COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[berkeman]

This looks like a promising development. I'd like to buy one plus some replacement filters...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/25/health/reusable-face-mask-mit-wellness-trnd/index.html

 

[berkeman]

It would be nice if they could modify the design to separate the two filters some so that deaf people could read our lips.

 

[atyy]

It would be nice if they could modify the design to separate the two filter some so that deaf people could read our lips.

Have you had to remove your mask when communicating with deaf people (especially in your emergency services work)?

 

[berkeman]

Have you had to remove your mask when communicating with deaf people (especially in your emergency services work)?

Not so far, but my EMS work is mainly as medical standby at large public events. I haven't had many of those shifts lately...

But it was pointed out to me recently that one of the hardest side-effects of everybody wearing masks is that deaf people can no longer use lip-reading to help their understanding. Other than transparent facemasks, I don't know how to help that.

 

[Astronuc]

It shouldn't be considered as changing the picture much. Terminology varies, but basically, the infection fatality rate (IFR) has been distinguished from the raw case fatality ratio, with the IFR estimated from 0.3% to 1% since early in the outbreak.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Yes, in terms of numbers, too many folks lost their lives, or became seriously ill, when most cases could have been prevented. As of yesterday, an estimated 4,158,341 confirmed cases with 138,692 deaths by covidtracking.com, or using cov2019.live, 4,310,721 confirmed cases and 149,324 deaths as of today in the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Compare to the recent flu season: estimated influenza illnesses: 39,000, 000 – 56,000,000; estimated hospitalizations: 410,000 – 740,000; estimated deaths: 24,000 – 62,000
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
https://www.rochesterregional.org/news/2020/01/flu-season-2020
Then there is the apples to oranges comparison
https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...u-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Nevertheless, we have more than doubled the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US since May.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121

Counting the total tests, and even positive and negative tests is complicated since some people may be counted more than once. Someone could be counted as negative and perhaps later as positive, and it's not clear how each county and state are counting folks who are tested more than once, or who are probable and not tested. Next year, or in the next two years, hopefully we'll have a chance to collect the data and better understand the data.

If it's one's loved one(s) who died, the statistics don't matter.

 

[bhobba]

Doesn't that seem low?

As well as the other factors mentioned it also depends on the death rate once you are bad enough to be put in ICU - that has large variability:
https://hellocaremail.com.au/australia-world-leaders-treating-covid-19/

There is no way that Australia's level of medical care is that much better than the US in ICU - if at all. And indeed likely more recent statistics than used above show a much better picture in the US:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076737v1

Bottom line there is variability in many of the figures used - some of which may be actual, while others likely depend on factors in collecting the data. As my stats professor used to say - Stats is like a bikini - it's the bits you do not see you want to know about. He was a funny guy. Stats was not my favourite subject, but I did all the electives (strictly speaking they let me self study one over a semester break due to timetabling constraints with Analysis B - I really enjoyed Analysis - I was weird) because I liked the lecturer.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

Call more beds "ICU" or move more people to the ICU and your ICU death rate goes down - not from better treatment, just from including more milder cases. The non-ICU hospital death rate goes down as well because the most severe cases are moved out of that category.

 

[russ_watters]

12 players and 2 staff of the Miami Marlins baseball team tested positive today (or just found out today), after 2 players including the starting pitcher were scratched just before yesterday afternoon's game. So their game in Miami against the Orioles and Philly's game against the Yankees tonight are canceled (just the 4th game for each team):
https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/m...k-covid-19-philadelphia-yankees-20200727.html

Pennsylvania's guidelines (not law) says that people who travel from hotspots like Florida should quarantine for 2 weeks. Obviously, the Marlins didn't. Baseball's policy to be cleared is 2 negative tests in 24 hours and no symptoms for 72, but the 2 week waiting period is based on the incubation time, and evidently Baseball's policy doesn't account for that. Logically, that doesn't work, and while I hate to see it happen, I see no way for the season to continue unless the logic is ignored -- and the same goes for other sports. The only potential "out" for baseball is if playing outside in 95F weather, under the sun keeps the transmission rate down. Otherwise, this policy won't stop an outbreak, and it seems likely a very large number of baseball players are going to get infected.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, baseball is a non-contact sport. Mostly.

And we're still discussing how infectious asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people are. That means the answer can't be "hugely" or we would have an answer.

Also, major league players don't travel like real people. As has been said, "You know, you never handle your luggage in the show, somebody else carries your bags. It was great. You hit white balls for batting practice, the ballparks are like cathedrals, the hotels all have room service, and the women all have long legs and brains. " I would be less worried about a bunch of guys in their private jets than a Greyhound bus packed with people going through Bridgeport, Connecticut.

 

[russ_watters]

Well, baseball is a non-contact sport. Mostly.

And we're still discussing how infectious asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people are. That means the answer can't be "hugely" or we would have an answer.

Also, major league players don't travel like real people. As has been said, "You know, you never handle your luggage in the show, somebody else carries your bags. It was great. You hit white balls for batting practice, the ballparks are like cathedrals, the hotels all have room service, and the women all have long legs and brains. " I would be less worried about a bunch of guys in their private jets than a Greyhound bus packed with people going through Bridgeport, Connecticut.

While not crystal clear overall, the lower bound answer for the sport of major league baseball is: infectious enough for 14 people in one organization to get it at about the same time.

In 2 weeks or less we'll find out if they can transmit it to another team or umpires.

 

[OCR]

". . . the women all have long legs and brains. "

Bull. . . He never made a reference to "not allowing blondes". . . .

Mostly.

There is contact with the baseball, though. . . maybe that's not enough to be a

concern ?
Oh, wait. . . maybe they could wear gloves ? .

.

 

[Astronuc]

AP reports that Texas just increased the number of deaths due to Covid-19 by about 700.
https://apnews.com/8f3a26a9673bbaf86ae0026979bfd863

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Texas reported an increase of nearly 700 additional deaths from the COVID-19 virus due to a change in how the state collects fatality data, representing a grim surge in the state’s fight against the Coronavirus pandemic.

The new figures released Monday show the state now with 5,713 COVID-19-identified fatalities in Texas, compared with 5,038 reported Sunday. The new figures include 44 new deaths reported Monday.

 

[morrobay]

While not crystal clear overall, the lower bound answer for the sport of major league baseball is: infectious enough for 14 people in one organization to get it at about the same time.

In 2 weeks or less we'll find out if they can transmit it to another team or umpires.

Regarding infectious I wonder if there is any history of a baseball team in a in very identical environment* with about 1/3 of team getting infected with a common flu at the same time. * Being in close crowded contact in somewhat confined area for prolonged time.

 

[mfb]

And we're still discussing how infectious asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people are. That means the answer can't be "hugely" or we would have an answer.

It's difficult to quantify and you can't do controlled lab tests for obvious reasons. We know people spread virus particles before they show symptoms - the peak of that is about the time where symptoms start.

The US reached over 800,000 tests per day, that would be close to 10% of the population per month if we don't count people tested multiple times.

 

[Astronuc]

A 45-year old nurse practitioner died of complications related to COVID-19. One her attending doctors, Nathan Green, wrote a letter to the community concerning her death in order to dispel misinformation be propagated on social media.

SARS-CoV-2, or the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is a new virus that we still know very little about. Not only can the virus cause severe pneumonia and lung failure, but it can also cause unique cardiovascular injury. In some patients with COVID-19, the stress from the infection and inflammation causes small heart attacks that can be identified through blood tests. In other patients and for reasons that we don’t understand yet, COVID-19 causes clotting within the blood vessels that can result in heart attacks and strokes.

In addition, the virus can directly attack the heart muscle itself and cause a disease called viral myocarditis. Myocarditis can happen to anyone of any age and it is unpredictable who will become severely ill. Sometimes, the virus causes so much damage to the heart muscle that patients die from rhythm abnormalities or shock because their heart can no longer function.

Sadly, Samantha Hickey died from cardiac shock due to COVID-19 myocarditis. She was an otherwise healthy 45-year-old before becoming infected.

https://www.kivitv.com/news/samantha-hickeys-doctor-speaks-out-about-her-death

Hickey is the first known health care worker in Idaho to die of COVID-19.

 

[russ_watters]

Probably the most distrubing thing about the Phillies/Marlins incident is how it spotlights a known failing in the MLB COVID plan. This was written a month ago:

The parties' 101-page operations manual for 2020 does not address with any specificity how a season would proceed in the event of a Coronavirus outbreak within a team.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...2020-season-plan-play-pandemic-where-go-wrong

There's procedures for mitigating the spread (masks, social distancing, etc), procedures for handling individual players (*flawed, as I'll explain later), but no plan for responding to an outbreak itself. This is something, by the way, my clients have wanted to see from my company before I've been allowed to physically interact with them.

Here's how it went down:

• On Friday, before game 1, the Marlins' starting catcher was placed on the injured list without explanation (privacy reasons for the ambiguity), presumably due to a positive test.
• Sunday, 3 hours before the game, the starting pitcher and 2 others were pulled.
• The Marlins circulated a group text about whether or not to play the game, and pretty much unanimously agreed to play. The Phillies were notified and circulated a similar text.
• The game was played with little additional mitigation noted, save for a star outfielder wearing a mask, who didn't in the previous games.
• Monday, 10 more positive tests, and the night's games were cancelled.
• Today we'll get more results and see the next steps*.

What's striking in this timeline is that there was no automatic protocol in place to decide on action, and no league management decision-making. My company's protocol says that if one person tests positive at an office, the office is immediately shut down and cleaned. If a second tests positive, the site is closed for 14 days. There's no decision-making by individuals and even management's response is scripted. For baseball not to have a plan in place, and to play Sunday's game after circulating a group-text amongst the players is just plain crazy.

*Now for the next steps and the flaw in the individual response: as we all know, the incubation period can be up to two weeks. Baseball's plan does not include quarantining exposed players for more than the time it takes to do two tests in just over 24 hours. Presumably if nobody on the Phillies tests positive today (from tests Sunday and yesterday?), the Phillies will be playing the Yankees tonight, and continue their schedule (I'm not sure what happens with the Marlins). But it is nigh on impossible that anyone in the Phillies organization (this includes team and stadium staff, by the way) exposed this weekend to test positive today as a result. Logic dictates that they all be quarantined for 14 days, but that would destroy the season, so they aren't going to do it.

MLB has a "taxi squad" of [only] three replacement players for each team so they can swap-out individuals who are infected or were exposed, but it can't deal with swapping-out an entire organization.

My gut tells me if nobody gets a positive test today the season will continue uninterrupted except maybe 1 more day of canceled Marlins games, but by the logic most businesses and municipalities are using it should already be cancelled.

 

[StatGuy2000]

A 45-year old nurse practitioner died of complications related to COVID-19. One her attending doctors, Nathan Green, wrote a letter to the community concerning her death in order to dispel misinformation be propagated on social media.https://www.kivitv.com/news/samantha-hickeys-doctor-speaks-out-about-her-death

Hickey is the first known health care worker in Idaho to die of COVID-19.

I'm curious as to what extent the deaths recorded throughout the world due to COVID-19 are actually due to viral myocarditis. And I'm curious if certain individuals have greater predisposition to experience viral myocarditis than other patients.

I also wonder if there are documented cases of other viruses besides SARS-COV-2 causing viral myocarditis.

Update: According to the Mayo Clinic website, myocarditis can be caused by a number of different viruses besides COVID-19, including the commond cold adenovirus, hepatitis B and C, parvovirus (using causing mild rashes in children), and herpes simplex. Numerous bacteria (e.g. staphylococcus, steptococcus), parasites, and fungus can also cause myocarditis.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...r heart,a more general inflammatory condition.

 

[russ_watters]

Sorry for so many posts on this, but I find it a fascinating case study and emblematic of what I consider to be the cultural problems we're up against in the US in dealing with COVID.

My gut tells me if nobody gets a positive test today the season will continue uninterrupted except maybe 1 more day of canceled Marlins games, but by the logic most businesses and municipalities are using it should already be cancelled.

Four more Marlins tested positive, no positive tests yet for the Phillies. Both teams' games for tonight have been cancelled.

The Marlins' options are limited. With half the team testing positive, everyone in the organization has to be considered exposed, and out of commission for 2 weeks, whether sick or under quarantine for the incubation period. If they try to swap-out the sick staff and players for minor league replacements (they might), odds are good they will just keep infecting more people. Either way, the Marlins are going to be not playing or playing non-competitive baseball for the next few weeks.

Now, the Marlins aren't expected to be competitive this year, and that likely weighs-in to the decision by the commissioner of baseball, who doesn't seem to be making any of the decisions right now. The Phillies and Yankees are expected to compete, so shutting either down or replacing them with minor leaguers for 2 weeks would substantially alter the competitive situation in the league. I suspect the Phillies-Yankees series through Thursday will be canceled (thereby protecting the Yankees), but the Phillies may remain in limbo for some time due to the incubation period.

Meanwhile, hockey is set to restart in a bubble in Canada, and multiple tests of everyone in the league have come back with an extraordinary total of zero positive cases.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Sorry for so many posts on this, but I find it a fascinating case study and emblematic of what I consider to be the cultural problems we're up against in the US in dealing with COVID.

Four more Marlins tested positive, no positive tests yet for the Phillies. Both teams' games for tonight have been cancelled.

The Marlins' options are limited. With half the team testing positive, everyone in the organization has to be considered exposed, and out of commission for 2 weeks, whether sick or under quarantine for the incubation period. If they try to swap-out the sick staff and players for minor league replacements (they might), odds are good they will just keep infecting more people. Either way, the Marlins are going to be not playing or playing non-competitive baseball for the next few weeks.

Now, the Marlins aren't expected to be competitive this year, and that likely weighs-in to the decision by the commissioner of baseball, who doesn't seem to be making any of the decisions right now. The Phillies and Yankees are expected to compete, so shutting either down or replacing them with minor leaguers for 2 weeks would substantially alter the competitive situation in the league. I suspect the Phillies-Yankees series through Thursday will be canceled (thereby protecting the Yankees), but the Phillies may remain in limbo for some time due to the incubation period.

Meanwhile, hockey is set to restart in a bubble in Canada, and multiple tests of everyone in the league have come back with an extraordinary total of zero positive cases.

I have heard the news about the NHL resuming in a bubble, and no positive cases among the athletes (I suspect that part of this may be due to the lower cases of COVID-19 in the community in Canada compared to the US).

Given the news about MLB in the US (specifically with respect to the Marlins), I'm curious about what will happen to the upcoming NFL football or NBA basketball season in the US (not to mention other sports leagues, like lacrosse). My suspicions are that all of these will likely be canceled so long as there is widespread community transmission of COVID-19 circulating in much of the US (as is apparently the case at the moment).

Any thoughts from anyone?

 

[BillTre]

Sevaral days ago I posted about the film/ entertainment industry and how they are considering restarting business here and how they might compare to other industries like sports.
Post is here.
It sounds like the film people have it better figured out. Of course they have fewer people (grouped together) to deal with and are not bringing together people from different regions that might have greater rates of infection.

I have had my doubts about how well this was going to work but with all the different sports leagues each with a different approach, it had to get a complete picture of things.
Small groups with more complete isolation and a lot of testing will obviously work better, but I haave my doubts about a league's ability to force people into the necessary isolation.
The NBA might be a good example of this approach, but they are doing it in Florida, which does not seem a good idea.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

In South Korea, the professional baseball league KBO has been playing regular season games since May with no apparent problems (the league would apparently be required to shut down for three weeks if a single player or staffer tests positive for the disease), so it is possible to run a baseball season without creating major Coronavirus transmission events. Rather the issue is most likely with widespread community transmission in the US. This may bode well for the NHL (which will start its postseason this Saturday with teams isolated from the general public in "bubbles" in Edmonton and Toronto). The NBA is also following a "bubble" model for its postseason, isolating teams in Orlando. While Coronavirus cases are high in Florida, strict isolation of teams from the community could allow their postseason tournament to continue without interruption from disease outbreaks (and this would provide a good test of the "bubble" model).

If the MLB continues to have problems with infection among teams, this would not bode well for the NFL or the re-start of any other American sports regular season where players and staff are not isolated from their communities.

 

[ChemAir]

Any thoughts from anyone?

Realize that I am of the mind that the economic closures and coming business failures will be far more detrimental in long term life and health effects than Covid19. Making lots of people poor/broke will cause problems we will have to resolve in the future. Getting statistics on drug OD's, suicides, child abuse, crime, etc. hidden in this situation, will be very difficult to get in the current environment. Of course, we will have to wait for all the dust to settle to see what happened, if the data is available.

If the players want to play, and presumably make money, they will have to deal with exposure, and the clubs and players will have to decide how to mitigate it or more likely, simply accept it. Without the bubble idea, I expect more player infections. Pro leagues are in a very difficult spot, maybe an impossible one.

I do think watching the baseball games seemed a little silly, and mostly unreal, and less interesting than spring training. I'm not sure the energy of an actual crowd can be replicated with fake noise, and viewership is likely down. I don't think the pro league no attendance model is tenable (at least for people my age). It's definitely not going to pay down the mortgages for the hugely expensive properties they use.

If the MLB continues to have problems with infection among teams, this would not bode well for the NFL or the re-start of any other American sports regular season where players and staff are not isolated from their communities.

College sports will be interesting, maybe not in a good way. Players are not "employees" and really can't be kept isolated very easily without agreement and strict compliance. I doubt spread will be controllable in this group. The amount of money currently being floated by colleges, holding their athletic programs in "stasis", that anticipate huge losses is pretty scary.

I have little idea what data is good, bad, incomplete, misrepresented, and I am having a hard time making any decisions or policies based on what I read. I am, instead forced to speak with other business owners, and observe what I can actually see, and decide accordingly.

I have had one employee that was exposed to someone with CV19. When he was tested, I was told CDC guidelines changed, and the clinic that tested my employee wouldn't say he didn't have it (negative), and they wouldn't repeat the test because of the new guidelines. They would only tell me to look at the results, and they would not tell me their conclusions. So I am left trying to read a test result that isn't exactly clear, and not exactly helpful.

Based on concern of other employees (I didn't have a "negative" test for the guy, just "results"), I felt backed into a corner and sent the guy to an occupational clinic for a second test at my cost, roughly a week after the first one, possibly risking lawsuit by the employee because I was requiring something different than the previous clinic told him was CDC required.

As a business owner, I am being forced to read medical charts, and make medical decisions with limited guidance and little good information, and have to make employment decisions based on that, all while attempting to not break HIPAA guidelines. I suspect that with all the legal issues, it should be unsurprising that others (in MLB for instance) are in a spot where they simply have little alternative than just do what they can and wait and see.

We will either have sports with Coronavirus, or extremely limited sports, in my opinion.

 

[Secan]

https://www.healthline.com/health/how-long-does-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Why does the virus have time limit how long they last on surfaces? They don't eat nutrients. How can they starve? Is it not they can become dormant and live again? If you put items inside plastic bag and wait for a week before using them. What happened to the virus?

 

[collinsmark]

https://www.healthline.com/health/how-long-does-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Why does the virus have time limit how long they last on surfaces? They don't eat nutrients. How can they starve? Is it not they can become dormant and live again? If you put items inside plastic bag and wait for a week before using them. What happened to the virus?

Viruses don't eat nutrients outside of their host cells; they simply exist. Unlike cellular based micro-organisms, viruses do not respire; they don't undergo cellular respiration. This is why viruses are on the border of not being alive at all.

Viruses are much, much simpler than cells. A virus has just enough capability to hijack a living cell and make many, many copies of itself using the machinery of its host cell (ultimately killing the host cell in the process). And that's about it. Outside of the cell, the viruses don't do anything. They just exist.

To "kill" a virus quickly (destroy might be a better word here), anything that causes molecular changes will do. That's why soap & water, UV light, sanitizers, intense heat, etc, are good at quickly destroying viruses. To kill a virus slowly, so to speak, just take it out of its ideal conditions and something will destroy it eventually.

A specific type of virus needs specific types of living cells to reproduce. In absence of those cells, the virus merely exists until it breaks down (i.e., gets destroyed) by some other means. These other means could be anything. As a matter of fact, it's difficult to keep a virus from not breaking down over time, since the conditions would have to be just right (temperature, humidity, just the right kind of non-reactive surface, etc). You could keep a virus from breaking down in the long term (outside of living tissue, I mean) in a laboratory environment, but in normal everyday conditions, their time is limited.

 

[Astronuc]

That's why soap & water, UV light, sanitizers, intense heat, etc, are good at destroying viruses.

Basically anything that damages or destroys the outer surface (proteins) of the virus can stop it. UV light (sunlight) can destroy it, as can soap and water, or sanitizers like chlorine bleach solution, alcohols like ethanol and isopropyl alcohol (warning: do not use methanol!), peroxides, or Quaternary ammonium compounds (QACs).

 

[Secan]

Viruses don't eat nutrients outside of their host cells; they simply exist. Unlike cellular based micro-organisms, viruses do not respire; they don't undergo cellular respiration. This is why viruses are on the border of not being alive at all.

Viruses are much, much simpler than cells. A virus has just enough capability to hijack a living cell and make many, many copies of itself using the machinery of its host cell (ultimately killing the host cell in the process). And that's about it. Outside of the cell, the viruses don't do anything. They just exist.

To "kill" a virus quickly (destroy might be a better word here), anything that causes molecular changes will do. That's why soap & water, UV light, sanitizers, intense heat, etc, are good at quickly destroying viruses. To kill a virus slowly, so to speak, just take it out of its ideal conditions and something will destroy it eventually.

A specific type of virus needs specific types of living cells to reproduce. In absence of those cells, the virus merely exists until it breaks down (i.e., gets destroyed) by some other means. These other means could be anything. As a matter of fact, it's difficult to keep a virus from not breaking down over time, since the conditions would have to be just right (temperature, humidity, just the right kind of non-reactive surface, etc). You could keep a virus from breaking down in the long term (outside of living tissue, I mean) in a laboratory environment, but in normal everyday conditions, their time is limited.

I have many faceshields. So instead of washing them off immediately, i put used ones inside plastic bags for 5 days before washing hoping the virusus are less in numbers. So what temperature, humidity (?) or other environment variables can these Covid viruses be maintained? I don't want to inadventently have the environment that just maintains them. Remember we have unknown sources for spikes wordwide. Maybe the virus has adapted to our normal living room environment.

 

[morrobay]

Sevaral days ago I posted about the film/ entertainment industry and how they are considering restarting business here and how they might compare to other industries.

I would say the sports sectors are the most high risk. Besides the traveling and physical environment is the elevated and more forceful breathing during the games.

 

[Astronuc]

I have many faceshields. So instead of washing them off immediately, i put used ones inside plastic bags for 5 days before washing hoping the virusus are less in numbers. So what temperature, humidity (?) or other environment variables can these Covid viruses be maintained? I don't want to inadventently have the environment that just maintains them. Remember we have unknown sources for spikes wordwide. Maybe the virus has adapted to our normal living room environment.

Estimated Surface Decay of SARS-CoV-2 (virus that causes COVID-19)
on surfaces under a range of temperatures and relative humidity
https://www.dhs.gov/science-and-technology/sars-calculator

The higher the temperature and humidity, the shorter the half-life of the virus. Adding a sanitizer such as alcohol, or soap and water, further shortens the half-life of the virus. With respect to peroxide, I heard a presentation on the effectiveness of sanitizers, and the weaker peroxide (~3%) that one can readily buy in a store, e.g., supermarket and pharmacy, is not as effective as industrial peroxide, which is about an order of magnitude more concentrated (20-30%).

The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7132493/

Also - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7308628/

I've used alcohol (combination of ethanol and isopropyl) to wash and reuse masks. One should use a spray bottle for the alcohol, which can be a solution as opposed to pure alcohol. I've also seen recommendations of solutions of peroxide and alcohol, but haven't tried it. Ethanol is volatile, so one should use it in solution with water and/or isopropyl alcohol. Methanol is toxic (and can be absorbed through the skin), so do no use methanol in any form!

Leaving a mask in the sunlight in a hot car would also reduce the half-life of the virus, but the mask might deteriorate. Plastics also deteriorate with sunlight and heat.

Best to wash in alcohol solution and let sit a few days.

 

[Astronuc]

ABC/GMA - 11 a.m.: Florida reports new daily death toll record
In Florida, a record 191 new fatalities were reported in one day, according to data released by the Florida Department of Health Tuesday morning. The previous one-day record was 173 fatalities, reported on July 23.

Coronavirus cases in the state have jumped by 9,230, bringing the total to over 441,900, according to the Department of Health.

Florida has the second-most COVID-19 cases, behind California, and New York is now third in terms of positive cases.

 

[Rive]

i put used ones inside plastic bags for 5 days before washing hoping the virusus are less in numbers.

I don't think this is a good idea. Viruses are just one concern: if you 'park' the (used) items for some time you might get a bunch of bacteria and molds too. Especially if the storage is some enclosed space.

Just like used socks. The longer you store them in the bin the more ... seasoned they are

 

[atyy]

*Now for the next steps and the flaw in the individual response: as we all know, the incubation period can be up to two weeks. Baseball's plan does not include quarantining exposed players for more than the time it takes to do two tests in just over 24 hours. Presumably if nobody on the Phillies tests positive today (from tests Sunday and yesterday?), the Phillies will be playing the Yankees tonight, and continue their schedule (I'm not sure what happens with the Marlins). But it is nigh on impossible that anyone in the Phillies organization (this includes team and stadium staff, by the way) exposed this weekend to test positive today as a result. Logic dictates that they all be quarantined for 14 days, but that would destroy the season, so they aren't going to do it.

But would a Phillies player have come within 2 meters of a Marlins player for more than say 5 minutes? Also, presumably they were outdoors, so that would reduce the risk of transmission. My guess is the Marlins had no safe distancing in the locker room.

Forgive me, I've had the game explained to me multiple times over many years, and have understood it for brief periods in my life (about 1 day after each explanation). Till this day, it looks to me like a game in which nothing ever happens

 

[bhobba]

Realize that I am of the mind that the economic closures and coming business failures will be far more detrimental in long term life and health effects than Covid19. Making lots of people poor/broke will cause problems we will have to resolve in the future. Getting statistics on drug OD's, suicides, child abuse, crime, etc. hidden in this situation, will be very difficult to get in the current environment. Of course, we will have to wait for all the dust to settle to see what happened, if the data is available.

You are not the only one who thinks this. I was watching a discussion panel on this very issue, and a professor of Economics was adamant on this point. What we are doing will have long term economic effects greater than the pandemic and we need a better way. Very good argument.

The counter-argument - not so much an argument against a new approach - but rather the idea of having the least amount of restrictions is not the way to go either as Sweden shows:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

My personal view is we should do what Taiwan did. It has a pretty normal life and virtually no transmission. But there are privacy issues with its approach. We did have a win here in Aus on that in that we were going to have a protest with thousands attending. Last time it happened a link was proven between it and the bad outbreak we now have in Victoria. This time the police was ready. Even though current laws forbid it they went to the trouble of getting a court order outlawing it. Here is what happened:
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/black-lives-matter-sydney-protest-live-updates/live-coverage/0a37f0de48135e874e976aab1f05ec83

So choose your poison - there is no easy answers.

It is interesting the Aboriginal killed in custody that was a big issue with the protesters was because, they stated, he died simply because he wanted a biscuit and they would not give him one. The police claim he was diabetic and his blood sugar was dangerously high - he easily could have died if the police let him eat the biscuit. They want a Royal Commission into it. I personally would give them that Royal Commission so the public can be sure the police acted properly, and things are not always as simple as they seem on the surface.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Buzz Bloom]

warning: do not use methanol

Why not?

 

[Astronuc]

Why not?

Methanol is toxic (and can be absorbed through the skin), so do no use methanol in any form!

Ingestion of methanol may result in blindness, nerve damage, damage or failure of organs, e.g., kidney, and in extreme cases death. Formic acid is directly toxic to the retina, and may lead to blindness.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/methanol-poisoning

Alcohol dehydrogenase oxidizes methanol to formaldehyde, and aldehyde dehydrogenase subsequently oxidizes formaldehyde to formic acid.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK482121/

Effects depend on the quantity of methanol ingested.

 

[russ_watters]

And if the CDCs 0.26% holds, 100% were infected. They're done!
However, it's not that simple. New York imported some of their sick. People outside NYC went to hospitals inside NYC and died there.

Current story in USA Today:

What went wrong during the Northeast's first COVID-19 spike and is the region ready for another?

... New York and New Jersey have gone on to have the most Coronavirus deaths in the nation ...

Infection rates in the Northeast have fallen to record lows in recent weeks even as they have soared to record highs in more than 30 other states, mostly in the South and West.

Now the question is: How well prepared are Northeast states for another spike of COVID-19?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...t-region-second-coronavirus-spike/5526854002/

I think this is a swing and a miss on the premise (but they need something to write about...).

Starting in mid-April, New York's test positivity rate dropped smoothly and exponentially to the 1-2% range by the beginning of June and hasn't budged since. New Jersey's curve wasn't smooth due to awful early testing rates, but it also dropped below 2% by the second week of June and also hasn't budged.

Both states have largely re-opened (NYC just went to "phase 4" on July 20, which isn't quite normal), but I don't believe that New York and New Jersey have uniquely excelled at personal mitigation efforts since April while other states such as PA have experienced a resurgence as they re-opened. Whether it's 25% or nearly everyone who has been exposed, it seems pretty clear to me that NY and NJ have achieved herd immunity, and COVID is basically finished with them.

The implications of this are that we get to see what it looks like to let COVID run wild and then get back to normal quickly, and compare that to, say, Pennsylvania, which I expect will be in a state of partial shutdown for the next 6 months.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The counter-argument - not so much an argument against a new approach - but rather the idea of having the least amount of restrictions is not the way to go either as Sweden shows:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

I think the NYT's...um...slant is showing there.

I've shown data before that Sweden's profile looks pretty much like everybody else's. Yes, their total deaths per capita is higher than Denmark's, but not as high as Belgium's. Or Peru. They sit between Italy and Chile. But more importantly, the shape of the curve deaths vs. time looks like pretty much every other European country. That says after a country is infected, things are more or less ballistic.

I know that's unpopular, but look at the curves. At most, Sweden has a 10% late tail, and some of this - perhaps all - is from areas (like Gavelborg) that peaked after Stockholm.

 

[russ_watters]

But would a Phillies player have come within 2 meters of a Marlins player for more than say 5 minutes? Also, presumably they were outdoors, so that would reduce the risk of transmission.

Probably not/probably correct. I think the transmission risk during the games is probably low, but we'll see. Stadium staff that interacted more with the players would be at higher risk, but bluntly they are easier to replace than players.

My guess is the Marlins had no safe distancing in the locker room.

Or bus or plane. Social distancing is all but inherently impossible when traveling.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The implications of this are that we get to see what it looks like to let COVID run wild and then get back to normal quickly, and compare that to, say, Pennsylvania, which I expect will be in a state of partial shutdown for the next 6 months.

You forgot "while sneering at the rubes in flyover country and making them quarantine." Do they really think New Yorkers are at risk from Alaskans? The death rate per capita is 50x lower in Alaska. Cases in NYC are 2.7% of the population. The case rate - and Alaska has tested a larger fraction of its population than NYS - is 6x smaller. Alaskans who visit New York are more likely to get infected than the other way round.

Yes, they got the case rate down, by having the...um...foresight to infect their nursing homes right away. And that did open up more beds for important people, although I am sure that was just an unintended consequence. Still, maybe this would make a good Star Trek episode: a governor makes a decision costing thousands of lives, and ends up becoming an actor in a traveling Shakespeare company.

 

[russ_watters]

You forgot "while sneering at the rubes in flyover country and making them quarantine."

Nope, I didn't forget, I was just saving the next level analysis for a separate post in hopes I could get people to at least agree to the premise first. There's still an awful lot that people don't want to see/believe about the pandemic, and it isn't just over there to your right.

Contrary to many popular predictions, New York tells us that in general to let COVID run wild:
1. Doesn't overwhelm the medical system and cause a large number of additional/unnecessary deaths.
2. Doesn't itself cause calamitous economic or social consequences.

Ideally the US - and everyone else - would have successfully implemented a mitigation strategy that kept deaths and economic impacts to a minimum, but that hasn't happened, especially in the US. New York and New Jersey had a crappy spring, but moving forward they get to...move forward while most of the rest of the country is choosing a path where:
1. We inflict an economic and social calamity on ourselves for probably at least a year.
2. Most people get exposed anyway.

 

[mfb]

I've shown data before that Sweden's profile looks pretty much like everybody else's.

Their tail of deaths looks much longer than e.g. in Belgium and Germany.
7-day average, excluding the last days as Belgium and Sweden report "deaths on that day" which needs a few days until it's complete. Normalized to have the same area. Norway, Finland and Denmark have so few deaths that it's hard to interpret a shape into them. Someone should update the Wikipedia tables I used for the plot.

Contrary to many popular predictions, New York tells us that in general to let COVID run wild:
1. Doesn't overwhelm the medical system and cause a large number of additional/unnecessary deaths.
2. Doesn't itself cause calamitous economic or social consequences.

New York did not "let it run wild". It just suppressed it weaker than other places.

I don't think we can conclude that they have heard immunity now. The behavior of people in New York certainly changed as reaction to hospitals at their limits, bodies stacked in refrigerator trucks and so on.

 

[PeroK]

Their tail of deaths looks much longer than e.g. in Belgium and Germany.
7-day average, excluding the last days as Belgium and Sweden report "deaths on that day" which needs a few days until it's complete. Normalized to have the same area. Norway, Finland and Denmark have so few deaths that it's hard to interpret a shape into them. Someone should update the Wikipedia tables I used for the plot.

In any case, the UK has more deaths per day now than the rest of Western Europe put together. This is despite having a low case rate for the past five weeks. It's about 65 deaths per day at the moment - and is expected to stay around that for a few weeks to come.

The rest of Western Europe has about 50 deaths per day total. And all of Eastern Europe (except Russia) about the same as the UK.

 

[russ_watters]

New York did not "let it run wild". It just suppressed it weaker than other places.

Not weaker, later. If such measures are accurate, cell phone data indicated NYC had one of the better shutdowns, with well over a 90% reduction in mobility. But by the time they shut down, infections had likely already peaked. The measured peak occurred on April 3, but the shutdown (statewide) occurred on March 23. That 11 day gap is likely fully consumed by incubation time, symptom appearance, test delay, testing ramp, and results lag. In other words, the number of people infected per day almost certainly peaked before the shutdown.

[edit] By contrast, PA shut down on March 21 and our peak occurred on April 19. That's 19 extra days of nearly uncontained exponential growth. PA's bumpy and slow back-side of the curve is explainable by less than perfect controls, as expected.

I don't think we can conclude that they have heard immunity now. The behavior of people in New York certainly changed as reaction to hospitals at their limits, bodies stacked in refrigerator trucks and so on.

Changed from before the pandemic, yes, but it has also clearly changed from what it was during the shutdown. That's what "reopening" is. But I don't think NYC is so cloistered and unified, and the culture so malleable that it could change from what even nearby neighbors are like. I watched the news every day in March and April and saw the reports of conditions in NYC, but my adjacent state is seeing an increase in cases/positives. The governor of New York agrees:

"The only question is how far up our rate goes," Cuomo said in an interview with WAMC radio on Friday[July 10]. "You can't have it all across the country and not come back."

https://abc7ny.com/reopen-new-york-ny-covid-19-coronavirus/6312873/

But who knows, maybe they're now more like Norwegians than Pennsylvanians.

 

[Astronuc]

Not weaker, later.

New York implemented stay-at-home on March 22 effective 8 pm.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-coronavirus-containment-efforts.983707/post-6316586

The first death due to COVID-19 in Dutchess County was March 20. The first positive COVID cases was on March 11. Folks should have been observing social distancing (2m) and wearing masks (or face cover) by then. Currently, in that county, the cumulative COVID-19 cases are 4447 confirmed, 4082 recovered, 212 active cases, 153 deaths. https://dcny.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8905f4428f3148d0bffd50a2f3e4db11 Dutchess County was 7th in terms of case load outside of NY City, then Erie County (Buffalo) blew past them. Erie County now has more than 8400 cases, and 620 deaths (including 593 county residents).

Masks were in short supply during March and April.

From my personal observation, about two-thirds of persons did not wear masks, until it was mandated, and then it was maybe 5-10% did not wear masks.

I had traveled to NY at the end of Feb, so I was paying attention to the spread of coronavirus. It was that weekend when I heard about the first case. By March 5, there were 8 cases in Westchester County (all related to the first case, and all in one extended family), two in NY City, and 1 on Long Island.
https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavi...ases-of-covid-19-in-westchester-officials-say

https://forward.ny.gov/early-warning-monitoring-dashboard

 

[russ_watters]

New York implemented stay-at-home on March 22 effective 8 pm.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-coronavirus-containment-efforts.983707/post-6316586

The first death due to COVID-19 in Dutchess County was March 20. The first positive COVID cases was on March 11. Folks should have been observing social distancing (2m) and wearing masks (or face cover) by then.

I added a comparison to PA for context. Based on the timing of the peak, the shutdown was 19 days later in New York than PA. The first confirmed case in New York was announced on March 1 and and the first death announced on March 14. But testing was practically nonexistent in New York until starting to ramp up around March 17 (1,700 tests that day; 17,000 a week later), so these "first" dates are largely meaningless. It's likely the true first case occurred in January and it circulated - and killed - undetected for more than a six weeks before showing up on radar.
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...-infections-before-first-case-report/2386680/

A technical note on the stay-at-home order timings: PA's order went into effect on March 19, also at 8:00 pm. I count that as March 20 because the day is effectively over already. A large number of people (myself included) had a normal workday on March 19, before going home. That said, I still went to the office on March 20, to pick up some needed items to work from home.

 

[Vanadium 50]

cell phone data indicated NYC had one of the better shutdowns, with well over a 90% reduction in mobility.

But still, two-thirds of the new cases were from people already sheltering in place.

Manhattan has a nighttime density of 66000 people per square mile (daytime is probably at least 2-3 times larger). That means in a 100 foot radius, there are 24 other people. Compare that to Keweenaw County, Michigan, where to get 24 people you need to go out 1.4 miles.

Put another way, for Manhattan, 90% is demonstrably nowhere near enough. Foregoing a trip to the Hamptons makes little difference.

 

[russ_watters]

Foregoing a trip to the Hamptons makes little difference.

Agreed. Also, going to stay with your parents in Pennsylvania so you don't have to quarantine in a 400 square foot apartment probably doesn't show up in those stats, and it isn't great for Pennsylvania.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Both states have largely re-opened (NYC just went to "phase 4" on July 20, which isn't quite normal), but I don't believe that New York and New Jersey have uniquely excelled at personal mitigation efforts since April while other states such as PA have experienced a resurgence as they re-opened. Whether it's 25% or nearly everyone who has been exposed, it seems pretty clear to me that NY and NJ have achieved herd immunity, and COVID is basically finished with them.

Most data available for New York City suggests that the city has not achieved herd immunity.

A study published in JAMA Internal Medicine by CDC researchers measured a seroprevalence rate of only 6.9% in New York City from samples collected in late March.

A non-peer reviewed pre-print that sampled patients at a New York City hospital measured a seroprevalence rate of 19% from samples collected in late April.

A New York Times article from early July reports data from CityMD clinics measuring a 26% seroprevalence rate overall (from tests done late April-late June), though some communities (such as the aptly named neighborhood of Corona in Queens), showed seroprevalence rates as high as 68% which is in the range expected to confer herd immunity.

Having some amount of people with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (and presumably immunity), is likely protective to some extent even if it is not at the rate needed for herd immunity. Likely, the immunity is enough to protect against outbreaks with some level of social distancing (especially if the immunity is concentrated among people like essential workers who are not able to social distance), but immunity is not high enough to allow a complete relaxation of social distancing measures.

It is also worth noting that while the behavior of the disease in New York City and other areas in the Northeast seems like the exception in the US, it is more broadly consistent with the case curves seen in other developed nations. Most of the nations observed a significant spike in cases in March-April, followed by a decline as a result of social distancing measures that has been able to persist despite limited re-opening and lifting of lockdowns. While other developed nations have experienced some localized outbreaks during re-opening, most other developed countries have been able to avoid exponential growth of new cases and keep them at a low level like New York City.

Data from the 1918 influenza pandemic, suggests that cities in the US with stronger responses to the pandemic (i.e. more aggressive government interventions to shutdown the spread of the disease) had stronger economic recoveries after the pandemic was over. The US's failure to contain the disease as well as other developed nations will leave the US in an economically disadvantaged position compared to our main economic competitors in the years to come.

 

[jim mcnamara]

@davenn @bhobba
Histogram of Australian Covid confirmed positive tests from March to July 27. From JHU dashboard.
What happened? Things looked fine, so I stopped checking. A newsfeed about the Victoria PM response and continuing dialog on the new problem, led me to check. Yikes.

 

[russ_watters]

A study published in JAMA Internal Medicine by CDC researchers measured a seroprevalence rate of only 6.9% in New York City from samples collected in late March.

March? It isn't clear to me where the samples came from or how they could hope for a representative sample of the population. If a person was in the midst of a moderately sever case of Covid and locked themselves in their home for 2 weeks to isolate and recuperate, were they sampled? I'd really like to see some current studies of this (I did look but didn't find any).

Most data available for New York City suggests that the city has not achieved herd immunity.

...some communities (such as the aptly named neighborhood of Corona in Queens), showed seroprevalence rates as high as 68% which is in the range expected to confer herd immunity...

Likely, the immunity is enough to protect against outbreaks with some level of social distancing (especially if the immunity is concentrated among people like essential workers who are not able to social distance), but immunity is not high enough to allow a complete relaxation of social distancing measures.

In other words, the herd immunity threshold varies based on on the amount of interaction/mitigation effort in a community. Presumably the 60% threshold I've seen for herd immunity is with exactly zero mitigation efforts. The smoothness of the data says to me that whatever the mitigation vs herd immunity threshold is, the reopening hasn't been enough to even make the needle nudge away from herd immunity at the current mitigation level.

I'm ok with being wrong here. I've suggested what most other people consider an unacceptably draconian mitigation effort to try and stop the disease. Evidently New York doesn't need it. They appear to have a magic bullet and I'd really like to know what it is so people can voluntarily implement it elsewhere.

Data from the 1918 influenza pandemic, suggests that cities in the US with stronger responses to the pandemic (i.e. more aggressive government interventions to shutdown the spread of the disease) had stronger economic recoveries after the pandemic was over.

I'll be interested to read the actual paper (I found it - I'll read it). I'm interested to learn if they separately considered aggressiveness, duration and timing, and what they found of these different response attributes. A brief summary with a scatter plot shows what to me looks like an extremely poor curve fit between employment and death rate. It's nearly vertical in one place and nearly horizontal in another. Not a strong opening line.

The US's failure to contain the disease as well as other developed nations will leave the US in an economically disadvantaged position compared to our main economic competitors in the years to come.

In what way/why/based on what? I actually agree with you on the what, but not the why: The why, to me, is not the failure to contain itself, but the long duration of the containment effort.

Surely it must be logical/obvious that shutting down hard for 2 months is less impactful than shutting down partway for a year? E.G., a restaurant that totally closes for 2 months loses less money than a restaurant that is open at half capacity for a year, right?

Statistical analysis showing correlation is nice, but I'm looking for logical cause and effect to make predictions here. Otherwise, vaguely analyzed data from 100 years ago under a totally different economic situation with a virus that was 10 times as deadly with a medical system that was barely out of the dark ages doesn't seem that compelling to me.

It is also worth noting that while the behavior of the disease in New York City and other areas in the Northeast seems like the exception in the US, it is more broadly consistent with the case curves seen in other developed nations. Most of the nations observed a significant spike in cases in March-April, followed by a decline as a result of social distancing measures that has been able to persist despite limited re-opening and lifting of lockdowns. While other developed nations have experienced some localized outbreaks during re-opening, most other developed countries have been able to avoid exponential growth of new cases and keep them at a low level like New York City.

That seems like a little bit of a bait-and-switch. Can you name a country that had a massive outbreak and had absolutely no measurable increase by now? Yeah, I know that's a tough and specific criteria, but New York is an exceptional case. They went from an exceptionally poor level of containment to an exceptionally good level of containment in the span of a few weeks and have maintained exceptionality through today. I don't know of a country that had such an exceptional and durable about-face, with the possible exception of China itself.

 

[davenn]

@davenn @bhobba
Histogram of Australian Covid confirmed positive tests from March to July 27. From JHU dashboard.
What happened? Things looked fine, so I stopped checking. A newsfeed about the Victoria PM response and continuing dialog on the new problem, led me to check. Yikes.

View attachment 267018

This is what is happening ...

Victoria is the state to the south of me ... and at the moment they are in deep doodoo down that way.

Sadly, here in NSW ( New South Wales) we have also had a bunch of idiots that have no respect for other people
and we have had a bit of a rise in numbers and if not jumped on really quickly, we will end up in Victoria's predicament