COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[anorlunda]

Could everyone be forced to stay in - enforced by police. And, then, you have a group of volunteers and government workers deliver things to people (non-essential workers) for a month or two?

What police? What government workers? What doctors? What nurses? What bus drivers? Those people have children to care for and public transportation needs too, otherwise they can't work. In big cities, many people don't own cars.

I saw the Emergency Manager in Boston say that it was his agency's responsibility to deliver food, medicine, and essentials to anyone under isolation or quarantine. But if we shut down transportation, his workers can not perform those services.

 

[kyphysics]

What police? What government workers? What doctors? What nurses? What bus drivers? Those people have children to care for and public transportation needs too, otherwise they can't work. In big cities, many people don't own cars.

I saw the Emergency Manager in Boston say that it was his agency's responsibility to deliver food, medicine, and essentials to anyone under isolation or quarantine. But if we shut down transportation, his workers can not perform those services.

Transportation workers would still show up in my scenario.

Childcare is something I hadn't thought about. Time to Google Wuhan's lockdown protocol. I seem to recall they did this, so that's why I made the comment. *time to research*

 

[phinds]

Could that work for NYC? Could everyone be forced to stay in - enforced by police. And, then, you have a group of volunteers and government workers deliver things to people (non-essential workers) for a month or two?

With 8 million + people? No.

 

[chemisttree]

My dog keeps trying to give me a coronavirus...

 

[chemisttree]

They all bought mountains of toilet paper. I bought a bidet .

Seriously though, I see no point in me or other healthy people leaving their house to go get tested and possibly get infected by other people.

Smart man!

 

[chirhone]

Are you sure that’s the reason?

The checkpoint could use big sack to cover each person and insert the thermometer in the anus. But the problem is, the vagina is very near the anus. Some as short as 1 inch. If there is wrong insertion, it could cause Urinary Track Infection.

Hence it is decided to initiate Wuhan style Total Lockdown. This means no more checkpoints as people are demanded to stay home. Military and police man the streets and anything caugh walking would be scrutinized or followed.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/16/20/duterte-places-luzon-under-enhanced-community-quarantine-to-fight-covid-19

Can this contain the virus? How effective is it? But in Italy, there is total lockdown yet so many patients still end up in hospitals.

The World Health Organization projected we would have 75,000 infections in the next 5 weeks unless we initiate total Lockdown (even if we only have 142 infected and `12 deaths).

https://kami.com.ph/107943-dilg-who-projects-75000-coronavirus-cases-5-months-ph.html

Because of the warning by WHO and uncertainties or possible wrong thermometer entries. We initiated total lockdown.

 

[russ_watters]

In NYC, a bigger issue than roads is public transportation. They frequently have >50 people in railroad and subway cars, and sometimes on buses, and often waiting on the train platforms and bus stops. But if they stopped all transportation, then nobody could get to work including police and hospital employees.

In Philly, today, a bunch of conductors didn't show up for work this morning, presumably out of fear of being packed-into a metal tube with a whole bunch of people, and a bunch of trains had to be cancelled. "A bunch" is only a baker's dozen, but it made the radio and news:
https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...-coronavirus-fare-refund-credit-20200316.html

 

[kyphysics]

fascinating article from today

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opin...oronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

Why South Korea has so few Coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many

 

[nsaspook]

It's time to think seriously about the economic repercussions of the current containments efforts. Millions will be without jobs maybe for months in the service sector. This will have a huge negative effect on the entire economic system. Are we really burning economic fuel for the best long term containment effect? Is the risk of a worldwide depression by also isolating the 80% that won't likely have serious health issues after infection and recovery (and are tested not to be virus carriers) really the best way to handle the current CV infection rate? I don't know but it seems to me that a total national Bay Area shutdown could be even more damaging in the long run.

 

[russ_watters]

It's time to think seriously about the economic repercussions of the current containments efforts. Millions will be without jobs maybe for months in the service sector. This will have a huge negative effect on the entire economic system. Are we really burning economic fuel for the best long term containment effect? Is the risk of a worldwide depression by also isolating the 80% that won't likely have serious health issues after infection and recovery (and are tested not to be virus carriers) really the best way to handle the current CV infection rate? I don't know but it seems to me that a total national Bay Area shutdown could be even more damaging in the long run.

Agreed. Right now it does not seem we are weighing the risks, but only thinking "stop Coronavirus at all costs". The costs should be considered.

 

[morrobay]

Some good news for a change: No documented cases of surface to person transmission .
Middle first paragraph. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html

 

[BillTre]

Inevitably some trade-offs will have to be made.

Especially if the current approach of flattening the curve succeeds, then there will be a longer lasting situation of people potentially getting infected rather than a quick nasty spike of most people getting infected all at once. Although good from a medical point of view, it will exacerbate the financial problems.

Besides the economy vs. medical consideration, there will also be the interruptions of many other activities and how to best respond to the complex developing situation and promote a more rapid recovery.

Of course all this is inherently political and the decisions made will be political (so it seems).
PF will have to come to some decisions about what kind of discussion to permit.

 

[nsaspook]

Agreed. Right now it does not seem we are weighing the risks, but only thinking "stop Coronavirus at all costs". The costs should be considered.

All I'm saying is that the response to seasonal to flu outbreaks that kill thousands a year, every year as been mainly mitigation focused on specific populations. Common Flu risk has been factored in and accepted as a cost of living our lives in a world filled with risk. If we change (what are the criteria?) to the mass confinement model for those types of risks what will be the likely repercussions of that change?

 

[bhobba]

Hence it is decided to initiate Wuhan style Total Lockdown. This means no more checkpoints as people are demanded to stay home. Military and police man the streets and anything caugh walking would be scrutinized or followed.

Logically that should really help. Interestingly countries doing well like Singapore do other things as well:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/...-learn-from-singapore-hk-bociurkiw/index.html
'Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said community transmission can be prevented "if countries detect, treat, test, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response."'

And get this one 'When the island's younger citizens were found to be neglecting their elderly parents, for example, the government gave seniors the right to sue their offspring for "lack of maintenance."'. Amazing.

Thanks
Bill

 

[BillTre]

All I'm saying is that the response to seasonal to flu outbreaks that kill thousands a year, every year as been mainly mitigation focused on specific populations. Common Flu risk has been factored in and accepted as a cost of living our lives in a world filled with risk. If we change (what are the criteria?) to the mass confinement model for those types of risks what will be the likely repercussions of that change?

There is important differences between the flu and corona virus:
Corona virus has a higher death rate (at least for certain populations).
There is no immunity in the population, so many more can get sick and they can get sick all at once, which would overwhelm the health system's capacity.

 

[bhobba]

Agreed. Right now it does not seem we are weighing the risks, but only thinking "stop Coronavirus at all costs". The costs should be considered.

I gave it my like because I think you are right. But some are saying because of the exponential nature of this you should go hard as early as possible - and by hard they mean until the people say you are overreacting. It's an interesting view.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Especially if the current approach of flattening the curve succeeds, then there will be a longer lasting situation of people potentially getting infected rather than a quick nasty spike of most people getting infected all at once. Although good from a medical point of view, it will exacerbate the financial problems.

I posted before a professor at our local university thinks he has found the 'cure':
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5

It will be tested at 50 hospitals last I heard (they are looking for more if I recall correctly). Of course the test may find - nice try but no prize. However if it does work it would make a big difference in treating those that go to hospital. I think we should go hard, but be flexible enough to change strategy as we find out more.

A little worrying though is they are using 'crowd funding' - that's crazy - they only need $750,000. Our government alone is spending billions on other measures.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Tom.G]

Right now it does not seem we are weighing the risks, but only thinking "stop Coronavirus at all costs".

As was pointed out in a press conference today, the steps that many people think would be 'more reasonable' are based on reports/results from several days to a week ago. What people don't realize is that the situation has changed, for the worse, since then. That is why recommendations/restrictions seem too extreme, they are addressing the current situation, not the previous one.

For those that are interested, here is a link to todays Press Conference given by Pres. Trump and several medical experts. Some is politics but there is a fair amount of actual information in it too. Downside: it goes on for 55 minutes.



Cheers,
Tom

 

[Klystron]

Creating a DVD/movie (I buy/rent them on YouTube) binge watching list - so far I've got:

1.) Contagion (virus movie)
2.) The Martian (isolation/survival film)
3.) Castaway (isolation/survival film)

who wants to make some recommendations?

"Robinson Caruso" for classic lovers and "Swiss Family Robinson" for Disney fans.

Various films based on Richard Matheson's novel "I Am Legend", such as "The Omega Man" (1971) staring Charlton "Moses" Heston; the latter being one of the early killer-vamp-virus flicks. Will Smith starred in this 2007 remake including a very smart dog.

Speaking of smart dogs, the movie "A Boy and His Dog" 1975 is among the first and funniest post-apocalypse avant-garde survival flicks. Also on Prime video.

Since @bhobba posted about psoriasis and treatments, the definitive related art must be Dennis Potter's play/script/novel "The Singing Detective".

BBC aired a brilliant version of The Singing Detective" (1986) staring Michael Gambone, Patrick Malahide and young Joanne Whalley. More recently (2003) Robert Downey Jr. played the eponymous character. Yes, methotrexate as a treatment is featured in song and dance.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0314676/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1

 

[chirhone]

Italy is under comlete lockdown but it records 350+ deaths in single day. How is virus transmitted during complete lockdown? Our groceries and essentials remain open (all else are close) and there are long lineups with customers close to one another. Is this the mode of transmission in Italy?

 

[hagopbul]

What is the percentage of false positive in the current testing equipments ?

How much time is needed to find out about this false positive ?

 

[Rive]

Italy is under comlete lockdown but it records 350+ deaths in single day. How is virus transmitted during complete lockdown?

The lockdown affects the new infections only, not the newly discovered ill or new deaths. The number of the newly discovered ill is expected to stop growing only after ~ two weeks.

Ps.: like in Hubei, graph is from here

 

[vxiaoyu18]

I'm in guangzhou, China. On the second day after academician li lanjuan proposed to the state on January 22 that "wuhan must be closed down", China resolutely took measures to close down the city, which prevented the outbreak of the epidemic in the first place. Thanks to the right decision, the outbreak in our country is now pretty clear and almost under control. So the best way to deal with this outbreak is for everyone to stay at home and be quarantined and work together to stop the source of infection and get this virus over with. Our country and people are very friendly and will try our best to help people around the world fight the virus during this time of crisis. Good luck to all of you.

 

[DennisN]

Everyone should have some hand sanitizer, but hoarders who deprive others should read this:

The week that changed lives: For one Garner family, sanitizer shortage puts a life at risk
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article241193256.htmlIf you have a few months' supply - great. If you have 10 years worth and people like this cannot access any, then in emergencies like COVID19, that is practically criminal.

I will try to find the email to the journalist who wrote the article to get the contact info to the family.
If I succeed I will try to locate hand sanitization and send it to them. But it would take some time for a delivery from Sweden to the US, so if anyone here reading this is in the US and have access to available hand sanitization it would go much faster.

Ok, please post if you get it. Good job.

@WWGD :

As I said, I managed to find the mother of the family on facebook and I contacted her. And I just got a reply from her:

Hi Dennis!
Once I put our request on FB and NextDoor, our community responded in a huge way.
They have shared so much with us. I've located three families like ours to share with them everything that's been given to us!
So we are good--thank you for your kindness!

I told her that washing hands with soap and warm water is a good alternative if and when hand sanitizers are not available. I also gave her the link to the WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public. And then I wished them good health and good luck.

 

[vxiaoyu18]

This is the epidemic trend chart of our country. From the analysis of the chart, I think the effective measures taken by our country are as follows:
1) close the city all over the country, stop all gathering activities, and try to isolate people at home.
2) send medical teams and donations from all over the country to support key epidemic areas, so that local hospitals can fully identify and treat patients and control the source of infection.
3) timely take measures to trace the source of infection outside the epidemic area to control it and timely block it.
4) the data of the epidemic situation is transparent, and the virus epidemic should be disclosed in time so that people can avoid going near that place.

We hope to have the epidemic place, we should stay at home to play, or learn something new, as far as possible to avoid going out of the close contact between people, must wear a protective mask, touch the public place to wash their hands, this is a more effective way.

 

[PeroK]

I'm in guangzhou, China. On the second day after academician li lanjuan proposed to the state on January 22 that "wuhan must be closed down", China resolutely took measures to close down the city, which prevented the outbreak of the epidemic in the first place. Thanks to the right decision, the outbreak in our country is now pretty clear and almost under control. So the best way to deal with this outbreak is for everyone to stay at home and be quarantined and work together to stop the source of infection and get this virus over with. Our country and people are very friendly and will try our best to help people around the world fight the virus during this time of crisis. Good luck to all of you.

How do you return to normal after lockdown without the virus starting to spread again? I live in London and I expect that in the next few weeks there will be a lockdown. But, how does a lockdown or isolation ever end for a city like London?

 

[vxiaoyu18]

How do you return to normal after lockdown without the virus starting to spread again? I live in London and I expect that in the next few weeks there will be a lockdown. But, how does a lockdown or isolation ever end for a city like London?

I think it is necessary to close the hospital and treat all the virus infections. There are no new cases outside the hospital for at least 14 days. This is how wuhan is controlled.

 

[wukunlin]

How do you return to normal after lockdown without the virus starting to spread again? I live in London and I expect that in the next few weeks there will be a lockdown. But, how does a lockdown or isolation ever end for a city like London?

The idea is to make sure everyone with the virus is sent to the hospital where they stay until cured. The long quarantine/lockdown period is to make sure everyone who stayed home haven't got the virus.

 

[PeroK]

The idea is to make sure everyone with the virus is sent to the hospital where they stay until cured. The long quarantine/lockdown period is to make sure everyone who stayed home haven't got the virus.

I think it is necessary to close the hospital and treat all the virus infections. There are no new cases outside the hospital for at least 14 days. This is how wuhan is controlled.

Okay, I understand that. But, what next? Does Wuhan remain isolated from the rest of the world?

 

[wukunlin]

Okay, I understand that. But, what next? Does Wuhan remain isolated from the rest of the world?

They will eventually be lifted. Some surrounding cities are toning down the level of lockdown already.

 

[PeroK]

They will eventually be lifted. Some surrounding cities are toning down the level of lockdown already.

You're saying that we (globally) could eliminate this virus altogether? After 3-4 months of global lockdowns, the virus would be wiped out completely and we could return globally to some sort of normality?

 

[wukunlin]

You're saying that we (globally) could eliminate this virus altogether? After 3-4 months of global lockdowns, the virus would be wiped out completely and we could return globally to some sort of normality?

That appears to be the only way until we got a drug or vaccine for it...

 

[kyphysics]

That appears to be the only way until we got a drug or vaccine for it...

I think there is also the hope that summer weather (hot and humid) will kill off the virus to a large degree. I know experts debate whether weather affects the virus or not, but that is at least a hope.

 

[kyphysics]

@WWGD :

As I said, I managed to find the mother of the family on facebook and I contacted her. And I just got a reply from her:

I told her that washing hands with soap and warm water is a good alternative if and when hand sanitizers are not available. I also gave her the link to the WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public. And then I wished them good health and good luck.

Brought a smile to my face!

That's awesome man! Didn't realize you did that, so big thumbs up dude!

I'm sure your actions meant a lot to the mother. Sometimes just having a friendly person say a kind word or offer help in times of distress can do a whole lot to calm people and make them smile.

Thanks for what you did!

 

[DennisN]

@kyphysics , @Jarvis323
By the way, how are you both feeling at the moment?

I feel pretty good. I have been sleeping a lot, I was probably a bit tired due to the last couple of days. I have no unusual symptoms at the moment at all except from a very mild cold (only a bit of a stuffed nose, no fever, no cough).

 

[vxiaoyu18]

This requires the cooperation of every country and people, working together to actively deal with the virus, open the data, and when to end the game using real data as the criterion. The situation is different in every country, and the measures taken vary, but there should be a consensus among people on how to effectively stop the infection, for themselves, for their families, for all their friends and for the future of mankind.

 

[wukunlin]

I think there is also the hope that summer weather (hot and humid) will kill off the virus to a large degree. I know experts debate whether weather affects the virus or not, but that is at least a hope.

I read that the virus can withstand up to 54c of heat. We will need a heatwave.

 

[Rive]

We will need a heatwave.

As things are now, we would need it at the same time on both hemisphere...

 

[DennisN]

I read that the virus can withstand up to 54c of heat.

Do you have a source for this information?

 

[russ_watters]

As was pointed out in a press conference today, the steps that many people think would be 'more reasonable' are based on reports/results from several days to a week ago. What people don't realize is that the situation has changed, for the worse, since then. That is why recommendations/restrictions seem too extreme, they are addressing the current situation, not the previous one.

I wasn't suggesting anything about the proactive(forward looking) nature of the containment efforts. If anything, I think they haven't been proactive enough, particularly in planning for implementation. If infectious disease experts expected a month ago that it would spread everywhere, it could have been announced/discussed and people could have planned instead of finding out what was going to happen with hour or minutes notice.

But that doesn't change the fact that -as far as I can tell - weighing the economic cost hasn't been part of the conversation at all.

People are still talking about the lifetime of economic damage done to millennials by the great recession. I haven't heard anyone say the same for the next generation.

If one truly believes this disease would kill tens of millions of people, then it is probably worth "containment at all costs", but only probably, and it should be said: "sorry guys, we know we are likely dooming you to a lifetime of economic underachievement/hardship, but we believe it is worth it."

 

[DennisN]

But that doesn't change the fact that -as far as I can tell - weighing the economic cost hasn't been part of the conversation at all.

I assume you are talking about the long-term economic cost, or? If so, I agree and add that it may be a difficult conversation due to uncertainties and the immediate worry about the virus spread, health capabilities and short-term economic costs.

If I remember correctly both the government and opposition have been talking about some sort of economic stimulus package in the US (even announced, maybe?), or?

This is the case here in Sweden, i.e. economic measures due to the economic impact of the virus are being talked about, and some measures are already put in place.

EDIT: As an example of discussion here in Sweden, there are news reports that the Swedish part of SAS (Scandinavian Airlines) is having serious problems and some experts say it could become bankrupt in a few weeks. If I remember correctly, 90% of the Swedish SAS workforce was temporarily laid off a couple of days ago.

EDIT 2: Two sources:

• http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/sas-haller-presskonferens-om-konsekvenserna-av-nya-coronaviruset/ (only in Swedish)
• http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/sas-temporarily-lays-off-90-of-workforce-affecting-10-000-jobs

90% of SAS has been laid off, which is 10'000 people.

 

[anorlunda]

It's time to think seriously about the economic repercussions of the current containments efforts.

That's true, but I don't think we will allow economics to dominate our short term decisions.

1. Things are happening too quickly for introspective thoughtful decision making.
2. There is a cultural bias against "putting a price on a human life." It is political suicide to suggest saving money by letting people die.
3. There are no economic models that credibly include pandemic.

Perhaps when even the decision makers are quarantined, they will have the time to think things through. (Says me tongue-in-cheek:-)

But if you really want to think out-of-the-box: What effect will a global shutdown have on carbon emissions?

 

[wukunlin]

Do you have a source for this information?

uh... myth busted

 

[DennisN]

Wow, I had not seen that info on the WHO page. Thanks for posting, @wukunlin !

 

[DennisN]

And some brief humor to lighten things up for a brief minute :

Toilet roll rugby

 

[PeroK]

And some brief humor to lighten things up for a brief minute :

Toilet roll rugby

That's not rugby. That's Australian Rules ("toilet rolls") Football.

 

[chirhone]

I'm in guangzhou, China. On the second day after academician li lanjuan proposed to the state on January 22 that "wuhan must be closed down", China resolutely took measures to close down the city, which prevented the outbreak of the epidemic in the first place. Thanks to the right decision, the outbreak in our country is now pretty clear and almost under control. So the best way to deal with this outbreak is for everyone to stay at home and be quarantined and work together to stop the source of infection and get this virus over with. Our country and people are very friendly and will try our best to help people around the world fight the virus during this time of crisis. Good luck to all of you.

Please scrutinize if the following procedure is correct. In our complete lockdown we have this guideline:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/new...enhanced-community-quarantine-in-luzon/story/

"
7. Only 1 (one) person per household is allowed to go outside their homes to buy basic necessities. Use of private vehicles for this purpose shall be allowed; "

What happens is that people drive to friends house or go elsewhere besides buying basic necessities (hence there are still many cars in the street). In Wuhan. You can still drive around the city allegedly to buy food? Or are even private cars prohibited? Then how do you buy basic necessities? You walk in streets?

 

[russ_watters]

I assume you are talking about the long-term economic cost, or? If so, I agree and add that it may be a difficult conversation due to uncertainties and the immediate worry about the virus spread, health capabilities and short-term economic costs.

If I remember correctly both the government and opposition have been talking about some sort of economic stimulus package in the US (even announced, maybe?), or?

I'm interested in both short term and long term, and both costs and spending. A recession is a cost whereas a stimulus package is spending to try to avoid that cost.

Such as it has been, essentially all of the actions by the US government have been reactive. Even policies that will have long term impact are still being implemented only after the impacts are starting to be seen.

But again, that's not the issue I raised in what you quoted. The issue I raised is that the containment actions are being taken without regard to cost.

In economic analysis of any action, the base case, which is often ignored, is "do nothing".

I think it is also worth pointing out that the economic costs and health benefits of containment are largely borne by different people.

 

[bhobba]

The lockdown affects the new infections only, not the newly discovered ill or new deaths. The number of the newly discovered ill is expected to stop growing only after ~ two weeks.

You hit it in one. In Australia we are not in complete lockdown yet - but likely eventually will be

Thanks
Bill

 

[DennisN]

But again, that's not the issue I raised in what you quoted. The issue I raised is that the containment actions are being taken without regard to cost.

Thanks, I understand now.