COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[BillTre]

Nice chart, thanks for making it.

It would be interesting to see relative numbers on population densities and the numbers of people moving into the different areas (like airport traffic, not sure if just numbers of nmbers/pop. size would be better).

 

[Vanadium 50]

For example, the population they sampled was far from random as they recruited subjects who responded to an advertisement on Facebook. It is likely that those who responded to the ad were more likely to be those who think they may have been exposed and would want to get tested (especially given the difficulty of getting tested in CA). Weighting the responses by zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity is unlikely to eliminate such a bias from the data.

Let me address the objections:

(1) Typically what is done is that the first pass says "a study" without being specific to try and reduce (and ultimately correct for) this bias. A weakness of this paper is it does not go into detail on this, and that's a fair criticism. But could it really be off by a factor of fifty? That's a heck of a selection bias.

(2) False positives and Bayes theorem is a completely fair point. I pointed that out myself 32 days ago. At the time people were telling me that false positives were completely impossible. I guess times have changed.

(3) The third point is essentially "I don't believe the answer" because it doesn't match past experience. In that case, there isn't much point in doing these studies, is there? I would be remiss in pointing out that the cruise ship data suggests it spreads very fast, and that we have been told for two months now that "this is completely unprecedented!"

There's more than a little data that suggests the spread is faster than expected, which means that the mortality rate is correspondingly lower (since the product is constant).

 

[OmCheeto]

Nice chart, thanks for making it.

It would be interesting to see relative numbers on population densities and the numbers of people moving into the different areas (like airport traffic, not sure if just numbers of nmbers/pop. size would be better).

I would look into that, but my suspicions are that your parameters are irrelevant, so I won't.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Mapping the worldwide
spread of the coronavirus

By Washington Post Staff Updated April 19 at 3:49 p.m.​

More than 130,000 people have died worldwide in the Covid-19 pandemic as of April 15, and millions of cases have been reported, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The United States is now the outbreak’s epicenter, with more recorded deaths and reported infections than any other country.

Several countries are confirming thousands of new cases of Covid-19 each day, led by the United States, where testing was slow to begin.

On March 31, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the pandemic “the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War.”

Reported deaths

164,938

Reported cases

2,394,291​

Deaths Cases

Adjusted for population

[ . . .]

###
https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...read-new-coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_6

 

[mfb]

If it doesn't work (not just no evidence) , then it means herd immunity doesn't work too?

No. It just means the test is not reliable. As an example it might react to antibodies from a different Coronavirus - reacting to people who had a common cold.

Following the paragraph, it says that "“There’s been an expectation, maybe, that herd immunity may have been achieved and that the majority of people in society may already have developed antibodies. I think the general evidence is pointing against that... so it may not solve the problem the governments are trying to solve.”

Yes, at this moment only a small fraction of the population had it. That's generally known.

What would happen to infections when there are no herd immunity?

See today's world.

But then millions of americans die per year from the flu (this is true?). Then it's like a 4 or 5 year fatality from illnesses. Since they are used to it. Maybe 4.6 million death would just be just common illnesses fatality statistics?

No it is not true, as even a quick cross check would have shown. The US has 340 million people, if that would be constant we would expect about 4 million deaths per year, as the US tends to have a younger population the actual number is 2.8 million (2019). That's barely "millions", even if the flu would be the only cause of death in the US. Clearly it is not. Influenza and pneumonia together killed 56,000 last year.

(2) False positives and Bayes theorem is a completely fair point. I pointed that out myself 32 days ago. At the time people were telling me that false positives were completely impossible.

Who said that?
I remember people discussing how problematic false positives are. I don't remember anyone claiming false positives were impossible.

 

[Vanadium 50]

But then millions of americans die per year from the flu (this is true?).

No, it's not true. Just like several other posts of yours.

In a good year, as low as 12,000 people per year die of the flu. In a bad year, it's more like 60.000.

If Covid-19 ultimately kills 100,000 people, that's twice a bad flu season. It would be the worst since 1969.

 

[atyy]

I would look into that, but my suspicions are that your parameters are irrelevant, so I won't.

You avoid doing it because then Oregon will be as bad as New York (just kidding, I lived in Eugene for a while, the most beautiful place I've ever lived - either that or San Francisco with the Golden Gate at sunset, but I had to run to that, whereas Eugene was beautiful right at the doorstep).

 

[chirhone]

No, it's not true. Just like several other posts of yours.

In a good year, as low as 12,000 people per year die of the flu. In a bad year, it's more like 60.000.

If Covid-19 ultimately kills 100,000 people, that's twice a bad flu season. It would be the worst since 1969.

Ah ok. So if Covid kills 60,000 americans. It's just like fatalities from flu and no big deal.

In my country. We only have less than 10 deaths from flu. That's why if Covid kills 1,000, it would mean so much.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

LLNL COVID-19 Research and Response
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is fully committed to helping protect the U.S. from COVID-19 and to speed the recovery of those affected. As a world-class research institute, we have considerable infrastructure, unique research capabilities and a dedicated team of scientists and engineers supporting the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Because of the California shelter-in-place order, LLNL is currently operating at reduced mission-critical operations; however, our researchers continue to be focused on defeating COVID-19 and are active both on- and off-site.

Since the emergence of the pandemic in January, we have been supporting the research and medical communities with tools and information to better understand COVID-19. For example, on February 3rd, we released predicted structures of a key COVID-19 viral protein to help the research community accelerate development of potential medical treatments. A summary of our initial research efforts is also available, as is information about our participation in the COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium. LLNL is also a part of the Department of Energy’s collective response to the pandemic.

The Laboratory is a highly collaborative organization, and we welcome partnerships with academia and industry. Our current COVID-19 research and response activities are focused on four broad areas: High Performance Computing, Detection, Medical Countermeasures and Medical Equipment. The Laboratory is also leveraging our unique capabilities and infrastructure to support the fight against COVID-19, as well as creating a COVID-19 data portal to expedite access to our modeling results. For technical inquiries and collaborative opportunities, please contact the Laboratory’s Biosecurity Center at biosecurity@llnl.gov. More information about our current activities can be found on the following pages.

[ . . . ]

###
https://www.llnl.gov/coronavirus

Battling COVID-19 with expertise, technology, and materials

Updated: Monday, April 13 1:45 p.m.

A multidisciplinary effort

LOS ALAMOS, NM, April 8, 2020—Los Alamos National Laboratory, like many of the Department of Energy national laboratories, is drawing on its rich history in the biological sciences to actively engage in the national effort to study, understand, and answer important questions about the COVID-19 outbreak. Areas covered include disease detection and diagnostics, epidemic modeling, disease prediction and forecasting, decision support, data collection and integration, and medical measures.

“Over the last several weeks, the Laboratory has taken extraordinary steps to preserve the ability to execute our mission while assisting our surrounding communities, the state, and our nation during this demanding national emergency,” said Los Alamos Director Thom Mason. “Many are looking to the Laboratory for resources including our expertise, technology, and materials to help combat the COVID-19 virus.”

Los Alamos is providing decision-support for business and government, according to Mason.

“We are also collaborating with other national laboratories in the Department of Energy complex to develop an alternative COVID-19 testing method and are evaluating the potential of advanced manufacturing, specifically 3-D printing, to produce scarce medical equipment,” Mason said.

[ . . . ]

###
https://www.lanl.gov/updates/covid-19-science.php

 

[kyphysics]

Ah ok. So if Covid kills 60,000 americans. It's just like fatalities from flu and no big deal.

In my country. We only have less than 10 deaths from flu. That's why if Covid kills 1,000, it would mean so much.

What country are you from, chirhone?

Why so few deaths from flu?

 

[Vanadium 50]

So if Covid kills 60,000 americans. It's just like fatalities from flu and no big deal.

Killing people is a big deal.

You've posted a lot of idiotic things, but this takes the cake.

 

[atyy]

Germany eyes some normality after bringing Coronavirus outbreak ‘under control’
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/eur...irus-under-control-other-parts-europe-are-far
"Declaring that it has brought the Coronavirus “under control”, Germany will allow thousands of shops, bookstores, furniture stores and car dealerships to reopen on Monday in what amounts to a first significant step towards a return to normality in Europe’s biggest economy.
But the cautious restart in Germany after a month of public lockdown – a reflection of its low Covid-19 death and falling reproduction rates – stands in sharp contrast to Spain, France, Italy and the UK. Lockdowns designed to slow the spread of the virus have been extended into May as the total numbers of deaths in those four major European countries rose ominously towards 80,000."

Coronavirus lockdown: NZ to ease restrictions after 'stopping explosion'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52350910
"New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern has thanked people for "stopping an uncontrolled explosion of Covid-19", as she announced an easing of lockdown.
The country has been praised for its quick and strict response to the virus, and will move from "Level 4" lockdown to "Level 3" late next Monday.
It means some businesses can reopen, along with some schools, while rules on local travel will be relaxed.
"We have done what very few countries have been able to do," Ms Ardern said."

 

[Vanadium 50]

What country are you from, chirhone?

He says he is from the Philippines. Quezon City.

In my country. We only have less than 10 deaths from flu.

This is not true.

 

[chirhone]

What country are you from, chirhone?

Why so few deaths from flu?

Because we never have any winters, we never saw any snow all our lives. It's like summer all year long. I personally never heard of anyone dying from flu.

But then when I googled about flu in my country. I read about flu and pneumonia accounting for 10% of the deaths. So I'll spend the week reading about the flu here. It's been more than a month of lockdown and I have finished many movies on Netflix and bored already. Sorry for not knowing in details about flu. I never have any flu shots all my life.. so are most people I know.

Our country is seriously considering martial-law like lockdown using the armed forces and police to guard every street and put in jail anyone who violated the lockdown. This is after our deaths soar to more than 400 (it's now 428 today) and people are shaking. Our president is undecided whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months.

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/4/19/afp-leaked-memo-preps-lockdown.html?fbclid=IwAR3E3pjQ11PDSZlzzPe4fhZlB9WafEWL9o2-PPfEquWbMoaWR-9RxW5IT28

Meanwhile. In the United States, Deaths are nearly in the 40,000 and the leader is in support of the protest against lockdown. So death could really soar to over 100,000 by December.

 

[bhobba]

This is not true.

Even if we got 100% vaccinated, which of course should be any countries aim, it is not 100% effective. First we have to guess the flu strains that will be circulating - that's rather hit and miss. But if we are lucky to do that then we face the issue it is not 100% effective in preventing the flu. Fortunately, although it might not prevent some people getting it, it is generally not as bad if you do get it - death rates of vaccinated people is lower. You can do an internet search - here is an example:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2017-2018/vaccine-reduces-risk-severe-illness.htm

While IMHO everyone should get a flu shot each year, unfortuneately there will still be deaths, and, again unfortuneately, it will be more than 10. It goes without saying this is still a big advance over not having a vaccine as is currently the situation with Covid. But even with the vaccine sensible measures like hand washing, reasonable social distancing etc is still very worthwhile - but a lockdown most would likely judge as not necessary.

Thanks
Bill

 

[chirhone]

Because we never have any winters, we never saw any snow all our lives. It's like summer all year long. I personally never heard of anyone dying from flu.

But then when I googled about flu in my country. I read about flu and pneumonia accounting for 10% of the deaths. So I'll spend the week reading about the flu here. It's been more than a month of lockdown and I have finished many movies on Netflix and bored already. Sorry for not knowing in details about flu. I never have any flu shots all my life.. so are most people I know.

Our country is seriously considering martial-law like lockdown using the armed forces and police to guard every street and put in jail anyone who violated the lockdown. This is after our deaths soar to more than 400 (it's now 428 today) and people are shaking. Our president is undecided whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months.

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/4/19/afp-leaked-memo-preps-lockdown.html?fbclid=IwAR3E3pjQ11PDSZlzzPe4fhZlB9WafEWL9o2-PPfEquWbMoaWR-9RxW5IT28

Meanwhile. In the United States, Deaths are nearly in the 40,000 and the leader is in support of the protest against lockdown. So death could really soar to over 100,000 by December.

Where are our Wuhan survivors who have been giving us advices last month (I remembered corresponding with a couple).

In Wuhan. You don't just flatten the curve, you tried to destroy every trace of the infection. My country is now into 1.5 months and I've been jobless for this long. So I need to think of this seriously in support for or against extending the lockdown.

This is the good analysis about flattening the curve (where I got the country list of casualties).

https://news.abs-cbn.com/ancx/culture/spotlight/04/19/20/recent-data-suggests-the-philippines-is-doing-better-in-flattening-the-curve

Is Wuhan a different case where they aim for zero infection that can't be repeated elsewhere? Instead of flattening the curve, they are removing the curve (what is a good jargon here).

What's so puzzling is how come the United States is in such chaos of debates whether lockdown should be lifted soon even with many infections still ongoing. They don't believe in flattening the curve? I can't understand what Trump is thinking.

Yesterday Trump called our president to talk to him. I don't want him to inject thoughts in his head. Because it can influence us eventually. I need to think about this in the critical 10 days ahead where we will debate whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months with martial law implementation. Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown. We don't have protest anymore because those who did initally we still in jail.

 

[Jarvis323]

Where are our Wuhan survivors who have been giving us advices last month (I remembered corresponding with a couple).

In Wuhan. You don't just flatten the curve, you tried to destroy every trace of the infection. My country is now into 1.5 months and I've been jobless for this long. So I need to think of this seriously in support for or against extending the lockdown.

This is the good analysis about flattening the curve (where I got the country list of casualties).

https://news.abs-cbn.com/ancx/culture/spotlight/04/19/20/recent-data-suggests-the-philippines-is-doing-better-in-flattening-the-curve

Is Wuhan a different case where they aim for zero infection that can't be repeated elsewhere? Instead of flattening the curve, they are removing the curve (what is a good jargon here).

What's so puzzling is how come the United States is in such chaos of debates whether lockdown should be lifted soon even with many infections still ongoing. They don't believe in flattening the curve? I can't understand what Trump is thinking.

Yesterday Trump called our president to talk to him. I don't want him to inject thoughts in his head. Because it can influence us eventually. I need to think about this in the critical 10 days ahead where we will debate whether to extend the lockdown to 2 months with martial law implementation. Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown. We don't have protest anymore because those who did initally we still in jail.

Since the US is in the midst of an election process (an especially warlike
one), everything is politicized.

The thing I realized is that extending the lockdown is not a simple choice. It has only been possible so far due to the stimulus checks. If it goes longer (without more payouts) then a very large swath of the population won't have the means to survive. Chaos would erupt as people would have no choice but to start raiding stores or houses.

 

[chirhone]

Since the US is in the midst of an election process (an especially warlike
one), everything is politicized.

The thing I realized is that extending the lockdown is not a simple choice. It has only been possible so far due to the stimulus checks. If it goes longer (without more payouts) then a very large swath of the population won't have the means to survive. Chaos would erupt as people would have no choice but to start raiding stores or houses.

Here the government feeds the people by going to their house and delivering the foods. This has been going on for 1.5 months and the entire money of the government is being stretched. We were debating whether to extend it to 2 months. But if we stopped the lockdown prematurely. We may be like the United States with massive infection and deaths. The senators are shaking whenever they open the news and see the death toll in the US. But if our lockdown goes on, we may get so poor.

Presently I use the following half face respirator when going out (plus air tight goggles).

The filter is P100... better than N95. It is so air tight that if you block the two ports, you can't breath any air. Which brings to this question. How airborne is covid-19? Can it pass through the 0.3micron P100 filter with 99.97% efficiency? I think though the virus is almost always in a droplet from a sneeze or cough. But can the virus themselves be propelled independently outside the droplets?

If we can't contain the virus like in Wuhan. Then we may have to wear like the above for the rest of our lives.

China Covid-19 experts have visited our country and commented we couldn't determine the source of infection so may not stop it. In the United States, what does it mean to determine the source of infection? Is it impossible so Covid-19 would become part of american way of life for decades to come?

 

[WWGD]

I can't tell if you are serious or not.

First, China is not rich. It's #72 according to the World Bank in GDP per capita. It does slightly worse in PPP.

Second, your message (sadly, like many of yours) is poorly thought out and would have been vastly improved by a few seconds of research. Had you Googled "Covid Poor" you would have received almost a billion hits, pointing out that in the US the poor are being hit disproportionately hard by this.

A fair point that you could have made, but did not, is that the world economy is taking a $10T or so hit for a disease that will likely kill fewer people this year than malaria (and many fewer over a decade than malaria). Yet we are spending 2000x more on Covid than malaria. Why is that?

It will kill fewer people _ After/with confinement_. Can you say the death rate would have been similar without the social distancing?

 

[Jarvis323]

Here the government feeds the people by going to their house and delivering the foods. This has been going on for 1.5 months and the entire money of the government is being stretched. We were debating whether to extend it to 2 months. But if we stopped the lockdown prematurely. We may be like the United States with massive infection and deaths. The senators are shaking whenever they open the news and see the death toll in the US. But if our lockdown goes on, we may get so poor.

Presently I use the following half face respirator when going out (plus air tight goggles). View attachment 261036

The filter is P100... better than N95. It is so air tight that if you block the two ports, you can't breath any air. Which brings to this question. How airborne is covid-19? Can it pass through the 0.3micron P100 filter with 99.97% efficiency? I think though the virus is almost always in a droplet from a sneeze or cough. But can the virus themselves be propelled independently outside the droplets?

If we can't contain the virus like in Wuhan. Then we may have to wear like the above for the rest of our lives.

China Covid-19 experts have visited our country and commented we couldn't determine the source of infection so may not stop it. In the United States, what does it mean to determine the source of infection? Is it impossible so Covid-19 would become part of american way of life for decades to come?

Yes the virus is airborne. It's not just droplets that can infect you.

But it's not just whether you are exposed to virus particles that can determine if you become infected and sometimes also how severely, it's also how much of the virus you are exposed to. This is why 13 feet or so has been suggested as safe even though the virus coming from your breath can technically spread throughout an entire warehouse, and why N95 masks are effective without blocking all the particles. Droplets are the worst because they carry large doses. Even a mask that blocks less than half of the particles is better than nothing; in some case, blocking even 1% could change the outcome if it puts it below a threshold.

 

[peanut]

I think he's right: A new clause in our social contract is required because until a vaccine or cure is found, our behaviour will control our fate.

"Achieving this degree of social protection will require a new clause in our social contract that will mean fewer contacts with others and wearing protective gear. Just as we obey the most basic laws in order to protect all of us, everyone needs to accept responsibility for not only our circle of friends, family and colleagues, but for the wider community. Our collective behavior will be the primary determinant of whether we can keep this virus in check. We each hold the health of our neighbors in our hands."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/...uJnoeZSDR0U-XrQAY0-L0_NZxHI2MgRu8gAwqqXRQM2z8

 

[Vanadium 50]

Can you say the death rate would have been similar without the social distancing?

Nope.

I also can't say if mandating it (where it is mandated) makes a difference or not.

I can't say that the lockdown was a net benefit or not. I suspect less beneficial than will be claimed because, at least in NY, it started late. As I said in another thread "If someone proposed ahead of time that the plan is to let the infected and uninfected mingle for two weeks and once things are good and spread and the symptoms start appearing, then we lock everything down, I don't think we'd all be cheering this on as a great idea."

I also can't tell that banning the sale of vegetable seeds in Copper Harbor, Michigan is saving lives. But I have my suspicions.

 

[peanut]

There seems to be evidence suggesting that there may be a correlation between a policy of BCG VACCINE FOR ALL and lower infection and fatality rates from Corvid...

1. BCG is a vaccine that consists of weakened or attenuated bacteria related to tuberculosis;
2. I think this is part of a host of vaccines that we get when we were children;
3. The result of these studies should be most useful as the race to produce an anti Corvid vaccine continues...

https://theaseanpost.com/article/ca...Cqg2tjTVyYtbfDalD30xYNEPR-jIQ_djqwes_JOpPESMc

 

[russ_watters]

A lesson on exponential function

https://centerforinquiry.org/blog/i...-vuGmtoe_W-DYwuAZmK6W10XBDGyrijcgPA5wZQLHiFDE

That author's opinions seem to be based on the idea that management of the virus isn't possible. That the only two options are actual-full lockdown and just letting it run wild. He even suggests the current partial shutdown approach won't eliminate exponential growth (e.g., is functionally equivalent to letting it run wild)...which it appears he wrote the day after the peak growth rate in the US.

To me the key to management is getting the infection rate low enough that test-trace-quarantine can be effective like it is in South Korea and a few other places.

 

[kadiot]

Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany, has PhD in Quantum Chemistry.

https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...a-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/

 

[TeethWhitener]

Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany, has PhD in Quantum Chemistry.

https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...a-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/

For some reason I (mis)remembered her PhD being in biophysics.

But yes, of all the world leaders, she is probably the most scientifically qualified to deal with this pandemic.

 

[kadiot]

For some reason I (mis)remembered her PhD being in biophysics.

But yes, of all the world leaders, she is probably the most scientifically qualified to deal with this pandemic.

She studied Physics first and then Quantum Chemistry. But they are still in the top 10. Looks like all the best human brains combined will not win against this virus.

 

[atyy]

Physicists Design Emergency Ventilators
https://physics.aps.org/articles/v13/58
Using their experimental expertise, three groups of physicists are developing ventilators that could help in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[chirhone]

Do you personally know someone with Covid and died? I know 2. One is an anesthesiologist, another is a neighbor in the province. The latter is 74 hears old. He suffered fever and cough. And improving when he suddenly encountered difficult breathing and then later died 2 days ago from heart attack. I don't know if the virus directly affects his heart.

There is something I don't quite understand. Is the mode of transmission still controversial? Isn't it like the flu? Why are Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee easing up restrictions and allowing people back to the mall or movie houses when positive Covid in the US can reach 1 million next week and 45,000 death? Can't there be increased transmission and infection by easing up restrictions?

Are their mindset about developing herd immunity by just getting everyone infected? In this case, the victims are expendable or collateral damage? But thinking of the two people I know. The victims in Italy and the USA are not really expendable, are they?

If Covid is transmitted similar to the flu. Then by wearing full face respirator that can protect your mouth, nose and eyes (and washing all parts of your body). You can protect yourself from all kinds of flu and coronavirus, right? Or since virus are particles and fields. Are there other modes of transmission like tunneling such that the governors in George, South Carolina, Tennessee and even some of you think the death is similar with or without lockdown (with or without social distancing)?

 

[atyy]

There is something I don't quite understand. Is the mode of transmission still controversial? Isn't it like the flu?

There is some uncertainty, but the major points are established.

Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations
https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...plications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

 

[morrobay]

Which denominator? There are at least three probabilities being bandied about:

1. The probability of death once exposed
2. The probability of death once infected
3. The probability of death once symptomatic

The working assumption is that 1 and 2 are nearly equal, and 3 is smaller. That may or may not prove to be the case.

Shouldn't number one be: 1. The probability of infection once one is exposed. IE There is an exposure gradient with brush surface contacts that do not result in infections. And then there are viral loads variables with initial exposure ,the less the viral load the better ones immune system can handle it. Edit: Is there any data that quantifies what exposures result in infection.

 

[kadiot]

Pasteur Institute: 5.7% of the French population will have been contaminated by SARS-CoV-2 by May 11 (and only 1.8% in Brittany.)

The study was carried out by modellers from the Institut Pasteur, the CNRS (National Scientific Research Centre) and Inserm (National Health and Medical Research Institute).

According to the study, the statistics are not nearly high enough to prevent a second wave of infection cases spiking following deconfinement.

The models also showed that number of hospitalisation and ICU cases will have dropped significantly in Brittany by 11 May. This is largely due to Brittany population's general adherence to confinement measures that are in place.

https://www.letelegramme.fr/france/...1-mai-selon-une-etude-21-04-2020-12541794.php

 

[Vanadium 50]

Shouldn't number one be: 1. The probability of infection once one is exposed

I said at least three numbers. Lots of numbers are being bandied about. You want to add a fourth or a tenth to my list, have at it.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why are Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee easing up restrictions and allowing people back to the mall or movie houses when positive Covid in the US can reach 1 million next week and 45,000 death?

Like so many of your other posts, this one is untrue. South Carolina is not "allowing people back into movie houses". Entertainment venues were closed April 1st, are not subject to the reopening, and even if they were would be limited to 5 customers per 1000 square feet, which means only a dozen or so people could watch a movie.

I didn't check the others. Since you can make up a falsehood faster than I can check it, this is a losing proposition for me. But if you keep saying things that aren't true, people will stop taking you seriously.

If they haven't already.

 

[bhobba]

Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown. We don't have protest anymore because those who did initally we still in jail.

Different countries, different approaches to priorities. It's a balance between individual freedom, protecting people, plus the economy. For example although Australia and NZ are very similar, NZ went for level 4 lockdown, Australia level 3, yet have about the same level of the virus. One can argue level 4 is not necessary - although I would not because other differences come into play eg population density.

Thanks
Bill

 

[TeethWhitener]

I didn't check the others

Georgia seems to be getting the most press right now: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...conomy-lifting-some-coronavirus-crisis-limits

Employees at "gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios," as well as "barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools & massage therapists," will be allowed to return to work on Friday but will have to operate under restrictions.

The mandatory conditions at the workplaces include social distancing, enhanced cleanings, screening workers for fevers and respiratory illness, wearing gloves and a mask if appropriate, moving workplaces 6 feet apart, staggering work shifts and, if possible, teleworking.

Edit: specifically about movie houses:

On Monday, April 27, sit-down restaurants, theaters and private social clubs will be allowed to reopen, "subject to specific social distancing & sanitation mandates," according to the governor.

 

[chirhone]

There is some uncertainty, but the major points are established.

Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations
https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...plications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

As a biology expert. Can you comment on this:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rJMlNWALvltglsFpAGDSubnDX2fUbIrZa1wMN-aM-m-c#

"How does Coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes"

"Despite the more than 1000 papers now spilling into journals and onto preprint servers every week, a clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen."

Not an exaggeration?

I have seen the following (from the article above) directly on the family friend. The virus made him suffer a heart attack and he didn't die from pneumonia but the virus directly damaging the heart.

"In Brescia, Italy, a 53-year-old woman walked into the emergency room of her local hospital with all the classic symptoms of a heart attack, including telltale signs in her electrocardiogram and high levels of a blood marker suggesting damaged cardiac muscles. Further tests showed cardiac swelling and scarring, and a left ventricle—normally the powerhouse chamber of the heart—so weak that it could only pump one-third its normal amount of blood. But when doctors injected dye in the coronary arteries, looking for the blockage that signifies a heart attack, they found none. Another test revealed why: The woman had COVID-19."

Is Covid-19 like a transient HIV/AIDS.

Tomorrow I'll accompany someone to a laboratory for routine medical checkup. I'll be wearing full PPE frontliners use (like 3M half face respirators, medical googles, face shield, etc.). But still nervous.

 

[bhobba]

But they are still in the top 10. Looks like all the best human brains combined will not win against this virus.

I disagree. We have the technology, our scientific knowledge is advancing quickly, we have well trained and smart people, some very smart eg Nobel prize winners. We have people like Bill Gates, who, along with Warren Buffet, are going to spend billions of their own money on a 'gamble', by in parallel bulk manufacturing the 7 most promising vaccines, so when the best one is identified it's ready to inoculate the world. This is a test of the human spirit - I believe, and I know it sounds schmaltzy, but I believe we will not fail.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why can't the US use the armed forces (like us) to implement the lockdown.

Once again, false. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/new...s-containment-center-to-stem-coronavirus.html

If you don't like that one, Google says there are 7,200,000 links just like it.

 

[DennisN]

Looks like all the best human brains combined will not win against this virus.

I disagree.

I disagree too.

Furthermore, it is worth remembering that humankind has survived quite many pandemics, including the worst one in history, the Black Death in the 14th century. And the scientific and medical expertise of humankind is much, much better today than in the 14th century .

 

[atyy]

As a biology expert. Can you comment on this:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rJMlNWALvltglsFpAGDSubnDX2fUbIrZa1wMN-aM-m-c#

"How does Coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes"

"Despite the more than 1000 papers now spilling into journals and onto preprint servers every week, a clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen."

Not an exaggeration?

Overall that is an excellent article. One of its minor flaws might be that it is arguably an exaggeration to say it acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen (depends on how one defines "like"). However, it is true that we don't yet know what the most common mechanisms of severe disease are (eg. if the heart is damaged, is it because of a cytokine storm or does the virus damage the heart directly?), and that we don't know how to identify which patients are at risk for severe disease in a way that we can act to prevent their deterioration. However, there are general principles of advanced life support that one applies in other situations (heat stroke, heart attack, acute kidney failure), and doctors can use their experience to guess what might work.

I have seen the following (from the article above) directly on the family friend. The virus made him suffer a heart attack and he didn't die from pneumonia but the virus directly damaging the heart.

"In Brescia, Italy, a 53-year-old woman walked into the emergency room of her local hospital with all the classic symptoms of a heart attack, including telltale signs in her electrocardiogram and high levels of a blood marker suggesting damaged cardiac muscles. Further tests showed cardiac swelling and scarring, and a left ventricle—normally the powerhouse chamber of the heart—so weak that it could only pump one-third its normal amount of blood. But when doctors injected dye in the coronary arteries, looking for the blockage that signifies a heart attack, they found none. Another test revealed why: The woman had COVID-19."

Yes, from reports it seems sometimes the heart symptoms even show up before any respiratory symptoms. I'm sorry to hear about your friend.

Is Covid-19 like a transient HIV/AIDS.

I don't think so. Earlier in the thread a paper was mentioned that made some comparison with HIV, but I think the resemblence is superficial since SARS-CoV-2 doesn't seem to replicate in the immune cells.

Edit: Removed video that is copied in @chirhone's reply to an earlier version of this post.

Tomorrow I'll accompany someone to a laboratory for routine medical checkup. I'll be wearing full PPE frontliners use (like 3M half face respirators, medical googles, face shield, etc.). But still nervous.

That should be good. Make sure you wash your hands before putting these things on, and before taking them off, and after taking them off.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Different countries, different approaches to priorities.

First, pretty much nothing that has come out of Mr. Chirhone has been correct.

But I think it's worth remembering that the US is the 3rd largest country in the world. South Carolina is 700 miles away from New York. Farther than London and Milan. Georgia is farther still.

As the data shows us, population density is an important factor. Barnwell County, SC has 40 people per square mile. Manhattan has a daytime population density of 120,000. Does it make sense that the same level of precautions be applied? Think Northern Territory far away from Darwin or Alice Springs (I don't even know what the next largest city in the Northern Territory is. Katherine maybe?)

 

[chirhone]

Overall that is an excellent article. One of its minor flaws might be that it is arguably an exaggeration to say it acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen (depends on how one defines "like"). However, it is true that we don't yet know what the most common mechanisms of severe disease are (eg. if the heart is damaged, is it because of a cytokine storm or does the virus damage the heart directly?), and that we don't know how to identify which patients are at risk for severe disease in a way that we can act to prevent their deterioration. However, there are general principles of advanced life support that one applies in other situations (heat stroke, heart attack, acute kidney failure), and doctors can use their experience to guess what might work.
Yes, from reports it seems sometimes the heart symptoms even show up before any respiratory symptoms. I'm sorry to hear about your friend.
I don't think so. Earlier in the thread a paper was mentioned that made some comparison with HIV, but I think the resemblence is superficial since SARS-CoV-2 doesn't seem to replicate in immune cells. Here is a video summarizing that paper: .
That should be good. Make sure you wash your hands before putting these things on, and before taking them off, and after taking them off.

The elderly I'm accompanying for blood checkup will only wear surgical mask. I think I'll cancel the appointment and let him order another set of this so we both wear this.

I find it easier to breathe than an N95 mask. Do you have any background in this? Have you tried one yourself? Are cartridges in such devices easier to breathe in than the fabric in N95?

I'm serious in the above. Those of you in lockdown who need to go to hospital. These are one of the surest way to avoid getting infected. I won't trust just handkerchief over the mouth.

 

[atyy]

I find it easier to breathe than an N95 mask. Do you have any background in this? Have you tried one yourself? Are cartridges in such devices easier to breathe in than the fabric in N95?

I don't. Maybe @chemisttree ?

BTW, I edited my post above to remove the video that was originally in there, as I'm not sure if everything he says is accurate.

 

[atyy]

But I think it's worth remembering that the US is the 3rd largest country in the world. South Carolina is 700 miles away from New York. Farther than London and Milan. Georgia is farther still.

As the data shows us, population density is an important factor. Barnwell County, SC has 40 people per square mile. Manhattan has a daytime population density of 120,000. Does it make sense that the same level of precautions be applied? Think Northern Territory far away from Darwin or Alice Springs (I don't even know what the next largest city in the Northern Territory is. Katherine maybe?)

I guess the problem in the US is central coordination. For example, suppose Barnwell is sure it has no cases so has no movement restrictions. To prevent new cases entering, it might like to require all visitors to the county to be isolated upon entry. Would that be possible? In other words, could Barnwell treat itself as a country like New Zealand, which has an overall population density close to Barnwell, is now lifting many lockdown-like measures, but is still keeping the requirement that visitors be isolated soon after entry.

 

[hmmm27]

I think I'll cancel the appointment and let him order another set of this so we both wear this.

I think that's socially very irresponsible. And - bluntly - foolish : you may not get a chance at a second appointment.

 

[bhobba]

Does it make sense that the same level of precautions be applied? Think Northern Territory far away from Darwin or Alice Springs (I don't even know what the next largest city in the Northern Territory is. Katherine maybe?)

Neither do I actually. Only 27 in the entire NT last time I looked. The worry is the number of aboriginal communities in the NT. I do not think anybody knows for sure, but it is thought if it got in those communities it could devastate them.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think our international community might be unaware of certain facts about the US.

It's big. Really big. It's the 3rd largest country in the world both in size and population. The distance from one end to the other is about the same as from Taipei to Delhi. Miami is closer to Lima, Peru than it is to Seattle.

Covid has hit three localities particularly hard: New York City, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Somewhere between one-third and one-half of the fatalities have been in the greater NYC metropolitan area, depending on what you call "greater New York".

To get an idea of the disparity in rates, if you compare NYC metro (20M people, and 15-18K fatalities) with the states with the lowest incidence, adding them up until you get 20M people (WY, HI, SD, UT, MT, WV, AK, AR, ND, NE and half of NC) , you get 245 fatalities. So there is a factor of ~60-75 difference across the country.

 

[WWGD]

Pasteur Institute: 5.7% of the French population will have been contaminated by SARS-CoV-2 by May 11 (and only 1.8% in Brittany.)

The study was carried out by modellers from the Institut Pasteur, the CNRS (National Scientific Research Centre) and Inserm (National Health and Medical Research Institute).

According to the study, the statistics are not nearly high enough to prevent a second wave of infection cases spiking following deconfinement.

The models also showed that number of hospitalisation and ICU cases will have dropped significantly in Brittany by 11 May. This is largely due to Brittany population's general adherence to confinement measures that are in place.

https://www.letelegramme.fr/france/...1-mai-selon-une-etude-21-04-2020-12541794.php

I wonder if it would be possible, albeit arguably unethical, to set up a control group to measure the effects of distancing, by letting the protestor crowd set up a colony without confinement, though allotting fewer med resources if things start going down fast.

 

[Bystander]

If they haven't already.

+10