especially not if they are based on misinformation. Here is Reuters actually looking at the book. It has a virus called Wuhan-400 (in the most recent version, earlier it was a Russian virus), but the city is all it has in common with this new virus.

 

[kadiot]

...but the city is all it has in common with this new virus.

Yes, we can contain the spread of the virus of misinformation and fear (a.k.a. news virus) by holding that smartphone and forwarding a part of us that we really should just keep to ourselves!

 

[Vanadium 50]

Yes, we can contain the spread of the virus of misinformation and fear (a.k.a. news virus) by holding that smartphone and forwarding a part of us that we really should just keep to ourselves!

An even better way is for you to stop spreading nutty conspiracy theories.